Why Pedro Almodovar will be nominated at the Oscars
Monday, December 30, 2019 at 12:34PM 
Pedro Almodovar will be nominated for best director at the Oscars. Currently Bong Joon Ho, Martin Scorsese and Quentin Tarantino lead the pack. Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig, Sam Mendes, Todd Phillips and Taika Waititi are fighting for the 4th spot. The 5th is booked for Almodovar. He might not appear on any director shortlist before January 13th, but his name will be called on the day when it most matters. There are 3 reasons why he’ll be nominated...
1. He made a great movie
Pain and Glory debuted at the Cannes Film Festival. Made the rounds at the fall film festivals in North America. It was released in early October; and through the months it has been warmly received wherever it screened. Reviews are almost unanimously positive if not downright ecstatic. People love it and can't help but be moved by it. That final shot takes the breath away and opens the floodgates of emotions and tears. Antonio Banderas won many critics awards for his performance incluing the big two NYFCC and LAFCA.
2. He made the movie many in the directors branch would admire
In his 70th year Almodovar made his most personal film. He made a film about all the things that he’s been obsessed with throughout the years. He made an homage to himself and to his art. He made it collaborating with the people who’ve been most important to his career. He took from his life and the lives of his loved ones to feed his auto-fiction. And the result fused all these things together seamlessly. That is exactly what most directors wish they’d make as they enter the last phase of their careers. They will recognize the achievement and nominate him.
3. The Academy knows and loves Almodovar
Almodovar has been a working director since the 1970s. He’s one of a select group of mostly European directors whose every film is released in the US. He’s won 2 Oscars; foreign film for All About My Mother (1999) and Original Screenplay for Talk to Her (2002). Yes technically Spain won that first Oscar but yeah he’s a 2 time Oscar winner. The academy knows and loves his work and have recognized him before. They will watch the screener and vote for him.
Who are you predicting for the 4th and 5th slot?
Reader Comments (22)
LOL dangerous language... Screenplay is likely but I'm not betting on Director.
I'm still mystified on Tarantino being a lock but everyone seems to agree on that point.
I was really hoping for Baumbach/Gerwig but fear they will both miss now. They make my personal line up. I'd guess Mendes (who finally gets his "see, we were right" nod) and considering Jojo Rabbit is likely to hit their sweet spot, I'd guess Waititi. If it's any consolation, I'd happily choose Almodovar over those two, even though it's not one of my favorite films from him.
Please, not Phillips. Just please no.
I hope you’re right, Murtada! Since my favourites Sciamma, Diop, Scafaria don’t stand a chance and Claire Denis not even on the consideration list... ¡viva Pedro!
I haven’t seen it yet, but Mendes looks likely. It seems very much the “I AM DIRECTING!!” slot.
I'm a bit disappointed you wrote this, because, for a few weeks, I've been thinking this would be my "outsmart the pundits" prediction. Pain & Glory is Almodovar's 8 1/2 and Amarcord all in one. It's had the (semi-)misfortune to appear in the same year when Parasite has become the biggest foreign-language U.S. success since Pan's Labyrinth, but that won't keep directors from appreciating it. (I wouldn't be surprised if the writers gave it an original screenplay nomination, as well.)
One other reason, beyond those you've given, to expect Pedro to show up on the directors' list: it's a VERY insular branch, one that has shown a propensity over the years to nominate directors they've cited previously. If you look at who's received "surprise" nods in this category in the past decade, it's people like Payne (Nebraska), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), PTA (Phantom Thread), even the dread Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge). Commonality: all had been nominated for best director in the past -- as has Pedro, for Talk to Her.
And for people who worry two foreign-language efforts can't be nominated together -- 1976 (Seven Beauties/Face to Face) and last year (Roma/Cold War) say different.
I think Almodovar will be left out. My predictions: Mendes, Tarantino, Scorcese, Mangold, Joon Ho
I really want Greta and Pedro to get in. And Todd Philips not to show up there.
