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Saturday
Jan262019

Who will win SAG tomorrow?

by Nathaniel R

Is the Oscar race as locked up as we think, or will SAG hold some surprises? Care to conjecture about what will win? I'll confess, perhaps foolishly, that I think we could be in for some surprises. Conventional wisdom will tell you that Close, Bale, Ali, and Adams will be the winners... though conventional wisdom will not solve the case of "who wins Outstanding Cast?" since the arguable Best Picture frontrunner Green Book and two most Oscar-nominated pictures Roma and The Favourite are not nominated in that category. With three heavy-hitters out, and Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star is Born, and BlacKkKlansman as the nominees, that prize is something of a mystery...

ACTRESS But is conventional wisdom correct? We think it is in the case of Glenn Close who has the advantage of being a legendary respected actor with long histories in all three actors mediums (tv, film, theater) which should safely endear her to SAG's voting body. She feels like the safest call within the five acting categories, and she'd be a mortal lock if voters could vote for Olivia Colman as a unit with her Favourite bitches Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz. But since that film weirdly did not receive the cast nomination it so richly deserved, Colman could definitely surprise. Hell, even Lady Gaga could surprise. Remember when Johnny Depp beat Sean Penn in 2003 or when Renée Zellweger beat Nicole Kidman in 2002 because of the love for their blockbuster smashes? If SAG really wants to honor the megahits, they just might.

ACTOR Here we'll see if Bradley Cooper has ANY hope of winning Best Actor at the Oscars after a confusing season where A Star is Born has dominated the conversation but hasn't been able to convert that into winning trophies outside of Best Song. We believe most people are predicting Bale but we think Rami Malek takes this one because if SAG will nominate the entire cast of Bohemian Rhapsody despite everyone but Rami having very little to do within the film, chances are their love is deep (and blind). There's that and there's also the new but very familiar Bryan Singer allegations. We don't believe for even a single hot second that Rami Malek is telling the truth when he says he knew nothing about Singer's history (this has been a news story every once in awhile since 1998 and a noisy rumor even more often than that for the past twenty years) but we think actors will sympathize with the position he's been put in regardless. Who would want to be blamed for their boss's crimes when they themselves are innocent? I've had some good bosses in my life and some terrible ones but in all cases I would have thought it absurd to apologize for taking a job I needed if they were accused of a crime. People gotta work. Better to direct the public ire at the studios hiring Singer than the actors who wanted a job.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS We want this race to stay confusing! We dream of another Supporting Actress race like 2007 where different people keep winning. Why can't we have that more often? Margot Robbie and Emily Blunt didn't make it to the Oscar list so they're out as far as wins go (there's no extenuating circumstances that might help them to a win as there was with Idris Elba some years ago). Regina King was famously snubbed at SAG so she's out. If Amy Adams wins here and repeats at BAFTA, she's likely to win the Oscar and we don't want her winning for this particular role. But she will win SAG. It's been hard to dream up a scenario where Rachel Weisz or Emma Stone becomes the sole winner for The Favourite , so we think this an easy call for Adams.

SUPPORTING ACTOR Some people are predicting Sam Elliott for the same reason that we're predicting Glenn Close and Elliott winning this prize would delight us to no end, since he's an actual supporting actor and both he and the movie, are wonderful and deserve more than just Best Song at some point in the season. But unfortunately we don't see it playing out like that. Green Book's Mahershala Ali has been steamrolling and we think that'll continue through Oscar night, despite the fact that he won SAG and Oscar just two years ago for a better performance. I'm thinking back to Jason Robards who chased that All the President's Men (1976) Oscar win with an entirely inexplicable win the following year despite a barely there performance in Julia (1977) -- even with better internal competition from his own film! Why was he able to do that? Presumably because people were in love with him at the time. Love, as we see with Bohemian Rhapsody, is stronger than any logic about awards histories, sharing the wealth, and discernment about whether a not a performance belongs in a particular category or is up to a particular actor's usually high standards.

OUTSTANDING CAST. We only pray that this won't go to the nothingness of Bohemian Rhapsody outside of Freddie Mercury which is very possible given that it was nominated at all. But we're predicting, not from wishful thinking but from sheer cultural force, that this is where Black Panther finally gets a big award for the season. It's the biggest mainstream award that it has a strong shot at winning given the shut out at BAFTA, its losses at the Globes, and its possibly off-air tech wins at the Oscars. Here is, definitely then, the place to reward it. Nobody would complain about seeing that legion of wonderful actors doing their "Wakanda forever" gesture on live television while beaming with their acting trophies. 

 

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Reader Comments (40)

Any chance that Amy Adams' chances in Best Actress are hurt by the fact that they have the option of voting for her on the TV side for her (frankly better) work in Sharp Objects?

