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« "Here" and "There" with The Bening | Main | Podcast: The Oscars are coming! How many will 'La La' win? »
Sunday
Feb122017

BAFTA Winners: La La Land, Daniel Blake, and... Lion's Dev Patel!

Dev Patel struggles to find "words words words" when he wins the BAFTA.

Confession: Despite The Film Experience's devout love of awards season, your host does not actually watch the BAFTAs. I gave up years ago when it was clear that they were never going to change their announce-the- winners and then tape-delay-broadcast-highlights-of-show. It's just not pure enough for my spiritual devotion to the holy act of passing out trophies. I can't stomach it.

The winners with commentary (and videos once they're available) follow...

Best film 

  • Arrival
  • I, Daniel Blake
  • La La Land
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight 

La La Land cannot be stopped! It won five BAFTAs. Expect more than five Oscars.

Outstanding British film

  • American Honey
  • Denial
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • I, Daniel Blake
  • Notes on Blindness
  • Under the Shadow

As expected Ken Loach's Palme D'or winner triumphed at the BAFTAs too. 

Director

  • Damien Chazelle - La La Land
  • Tom Ford - Nocturnal Animals
  • Ken Loach - I, Daniel Blake
  • Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
  • Denis Villeneuve - Arrival

Chazelle has got the Oscar locked up, too. Awards voters love projects with a high degree of technical difficulty for directing prizes. He'll become the youngest Best Director winner of all time. He turned 32 last month.

Leading actress 

  • Amy Adams - Arrival
  • Emily Blunt - The Girl on the Train
  • Natalie Portman - Jackie
  • Emma Stone - La La Land
  • Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins 

Stone still has to face the formidable Isabelle Huppert at the Oscars (Elle was ineligible at the BAFTAs) but she's expected to prevail there, too. 

Leading actor

  • Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
  • Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
  • Ryan Gosling - La La Land
  • Jake Gyllenhaal - Nocturnal Animals
  • Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic

With surging Denzel Washington unnominated here (the BAFTAs have never once nominated him) Casey Affleck had no trouble extending his winning streak. 

Supporting actress 

  • Viola Davis - Fences
  • Naomie Harris - Moonlight
  • Nicole Kidman - Lion
  • Hayley Squires - I, Daniel Blake
  • Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea 

Even though BAFTA didn't love Fences (this was its only nomination) Viola still triumphed; she's the most ironclad of locks on Oscar night. We firmly believe that she would have won Best Actress had she campaigned that (correct) way. It's really unfortunate because that would have been so good for the Oscars to finally put that "only one black winner" problem to rest. But we'll have to wait until a powerhouse black actress campaigns in lead for that to happen. 

Supporting actor

  • Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
  • Hugh Grant - Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Dev Patel - Lion
  • Aaron Taylor-Johnson - Nocturnal Animals

People will say that this is because Dev is British but we're not entirely convinced that that theory lines up with BAFTA history. Could Mahershala Ali lose the Oscar? Losing both the Globe and the BAFTA probably indicates that he's not a strong frontrunner despite the brilliance of his performance. That doesn't mean he'll lose the Oscar but it does means he could

Original screenplay 

  • Hell or High Water - Taylor Sheridan
  • I, Daniel Blake - Paul Laverty
  • La La Land - Damien Chazelle
  • Manchester by the Sea - Kenneth Lonergan
  • Moonlight - Barry Jenkins

Will Manchester win this award which its won practically everywhere on Oscar night or will La La Land do a big sweep? We shall see. It lost roughly half of its contests at the BAFTAs despite being the big winner of the night.

Adapted screenplay

  • Arrival - Eric Heisserer
  • Hacksaw Ridge - Robert Schenkkan, Andrew Knight
  • Hidden Figures - Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder
  • Lion - Luke Davies
  • Nocturnal Animals - Tom Ford 

Most pundits believe that Moonlight will win this Oscar but I'm not 100%. It's a much stronger category back in America where Hacksaw Ridge and Nocturnal Animals are out and Fences and Moonlight are in. Screenplay categories sometimes hold semi-surprise winners -- think Precious and Her triumphing over more nominated competition in recent years. 

Outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer

 

  • The Girl with All the Gifts - Mike Carey (writer), Camille Gatin (producer)
  • The Hard Stop - George Amponsah (writer/director/producer), Dionne Walker (writer/producer)
  • Notes on Blindness - Peter Middleton (writer/director/producer), James Spinney (writer/director), Jo-Jo Ellison (producer)
  • The Pass - John Donnelly (writer), Ben A William (director)
  • Under the Shadow - Babak Anvari (writer/director), Emily Leo, Oliver Roskill, Lucan Toh (producers)

Oscar passed on this Iranian British horror movie in the Foreign Film category but it's quite good. Catch our interview with the director and watch the movie on Netflix!

Film not in the English language

  • Dheepan - Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux
  • Julieta - Pedro Almodovar
  • Mustang - Deniz Gamze Erguven, Charles Gillibert
  • Son of Saul - Laszlo Nemes, Gabor Sipos
  • Toni Erdmann - Maren Ade, Janine Jackowski

Last year's Oscar winner took this year's BAFTA (different countries = different release patterns) but another reminder that Toni Erdmann is not necessarily a frontrunner. We are officially predicting The Salesman to win the Oscar, now. 

Documentary

  • The Beatles: Eight Days a Week - The Touring Years
  • The Eagle Huntress
  • Notes on Blindness
  • 13th
  • Weiner

With the TV miniseries OJ Made in America correctly not included in this movie race, we have a new winner: Ava DuVernay's 13th

Animated film

  • Finding Dory
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Moana
  • Zootropolis

This is a big win for Laika's fable. It's clearly in the running for the Oscar as well though Zootopia will still probably prevail.

Original music 

  • Arrival - Johann Johannsson
  • Jackie - Mica Levi
  • La La Land - Justin Hurwitz
  • Lion - Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka
  • Nocturnal Animals - Abel Korzeniowski 

TEXT

Cinematography

  • Arrival - Bradford Young
  • Hell or High Water - Giles Nuttgens
  • La La Land - Linus Sandgren
  • Lion - Greig Fraser
  • Nocturnal Animals - Seamus McGarvey

If you had any doubt that La La Land would win this particular Oscar, doubt no more. If Lion, the ASC winner, couldn't beat it here, it's not going to beat it at the Oscars where La La is presumably even more popular. 

Editing 

  • Arrival - Joe Walker
  • Hacksaw Ridge - John Gilbert
  • La La Land - Tom Cross
  • Manchester by the Sea - Jennifer Lame
  • Nocturnal Animals - Joan Sobel

COLOR US SHOCKED. Hacksaw took this prize from La La Land despite not even having a Best Film nomination with BAFTA. 

Production design 

 

  • Doctor Strange - John Bush, Charles Wood
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - Stuart Craig, Anna Pinnock
  • Hail, Caesar! - Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh
  • La La Land - Sandy Reynolds-Wasco, David Wasco
  • Nocturnal Animals - Shane Valentino, Meg Everist

Another loss for La La Land but this one makes far more British sense. 

Costume design

  • Allied - Joanna Johnston
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - Colleen Atwood
  • Florence Foster Jenkins - Consolata Boyle
  • Jackie - Madeline Fontaine
  • La La Land - Mary Zophres

This race feels tight for the Oscar doesn't it? (The category is identical across the Ocean)

Make-up and hair

  • Doctor Strange - Jeremy Woodhead
  • Florence Foster Jenkins - J Roy Helland, Daniel Phillips
  • Hacksaw Ridge - Shane Thomas
  • Nocturnal Animals - Donald Mowat, Yolanda Toussieng
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - Nominees to be confirmed 

Literally NONE of these films are nominated in Oscar's sister category. And as we just discussed on the podcast none of the Oscar nominees feel like they could win. Hee. (Obviously one of them will.) 

Sound

  • Arrival - Claude La Haye, Bernard Gariepy Strobl, Sylvain Bellemare
  • Deepwater Horizon - Mike Prestwood Smith, Dror Mohar, Wylie Stateman, David Wyman
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - Niv Adiri, Glenn Freemantle, Simon Hayes, Andy Nelson, Ian Tapp
  • Hacksaw Ridge - Peter Grace, Robert Mackenzie, Kevin O'Connell, Andy Wright
  • La La Land - Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Ai-Ling Lee, Steve A Morrow, Andy Nelson 

Another loss for La La Land but Arrival is more than deserving don't you think? But we still think La La Land will win this particular Oscar. Do you?

