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April Foolish: First Supporting Actress Predictions!

by Nathaniel R

Amy Adams as Second Lady Lynne CheneyPeople keep talking about whether or not Glenn Close can finally win an Oscar with The Wife... but while we're on the topic of perpetual bridesmaids, whither Amy Adams? She stars as Lynne Cheney in the biopic about Dick Cheney which reunites her with her American Hustle costar Christian Bale so perhaps we'll have to do "make up" Oscar wins this year for past slights? That's just one of the questions we have about this year's Best Supporting Actress competition which so far has zero competitors unless you count Rachel McAdams in Disobedience (but that just opened today so let's give everyone a week or to catch up with it - here's Jason's review) or unless you count fan favorites like Jennifer Garner in Love Simon and Lupita Nyong'o or Letitia Wright in Black Panther but all three of those scenarios are more fan-fiction than real possibilities given the type of roles and movies and performances they are. (They serve their movies well, especially Letitia Wright, don't misunderstand.)

The best supporting actress turn I've seen thus far for women in 2018 (and it's obviously super early in the film year) is from Virginia Madsen who does lovely work as a Christian mom realizing her eldest son is gay in the understated AIDS drama 1985. That's a micro-budget black & white indie, though, so we can't expect awards play unless the fates are miraculously kind to it. Still, there are plenty of exciting performances to come so on the new Supporting Actress Chart where we've selected 20 women who look like possible contenders. At least on paper but we have to start somewhere!


Previous April Foolish Articles
Costume Design, Cinematography, Original Score, Screenplays, Animated Features, Supporting Actor and the Prediction Charts

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Reader Comments (32)

I thought Meryl was playing Mary Poppins's umbrella?

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterevangelina

Isn't Rachel McAdams supposed to be the frontrunner for Disobedience?

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered Commentercal roth

Love the actresses you've included, here's hoping we get films as strong as their abilities.

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterLadyEdith

Why does supporting actress feel like a bloodbath this early on?

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

Adams’ luck is such that every year since doubt that she’s in the running, the year starts with her as a front runner but as the season rolls, she assumes the runnerup or back of the pack position.

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRizz

It would be fun to see both the younger and older versions of Queen Elizabeth II In The Crown fighting it out! Im 'referring, of course, to Claire Foy and Olivia Coleman.

Plus one question for you, Nat: What do you think the producers involved will do about Saoirse Ronan? Will On Chesil Beach figure at all? Will they push her for lead in Chesil and Supporting in Mary Queen of Scots? Or will they risk two leads in Mary? And The Seagull? She'd be supporting there...

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMarcos

Amy Adams is so underrated. I hope she wins soon. She was wonderful in American Hustle, a performance with nuance. And she was great in Doubt.

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterrrrich7

Amy Ryan should've been nominated for Birdman. She kills it. Can't wait to see Michael and Holly back together.

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

Good lord, if Amy Adams earns 5 nominations for beautifully unique fictional characters and then wins an Oscar for a biopic, that's gonna hurt.

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMike in Canada

Marcos: They're not going to dare push Saorise Ronan as supporting for either On Chesil Beach OR Mary, Queen of Scots. On Chesil Beach is basically a "Two Leads, Different Genders" movie, and those are always pitched right. And she's Mary, Queen of Scots IN Mary, Queen of Scots, so that would be a BRAZEN move, even by Category Fraud standards. It wasn't Colin Firth who got the Category Fraud placement for The King's Speech, after all.

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterVolvagia

Volvagia: You're absolutely right. I did not imply that Ronan would be pushed as supporting for Chesil. But I got mixed up with Marty... Let's hope Mary does not turn out to be like The Other Boleyn Girl!

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMarcos

You are so right about Vera Farmiga. Hollywood has never known what to do with her - even after her (deserved) Oscar nomination for Up in the Air. I would love to see her back in the race.

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

I'd add -as long as it gets released this year- Kathy Bates/Natalie Portman/Susan Sarandon/Thandie Newton in "The Death And Life of John F. Donovan". I don't know how big the roles will be but if they and the film deliver they could be in the mix, too.

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

re: Jackson in Mary, Queen of Scotts - she was nominated for lead that year in Sunday, BLoody Sunday. Odds are she was pushed lead for the other as well, but that was a clear under performer.

re: Kidman - don't you think she's more likely in lead for Destroyer?