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMJS

Adams malik ali gaga

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterLucio

Kind of feel it's do or die in Best Actress. Whoever wins wins the Oscar and likely BAFTA too. I think either Sam Elliott or Bradley Cooper (not both) surprise. I could see Weisz winning supporting too.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

Can someone explain to me why Amy Adams’s performance in Arrival was left out of the Oscars’ shortlist? It’s baffling.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBlueMoon02

I wonder if Emma Stone has a chance in Supporting Actress. Weisz is a more popular prediction, but SAG is an all-American voting body and Emma is the American representative among The Favourite's trio.

Best Cast feels very up in the air; the only one that is out of it is Crazy Rich Asians.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Malek, Close, Grant, Adams and Blackkklansman.

There was a sat I read on twitter that noted rarely do previous winners repeat at SAG. I don't think Ali will win again especially so soon and maybe I'm biased because I'm nonchalant towards the performance but I dont see Elliott winning either. The nomination will be the reward like Rourke or Keaton. So I'm going with Grant.

I see this is where BKKK makes its first impact (then later wins Best Pic).

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMya

Isn't Chalamet a nominee here? Give it to Timothee! So cute. Maya Rudolph kept it so real with him at the Globes where he says I love you and she stopped him cold and said you love my husband.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

I'd like Cooper,Close,Elliott,Wiesz but think we'll get Bale and Adams and Close and Elliott.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

The two actress categories are way more interesting than the actor ones. Regina King is probably winning the Oscar but someone else has to win SAG and BAFTA. Actress is either Close finally winning or Gaga/Coleman which are all interesting. Actor we have either Malek pulling a Redmayne and winning over a likable vet or Bale getting another when Cooper winning makes the most sense. And Elliot or Grant winning would be super fun but everyone will probably go with the dullest option and go with Ali. Though slight intrigue with Ali, he'd be only the second African-American actor to have two Oscars and the first to win two supporting.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJustin

Clicked my SAG ballot yesterday. If only I didn't have a track record of RARELY voting for the winners.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterTom M

Bluemoon02 - The LOVING team campaigned way harder than its nomination tally would suggest. (No film came close to the amount of print FYC ads purchased). Negga also got a shout-out in Streep’s famous Cecile B. DeMille.

Personally, I believe Adams was better than all the actual nominees except for Huppert. Until he was essentially bullied into predicting her, Nathaniel was the only one who suspected her snub based on the genre-bias in the acting categories.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRoger

I think Weisz wins BSA, and I'm gonna say Grant too.

Hope for Close and for someone other than Bale or Malek.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

If t dont believe Malek regarding the Singer allegations-which I also dont- you cant believe half of Hollywood, including Streep, who said they had no Idea about Weinstein.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterAmanda

Me - I hope you’re right and I’m hoping with you.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRoger

Jason Robards inexplicable second win is the same as Christophe Waltz's second Oscar for Django Unchained, where he played basically the same character!

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMarcos

Best Ensemble: BLACKKKLANSMAN
Best Actor: Rami Malek, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Best Actress: Glenn Close, THE WIFE (but yes, it can be Lady Gaga or Olivia Colman, it's truly unpredictable)
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, GREEN BOOK
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz, THE FAVOURITE
Best Stunt Performance: BLACK PANTHER

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterEd

Glenn (finally and well deserved!)
Bale (my Favourite of the nominees - Loved Vice!)
Grant (really liked actor in this business! And we need a shake up in this category! I love u, Mahershala! But you already has one Oscar and a future Emmy next September.)
Weisz (is being days I am thinking in this!)
Blackkklasman

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMaisel

Amanda -- that's actually quite a different scenario. Everyone in Hollywood knew that Harvey Weinstein was a bully. But the sexual harassment and rape cases were new information to a large degree. There were no famous lawsuits or anything like there had been with Singer. I was shocked at first and I follow movies closely.

January 26, 2019 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

I think Bradley Cooper might win here. He has such an actor story- took acting classes, asked DeNiro for advice then ended up starring in a movie with him, started in TV, broke out of douchebag stereotype roles, brought a passion project to Broadway, then transferred to directing another passion project with we all were deriding him for making a movie with Lady Gaga. He has come a long way, and has earned a lot of respect from his fellow actors.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterTom G.

for once I agree with/3rtful ... who woulda thunk?????

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterrdf

In an ideal world, Grant and Weisz win.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterDg

I feel like Olivia Colman could Jean Dujardin herself to a surprise upset here, which would set her up for the Oscar.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

Watched Vice yesterday and Adams is just brilliant ( I liked the film as well and Bale is great.) For me, now, Supporting Actress is a tie between Adams and Weisz ( who I adore and is delightful in The Favourite); Cooper deserves Best Actor, although I don't get all the praise towards ASIB, it's a fine film, with a fine performance from Gaga an ok performance from Elliot and (obviously) , fantastic singing. BA can go either way, Close-Colman-McCarthy; Grant or Chalamet for S.Actor; Cast: BlacKkKlansman.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterEder Arcas

I'll be hopeful, and go Cooper / Close / Elliott / Adams, with "Black Panther" for cast.

January 26, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterforever1267

rdf - That's the uniting power of dickpiggery for you.

