Best Supporting Actor is unusually confusing for mid-November!
Saturday, November 20, 2021 at 4:05PM by Nathaniel R
19 of the Oscar hopefuls in this category
If you've been reading The Film Experience for more than a year you already know that we do our best to avoid the typical Punditry habit of giving out Oscar statues before nominations are even announced. That's the super gross reductive part of Punditry and its far more exciting (and generous) to focus on who might and who should be nominated. Every once in a while the awards gods will comply and throw us a truly confusing race. Such is the case with Best Supporting Actor this season.
Depending on how you look at it there are anywhere from 10-20 contenders still in play and this is just the way we like it...
In short, force people to truly CONSIDER the field before the precursors awards cut off the dreams of more than half of them. In a more perfect world, precursors wouldn't do that much to winnow the field since what is the point of 40 awards organizations if they all have the same taste? But all awards bodies are made up of actual people and people are social creatures who are influenced by each other. So, the earlier and more your name is called out the more it's likely to be called out again and again whether you have a solid or dubious claim to the "best" adjective.
ARE THERE ANY SURE THINGS YET?
We think not, actually. Sure, Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan have great shots at the shortlist and a headstart as the grandfather and dad in Belfast but we'd wager that neither are truly locked since Supporting Actor doesn't go for two performances from the same film all that often (it happens far more often in Supporting Actress). It's easy to picture scenarios wherein only one of them makes it. But which? Hinds has the kind of career in which you could picture him actually winning if nominated, but Dornan's role is larger and he's really out there on the circuit, becoming the face of the film. He's being such a great campaign sport that he even recently recreated his onscreen musical number "Everlasting Love" for a premiere event.
BEST PICTURE WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IF THE FIELD STAYS VOLATILE
Anyone who follows the Oscar race annually knows that Best Picture heat has a coattails effect on practically every other category. But the tricky part for supporting actors this year is that most of the wannabe contenders are in movies that arguably do have Best Picture heat. In short it's a great year for male ensemble players. People who could benefit from not just their own acting but the strength of their films include Kodi Smit McPhee or Jesse Plemons in Power of the Dog, and our 'no guts not glory' actual prediction is ubiquitous Jon Bernthal as an exasperated tennis coach in King Richard. He's worked with everyone and he's memorable in the film.
OSCAR DARLINGS
Given the field of contenders we could have an all first-time nominees shortlist which would be exciting. But it's foolish to count out previous winners or frequent nominees as there's already proof that Oscar voters appreciate their work. Jared Leto and Al Pacino in House of Gucci, Mark Rylance or Jonah Hill in Don't Look Up, and J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos will benefit this season IF voters want to rubberstamp past winners or nominees. Though he's never been nominated for acting, two-time Oscar winner (Pictured/Screenplay) Ben Affleck has been an also ran a few times before for his performances. Last year he definitely had some 'isn't it time to nominate him?' momentum for The Way Back. Could Tender Bar gain traction?
Finally, though a lot of pundits are counting out Bradley Cooper for Licorice Pizza, I personally am not. It's not truly a cameo (as you have been hearing) as he has two scenes and since P.T. Anderson loves to hold the camera for long scenes to let performances breath and actors play, Cooper is hilarious and memorable in it. People have been nominated for a lot less than what he does here.
HAVEN'T SCREENED YET
Nobody's yet seen Nightmare Alley at this writing but maybe someone will stand out and if that someone is Willem Dafoe he'd also qualify for the "Oscar darling" boost. West Side Story starts screening in a week, too, so we'll know then if the screen debut of David Alvarez as "Bernardo" is a possibility here.
LOVEABLE LONGSHOTS
We really hope precursor bodies will consider terrific supporting men that aren't obvious shoo-ins for Oscar nominations (for various reasons): Woody Norman gives an astounding child star performance in C'mon C'mon, Colman Domingo is Zola's secret weapon, Jason Isaacs and Reed Birney are both amazing in the acting showcase Mass, Troy Kotsur is truly affecting in CODA's two best scenes, and two time Tony nominee Robin De Jesus give his best screen performance to date in tick, tick... BOOM!
Meanwhile, I'm on record as not being a huge fan of Spencer, but it has huge fans and some of them will be rooting for never-nominated-and-we-should-change-that character actor Timothy Spall.