Special visual effects

  • Arrival - Louis Morin
  • Doctor Strange - Richard Bluff, Stephane Ceretti, Paul Corbould, Jonathan Fawkner
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - Tim Burke, Pablo Grillo, Christian Manz, David Watkins
  • The Jungle Book - Robert Legato, Dan Lemmon, Andrew R. Jones, Adam Valdez
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - Neil Corbould, Hal Hickel, Mohen Leo, John Knoll, Nigel Sumner

Likely to repeat at the Oscar. People are very impressed with those CG animals. 

British short animation

The making of 'A Love Story' from Kal Gad on Vimeo.

 

  • The Alan Dimension - Jac Clinch, Jonathan Harbottle, Millie Marsh
  • A Love Story - Khaled Gad, Anushka Kishani Naanayakkara, Elena Ruscombe-King
  • Tough - Jennifer Zheng 

British short film


  • Consumed - Richard John Seymour
  • Home - Shpat Deda, Afolabi Kuti, Daniel Mulloy, Scott O'Donnell
  • Mouth of Hell - Bart Gavigan, Samir Mehanovic, Ailie Smith, Michael Wilson
  • The Party - Farah Abushwesha, Emmet Fleming, Andrea Harkin, Conor MacNeill
  • Standby - Charlotte Regan, Jack Hannon

The winning short, centering around the refugee crisis and shot in three different countries, stars Jack O'Connell and Holiday Grainger. 

EE Rising Star award (voted for by the public)

  • Laia Costa
  • Lucas Hedges
  • Tom Holland
  • Ruth Negga
  • Anya Taylor-Joy

The world has always and probably will always love Spider-Man. Tom Holland is also adorable. But these five sure seem like they have bright futures. For those who haven't been paying attention Laia Costa (who has the lowest profile among these nominees) headlined that wonderful international escalating night gone wrong thriller Victoria last year -- the one that's composed of one continuous shot. She's wonderful in it. Jose interviewed her right here

Were you happy with the BAFTA results or do you demand a recount?

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Reader Comments (53)

Denzel has NEVER been nominated for a BAFTA? Baffling.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterCash

Interesting fact. Aside from Streep winning for playing a Brit in a British funded film made in Britain, there has never been a Bafta acting line up that didnt feature a Brit.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterDenny

Even though BAFTA didn't love Fences (this was its only nomination) Viola still triumphed; she's the most ironclad of locks on Oscar night. We firmly believe that she would have won Best Actress had she campaigned that (correct) way. It's really unfortunate because that would have been so good for the Oscars to finally put that "only one black winner" problem to rest. But we'll have to wait until a powerhouse black actress campaigns in lead for that to happen.

I believe Davis wouldn't have swept in Best Actress. Foreign award bodies aren't invested in her as their stateside counterparts. Her 2016 Emmy lost meant a dress rehearsal for losing to the young white girl after losing to Streep when she was a competitive runner up in Best Actress. I never thought she'd win for Doubt considering she was a packaged deal with Streep. And it was Winslet's year. Davis securing further Academy nods is the next hurdle for her to conquer.

Most pundits believe that Moonlight will win this Oscar but I'm not 100%. It's a much stronger category back in America where Hacksaw Ridge and Nocturnal Animals are out and Fences and Moonlight are in. Screenplay categories sometimes hold semi-surprise winners -- think Precious and Her triumphing over more nominated competition in recent years.

Precious screenplay win was a surprise, but in hindsight it made sense. It was extremely popular with the Academy, and the Up in the Air duo were at odds. Also, Lee Daniels made sure the audience knew the movie was based on a novel by Sapphire. Her's win is not a shocker at all. Consolation prize for a writer-directors (auteur) who are never winning in the director category.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

/3rtful -- i never said she would have swept foreign awards. The only thing that matters in the end is the Oscar. She would have beat Emma Stone for Best Actress.so disappointed she didn't go for it.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterNATHANIEL R

I am sad that Moonlight missed out on an award here. Hopefully AMPAS will rectify the situation.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterEz

In other news, Meryl Streep received an award from Human Rights Campaign last night in NYC. She responded to T**** beautifully and to her status as 'over-rated' actress. She is a marvel!

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered Commenterbrandz

Thank you Bafta voters for spreading the wealth. I love La La Land, but five is enough.

