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« April Foolish Predictions: 4 Questions About Best Animated Feature | Main | William Holden in "S.O.B." »
Monday
Apr162018

The April Foolish Oscar Predictions Begin...

Ah... April. It's that time of year when we inevitably make fools of ourselves looooong in advance by predicting the Oscar nominations nearly a full year ahead of time. The 91st Oscars won't be held for another 314 days (February 24th, 2019 if you must know) but it's time we started building the Oscar charts.

First up, Original & Adapted Screenplay guesswork. Unlike last season when the Oscars were ALL about the original titles (seriously it was a strange but delightful year since Academy voters generally prefer material based on something pre-existing) this year looks like a return to the more usual modus operandi. At least at this distance. The films that look "most likely to..." reap Oscar nominations on paper are Adapted titles again. It's probably foolish to bank on directors Barry Jenkins and Damien Chazelle ruling shoulder to shoulder againin 2018 the way they did in 2016 with Moonlight and La La Land (that sort of consecutive success and symmetry in such quick succession isn't common), but at the same time it's hard to resist the notion of both the inspiring biopic First Man (with Ryan Gosling playing Neil Armstrong) and a dramatic James Baldwin adaptation from two of our most important young directors being films that will seize Oscar's imagination.

Do check out the new charts and share your own hunches the comments please. The original titles of course we know much less about though we're very intrigued by several of them given the names or topics involved. We're especially pleased to notice that Nicole Holofcener, one of the industry's most gifted and unique voices, has not one but two screenplays this year (the adaptations Can You Ever Forgive Me? and The Land of Steady Habits) so we hope both films are great because it's long long past time that Oscar noticed her! 

P.S. If you're wondering why I'm not including Martin Scorsese's The Irishman in the predictions, please note that we've been burned with predictions literally every single time we've expected one of his epics to arrive on time. This one isn't technically slated until 2019 so we aren't as optimistic as other pundits that it will be done early. I mean where are people getting this crazy hope that Marty will think he's Clint Eastwood this time and speed through the filmmaking process? Marty & Thelma generally take their sweet time in the editing bay. Yes, sometimes they take more than a year in post. 

 

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Reader Comments (14)

I think the “Win/Nominated” part needs to be checked. When did Julian Schnable win an Oscar? Barry Jenkins and Adam McKay have one win each.

April 16, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterBD (the real one)

Love reading your predictions! One nitpick - Ashgar Farhadi has been nominated in the original screenplay category before, as A Separation was one of the rare foreign films to break out of the Foreign Language category (and deservedly so!)

April 16, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterChrisH

Also Farhadi has indeed been nominated in Screenplay before, Land of Stady Habits was based on a book, and you may as well remove Old Man and the Gun entirely since it has Casey Affleck in it (tho I wouldn't be too surprised if he gets cut out)

April 16, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterykcinema

I think it's long past time that Richard Linklater won an Oscar. I also think he's the type of nominee that will get in if the film gets in anywhere else (e.g., Best Actress).

April 16, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

A musical remake of "Valley Girl"?!?!? When?!??! When!!!!

"First Man" has all the markings of being a front runner. Right in the path of the Baby Boomers.

April 17, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterforever1267

Black Panther: nominated for Best Picture...

April 17, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterShawn McGuire

I’m really curious about Where’d you go Bernadette? The book’s pretty a modern epistolary novel, told only through emails, letters, etc. I wonder if Linklater will incorporate this into his script at all. Blanchett’s such a great choice for the title role, although I read somewhere she might be place in the supporting category. After all, the story’s about her going missing.

April 17, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterCarlos

Breaking: Almodóvar will start shooting "Dolor y gloria" this July starring Antonio Banderas, Asier Etxeandia, Julieta Serrano, and Penélope Cruz.

April 17, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

Is it the Moon Landings Anniversary year!,if so even more reason for 1st Man to be the frontrunner.

April 17, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

Nat: Though filming of Peterloo began last year, I don't know if it'll actually come out this year. They might be waiting a year to do the "200th anniversary" tie-in thing.

April 17, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterVolvagia

Volvagia -- yeah, it's always a crapshoot as to when things will come out. We'll see.

April 17, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

I love the way you start with a story as the foundation. You are so right.

A great story can make good actors look great, allow formerly unnoticed actors to shine, create enthusiasm in the cast and crew, and linger in the viewer's mind for a long time. With a poor story, everyone is always trudging uphill, and the leftover feeling is just sadness and regret.

April 18, 2018 | Unregistered Commenteradri

Rampage for Best Picture and Dwayne Johnson for Best Actor.

April 18, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterYup

Yup -- OMG HOW COULD I FORGET ;)

April 18, 2018 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

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