BAFTA Winners + Precursor Consensus = No Surprises on Oscar Night?
Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 11:03PM by Nathaniel R
Kaluuya wins "Rising Star"With only 13 days left until Oscar, the race in most of the marquee categories is sadly settled. BAFTA, held today in London, cemented the frontrunners honoring the exact same actors as the Critics Choice Awards, SAG, and Golden Globes. It's Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, and Alison Janney for the Oscars. Engrave the statues now. That's just too much consensus for Oscar to overthrow though we're personally baffled that none of that quartet's strong (and arguably better) competitors managed to put up a fight. What's more it's the first time in history when there's been no variation whatsoever in the prizes despite none of that foursome winning any of the top critics awards (NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC). Usually there's at least one 'we're-doing-our-own-thing' moment within the four categories in the televised precursors. Not this year. What happened to the tough battle we were suppose to have in Best Actress for example with Saoirse Ronan, Margot Robbie, and Sally Hawkins all seeming possible early on as victors.
The only real question on Oscar night given this lock-step agreement from all of the major precursors is within the rare categories wherein there wasn't total agreement...
Namely Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture. And given that not all of the major precursors give out the same below-the-line prizes or view them in similar ways as Oscar voters, we could still have a competition in our hands in a few of the below-the-line categories. The most competitive at this moment feel like Editing, Visual Effects, and the Sound categories. Maybe Cinematography if you don't think an 'At long last!' moment is happening for 14 time nominee Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
THE BAFTA WINNERS
Team "Billboards" were the big winners at BAFTA, repeating their SAG and GLOBE dominance.
Best Film Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Best British Film Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Best British Debut I Am Not a Witch
Best Film Not in English Language The Handmaiden
Best Documentary I Am Not Your Negro
Best Animated Film Coco
Best Director Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
The Billboards backlash didn't hit Britain. It's probably an online only thing. Sorry guys.
With the triumph of I Am Not Your Negro here and its great box office last year, it feels likely that it would have been our Oscar winner had the Academy not stupidly allowed ESPN to pretend their OJ: Made in America TV miniseries was actually a movie.
Finally, isn't it wonderful that The Handmaiden was able to snag foreign film at BAFTA since South Korea didn't even submit it for the Oscars in 2016?
Best Actress Frances McDormand, Three Billboards...
Best Actor Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress Allison Janney, I Tonya
Best Supporting Actor Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards...
Your Oscar winners in 13 days. We shed quiet tears for Saoirse, Timothée, Laurie, and Willem who were this year's inarguable critical darlings in those categories.
EE Rising Star Award Daniel Kaluuya
BAFTA Fellowship Sir Ridley Scott
The "Rising Star" award is voted on by the public and Kaluuya took it. It surely helped that in addition to his great performance the movie was a smash hit and he had Black Panther coming around the time of the ceremony.
Best Adapted Screenplay James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards...
This is James Ivory's 3rd BAFTA win (the other two were in Best Film, though). But Oscar has yet to hand him a statue. We're crossing our fingers for this 89 year-old legend and personal hero.
Will McDonagh take the Oscar or will they want to make sure Get Out (which took the WGA) doesn't go home empty-handed?
Best Original Music Alexandre Desplate, The Shape of Water
Best Cinematography Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2949
Best Editing, Baby Driver
Best Production Design, The Shape of Water
Best Costume Design, Phantom Thread
Best Makeup and Hair, Darkest Hour
These all feel like very likely Oscar winners, too, with the possible exception of Cinematography (if The Shape of Water starts sweeping tech prizes or they want to make history with Mudbound) and Editing (which sometimes goes to flashy achievements like Baby Driver but often just defaults to Best Picture)
Best Sound, Dunkirk
Best Visual FX, Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk could take both Sound categories (Oscar having two instead of BAFTA's one) but I'm guessing this is not a done deal. We could see a surprise win from Baby Driver... for at least one of them. Visual Effects is interesting this year. It's far past time to honor the Planet of the Apes franchise but they've never felt like giving them the statue before. The final part of the new trilogy could surprise with a win or Oscar might want to hand Blade Runner a statue (particularly if it loses in Cinematography). If only the statue could retroactively go to the original 1982 film which absurdly lost to E.T. in its year. Even if you love E.T. that win was bonkers given what Blade Runner managed before CGI.