Now I'm sad Naomie Harris lost. That woman is fierce. Meryl, girl, give her a shout-out.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

/3rtful: 1. Um...even if Streep hadn't been nominated in 08, Davis probably STILL would have been. Davis STEAMROLLED Streep in their big scene together. It was probably close between Cruz and Davis that year. 2. No understanding of chronology. (How can something that happened in 2016 be a "dress rehearsal" for something that happened in 2012?) 3. Even if we accept that, Annalise Keating is NOT a multiple win role, and Maslany was doing something deserving of at least ONE statue regardless of ethnic background. 4. Agreed that Precious and Her aren't especially "shocking" choices.
Nat: Not sure I'd agree that the Adapted Screenplay category is that much stronger. I always look with an eye of suspicion on stage play adaptations in the ADAPTED Screenplay category. (Beasts of the Southern Wild is just as suspicious as Ides of March, because there's always the question of "how much of this job was just re-formatting.") Here's my heirarchy, bottom to top. How EVERY writer isn't working from something similar when voting on "ADAPTED" Screenplay is beyond me:

7. Stage plays
6. Movies plumbing from modern, decompressed, comic books
5. Pulp Thriller Novels
4. Remakes or Sequels, in general
3. Movies plumbing from old-school, pre-decompression, comic books
2. Consciously literary novels or short stories
1. Over-riding all of those, we have those movies made of unfinished (Lady Susan) or BAD work (like Marvel's Civil War event). My guess of my Top 12 for Adapted Screenplay (note: I'd also HEAVILY advise giving True Stories their own category. Why? For a few reasons, but most pertinently because you never have to worry about "the plot-hole question", like you do in writing fictional material.):

Ballot:

Love & Friendship
Captain America: Civil War
The Handmaiden
Arrival
Elle
Finalists: A Bigger Splash, Hunt for the Wilderpeople
Semi-Finalists: Deadpool, A Bigger Splash, Pride & Prejudice With Zombies, The BFG, Star Trek Beyond

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterVolvagia

The same intuition that lead me to correctly predict Cotillard and Swinton is telling me Huppert is triumphing.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterRoger

Volvagia, I believe 3rtful is comparing her 2016 loss at the Emmys to a potential best actress loss in 2017 (both to young women).

Both Ides of March and Beasts of the Southern Wild are reworked for the screen - I don't think either play was particularly good though.

"How EVERY writer isn't working from something similar when voting on "ADAPTED" Screenplay is beyond me:"

Is it really? I don't think I understand you. If you're asserting that "degree of difficulty" matters in adaptation discussions, then I agree. If you're asserting that the hierarchy you present is what every writer should be working from and "it's beyond you" if they aren't... well, don't think I have anything I can say to that.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterArkaan

Davis did not steamroll anyone. It's called acting together not solo brute force.

Dev is a surprise but maybe a British colony vote.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterTom Ford

BAFTAs are done, which means that unless someone manages to get a DUI or say or do something amazingly stupid between now and when Oscar voting closes, we’ve gotten all the intel we’re ever gonna get.

Since this is the last bit of prognosticating I’m going to be doing this year, I wanna add this: I love this site. This Awards season has been a great ride, and props to Nathaniel and his entire team of contributors for providing thorough, interesting and often illuminating coverage.

Final conclusions:

At this point, there’s very little to say about Picture, Director and Supporting Actress. That being the case, I abstain – courteously. We know exactly what’s going to happen. The discussion portion of this program is over.

Original screenplay is a tug-of-war, but a tug-of-war where one of the participants has a clear advantage. To me, it feels like a choice between eating your spinach or going for the ice cream. Voters know what they should do, and have to suppress the urge to do what they want to do. I expect they will probably listen to their mothers, and opt for Manchester over La La Land. Which is fine, even though you know that deep down they still scream for ice cream.

Good on Lion, although adapted screenplay will still probably be Moonlight at The Oscars.

I was at a disadvantage having seen Moonlight after Ali became the consensus choice with the critics. While I thought he was very good, I was expecting more. The actor is an incredibly magnetic presence, and handles the dinner table scene beautifully, but it is, in truth, a very minor role with very little screen time. I actually think the HFPA and BAFTA results could be a reflection of this, although the difference is going to be the speech Ali gave accepting the SAG trophy. For that alone, he will get his Oscar, although it wouldn’t completely shock me to see Patel get the upset.

