Oscar Chart Updates - All Acting Categories
Monday, October 18, 2021 at 8:11PM by Nathaniel R
I'm just back from the Middleburg Film Festival, which we'll tell you more about soon, so I've mostly caught up with the Oscar hopefuls that have screened to date. The only true mysteries for us Oscar pundits now, other than how precursors will react, is the films that haven't screened very much or at all: West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Being The Ricardos, House of Gucci, and Don't Look Up. So let the revised punditry commence. The links go to the charts...
Is Lady Gaga still a big Best Actress deal -- people are impatient to see the actual HOUSE OF GUCCI now
BEST ACTRESS
Kristen Stewart has the lead but Spencer will be more polarizing than its first festival showings suggested (we think - it's all guesswork). The rest of the lineup is a mystery though Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Jessica Chastain (Eyes of Tammy Faye) looks strong for nominations. Can Jodie Comer place for The Last Duel or will people make a big deal about the rocky box office? A half dozen potential contenders still haven't screened much though -- will people love the performances by Rachel Zegler, Nicole Kidman, Lady Gaga, Jennifer Lawrence, Sandra Bullock, and Halle Berry in their forthcoming films?
Musicals have had rocky receptions this year but will TICK TICK BOOM starring Andrew Garfield turn the tide?
BEST ACTOR
Of all the acting races this one is the most clear as of October 18th with what feel like three sure things: Denzel Washington, Peter Dinklage, and Will Smith will probably be battling it out for the win but who will join them as nominees? We met with Clifton Collins Jr at Middleburg (interview soon) who is on the ongoing festival trail to promote Jockey and if Sony Pictures Classics really pushes we could see him in the lineup. It's the old Oscar story of "character actor finally gets a chance to carry a film and does so beautifully" that we've seen lead to first nominations for David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck) and Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) in recent years. But to get nominated for a small indie that's not hitting theaters until December 9th he'll have to get past much more famous men, like Andrew Garfield, Javier Bardem, and Benedict Cumberbatch among others in more-hyped productions. Who do you think the five nominees will be?
the most glamorous characters named "Ma". and "Pa" that you'll ever see - Caitronia Balfe and Jamie Dornan in BELFAST
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Can both Caitriona Balfe and Judi Dench land in the lineup for Kenneth Branagh's memoir Belfast? They could, yeah, as the whole ensemble is a delight and Balfe is glamorous and emotional as "Ma" and Dench funny and moving as "Granny". But currently we don't think they both will since this category is looking super-stacked. We still have high hopes for Toni Collette in the unseen Nightmare Alley (and that film also has Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara). Aunjanue Ellis has the "Oscar clips" we all talk about in the popular King Richard. Many are still rooting for that elusive first nomination for Kirsten Dunst in Power of the Dog. Ann Dowd is campaigning hard for the ensemble picture Mass (Martha Plimpton is also incredible in that film). Ruth Negga just dazzles in Passing. Sally Hawkins livens up Spencer. All the actresses are strong in The Lost Daughter. And we dont yet know what people will make of the acting in West Side Story, Don't Look Up, or Nightmare Alley which all could present viable contenders for this category, some of them quite famous!
In short, it's going to be a bloodbath and everyone will have a different take on who the five "Best" are.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Of the five categories here's the one that feels the fuzziest. There are no "sure things" yet for various reasons though Ciarin Hinds and Jamie Dornan are both very viable contenders for Belfast. We think of the two Hinds is more likely since, though they're both fine in the film, Oscar voters like older men in this category and have a weird tendency (in both male categories) to pretend that extremely hunky leading men can't act until they've aged past extreme hunkiness which could be a hindrance for Dornan. Woody Norman might be a strong possibility for C'mon C'mon. Oscar voters dont often nominate male children (the last one was Haley Joel Osment for The Sixth Sense) but if voters fall for the movie itself, he'll be hard to ignore since he's 50% of the reason why. Kodi Smit-McPhee could also place for Power of the Dog but we'll see since he has internal competition for attention. There are also several big question marks. Among them: Can West Side Story make a star of David Alvarez in a previously Oscar-winning role? Will the small size of Bradley Cooper's role matter since Oscar voters now prefer total leads in supporting categories? Can Reed Birney or Jason Isaacs get any attention for heart-rending work in Mass? Are any of the men in Nightmare Alley viable in this category?
The long point is -- you'll see on the chart -- there are a lot of options but none many have really made a mark that screams WILL BE NOMINATED or WILL WIN yet.
