Best Actress: The Shape of Sally. The Mouth on Frances.
Wednesday, September 20, 2017 at 4:00PM by Nathaniel R
Sally says "Hi!" (I apologize profusively that my camera cut off her cute wave to all of you via this TIFF photo)It's getting hot up in the Best Actress race. The fall festivals have thrust a dozen or so women toward potential red carpet glory but how will time and general reviews and audience response and campaigning sort them out? It's nail-biting! At least until the first awards are handed out at which point things always narrow down too quickly.
But for now -- and it's early still (our annual refrain) -- it's appearing like it might be a battle between Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water (which has won consistently strong reviews and the Golden Lion in Venice) and Frances McDormand who stars in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, the surprise winner of the Oscar bellwether "audience award" at TIFF. It's fun to think about the performances in tandem since Sally plays a literally mute woman and Frances a foul mouthed woman who will not be silenced...
Beyond Sally & Frances, though it's anyone's guess. I'd call about 8 women strongly even at this point in terms of probability. Common wisdom says Streep (it always says Streep) but that's all just "on paper" since no one has seen as much as a clip. Common wisdom might also say Judi Dench who is another "default" choice for AMPAS voters (i.e. automatically a contender unless the film or role or immense competition says otherwise).
If the buzz shifts from either Sally or Frances as potential winners we might have a "let's finally coronate _____" style Oscar season. The two most viable options in that regard are 4 time nominee (shoulda been 6 time nominee / prev winner) Annette Bening as the dying semi-delusional former star and Oscar winner Gloria Grahame in Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool or 6 time nominee (shouda been previous winner) Glenn Close as The Wife (reviewed). The latter still doesn't have a distributor so we could be looking at a 2018 run. It's a pity that the film wasn't immediately snatched up this past week for release or we'd be looking at a sure thing (at least for a nomination). So for now Bening has the better shot since she's reteamed with Sony Pictures Classics who know how to campaign; they were behind her Oscar run on Being Julia (2004).
If I hear FILM STARS... compared to MY WEEK WITH MARILYN one more time. (sigh). This film is sooooo much better than that one!
Two more major nomination possibilities include a victory lap for Emma Stone or a possibly huge Kate Winslet star turn in the latest Woody Allen picture. And that's not even counting the longer shots for Best Actress. I count a lot of possibilities for the coveted five seats. The charts for Actress, Picture and Director are now updated (more charts to come). So curious to see where this goes, aren't you?
Reader Comments (47)
I'm most curious about Wonder Wheel and Winslet. Seems like it could go either way but really loved her Oscar "comeback" in Steve Jobs a few years back.
I'm devastated at the potential non distribution of the wife ..... close Likeyou said is a lock for a nomination, but how likely is it now she will get distribution... is it that bad it hasn't happened yet ?
Oh, one other thing: with so many new members in the Academy, I'm hopeful that the nominees will be more diverse, but I wonder if the Glenn Closes and Annette Benings of the world won't have the same "overdue" appeal with younger/foreign voters who aren't as familiar with their snubs and near-misses from the 80s/90s
Thw campaign is beginning: http://deadline.com/2017/09/kate-winslet-actors-inspiration-award-sag-aftra-foundation-2017-1202169613/
So you agree Nathaniel?
Nat, I can't wait to read your "Film Stars" review, I'm totally #TeamBening this year!
I can't even with best actress this year - what a potential lineup. Delighted they're holding Emma Thompson till 2018 - I pray that they hold Close off till then too, I want Hawkins to win but if Bening or Close get another nomination - I'll be very torn.
PS: I really can't see Dench nominated for such a mediocre movie, and I'm not so confident about Winslet (WW seems to be An ensemble movie). Plus, why that "qualifying" under Bening's name in your chart?
Rebecca Hall should probably be here. The film AND the performance have drawn pretty good reviews (unlike Victoria and Abdul, which has only drawn great reviews for Dench), WWII biopic, pseudo nomination for Wonder Woman in a major category, a subject that's fun but not lightweight (coughBattleoftheSexesisprobablyfeatherweightcough) and almost all years in this category have at least one first timer, even before their concerted attempt at injecting youth and diversity.
I did a bit of research and the history of the Oscars and 3 Actresses winning a second in 1 decade has never happened,si Winlset winning seems unsure but I hvae mejor faith in her this year,I hope that made sense to you all.