Stone is clearly the heavy favorite in her derby, even though Portman and Huppert have passionate support. I happen to love Stone in general, and particularly in La La Land, and it feels as though we’re due for another “Charm Offensive” victory in this category, since it seems to happen at 20 year intervals. Normally, Best Actress will go to someone giving us Drama with a Capital D – a guided tour through various states of pain, suffering and assorted tragedies, complete with the tearing of hair, rending of garments, etc. Every so often, someone will win for lighter fare, because they manage to disarm us with idiosyncratic charm, quirky charisma and making us fall in love with them. It’s usually a young actress experiencing a breakthrough while capturing the public imagination in the process - they radiate stardust, capture our hearts and we all capitulate. Audrey Hepburn did it with Roman Holiday, Diane Keaton did it in Annie Hall, and while I wasn’t a fan, Paltrow’s win in SIL probably belongs in the same category. Not coincidentally, two of the three appeared in Best Picture winners.

Whether you love her or hate her, no one can deny that Emma Stone is having That Kind of a Moment. While I don’t think she and Gosling are the best in their respective categories – my votes would probably go to Huppert and Mortensen – there is nothing quite so exhilarating as watching people with star quality to burn and chemistry you can’t bottle step onto that screen and turn on the magic…and Jesus Christ, are those kids turning it on. Portman’s devotees in particular – the fiercest Stone detractors out there, I’m finding – are not very happy. I often wish there were a separate category for Best Impersonation or Vocal/Physical Transformation, since that’s always going to be the end-all-and-be-all as far as some are concerned when judging greatness in acting. When the revolution comes, y’all can throw the complete works of Cary Grant, Liv Ullmann and Paul Newman on a bonfire and watch La Vie en Rose on a loop for the rest of your days – until then, better luck next time.

I’m also given to wish that The Academy would release exit polling numbers or stats after the voting is over so we could see how it all breaks down among various demographics; this is never going to happen, but damn, it would be telling. What I’m finding within my own social circles is how vehemently opposed to the notion of Affleck getting an Oscar many of my female friends are, and the counter-reaction of many of my male friends, who are angered by what they perceive as a kneejerk response. This is obviously all part of a much larger debate that doesn’t need to be rehashed for these purposes, but my guess would be that there will be a real disconnect between how men mark their ballots, vs. what women do. I’d also be interested to know how the vote broke down by race, which has been a component of the conversation as well because of the parallel (but unequally treated) circumstances surrounding Nate Parker. I don’t honestly know how it will play out, although it may ultimately be worth noting that a 2016 LA Times study, published before The Academy’s proposed efforts to bring more diversity to its membership took effect, showed that The Academy voting membership was 91% white and 76% male. I am predicting a narrow win for Casey Affleck, although I don’t base it on those stats alone – I think, at the end of the day, voters will vote for the performance they consider the best, and not on any of the noise surrounding the proceedings.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJosh R

I never said she would have swept foreign awards. The only thing that matters in the end is the Oscar. She would have beat Emma Stone for Best Actress.so disappointed she didn't go for it.

She's shell shocked. Can you blame her? The Globes nominate her only to ignore her when choosing a winner. Her speech there was very telling of how they possibly receive her as not the warmest presence to cozy with. (Which explains why Katharine Hepburn and Frances McDormand never won a Globe!) I agree she could beat Stone, but the wait for another nonwhite actress to win Lead at the Oscars is a ways away. Also, BAFTA has yet to anoint their first nonwhite winner in their Best Actress category. And Cannes, doesn't do the black actress thing at all. Progress for nonwhite female talent is suffocatingly slow.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

The Viola Davis issue is frustrating for the reasons you've outlined - I also thing she would have won as a lead - but also because her winning in the wrong category also will help to perpetuate the practice of category fraud. This will be the second year running that the Oscar for Supporting Actress has been given to a lead - there will be more to follow, now that people see that the ruse works, and that the Academy won't call them on it. I suspect we're heading to a place where the majority of the performances nominated in the supporting categories are not supporting at all, and the chances of actors with limited screen time of even being nominated are significantly diminished. Which is lame.

February 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJosh R

Who is throwing Paul Newman movies in a fire? Never!

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJono

Josh R--I love your thoughtful commentary!