UPDATED CHARTS
BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ORIGINAL/ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ACTRESS
BEST ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR *updated just now*
Reader Comments (28)
Hmm. I see Richard Jenkins in The Humans listed on the charts in the also ran sub list. I think the two time Oscar nominee playing a role that won a Tony probably has a better shot than that.
I don't agree the Smit-McPhee is outside the top 5 right now, but I agree that Cooper can still get in. As great as the reviews have been for Alana Haim, he's still kind of the face of Licorice Pizza.
I see it as Hinds and Smit-McPhee, with some combo of Simmons, Bernthal, Cooper, Dornan, with the Gucci boys as spoilers.
Which reminds me, if we get two Guccis in one category, can we find a way to let Elsie Fisher present it?
Mike -- brilliant idea!
three time tony nominee robin de jesus
I know there's no chance, but I would think an international superstar in the highest-grossing movie of the year which also received pretty damn good reviews bears a mention. Or am I alone in hoping Tony Leung in SHANG-CHI can get some traction somewhere, anywhere?
Do we know if Lindon is going lead or supporting? He's basically half of a lead performance, so I don't know where that lands him.
I'd love to see Kotsur, Isaacs and De Jesus get in. Add Smit-McPhee and that'd be one hell of a category.
At this moment I want tick tick...Boom! to win as many major awards as possible, including Best Supporting Actor. I haven't enjoyed a movie this much since...well...In the Heights. (And I am not a fan of Rent.) Just got home from a screening and it made me really look forward to Belfast, Being the Ricardos, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza and Nightmare Alley. More movie-movies, please!
The Precursors might shed light on who will win, but if this field remains wide open we will probably have a category of men riding a wave of the film's love and/or men who have a passionate base. A wide open field is the only way I see Tony Leung getting in but right now it is not an impossibility. Belfast, Power of Dog, Mass, and House of Gucci are all submitting multiple names and if they cancel each other out and if Nightmare Alley or West Side Story are critical/commercial bombs, who know who will get in.
the only way i see Bradley Cooper getting in is as coattail if Licorice Pizza is a huge hit with voters and ends up overperforming, which is not impossible, but as of now i think it's up for grabs
and as much i like Jamie Dornan the idea of Focus making him sing Everlasting love for the next 4 months or so is cringe-inducing, i already hate that clip from Belfast
Mass sounds like the type of movie that actors will love.
@Ryan T. Critics polled by the LA Times sure seem to be pushing the "Tony Leung in SHANG-CHI option." If they keep it up, it could move the needle to where it needs to be for it to happen.
Sorry @Ryan T. and Dan H, if Michael B. Jordan couldn't make it in for Best Picture contender Black Panther, I have a hard time seeing Tony Leung getting in for Shang Chi (though I'd love to be wrong, just to be able to say Academy Award nominee Tony Leung for the rest of time).
@Nathaniel, after seeing King Richard tonight, I think your Jon Bernthal positivity is pretty inspired. If it's the across the board contender people seem to think it is, I could see him getting a coattails nom.
FYC : Simon Helberg, ANNETTE
"I see it as Hinds and Smit-McPhee, with some combo of Simmons, Bernthal, Cooper, Dornan, with the Gucci boys as spoilers."
That's the way i'm thinking too,personally I would like Kodi to win but i've not seen very much.
@Nat do you think if Passing gets key nods they could bring in Andre Holland who I thought was excellent in the film alongside the sublime Thompson and Negga.
Charlie -- Love Helberg.
Annette is still my favourite movie of the year.
Jon Bernthal has a very forgettable performance in King Richard. Watched the movie yesterday and it's already ageing badly in my brain. Cliche from start to finish. Will Smith is playing the parent who would do anything for his kids. Aunjanue Ellis is playing the brave wife who stands up to her husband when he's an ass. Zero aspects of this movie are surprising.
@DanH: Thanks for that tidbit. Glad some people are championing.
@Jonathan: Oh, I know the chances are slim to none, but I still think he should be IN the conversation, don't you? 16 of the people Nat mentions here in the article won't be getting nominated either.
I agree that Kodi Smit-McPhee should be top 5 (simply based on buzz; I'm seeing the film on Wednesday).
I also agree regarding Jon Bernthal's slim chances - I was pleasantly surprised by how much I liked the film, but there's no way he should get a nomination over the young actresses who play Venus and Serena (who, let's face it, have no chance). He's the fifth best performance in that film at best.
Jamie Dornan may get in, but I think dozens of other actors could do what he did in Belfast. There was nothing unique about that performance.
