Major shakeups in the Best Supporting Actress race
Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 1:19PM We will finish the Oscar chart updates this weekend We will finish the Oscar chart updates this weekend We will finish the Oscar chart updates this weekend We will finish the Oscar chart updates this weekend We will finish the Oscar chart updates this weekend We will fin
There's a ton of movement on the new Best Supporting Actress Oscar prediction chart. Laura Dern and Jennifer Lopez might be all locked up but that's for nominations, the win is still very much anyone's game. Florence Pugh has been gaining momentum with Little Women more heavily screening now and the fact that she takes a well worn familiar character and suddenly makes her freshly fascinating. The Academy would never touch MidSommar but enthusiasm for her leading performance there in critical quarters doesn't exactly hurt her prestige factor since she's still a relative lesser known in Hollywood. Meanwhile in the Oscar darling realms of voting, early screenings of Richard Jewell in Los Angeles have prompted suspicion that Kathy Bates might finally be back in an Oscar lineup (it's been 17 years since her comic turn in About Schmidt brought her her third and to date final nod). Perhaps we shouldn't have plopped her right into the lineup so soon but if we have misjudged we'll adjust next week after screening the picture.
Also rising in the charts this time: 75 year-old newbie Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), Oscar winner Octavia Spencer (Luce), and fresh revelation Taylor Russell (Waves) who all netted important Spirit nominations this week.
Reader Comments (32)
As big as Lopez is, showbiz legend seems a stretch.
She was once a good actor before she decided to be big in showbiz, and I agree with the point. Not sure she's a lock tho, not until the other films screen. Something throws me off, tho she's terrific in it.
I want buzz for Hagerty.
I pray that Zhao Shuzhen can end up in the top 5, obviously because hers is such a great performance, but also because I'd like the Academy to show, at least in regards to its acting categories, that it recognizes diversity also extends to East Asia as well.
Attended the Richard Jewell screening and her performance is entirely full bodied. Since Eastwood does less takes what she did never became artificial from being overworked. Strongest work from her this decade whether film or television.
I'm genuinely worried about an Oscar morning snub for JLo, which would be upsetting. I'd heard Rockwell was getting great buzz for Richard Jewell too. We may have to worry about a last minute Pic/Director appearance from Eastwood again, *sigh*.
I have thought too that Lopez could be snubbed if late breaking performances become liked more.
Apparently F v F is one everyone is sitting on,I think Letts has more of a shot than some think,his career in film has been building,big hit,the leads are probably going to cancel each other out,supporting nom from the big crowd pleasing everyone's seen it nominee.
Kathy Bates! Yes!
The Clint Eastwood train nobody thought it could pass by and suddenly it can get nominations for film, director, actor, supporting actor and actress, screenplay...
Kathy Bates deserves another nomination. She’s awesome
It will be interesting to see if some groups nominate Margot Robbie for HOLLYWOOD and some for BOMBSHELL. I can imagine SAG going for the former (since they often nominate earlier, more widely-seen releases) and the Globes for the latter. And critics' groups citing her for both.
What will be the Bryan Cranston in TRUMBO-type nomination that all the groups fall for and keep nominating that we've underestimated? Christian Bale in FORD v FERRARI?
@Steve G
Yes, for me it will be Bale.
.
I still think JLo is likely to be snubbed, because of the bias around her (pop star with a flopmography, playing an highly sexualized part and some people say she is difficult to work with, so Oscar voters might not have a good impression of her). And then, I'm starting to predict a Robbie snub due to vote splitting (à la ScarJo in 2003, but I'm conscious she's at a different stage of her career than Johansson was).
As for me, personally: #TeamZhao
My predictions:
#1 Dern, MARRIAGE STORY
#2 Pugh, LITTLE WOMEN
#3 Zhao, THE FAREWELL
#4 Johansson, JOJO RABBIT
#5 Bates, RICHARD JEWELL
Ed;
In 2003 they made the shameful and weird decision to push Scarlett as supporting in Lost In Translation, so she wasn't going up against Girl With A Pearl Earring.
@Me
Oh! I almost forgot that atrocious move. She got the Critic's Choice Award nod for Best Supporting Actress, but she was nominated everywhere in Lead. Guess the category placement was one more issue against her.
Maybe she can "avenge" her 2003 this year lol
LOL. Whatever X says is backwards day. Does Margot Robie get consideration because she is pretty? What about Elisabeth Moss or the grandma from the Awkwafina movie? They were memorable and don't even get consideration.
At least we know for sure there are no contenders from Sam Mendes' 1917.
Annette!!!!!
I have a sneaking suspicion that Octavia Spencer may receive some critics awards for Luce. Either her or Laura Dern. Would love to see her in contention for Luce, as she is great in it (better than all her previously nominated performances).
I think J.Lo is looking good for a nomination. And she is working for it. What I'm honestly curious about if Hustlers can make a dent in any other categories, namely Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, and Costume Design. It was a hit and critically well-received - it's also (I think) the perfect movie that can appeal to the Academy's now more diverse group.
Bates!
Go for gold Kathy.
I wonder....... maybe Dern and Lopez are locks for the nomination, but try this for an argument for them not winning: both characters rip off men. Despite all the membership changes over the past few years, is there still enough of an old misogynistic male membership to ensure that these "ball-breaker" (please read that phrase as sarcasm) characters don't win?
That would be sad. But it also makes me wonder if someone like Bates (playing one of their favourites: a sympathetic mother) comes through for a win in an upset?
I need to ponder that more...
I can taste the win for Bates.
@Travis C
A Bates victory is very possible in a Michael Clayton way. And Eastwood as directed previous lead acting winners to second Oscars in supporting before (Gene Hackman).
If Nai Nai is not nominated, I will be livid. LIVID I SAY! ;-)
I can’t wait ‘til JLo wins the Globe, everyone is convinced she’s gonna win an Oscar, and then the Academy of course goes for Laura Dern instead.
"Kathy Bates deserves another nomination. She’s awesome"
This isn't a good impersonation of me. I use punctuation. And I am rooting for Zhao Shuzhen to get the fifth slot.
Why is this fun for you? I genuinely don't get it.
The only thing you can taste is your dirty diaper.
And where is Meryl Streep? Surely she is still in the running or will she just sweep Emmy, Golden Globes, and SAG for BLL?
No Oscar campaign for Meryl. Her TV turn in BLL2 is better poised for a Golden Globe and Emmy.
Ooo I definitely don't see JLo as a shoo-in here, even if she hits GG/SAG (which I expect). Easy to fathom how someone like Shuzhen misses the televised precursors but still emerges on Oscar noms morning - and perhaps to JLo's expense.
@Jamie I hope she curls into the fetal postion and dies.
@JoBeth, just ignore all the annoying Streep fans on this site. Not worth your time.
/3rftful of crap, Joan Castleman, JoBeth Woodward … all the same disturbed creep. All good things must come to an end, including this website?
Wow. Always a pleasure to comment on this site!