Since it seems like she is on the verge of winning an Oscar--and therefore on the verge of an inevitable backlash--I feel inclined to stick up for Emma Stone (not that she needs it). She has charisma to burn in a way that is rare and screams "movie star!" She's also extremely present onscreen and has exceptional comic timing. She's just delightfully funny in a very un-forced and somewhat offbeat way, and I think that's a wonderful and under-valued quality in actors. If she wins, I agree it would be in the tradition of a Diane Keaton win--and I think that's kind of awesome. Isabelle Huppert would probably be my first choice as well, but I'd be all for Stone winning. La La Land is a beautiful and very re-watchable film that I think will age incredibly well, and she is terrific in it.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

Viola would have won lead. Viola is very likely to win a lead statue at some point anyway.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterHenry

Glad it was a spread the wealth kind of night, but also loved that La La Land still walked away the clear victor. I did wish someone else would've won Actor other than Affleck to make that category more dynamic. Also thought if there was one award that Viola COULD HAVE lost, it would've been this one so her winning this just confirms the (pleasant) inevitability of her Oscar win.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterRyan T.

Fun fact @Ryan T – Viola shares an identical BAFTA record with Jennifer Lawrence.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

/3rtful - you're trying too hard to make a case against Viola lol. Yes, the industry and the world in general is incredibly racist. But Viola Davis is one of those actors that has finally reached the level of respect that it steps outside the realm of race. I mean, she's the first black actress ever to be nominated thrice. Not to mention, this year shows a lot of effort on the Academy's part to be more inclusive. Octavia Spencer joined Whoopi and Viola as the only black women to be nominated more than once (and the only one to be nominated after previously winning). Even Oprah couldn't join that club when she was snubbed for The Butler.

Also, she's the first black woman to win drama actress at the Emmys. Sure, she lost the next year like you mentioned. But I bet if she was on a show that was nominated for best drama series (aka a show that's actually good) that wouldn't be the case. Also keep in mind that it was the last Emmys that they changed up the voting process, which allowed for different winners in many categories, not just that one.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterPhilip H.

@Philip H

Viola chose the path of least resistance to secure her first Oscar win. And she swept precursors who are typically cold to her The Globes and BAFTA. While Critics Choice and SAG were always embracing. She'll triple crown and become only the second nonwhite actress to do so after Moreno.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

An Oscar is an Oscar, and I'm sure Viola will be happy to get one regardless of the prefix on the statuette. I don't subscribe to the theory that she'll feel in any way bitter that she didn't campaign as a lead, partially because that trophy will go to someone who is both a colleague and a friend.

It should be noted that it was NOT The Academy that made the decision to campaign Viola Davis in the supporting category - that decision was made by the the studio, the production company, and Ms. Davis herself.

Also worth noting is the fact that 3 of the past 5 winners for Lead Actress have been women over 40. Two were, in fact, women over 50.

I think we all need to be a little careful about the language we use when we talk about this, because any suggestion that one actress is going to win an Award solely on the basis of her race or her age, while another has been demoted to a lesser category because of hers, is not only a false narrative - it is disrespectful and denigrating to both women.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJosh R

@Josh R

History and systematic pathology is on my side.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

Is Viola a race horse? These analogies are killing me.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterMarie

The actor is an incredibly magnetic presence, and handles the dinner table scene beautifully, but it is, in truth, a very minor role with very little screen time.

The definition of many supporting roles, but in this age of the category fraud no guarantee of a nomination or a win.

Every so often, someone will win for lighter fare, because they manage to disarm us with idiosyncratic charm, quirky charisma and making us fall in love with them.

Isabelle Huppert. Elle.
(Although I wouldn't necessarily describe any of this year's nominees as "lighter fare," I'd rank them from "darkest" to "lightest" as follows: Jackie > Loving > Florence Foster Jenkins > Elle > La La Land.)

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

Paul, did you just call Elle "lighter fare"? :-)

That said, if Huppert does upset - which I don't think she will - it will be partially driven by the narrative that she's Isabelle Freaking Huppert. And amen to that.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterRobUK

@ RobUK

Well, she doesn't a) die of cancer, b) spend a great deal of the movie in jail, c) get her husband's brains splattered on her or d) lose the love of her life, and the film does have a happy ending, so there's that. ;-)

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

Viola has already reached the high level of respect that will follow her for the rest of her career. She will be looking at at least 8 career noms. She good y'all.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterLeslie

"The Viola Davis issue is frustrating for the reasons you've outlined - I also think she would have won as a lead - but also because her winning in the wrong category also will help to perpetuate the practice of category fraud. This will be the second year running that the Oscar for Supporting Actress has been given to a lead"
Yeah, but Davis and Vikander are clearly supporting actresses in their movies so they won where the should (though I still think that Williams is better than Davis).