Baumbach and Mangold/Mendes/Phillips
Murtada, your post makes me cry. I am presenting Pedro - Bong - Scorsese - Mendes for weeks and no one listen to me. and the reason why I am thinking Pedro will be remembered has being said by you.
I really think that the academy could make a "Solomon's decision" and give the Oscars of Best Picture + Directing + Original Screenplay to Parasite, and International Film + Leading Actor to Pain and Glory.
Will be a hell of great moment if this happen. I am in faith that will occur.
0 or 5 nominations for "Pain & Glory" will be equally non-surprising to me.
@V.-AMEN!!!!!!!!!
murtada, i agree wholeheartedly. i also feel confident pedro's name will be on that list for all of the reasons you mention. it'll be heartbreaking if he misses. i think slot four is sam mendes' unequivocally.
Bravo to great Almodovar- a true cinema master
Finally one more person thinks the same as me.
Almodóvar will be one of 5 Directors nominated, alongside Scorsese, Mendes, Ho and Phillips ou Baumbach - I hope.
I suspect Mendes has the 4th slot sewn up and the other people you mention - Pedro included - are fighting for the last slot.
I wonder if the 'shock' nominee might be the Safdie brothers instead. They won the New York Film Critics' Circle prize and the film is doing great box office ($20m+ already!), despite being polarising. And it really does sound like a directorial achievement (it's not opened in Australia yet so I haven't seen it).
The arguments are generally sound, but in defense of the wrong player. Celine Sciamma will join Bong, Mendes, Scorsese, and QT in the Director shortlist.
Almodovar and Banderas will both miss out on nomination day.
I want Gerwig to get in, though I think Little Women is going to be viewed as a smart screenplay rather than great direction.
Of the likelier nominees, I think Taika Waititi is the least likely to get the final nomination. I also would not be surprised if Almodovar also misses and Clint Eastwood shows up again because the voters LOVE to surprise us with Clint Eastwood nominations when we don't expect them.
I also believe Pain and Glory could get 0 or 5 nods and it wouldn’t surprise me. I would love for Pedro to get nominated, at least as a sign that the very American Oscars are embracing foreign films more often. I hope you didn’t jinx it by writing this ;)
Also agree on the Safdie brothers. Maybe we are underestimating Uncut Gems, which has been showing up EVERYWHERE. It’s being released at the last time but the strategy seems to had worked so I wouldn’t bet on Adam Sandler not making it, and maybe even then in Screenplay or Director.
Pedro seems possible but a lot of the buzz for the film seems to be going towards Antonio. Side note, I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around Bong being a shoo-in for director (or film, or anything). A South Korean film has never even snagged a foreign language film nom, let alone anything else. It'll be great if that streak finally ends in grand style.
All this hoo-ha about Gerwig and LITTLE WOMEN when Céline Sciamma is standing right there.
Totally agree with the post... i find it hard to believe the director's branch will ignore Almodovar for all the reasons you just mentioned. Also, we should remember there has been an influx of new blood in the academy, last year we saw more international movies nominated across all categories and even categories having more than one foreign film nominated, so I'm sure there will be at least two non-english features in the director category like last year, also I'm very confident about Greta Gerwig... to me in nomination morning will be Quen Tarantino, Martin Scorsese, Bong Joon-Ho, Pedro Almodovar and Greta Gerwig, that been said I think the only person who would take Almodovar's or Gerwig's spot is Celine Sciamma.
Much as I would love to see Almodóvar nominated, I have a feeling, like others, it will be Céline Sciamma the other foreign language director nominated (assuming, of course, there will be two, and one will be Bong).
Celine Sciamma is a great choice, too. I'm worried Neon mishandled the release.
Point 4. He deserves to win. The film is an amazing challenge and he has created a perfect moebius band in this film. An unique achievement in film history, because he just revealed the true nature of the chronological structure of the film... in the final shot. My jaw is still dropped, and I dare to say that, despite some other masterpieces of 2019, Directing should be a locked win for Pedro.