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterArkaan

Arkaan -- no. a least in the distributor / director side of things BOY ERASED is a much surer bet for receiving attention (at this point in time)

Volvagia & Marcos - I'm sincerely hoping that MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS focuses on Mary and makes Elizabeth supporting because lord knows we've had a lot of Elizabeth as leading lady of the story onscreen. The book this version is based on got rave reviews for a fascinating portrait of Mary and making people rethink her place in the story. and her life was fascinating... i dont know why i'm not more hopeful about this movie.

April 27, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

I'm not quite understanding why Ms. Wright should get more notices than Danai Gurira (the MVP of BP). If any performance deserves acknowledgement from that film, it's hers.

April 27, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterKBJr.

KBJr -- i guess this is just a reminder of the joy of the subjectivity of acting. For me Gurira is a fierce presence and great fun in the action scenes but I thought Wright and Nyong'o were stronger performances. But, still, the true MVP (to me) for acting in Black Panther is Michael B Jordan who is acting on a separate transcendent level (as per usual with him. what a star).

fwiw i dont watch Walking Dead so I didn't know who Gurira was until ECLIPSED on Broadway a couple of years ago so it was great fun to realize that this super talented playwright was actually an actor people loved! P.S. if you haven't seen AVENGERS INFINITY WAR yet I'd argue she's even better in that than she was in Black Panther. She gets two of the very best moments.

Joe -- i keep forgetting about that movie. i think mostly because with Dolan movies its best not to worry about them until they're staring you in the face since distribution is always such a weird issue with his movies.

April 27, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Gay people will combust in joy if both Glenn and Amy win Oscars next year!

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSTFU

I agree with Mike in Canada. Oscar for supportive wife (I assume, im not american and unfamiliar with the Cheneys) of american politician feels somewhat anticlimactic after all she has delivered on screen. Though she did transcend the ‘supportive girlfriend’ role in The Fighter to give one of her best performances so we will see!

I’m off to print ‘Amy Adams should have won in lead for Arrival’ t-shirts in anticipation.

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterChoog

Well, the same thing you said about Roberts being willing to cheat (lead gone supporting for AOC) can be said about Adams for Doubt. Maybe it was just fear of LaStreep in both cases.

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterDoubtful

I love that you have Cher on the long list for "Mamma Mia: Here we go Again".

Sure the trailer makes it look like it's just an extended cameo, and that she probably won't be bothering with any 'acting', but I love seeing her here all the same.

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterBJT

Adams wasn't leading in Doubt. What?

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered Commentercal roth

Wouldnt it be better if amy just gets her sixth nomination for backseat, but win the next year for lead role in "woman in the window"? Thats my wishful thinking.

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterArghavan

Thank you! I look forward to your predictions every year. If those end up being the final 5, I'll be a happy man.

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRod

Cal roth: I know! That made me laugh.

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMike in Canada

Nathaniel - I know that you spent the entirety of The Visitor gazing at Haaz Sleiman (we all did) but Danai Gurira was stood right next to him the whole time, whenever Richard Jenkins wasn't anyway...

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterkermit_the_frog

no Tilda Swinton for suspiria?????? she has to be nominated again soon please academy

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered Commentersuls

Hey Nat. Love that you included Julia roberts for ben is back, but i worked on the film and can assure you its a leading role. She is in more of the film than lucas and its more of her story than his. I doubt they would campaign her for supporting. I guess its possible but highly unlikely.

April 28, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJosh

Kermit -omg how embarrassing. yes. Haaz does it for me, what can i say?

Josh -thanks for the tip. perhaps i'll move her to the lead chart (almost finished) and replace her here.

April 28, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Gurira was the best female performance in black panther by leaps and bounds. It’s not even up for debate, really.

Though I understand the love for Wright (she was funny as hell).

Lupita (who is a better actress than both by the way) was quite dull in her role and, for me, didn’t do anything special except be beautiful. Maybe she’s just not good in big blockbuster films. Shrug.

April 29, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterHuh

Saw I Feel Pretty last night. Michelle Williams doing a comedic character this extreme from her natural persona deserves award season conversation. What a revelation she was.

April 29, 2018 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

I saw ON CHESIL BEACH at the London Film Festival last year. Ronan would have to do something truly special in MARY, QUEEN OF SCOTS to surpass her performance in OCB, where I thought she was amazing.

May 1, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEmma

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