Patel - the weakest of the nominated five.
Stone - probably the same (I haven't seen Blunt).

What were they thinking???

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterSomeone

Patel was excellent in Lion but again he was the advantage of being the lead of his film for a good chunk. Its hard for supporting actors to get traction and I think that's why Ali is venerable at the Oscars. I can see a surprise winner in that category, maybe Shannon who is in Nocturnal Animals for longer chunks of screen time (though he is definitely supporting).

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterRami

"Denzel has NEVER been nominated for a BAFTA? Baffling."

It's not that baffling when you realise BAFTA is an flat-out racist organisation. Don't let the the wins of an unstoppable frontrunner (Viola) and a ethinic Minority British man (Patel) fool you. They avoid acknowledging black American males as much as they can. Never nominated Denzel. Never nominated Morgan Freeman. They did once nominate Eddie Murphy for voicing a Donkey in Shrek though....

Who the fuck knows what racist hang-ups BAFTA voters have with black American men (they clearly didn't give a shit about Moonlight). They've only nominated 3 black men in the Best Actor category in the last 50 years, and one of them was British (Chiwitel Ejiofor in 12 Years A Slave). Apparently, black men aren't very good lead actors (unless they are unstoppable frontrunners like Foxx in Ray or Whitaker in Last KIng Of Scotland). Embarassing.

So yeah....don't really know why anyone takes this parochial, racist British shitfest seriously.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterRobbie

The Acting winners speeches were awful,Viola's was the worst,she needed a script desperatley.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterMARKGORDONUK

I just saw LION finally last night and while I like Dev Patel and think he's very handsome, he is not a particularly strong actor. He relies way too much on hair acting (and yes, he has one fine head of hair). In his scenes w/ Nicole Kidman he just could not hold a candle to her (I tthought she was fantastic). I really hope Ali wins the Oscar. His role is small but memorable, and also it is truly supporting. Patel is pretty much the lead in his film, though he admittedly is absent for the first chunk.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterRob

Um, 3rtful, Viola Davis won an Emmy in 2015.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

It's not that baffling when you realise BAFTA is an flat-out racist organisation. Don't let the the wins of an unstoppable frontrunner (Viola) and a ethinic Minority British man (Patel) fool you. They avoid acknowledging black American males as much as they can. Never nominated Denzel. Never nominated Morgan Freeman. They did once nominate Eddie Murphy for voicing a Donkey in Shrek though....
"Who the fuck knows what racist hang-ups BAFTA voters have with black American men (they clearly didn't give a shit about Moonlight). They've only nominated 3 black men in the Best Actor category in the last 50 years, and one of them was British (Chiwitel Ejiofor in 12 Years A Slave). Apparently, black men aren't very good lead actors (unless they are unstoppable frontrunners like Foxx in Ray or Whitaker in Last KIng Of Scotland). Embarassing.

So yeah....don't really know why anyone takes this parochial, racist British shitfest seriously."

You are extremely stupid, aren't you?
In the last 15 years they rewarded Chiwetel Ejiofor, Forrest Whitaker, Jamie Foxx, Barkhad Abdi, Thandie Newton, Viola Davis, Dev Patel, Jennifer Hudson, Mo'Nique, Octavia Spencer. How can anybody say that they are racist?

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterSomeone

MARKGORDONUK, seconded in general about *all* of the speeches being terrible (bar Tom Holland who was really charming and graciously thanking his acting coaches).

Way too much Brexit and Trump talk, so boring. Emma Stone's attempt to add politics as an afterthought was embarrassing, she immediately retraced her steps when she didn't get a Streep-style reception.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterEmma

I love Viola and Denzel, but Fences was too shout-y for me. A lot of shouting ...

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterCharlieG

The politics talk put me & the b/f off so much so we just wished they'd all shut up,it's about films leave the Trump talk to politicians,Stone forgot what exactly she was going to say just an excuse at virtue siganalling,Viola was totally unprepared like the lockiest of locks was not expecting it.

Tom Holland gave the only speech that meant something to someone sat at home,charming..