So check out the charts and report back. What are you feeling about the acting races?
Reader Comments (26)
Nathaniel, it breaks my heart but I too do not have Dunst in my top 5. It seems a rather passive role and like you said there is SO much competition in this category.
Stewart and Chastain bore me to tears. I see this year's race as the penance I have to pay after Frances sensational win.
P.S. Forever Team Plimpton over here. You should interview her.
Just FYI, you say of Udo Kier, “Oscar loves it when straight actors play gay,” and while that sentiment is very true in general, it doesn’t apply in this case since Udo Kier is openly gay and has been for decades.
I have to second the call for Martha Plimpton. The Emmy winner and Tony nominee is ready to grab an Oscar. And Hollywood loves nepotism. An Oscar for the daughter to follow Daddy’s win.
I have watched Mass twice. Plimpton refuses to amp up the rage, the grief, the loss to match traditional Oscar bait. The camera keeps catching Gail’s eyes shifting and weighing the words spoken. When finally she quietly speaks of her son coming home proudly drenched in mud from an all out effort to win his game, the remarks are measured as she discovers herself feeling pride, joy, and wonder - emotions she has closed off over the past six years since his brutal murder. The ensemble is magnificent, and for me Plimpton is breathtaking.
I think The Power of the Dog is going to be enough of a sure contender (especially compared to so many films that are only potential contenders like Tragedy of Macbeth or Cyrano) that Cumberbatch and Dunst feel fairly safe to me. Feels like Mank; Cumberbatch is like Oldman, getting in even without the buzz for a win, and Dunst is like Seyfried, not winning anything but safer for a nom in a volatile category.
Rooting for Clifton Collins Jr., but I fear critics attention will be split due to similar narratives for Simon Rex, Nicolas Cage and Udo Kier. Think Picture buzz will prevail and bring in someone like Bradley Cooper or Leonardo DiCaprio.
Struggle to see Chastain even nominated for Tammy Faye - the film seems like such a non-factor outside of actress, and to me screams of being this year's Daniel Bruhl/Rush, Hong Chau/Downsizing, Jared Leto/Little Things, Foster/Mauritanian - even with strong precursor support, people just won't seek out or remember the film as much and she'll miss for buzzier films.
I think you might be underestimating how easily McDormand can get in without problem due to her hot streak, and I see more weight in the buzz for Jodie Comer (higher profile due to the more famous stars/director, combined with a suffering sympathetic character), and even Jennifer Hudson (beloved, recently dead music icon - they love those). With all of the competition I struggle to see Zegler getting in (who was the last acting nominee from a Spielberg movie that wasn't a major industry veteran?)
Great as Negga is, she again feels like her film being less of a priority to voters than Belfast/Power of the Dog/King Richard/Mass will leave her just on the outside.
Then, supporting actor, who the hell knows? Anyone's guesses are good but my current bets are Cooper/Smit-McPhee/Dornan/Hinds/Isaacs with Affleck on the cusp.
I think the most surprising thing about this year is how unsurprising it's been. Sure there's been some movement in the charts but there have been no unexpected titles in festivals that suddenly burst into the top tier. Is this a result of fewer movies made because of production challenges, or were the longer term guesses just more on point?
Really pulling for Dakota, Kirsten, and MARTHA PLIMPTON this season. Kirsten especially can have a decent chance at winning.
Still unsure on House of Gucci though, but it does look fun. Doesn't Gaga also count as a biopic?
Best Actor is surprisingly very competitive too it seems.
I feel it coming... Bardem nominated for Best Actor, for Being the Ricardos - Desi and Lucille's daughter raved the film and their performers, already - and his two wives (fictional - Kidman - and real - Cruz) are also nominated in Lead Actress...
Could AMPAS resist this temptation?
“ In short, it's going to be a bloodbath and everyone will have a different take on who the five "Best" are.”
Oh how I pray that’s the case… lol. The race has been slightly more interesting recently so let’s hope.
So many talented actresses I would love to see nominated this year but especially holding out hope for Kirsten Dunst to finally snag her first nod. She has been my fav since childhood. <3
I think your top 4 in Best Actress are right on the money, but I do think McDormand will get the fifth spot. She has a lot of fans in AMPAS and her film will be a heavy-hitter (it's hard to imagine her missing a nomination for a BP nominee).
I know Balfe is praised, but I do wonder if she could miss for Dench at the last minute, for the same reasons I think McDormand will be nominated. I sometimes think voters just repeatedly vote for actors and actresses they like; this is why Meryl has so many nominations.