I still think Close's film will get a deal and if so Kate,Sally,Frances,Meryl join her.
Streep really does take up space just because. I wish the actress races were barren this year. Makes it easier to see who has the potential to become a juggernaut in a shallow pool.
Stefano -- re: the qualifying. The release date seems to still be TBA... I hope they're not saving it for the last week of December. If they are, I'll drop Bening from the predictions because I dont think that will be enough time for it.
Volvagia -- i love Rebecca Hall but I cant see that movie going for Oscar really. Glad people like it though. As for Battle of the Sexes. Emma Stone is a major threat. She's a huge star, just won, and people seem to be loving the performance (of a very famous person who is also campaigning with her and we know how that can go!)
3rtful -- why on earth would you want the actress race to be barren? It's so exciting that it's bursting with possibility
Hawkins & McDormand seem like locks for now.
Bening or Close need to win this. I don't accept other winners this year.
I'm hoping Dench sits this out, the movie is largely described as seriously mediocre.
"mother!" is sort of trashed by audiences so I'm guessing Lawrence is also sitting this year out, which is great. We have our long-awaited J Law break.
It'd be great if Stone doesn't get nominated. The success of the movie doesn't depend on the Oscars, considering it's being released now. Also, she's last year's BA.
I'll be happy with a Chastain nom (and maybe a win) since she's been snubbed in the past.
I'm excited about Streep's movie because I love watching her act, and I'll be happy to see her not get a nomination (unless it's something extraordinary) because the nomination thing is already seriously boring. She needs another groundbreaking role (think Prada) and a 4th win. Not 5 more rather typical Streep roles that secure nods and 0 wins.
I'm guessing Winslet is at least very good in Wonder Wheel, or that's what people say. I can't wait to see the movie but I don't think she needs this nomination. Spread the wealth!
Rooney Mara's Una gets a baity NY and LA release date. Makes you wonder! People said wonderful things about her performance last year.
Nat: Not necessarily top 5 secure yet, but watched. Even slotting her in at 11-15, for now, would make sense.
Nat, Film Stars in coming out on December 15 in the US, one month after its UK release... could you see a Bening win happening, considering how great is SPC at campaigning?
Nat please tell me Three Billboards isn't McDormand doing McDormand like Dench is doing Dench in V& A.
I'd have Chastain higher given the positive reaction for her film and performance and it's certainly going to get a push. Commercial movies don't necessarily get in BP but she seems to be the face of the whole thing. Still wouldn't include her in the predicted lineup though.
Would kick out Bening from the lineup, whose film's and performance's reception was mutedly positive. Unexciting. You can't win like that, and when you're the only prospect of your film it doesn't even look like a certainty that she'll get in. My guess is her and Dench are vying for a similar crowd of voters, and Dench might have the upper hand actually.
Someone needs to get on The Wife like asap. It feels like 2014 all over again. Mostly previous winners, so with a strong performance from an overdue actress everything lines up for her immediately as the frontrunner.
Other than that, given that McDormand doesn't campaign anymore, Winslet does and she got surprisingly close last time. I would stick to her as the winner for now.
I have not read one positive review of Victoria and Abdul. And the “praise” of Dench I would describe as appreciative. If the Academy is going to a default choice, you know it’s going to be Streep, whose film will at the very least have high publicity.
And Annette Bening over Saoirse Ronan? Nope. I think you’re seriously sleeping on Lady Bird - this is A24’s big push this year, and with the raves it’s receiving across the board, I think Picture and Screenplay are possible besides the likely Actress and Supporting Actress bids. And I’m not confident in SPC’s dumping of Bening’s film in late December - remember what happened to 20th Century Women last year?
My guess now is Hawkins/McDormand/Ronan/Winslet/Streep (in that order).
I think Chastain in MOLLY'S GAME, Ronan in LADY BIRD and Robbie in I, TONYA should be higher up the list given the strong reaction at festivals.
I saw VICTORIA AND ABDUL last week and, while Dench is very good as usual, I can easily see her not making the list, especially as I doubt she will travel (much) to the US to support the film.
If Michelle Williams breaks in to the list, she will be on her 5th nomination and will join the 'overdue' narrative, too.