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterMARKGORDONUK

Dev's win is kinda nice imo, given it is usual for them to honor one of their own (but how this doesn't happen for Rosamund Pike still enrages me)
The Oscar goes to Casey from the beginning. idk why you guys Denzel can steal it, Johnny Depp won SAG for pirates of carribean of all things and he sure didn't win the golden guy.
Still hoping for a Huppert upset. Gurl if Elle is lighter fare for you then what the hell is the darkest? Lmao Stone will probably pull a J-Law tho. La Huppert 4eva!

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterCraver

Yup, exactly, and a lot of the speeches were so self-congratulatory, along the lines of 'the world is a dark place... good thing I made this fabulous film to make all of your lives better!'

ohmigosh, I laughed out loud when Kenneth Lonergan started his speech with 'my daughter woke me up the morning Trump won in tears'. Cool story bro. And this relates to your writing of MBTS, how?

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterEmma

Craver, I agree with you, it's nice for BAFTA to honour their own now and then(and throw curveballs), but if they were doing that, they should've awarded Rosamund! Also, I know shes Irish (but I consider Irish closer to Britain than America), but I really wish BAFTA had not been sheep and given the win to Saoirse Ronan last year, too.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterEmma

"You are extremely stupid, aren't you?
In the last 15 years they rewarded Chiwetel Ejiofor, Forrest Whitaker, Jamie Foxx, Barkhad Abdi, Thandie Newton, Viola Davis, Dev Patel, Jennifer Hudson, Mo'Nique, Octavia Spencer. How can anybody say that they are racist"

You mean in the last last 15 years since they switched their show to before the oscars so they could gain some relevance as a precursor, they've started awarding some steamrolling, undeniable black Oscar frontrunners and a couple of black/brown Brits? How progressive.

How stupid are you? Their schtick is transparent. Before they tried to predict the Oscars, you could barely count their black winners on one hand.

They aren't trying to be super-obvious about it like the Ku-Klux Klan. But I stand by my assertion that they are fucking racist as hell. If you are sweeping in America (Foxx, Whitaker, Davis, Hudson, Monique), then you stand a decent chance of winning a BAFTA, because, they don't want to look too obvious. Abdi is an outlier, but he was also a hard lucky story that will never be hear from again (unlike Denzel fucking Washington or Morgan fucking Freeman).

Oh, and BAFTA recently introduced new diversity rules for British films to be eligible for the awards. Because their own fucking leadership know that much of their membership is racist, so are trying to force these idiots to acknowledge ore diverse British movies. It's comical when people defend BAFTA's racism, when even they have flat out admitted they are racist.

Anyway, BAFTA definitely know how shitty they look. Denzel winning a 3rd Oscar without ever having been deemed worthy enough to be nominated by those idiots, will further dent whatever credibility they have left.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterRobbie

I don't know if calling BAFTA's votership racist is going too far, but I do think it was extremely sketchy that they awarded Jennifer Lawrence for carving up a slice of ham over Lupita Nyongo's devastating performance in 2014.

I was genuinely losing sleep that year because I was terrified Jlaw would win her second Oscar at Lupita's expense because of BAFTA's awful decision.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterEmma

Looking at that Editing victory-is it possible that Hacksaw is stronger than we expect? Could it win the Sound categories on Oscar night? I mean, the Kevin O'Connell angle couldn't hurt there, right?

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJohn T

"Who is throwing Paul Newman movies in a fire? Never!"

Natalie Portman fans apparently. I love having others speak for us - and then lecture others to be careful with their language.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

I continue to be annoyed by how people think that Best Adapted Screenplay means the piece of writing that's the best adaptation of an original source, rather than the best script that happens to be an adaptation. Just like Best Original Screenplay is the best script that wasn't based on something else and not simply the *most original*... otherwise The Lobster would be sure to win, or Charlie Kauffman in all his nominations!

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterCarlos

In less than clear supporting races, BAFTA has actually been the most reliable predictor. Alan Arkin, Tilda Swinton, Christoph Waltz (in 2012). I still think Ali will win, but Dev Patel is a real threat now.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterEdwin

Edwin, that's a very good point. Mark Rylance last year is another example.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterEmma

I think La La Land will have a big haul, but not historic big. I predict 8 awards: Pic, Director, Actress, Cinematography, Song, Score, PD and Mixing. I think it loses Actor (natch), Editing (to Hacksaw or Arrival), Screenplay (MBTS), Costume (Jackie) and Sound Editing (again Hacksaw or Arrival).

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterSawyer

Emma I love you as long as your surname is not Stone.

February 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterMARKGORDONUK

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