I wish Troy Kotsur or Vincent Lindon could make some waves. And I'd love to see Garfield have a double nomination year. Alas, I never agree with the supporting actor line-up...
@Ryan T, absolutely. When I said "Sorry" I meant it genuinely! Chances are he'll be better than at some of the eventual nominees, but you can probably say that about any performance he's ever given.
At this point in the season and with such an uncertain field, I think we should all be championing our favorites, regardless of their actual likelihood to get in! So let me throw Jimmy Smits's hat into the ring for In the Heights. He was the real heart of that movie for me, and it's a shame that it's pandemic-affected box office troubles seem to have sapped it of any awards heat.
Even as long shots, we could consider:
Delroy Lindo in “The Harder They Fall”. My vote for MVP of that movie. Sharp, concise, physically grounded (and not burdened with the maudlin backstory Elba and Majors have to carry). Lindo seemed so close to an Actor nomination last year, why not look at him for Supporting this year?
Benedict Wong in “Nine Days”. I love this actor (he also plays Wong in the Dr. Strange series). His acting duet with Winston Duke is one where both shine.
I haven’t seen “In the Heights”, but years have shown us that “Jimmy Smits makes everything better”.
And I’m not sure that the genres of sci-fi and fantasy mean an actor can’t be considered. Grounding those kind of narratives in a short space of time is quite an acting feat.
So I would consider Jason Momoa in “Dune”. He’s just right in every scene, he’s one of everyone’s favourite characters, he adds heart and fun to the movie.
So I’d also consider Tony Leung. His charisma and narrative drive makes the movie more plausible. Although Simu Liu’s sigh, Oh Dad, you’ve got it all wrong, struck me as the most realistic sentence ever uttered in a Marvel movie.
I have to co-sign the Jimmy Smits love. Actually, I wish there were room for In the Heights to make a big Oscar comeback - its box office performance was just fine, the victim of inflated expectations, given the relative performance of films released since June. It's still my favorite American film of the year.
@Jonathan: You make a good point, but there is a difference between something having <1% chance of getting a nomination and something having, say, 3% chance of getting a nomination. Leung is a legend whose position at this point is closer to Alec Guinness in STAR WARS and Ian McKellen in FELLOWSHIP OF THE RINGS than Michael B. Jordan in BLACK PANTHER. I wouldn't bet money on something with a 3% chance of happening actually happening, but 3%, rather than <1%, takes it from "not gonna happen" to "theoretically possible," don't you think?
I'm also hoping there's a comeback for IN THE HEIGHTS in terms of awards prospects. Less so for Jimmy Smits and more for its technical achievements and Olga Merediz.
I mean yes it underperformed box office wise, but compared to A LOT of films in contention (and similar films of its ilk), it didn't do too badly. Just this weekend, KING RICHARD did half what IN THE HEIGHTS opened with. And not for nothing, it's also the highest-grossing musical this year (yes caveats and considerations and so far of course). Expectations!
thanks a lot
very good post
شیرآلات هانس گروهه نیکیسان کالا
thanks a lot
very good post
شیرآلات هانس گروهه نیکیسان کالا
People really got to drop the Cooper-mania. He's not getting in for both categories. In this category, it's a glorified cameo at best. Just enough of the hype already. 10 nominations in such a short period of time would be an overkill.
Re: the Tony Leung chatter
I think this role might very well serve to put the idea of “Oscar nominee Tony Leung” in people’s heads enough that he’ll have a much easier time getting nominated for a different movie within the next few years if there’s any buzz. But I frankly don’t think he’s considered overdue by as many people as we might assume here. He’s a legend among cinephiles, but to the vast majority of people who saw Shang-Chi, that was probably the first movie they’ve ever seen him in. And unfortunately that includes a lot of Oscar voters, because Wong Kar-wai and Hou Hsiao-hsien films aren’t exactly well known among people outside the community of devoted cinephiles who pay attention to world cinema. This is really the first time Tony Leung has been in a movie that’s gotten mainstream attention in America. So while he’s one of my favorite actors of all time and certainly a legend to a certain type of film fan, I don’t really buy the argument that he’s considered overdue by that many of the people who have an influence over Oscar nominations.
And besides that, nobody has yet been nominated for acting in a Marvel movie, and I think in order for that to ever happen, it’s going to take a performance that is absolutely undeniable.