I know people are rooting for Campion, but I'm in Ridley Scott's camp at this point. He deserves to be an Oscar winner, and Campion already has one.
And I feel Plimpton's got a great shot. Talk about an Actor's actor.
I am so here for the four performances in MASS, and I haven't even seen the film. Always loved Plimpton and Ann Dowd is one of those actors who elevates any role. Jodie Comer is fantastic but I have no desire to trek to a theater, fully masked for 2 plus hours, to see THAT film.
Speaking of Jodie Comer, she was in a UK TV movie recently with Stephen Graham about a care home at the start of the pandemic. There's a sequence that is probably one of the most harrowing 15 minutes I've ever seen on television (I literally stopped breathing), and if anyone every doubted her abilities as an actor with range and a long varied career in front of her only needs to watch HELP.
Thank you for updating the charts, Nathaniel!
Here's what I'm currently thinking:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Clifton Collins Jr., Jockey
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Tyler - I like your predictions!
The Being the Ricardos trailer just dropped, and it's so hard to tell if this is going to be a film that works.
However, Bardem looks very good, and I think he could easily make it in ahead of Garfield. I think Garfield will struggle to get traction unless his film is a Best Picture nominee. That isn't the case with someone like Bardem, who has been on the cusp of his fourth Oscar nomination for quite a few years.
The last scene of Nicole looks fun, but it's really hard to tell. The voice over (from an older, deeper voiced Lucy maybe), really didn't help.
I'm betting Dench and Balfe get in. Maybe I'm overdetermining based on 2008-2011, but I feel like Oscar loves its double Supporting Actress nominations.
I agree Spencer is going to be much more polarizing than people anticipate. But I can see Stewart winning if there isn't a clear alternative (Oscar-less Chastain would seem like the best bet, but she's in a movie no one seems to have seen or particularly liked. Who else then? Recent winners Colman or McDormand? Supporting winners Cruz, in a foreign language film, or Hudson, in another movie no one seems to care about? I'm less bullish on House of Gucci than most, and I was thinking maybe Kidman until that trailer dropped today..)
I have to say I was underwhelmed by Kirsten and was hoping she was going to be nominated but i'm not so sure now,it didn't scream nominate me as much as McPhee did.
Either the 2 Mass actresses get in or the 2 Belfast ladies not both,Ellis seems the surest bet this far ahead,Hawkins has surprised before.
Collette could be a late breaking nominee and Negga needs a critics prize to stay in the hunt.
More confident on BActress being Cruz,Colman,Bennett,Chastain,Stewart.
It seems the internet has crowned it Denzel vs Will but Cooper or Bardem could surprise,fingers crossed for Collins.
FYI, Nathaniel (see charts): Bardem isn't playing Desi Arnaz, Jr. (their son) but Poppa Desi himself.
Perfect time for a McDormand snub... A Frances McSnubbed sounds great!
Once again, Nathaniel: it’s CAITRIONA, baby! It’s not as difficult as “Gwyneth Paltrow”. I hope you learn her correct name until nominations morning.
antonio -- as much as i appreciate the correction (fixed) it is in no way simpler than Gwyneth which is spelled exactly how it sounds and we've heard it sounded out a million times from the early 90s onward. Not only do i not know how to spell Caitriona but i also dont know how it sounds out loud as I've only heard her name spoken at the Globes (and no other awards show and i dont remember how it's pronounced)
Mr Ripley -- who is "mcphee?" not sure i'm following
@Nathaniel - It's pronounced exactly the same as "Katrina." It's simply the Gaelic version
@Michael - Thank you!
@Nat I meant Kodi Smitt-McPhee.
There are a lot of exciting possibilities this year. I haven’t seen many of the films in contention but I’m very hopeful we’ll see some first noms for journeymen/vets like Plimpton, Dunst, Dowd, Collins Jr. Or so far unrecognised stars like Stewart/Dornan.
I think I’m most excited for the the possibility of Oscar nominee Simon Rex… how great would that be? & the possible return of Collette, Berry, Hudson (it’s still possible, right?).
@Nathaniel - thank you, dear. Gwyneth is definitely harder (I presume) for us outside the “english world”. Before the 1999 Oscars I’ve had no idea how to speak her name correctly. Sorry about the language barrier.
BTW, how many Razzies do you think Dear Evan Hansen will get as I heard the film just bombed on VOD.
Is it just me or is Will Smith doing the same-old-same-old for King Richard? I certainly don't see anything impressive about that performance.