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterHarmony

I almost feel like the BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY team doesn't want to win Best Ensemble here. The backlash has been growing and intensified this week with the Bryan Singer news. Them winning here would make that backlash even stronger heading to Oscars (which frankly is helping GREEN BOOK and VICE go under the radar a bit for their own suckiness).

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRyan T.

To be honest I totally don't get the love for "A Star is Born" (which is as good as the Barbra Streisand version [at best] and even can't be compared with far superior versions with Gaynor and Garland) and Sam Elliott DOESN'T DO ANYTHING in this movie. So if he wins it would mean that the actors in SAG are blind (especially when they have Ali, Chalamet and Grant in the same competition).
Ali is wonderful in "Green Book" and I don't have any problems with his second win just two years after the previous one. But if they choose Grant I would be as pleased.
Adams should not win if they have Weisz and Stone - and I think that Weisz HAS A SHOT at winning (she's won 13 years ago and Stone just 2 years ago so I think that Weisz has an advantage over Emma).
And though I think that Mortensen should win, Malek would be my second choice. Cooper did not win with him at the Globes simply because (despite the fact that he's the only actor in "A Star is Born" that actually deserves the recognition) Malek IS better. He does not sing but his role is far more difficult. And he's obviously far better than Bale or Washington.

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSomeone

BlueMoon02, I re-watched the wonderful Arrival a couple of days ago and the performance of Amy Adams has aged so well. For me, this is her best performance to date and she should have been the frontrunner along with Isabelle Huppert. I love Emma Stone but she was given the award way too early which didn't play too well in the case of Jennifer Lawrence. It would have been a great opportunity to give it to Amy Adams for a beautiful nuanced performance. I'm afraid that one day she will win because she is "due" not on the merits of her performance. But that happens all the time, anyway.

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterDaniel B.

Marcos: A kindly bounty hunter and a Nazi are not basically the same character! (but I know you know that...!)

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterEdward L.

My predictions: Malek, Close, Ali, Adams, Bohemian Rhapsody (which I could also see winning Best Picture at the Oscars.)

My preferences: Washington, Colman (or Close, just so she can lock it up), Grant (or Elliott), Blunt, Black Panther.

Count me as someone who has no problem with Adams not having been nominated for Arrival. I’ve heard she’s great in the film, but given the Academy’s blind love of Streep, a nomination for Adams would’ve meant Ruth Negga or Isabelle Huppert missed out, and I’m very glad neither of them did. Adams is one of the finest actors in the business, but she’s a perennial nominee. Her missing out for one fine performance doesn’t trouble me at all. (This is why I’m only slightly annoyed that Ethan Hawke missed out for First Reformed. He had already been nominated twice, and on one occasion had stolen the nod from Steve Buscemi – I can’t begrudge the Academy for giving it to Dafoe, who arguably deserved it less than Hawke did this year but whom they justly love, instead.)

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterThe Mighty Rhino

I think they are going to spread the wealth:
Ensemble : A Star is Born
Actor : Rami Malek
Actress: Glenn Close
Supporting actor : Mahershala Ali
Supporting actress : Amy Adams

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterErick Loggia

@Edward L. That's his point. He plays a Nazi and a bounty hunter in the same way!

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered Commentercal roth

Shld: Close, Cooper, Stone, Grant, Blackkkslanman
Likely: Close, Malek, Adams, Ali, Black Panther

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

@The Mighty Rhino: Adams was better than Negga and Huppert that year. It's one of the top 2 finest performances of her career, and she deserved not only a nom but the Oscar. I hope both of those other 2 fine actresses receive more noms in the future as well.

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

Just imagine the pandemonium if the film (Crazy Rich Asians) and four actors (Blunt, Washington, Robbie, Chalamet) not nominated for Oscars win.

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterNewMoonSon

It seems to me that some are participating in a campaign against Rami Malek to benefit his favorites.

I agree with Amanda. In Hollywood many people knew about Weinstein but they preferred to ignore this because Weinstein could give benefits to their careers.

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterHarmodio

I agree with Nathaniel. But regardless, I would hope things have changed since Weinstein campaigned his way to Oscar wins. Maybe we should require more of Rami Malek in 2019 than we did of the people who worked with Weinstein, and we should require more of Oscar voters now than we did of Oscar voters a few years ago. (Not to mention I think, if Malek won, it would arguably be a bottom 5 winner in the category - possibly the worst winner since Roberto Benigni.)

A lot of things were acceptable in the recent past that are no longer acceptable. Billy Crystal even appeared in blackface the last time he hosted the Oscars. Times are changing rapidly.

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

I unfortunately do not think enough of the 120,000+ voters in SAG-AFTRA saw Can You Ever Forgive Me? for Grant to win. 'Tis a pity because he is so incredibly deserving.

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMichael R

I'll play crazy and maybe score 0/5!

Bohemian Rhapsody
Glenn Close
Rami Malek
Mahershala Ali
Emily Blunt

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterF.

Blunt winning is probably the best thing that could happen for Regina King and the worst thing for Amy Adams.

January 27, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

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