Best British Animated Short Poles Apart
Best British Live Action Short Cowboy Dave
Neither of these are in the Oscar race. Have any of our British readers seen these ones? Do speak up.
How are you feeling about BAFTA and the Oscar race with just two weeks left to go?
Reader Comments (61)
There just has to be ONE surprise in a major category. Please!
When the big categories are set in stone like this year, it takes away the suspense of Oscar night. Not looking as forward to it as I normally would.
I dunno why Bafta wanna follows the precursor so closely. They used to b v diff in their winners n tastes n many underrated movies n talents who had zilch chance at winning Oscars will hav a chance to b honored. Had it been 20 yrs ago, Hawkins n Manville will b the winners! Now they juz wanna be in step w the precursors n Oscars as much as possible.
Hell, Golden Globes start to look sooo much betta compared to Bafta now!
How lovely was it to see James Ivory attend the BAFTAs with Helena Bonham Carter? I loved how she got emotional when he won.
Ciaran BAFTA moving their ceremony to preOscar in the early 00s and more recently changing their voting procedures have caused this shift. It’s sad that they are just Oscar predictors now. Thankfully best British debut and rising star catergoies exist to keep them fresh. Along with different Foriegn film eligibility rules.
How boring. Do we have to choose a bad British film?
The Oscars are never this certain and whenever we think they are set in stone there is likely to be a "holy shit" surprise that no one is expecting. We also do NOT know how the three year campaign to broaden the diversity of the Academy's membership (which has added nearly 2,000 new members) are going to vote. There are more women, more minorities, more LGBT, more international members than ever before. I feel like something big may be afoot on March 4th, like voters could be less interested in giving out a "career achievement Oscar" or moving in lock-step with the Critics Choice, Globes, SAGs or BAFTA.
Personally, I find the predictability of Oldman, McDormand, Janney and Rockwell stultifying and deadly for the Oscar telecast ratings. Wouldn't it be something if not one of the online Oscar prognosticators get any of this correct, and the Academy gives awards to anyone BUT the presumed frontrunners? Now that would be exciting and I would cheer that outcome.
This year's four acting winners are just so... stale. Not just because they've won everything, but because they all feel like the most obvious "Well duh" choices in each category. What a snooze. And if McDonagh wins original screenplay, too? Christ on a bike.
I'm not sure about BLADE RUNNER 2049 in cinematography. The Academy have had plenty of opportunities to honour Deakins, so why now with a movie that while popular in the techs (four branches) was otherwise shut out? And especially when they have their possible BP winner OR a BP nominees that made a very big splash about its cinematography in DUNKIRK (how many saw it in IMAX?!? I know I'd be voting for it based on that experience).
To Tomei up the ceremony going forward they should have a ranked system for determining the winner in all categories not just best picture.
Because BLADE RUNNER 2049 got so many tech noms, it feels like it has to win *somewhere*, no?
The sweetest surprise of the night to me, is The Handmaiden's win! No one see tt coming n its a wonderfull offbeat choice! 😁
The biggest issue I've w Bafta is not the acting category, but the double dipping of films in both Best Film n Best British Film nom! This is so infuriating n unfair to non-british films n lesser known local indies who hav no chance at the biggest prize, when films like 3BB n Darkest Hour took up 2 precious slots each!!
I ustand the need to hav a seperate cat so tt lesser known homegrown films can hav a chance, but they shld've a rule tt stipulates tt if a film qualify for both cat, the studio must make a choice o which category they wanna be nom under n which to forgo.
At least Dunkirk has the integrity NOT to submit for consideration under the British cat, which it wld surely hav been nom n even won! It's sad tt its makers' integrity was rewarded w jus a sound prize 😢 while greedy prizegrabbers like 3BB n Darkest Hour end up w the main!
Sally Hawkins and Daniel Kaluuya were the critical darlings of '17.
This shit keeps happening.... Saves us, Aquaman!