For Glenn Close I think next year would be best. I'm not talking about competitions because who knows next year might have even a stronger field. But since she finally has a role that really could win her that illusive Oscar and I'm sure she will be nominated for The Wife in any years, she must back it up with an aggressive campaign and she will have time for the whole year to show the world that she really wants it. If rush things and it did not turn out the way it should be, it will be devastated for the lose opportunity. It's not like she is a winner for sure but you have to try everything.
Look at Kate Winslet, the studio has been campaigning for her since the end of summer for the movie that will be release in December while Close hasn't even have a distributor for her movie yet. And if you want a result of a recent truly great role that lost an oscar chance because the distributor did not campaign enough that would be Annette Bening in 20th Century Women and look how still sad we are.
OH my god can we not try and make Rooney Mara in Una somehow a thing?! The film itself is turgid and in a story about a girl who's spent her life in Scotland(?) she delivers a greater number of accents than she does face expressions.
I think that is time for Glenn. Now or never (never = Sunset Blvd come out).
I said this because...
http://deadline.com/2017/09/eone-kate-winslet-starring-biopic-about-war-correspondent-lee-miller-1202173892/
Kate's 8th will probably be with Wonder Wheel.
Kate's 9th will probably be with 'Lee Miller'. And probably next year.
So... GET THE FUCKING OSCAR, GLENN!
Will be God Damn nice to have Glenn this year, Kate next, and Glenn again in 2019 for Sunset Blvd. *-*
Oh, look. An all white Best Actress race.
beyaccount: What matters is that it's certainly not all 20 acting nominees. Octavia Spencer WILL be nominated and Jason Mitchell is very likely.
Oh, look. An all white Best Actress race.
I lost all fight on the matter.
beyaccount
Actors and actresses should be nominated based on their talent and performances. The color of skin is irrelevant.
@Harmodio
I agree 1000%.
Close looks to be 2018 don't rule out a Streep bravura performance in Post.
@Goran: I doubt Rooney for UNA will happen. I've not seen it but I saw BLACKBIRD, the play which it was based on at the West End, and I think such dicey source material, coupled with what people have been saying about Mara's accent, means she won't be remotely in consideration. Plus it got a very limited release in the UK so not enough people will see it over here to make a BAFTA play.
Personally, all I ask from the Best Actress Oscar race is no Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone. =)
I would love for Saoirse Ronan to be the lone young actress in the acting lineup, and I love me some Chastain, so I am optimistically predicting: Hawkins, McDormand, Ronan, Winslet and Chastain.
I agree that VICTORIA AND ABDUL is pretty much out of contention. It came out in the UK to tepid reviews, the one country where you might expect the film to gain some traction.
Emma Stone's acting baffles me. Every performance I have seen leaves me cold (what a shit performance in The Help). That she is an Oscar winner is on par with Gwenyth Paltrow - way overrated.
Her win over Isabelle Huppert this year was theft, pure and simple.
It's because she's young (how the Academy like their female acting winners as opposed to their male ones), pretty, and personable. I don't think her acting talents are a complete fraud a la Jlaw, but her Oscar was mighty generous and I'd be happy never to see my namesake's face on the awards circuit for quite some time (I still have nightmares about her insufferable BAFTA speech, when she tried to do a Meryl at the Golden Globes but promptly retraced her steps when she realized British people don't respond so well to such disingenuous bullshit).
Meryl Streep won for Iron Lady( which was not particulalrly loved by critics) and Judi was nominated for Mrs Henderson, so i don't think lukewarm response to the film is everything. I actually prefer nominations/wins for great acting in mediocre or bad films than for fine/ok acting in really good films.
Annete Benign somewhere in Hollywood right now:
https://giphy.com/gifs/black-natalie-portman-WZspk57UET7sk
VICTORIA & ABDUL is getting some quite odious reactions based on its racial politics. That could easily sink it, I hope. No need to reward Dench and Frears for coasting.
It's great that for a second year, the Best Actress field is full of so many rich possibilities. However, like last year, deserving nominees will be left off.
I don't know if the Academy will be willing to nominate Dench in a movie with such mediocre reviews, especially since she's played this type of role before, and in a year when so many other new types of performances are also being raved. I am hoping that Bening can pull at least a nomination this year after her disastrous snub for probably her best performance in 20th Century Women. Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool actually has good reviews, and her performance has actually been praised.