The 3 Billboards backlash was nothing like as strong over in the U.K. Almost every major critic, both ‘highbrow’ and populist was fully on-board. Some of the best print critics acknowledged the controversy, but minimised or dismissed it, or bought into the Martin McDonagh defence that the messiness was part of his artistic intention. Personally, I have yet to meet a person who didn’t love the movie. I think it’s probably a combination of McDonagh having a much larger profile in the U.K, and critics placing different emphases on what they are looking for. There’s also undoubtedly the issue that people writing about the film from the U.K. don’t have the cultural reference points to be able to critique the films race storyline in as much depth as American critics.
I do find the fact that it won both best film and best British film hugely irritating - BAFTA really needs to sort that process out as there were some incredible movies in the British list that could really have benefited from the win
Of the top categories, these are the only two without a locked winner...
BEST PICTURE: Three Billboards vs. The Shape of Water
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Get Out vs. Lady Bird vs. Three Billboards
The Shape of Water and The Post are the only ones I still remember. Isn’t Three Billboards a tortured and British metaphor for November 2016, Brexit, whatever it was about?
It will be one of those years when i love ALL the favorites but i can't help feeling BORED all along because there is not ONE surprise .... It was the case yesterday. Even as much as much as i liked (not loved) Three Billboards, there's been such a variety of great films this year, it's a shame that only one gets all the reward ... Add the fact that it's a British film and you couldn't even find variety in the British Film category ... Boring !
I'm holding onto Moonlight's surprise win last year and hoping for Saoirse.
Moonlight's win wasn't a surprise. The blunder with the incorrect envelope was.
I still hold out hope for a Willem Dafoe upset in Supporting Actor. Especially if AMPAS sentiment for 3BB is cooler than in the UK (as the lack of a McDonagh nomination in BD suggests), he could profit. Would be fully deserved as well, by the way.
I feel like you dislike the locks in the acting categories because they are locks and not because you dislike their acting. If Willem or DDL were the frontrunners there would be a lot of people who would call the choices safe. And yes i feel that in Europe, with everyone i've talked to at least, 3 Billboards didn't cause much of a stir and most people saw it as a comedy/satire.
I like the idea that the other categories should be voted on based on a preferential ballot , though am not sure what the logistics / manpower of counting those votes would require.
As far I could see, La La Land had it last year.
I was following on a website that incorrectly stated that Annette Bening had won and at the time I just thought “how different and exciting”. Then when I learnt the real winner I just thought “meh”.
BAFTA used to be better than this, now it’s just a bit dull.
Interesting to me that Frances didn't win any of the top critics' awards (LAFCA, NYFCC or NSFC) for Fargo and she didn't win them this year.
I believe the only other modern two-time Oscar winner who won without any of the top critics' prizes is Hanks, and he won for a big breakthrough political role that was a departure from his years as a friendly comedic star and a huge box office/cultural smash.
Also, I know I sound bitter in saying this, but facts are facts: that dress she is wearing is hideous.
So disapponting and boring. Sally Hawkins deserved to win this.
I still feel like Saoirse could sneak in a win somehow. You know Frances is probably telling her friends to stop voting for her.
The dress is hideous but at least she ignored the absurd black code.
"Who would have thought that Marge Gunderson would grow up to be Mildred Hays?" That line moved me as a longtime fan. I would happily trade this second Oscar for more leading roles. I'm sure she would too. Look at her filmography. Even after Fargo she only did bit parts for years.
The big question of the night for me was "what store did Allison Janney buy that dress or did she get it from Tonya Harding's wardrobe""
Yes, a bit predictable in the top acting list, but then Oldman, McDormand, Janney & Rockwell deserve to win as much as the others, no? I do like this group although I'd happily swap McDormand for either Ronan or Hawkins.
A few months ago, it was looking more like Chalamet, Hawkins, Metcalf and Dafoe and I think some people were already weary of these people winning all the critics' prizes. Now with this sea change that shifted the winners, people are finding the predictability a bit, well, predictable. It would be great to have some surprise winners come Oscar night, but it's probably my very subjective take as to who I consider should win this year.
Are you all OK with the Del Toro sweep? He would be my 4th choice.
@MARKGORDONUK: Lol!
I kno this sounds bitchy but it isn't every award night tt u get the two worst dress actresses winning the two actresses prizes!
Maybe they r mentally preparing our eyes for Oscar nite..lol
I don't care if winners are predictable. I was overjoyed to see Arquette and Julianne win a few years ago even though they swept all the major precursers. I'm thrilled James Ivory is going to win even though he's swept all the major precursers. I just want to see winners who are deserving. This was a great year for film, and it's depressing to see the four acting winners come down to this.
It'll be nice if Baby Driver can repeat for Best Editing and I hope Varda can win Best Documentary as well. I'm glad Phantom Thread can pick up an Oscar, too.
Peggy Sue - He's my fourth choice as well, but he's so preferable to the bad choices they've made in the recent past in this category (Hazanavičius, Hooper, not to mention the unnecessary second Iñárritu Oscar) that I can't get worked up about it. I am just relieved they didn't nominate McDonough.
I was thinking Baby Driver could win sound editing but Dunkirk would win film editing (and sound mixing).
Last year Fantastic Beasts won a production design BAFTA but then surprise won costume at Oscar instead. Similar to that.
Loved that The Handmaiden win!
Thank God!
McDormand!
I really hate Ronan.
Poor timoothee!😔
Al least i still hope he has a chance to win spirit awards 🙏🏻
Or kaluuya is going to upset?!
I still think Sup Actor will go to Defoe come Oscar night, the rest of the acting races will repeat.
I really think Best Picture sports the only suspense - had McDonagh been eligible over at WGA, I suspect he would've triumphed there too and wound up looking like a shoo-in for the Oscar. Best Picture, though, is awfully interesting, given the divisiveness of the two front-runners and the how that could be affected by the preferential ballot. Still, I bet it's THREE BILLBOARDS.
Big performances and big personalities tend to have the edge. It so happens that all the acting categories this year have one or both of them. In supporting actress specifically, Janney has a bigger performance and a bigger real life personality.
McDormand put in the best performance this year. It's not like there's been some huge push to make her a double winner as if she's Meryl Streep. It's well deserved.
These acting winners are so second-rate. Literally—there’s a better choice in each category.
i am confident oscars will throw a surprise in either a single acting category or picture. i’d love to see lots of surprises just for the thrill. but i don’t think it will happen. we may get these acting winners and TSOW for pic + dir.
Bruno--ITA. Frances is the only one of these winners who deserve the win for the specific performance. Oldman is winning for his career, and I guess I'm OK with that. I love Rockwell and his work in 3BBs, but Dafoe is slightly more deserving. Janney's sweep of these precursors is bewildering and annoying. Laurie was robbed.
HOW did such an unpredictable awards season become so basic? I'm praying for an upset in like every category.
So pleased with Park Chan-wook's The Handmaiden win. Happy to see this wonderful fable of a film getting its due across the pond. And it's fitting the film is based on a novel written by a British author, Sarah Waters.
Three Billboards is a terrible movie with a terrible script, a terrible performance by Rockwell, and more of the same of what McDormand has given us for years. I only can assume that it's done so well this awards season because it gives faux liberals in the industry the veneer of being progressive without actually being progressive, as the film is a mishmash of pertinent social issues which it trades on in order to make its ugly white characters seem a lot more complex and decent than they actually are by the end.
I am not a fan of most of the award movies this year. I guess my 2 favs are CMBYN and I Tonya.
I detest 3 Billboards on many levels.
Why bother having different awards if they're just going to honour the exact same people at every show?! It doesn't make any sense. I know I'm not saying anything new but this is just maddening. Incredibly boring for viewers, at least me, and insulting to the many great performances going unnoticed this year.
Has Laurie Metcalf won anything for Lady Bird?! I generally adore Janney but that is by no means an award winning performance, especially over the masterful work done by Metcalf.
“Has Laurie Metcalf won anything for Lady Bird?! I generally adore Janney but that is by no means an award winning performance, especially over the masterful work done by Metcalf.”
Metcalf won the LA Film Critics’ prize as well as the National Society’s prize. This is shaping up to be the first year in a long while where none of the televised (Globes, SAG, BAFTA) winners won a single one of the big three (NY/LA/NSFC) critics’ prizes which overwhelmingly went to Chalamet, Hawkins, Dafoe, and Metcalf.