A possible win for Hawkins would be interesting for this type of movie. I think The Shape of Water will get a lot of nominations, but after the Amy Adams snub last year, I always get skeptical when it comes to these genre type movies and acting nominations, much less wins.
Aaron -- having seen the film (Victoria & Abdul) I think people are underestimating Dench. Oscar voters love her and VICTORIA & ABDUL is not the sort of Oscar vehicle that needs to be a critical darling to win votes from actors. It's all about the Dench and she delivers.
Glenn -- i do wonder if people actually watch the films they're complaining about anymore? I'm not saying its perfect but I was surprised how careful V&A was about a) not painting a rose tinted view of colonialism and b) not pretending that racism isn't a serious problem in England,
Aaron - maybe. but i think people are forgetting that nobody cared much about BEING JULIA as a film either but it was more than enough to get Bening in and make her a strong contender for the win (though she ultimately lost of course). Excited for Lady Bird but worried about Oscar voters tendency to take women-focused pictures less seriously.
It's time to give up on Bening's chances. She was nominated for Being Julia in a year that was so weak for traditional performances that ScarJo was nominated for A Love Song for Bobby Long in the drama category at the Globes. That isn't this year.
I don't understand why Chastain is fourteenth, behind Daniela Vega and Diane Kruger, on the chart. You say that her film is a "commercial play" - isn't this also the case with Battle of the Sexes and (probably) All the Money in the World?
I hope The Wife get picked up n released this year. The narrative o Bening vs Close is too much to bear!! But too exciting to let go!
Maybe it will v like 1950 BA race where Close n Bening X ea other n a winsome performance fr a much younger actress (Hawkins or Ronan) prevails! 😂
Seriously, alotsa actressexuals will b torn if it really boils down to Bening n Close... Both r so long overdue!
But judging from the reviews todate, I'll go w Close...its her best work in 20+ yrs n she was robbed 30 yrs ago for Fatal Attraction n Dangerous Liaisons!!! Period.
Based on what I've read, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool opens in the UK on November 17 and limited release in the US December 15.
Streep's The Post opens in limited release December 22.
Not up for debate. Glenn Close is the most overdue living actress. Every year they announce their honorary recipients I beg her name is on the list. I love Annette Bening but her overdue status is entirely based on losing to Swank twice. And the second time was not justifiable.
Nathaniel, you are totally right on Being Julia. I love Bening, and I always forget about that performance...I much preferred her in Running with Scissors that came out a few years later, but no one seemed to like that.
I guess I could see Dench receiving a "WTF-Woman in Gold" SAG nomination like Helen Mirren did a couple years ago, and her obligatory BAFTA nomination, but I have a feeling that films like Lady Bird and The Post will have much more buzz and conversation around them than Victoria & Abdul.
I think Nicole Kidman in The Killing of a Sacred Deer is a dark horse...
And yeah, Isabelle Huppert was definitely the best actress last year.
I don't think Annette Bening is happening, like...ever. To be honest.
Maybe if she gets the role of a lifetime in her 60s.
I think ronan’s getting in depends heavily on how well the movie does at the box office. If it does better than expected, Ronan is going for the win. If it doesn’t we’ll have to do with a Screenplay nom
Nathaniel- when was the last time Streep missed a Oscar nomination when her film was released in December for an award qualifying run?
That line-up is too "old" for academy standards (the youngest nominees are 41). Sally Hawkins and Frances McDormand are near locks. The Bening and Dame Judi are most likely out. In their places the propable choices are the young hotties Emma Stone, Saoirse Ronan or Margot Robbie. The only actual spoiler here, of the over-40 age group, is Meryl (because Meryl), still sight unseen.
Ageism in Hollywood is alive and well, despite Ryan Murphy.
Nathaniel- 2nd question. When was the last time Streep was not nominated for playing a real person or historical figure in a movie that was gearing up an Oscar campaign?
I know A Quiet Passion wasn't quite an indie hit this summer, but just because it wasn't realeased between October and Decembre shouldn't mean its star Cynthia Nixon, in the greatest female performance of the year so far, should be automatically counted out of the race ...... As every year, everybody's all over the new shiny thing (Margot Robbie) and leave the real award-worthy gems in the dust....
Still, nice to see some enduring, atypical talents (Hawkins, McDormand) or Theatre/TV veterans (Janney, Metcalf) buzzing their way through a nomination !!!