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« Best International Film: Luxembourg, Paraguay, Switzerland | Main | Best International Film: China, India, Indonesia »
Friday
Dec172021

Oscar Finalist List Predictions! 

DateFriday, December 17, 2021 at 3:11PM

by Nathaniel R

On Monday (December 21st) we'll be hearing the Oscar finalists list in the 10 categories that use that process to winnow down the vast array of possibilities before nomination balloting. There were 9 previously but Oscar has added Sound into the mix this year. That category has had quite a rollercoaster of late, given that it was two categories just two years ago, it was conjoined for 2020, and now it joins the "bakeoff" groups; in short it's getting smaller and smaller each year! After Monday's massive reveal we can really dig in to each Oscar race (and closely revamp each Oscar chart) individually. Isn't it strange that the finalist lists in these 10 categories are coming so much earlier than the actual nomination ballots (which don't go out for another 5 and a 1/2 weeks.

Anyway, let's quickly predict the finalist lists, shall we? You can use this cheat sheet to laugh at me or praise me later, depending on my success rate. If there's a link we've previously written about the picture...

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
138 eligible titles

Predicted 15

 

 

5 Alternates:

 

 

In addition to my guess-work in this category (and I am not anything like an expert on documentaries since you can't be on all film types) our Doc Corner hero Glenn Dunks also did his predictions during an overview piece about the 138 eligible titles. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
93 eligible titles

Predicted 15

 

 

5 Alternates:

  • France -Titane (yes, for 'no guts no glory' purposes, I'm going to predict a surprise absence from the 15 finalist list -- that'll get people talking about this insane picture again!)
  • Kosovo - Hive (buzz has been sooo quiet since Sundance wins, right?)
  • Romania - Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn
  • Poland - Leave No Traces
  • Slovakia - 107 Mothers  (i can't be the only huge fan of this movie. I refuse to believe it!) 

 

Important Note: For reasons we haven't fully understood, Best Animated Feature doesn't use this narrow-down process even though the other two "specialty" feature prizes (Documentary and International Feature) do. For this category, the voters choose the 5 nominees directly from the eligibility list. So this year they have 26 features (down from 27last season) to narrow down to five. Updated Animation Prediction Chart page. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
137 eligible scores - Unfortunately no corraborating list is available

Predicted 15

 

 

5 Alternates:

 

A couple more notes: Variety has revealed that at least five high profile films (Ghostbuster Afterlife, House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, A Quiet Place Part 2, and Respect) are not eligible in this category -- probably due to too much pre-existing music though the Academy has not released a statement since they no longer even reveal the eligibility lists. We also know, without the help of the trades, that we won't see any of the big musicals here since their scores aren't "original".

As for things we aren't predicting, it's a pity to exclude Mica Levi's Zola score but we doubt AMPAS will be tracking that picture. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
84 eligible songs - Unfortunately no corraborating list is available

Predicted 15

 

5 Alternates: 

 

  • Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road - "Right Where I Belong"
  • Cruella - "Call Me Cruella"
  • Dear Evan Hansen - "Anonymous Ones"
  • The Green Knight - "Blome Swete Lilie Flour"
  • Vivo -"Keep the Beat"

 

BEST SOUND
unknown amount of eligible films

Predicted 10

 

 

10 Alternates because they've never done this before and who knows...

 

  • Cyrano
  • Don't Look Up
  • Free Guy
  • The French Dispatch
  • The Last Duel
  • Licorice Pizza
  • The Matrix Ressurection
  • Spider-Man No Way Home
  • A Quiet Place Part II
  • tick tick BOOM!

 

One more note: Isn't it strange that this is the first year of finals for Sound and they aren't even giving them a longlist of 15 but straight down to 10. For the first time we'll be able to see how powerful "Best Picture" is in the Sound race or if the longlist will lean unexpectedly heavily into noisier franchise titles. We've seen in Best Original Score (once they added the longlist process) that a lot of mainstream franchise were heavily considered even if they didn't land in the nominated shortlist.

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
unknown amount of eligible films

Predicted 10 

 

 

5 Alternates:

 

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Unknown amount of films eligible

Predicted 10:

 

 

5 Alternates:

 

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
BEST ANIMATED SHORT

As with score and song, the Academy no longer releases the long lists of eligibility so it's practically a full time job to keep track of it and even then you'll 1000% miss some. The best you can do is try to track qualifying awards at literally hundreds of different festivals (very difficult) or to follow sites that specialize in shorts -- for instance Cartoon Brew has in the past done good work trying to suss out which animated shorts are in the mix -- and sometimes publicists will let you know on individual titles but other than that it's flying blind. The shorts can qualify with no press four-walling theatrical releases (it's not just "qualifying festivals") so this year we'll just have to wait for the finals to investigate the few that remain standing. It's a pity though because we sure loved investigating those long lists of eligibility until the Academy bizarrely stopped sharing them a couple of years back. 

AuthorNATHANIEL R | Sold Out Show | |
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Reader Comments (7)

Before I clicked on the article to read your predictions, I was ready to comment that my bold prediction was Titane being left off the finalist list, but then I saw you also predicted that! But yeah, I just feel that snub coming, although I agree it would hopefully at least get people talking about it again. I figured it and Worst Person in the World would have won a lot more critics’ prizes in the International Film category than they have, but Drive My Car is emerging as the clear favorite.

This is also one of those years when the Visual Effects winner is so obvious even before the finalists are announced (it’s Dune, in case anyone is actually doubting that) that they almost might as well just give it to Dune as a special, non-competitive Oscar like they used to do sometimes in years when there wasn’t much competition.

December 17, 2021 | Registered CommenterEdwin

I would be shocked if the Academy shortlisted India's Pebbles. It has an entirely different sensibility than the average Oscar submission-- incredibly slow sometimes, zany at others, and a whole lot of screaming and physical abuse throughout. A very difficult watch indeed, aesthetically as much as content. If it were screened at an official Academy screening back in the day, the flashlights would have been up on the screen in less than 5 minutes.

I wouldn't count out Chad, Indonesia, Lebanon, Malta, the Netherlands, or Somalia, especially over more middling films like Germany and Spain (though both have the celebrity angle, I guess).

It is a very bad year for the Americas in this category. The Academy will need to be much more friendly toward African and Asian cinema than they normally are to avoid the "too Eurocentric" thinkpieces.

December 17, 2021 | Registered CommenterEvan

Almost with you on the international films list, except I would exchange Georgia, India (no way this is going to get it! Not even close to the par!), Russia and Spain.
I'd go with Sweden, Kosovo, Egypt and... France... (although I personally didn't like it... Personally I'd go for the last sport with either Estonia, Jordan, Taiwan, Romania, Bhutan, Panama or Iceland), but I'm still 25 films short of seeing all 93, so there may be surprises with these also.
With docs I would go with:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
In the Same Breath
Loneliest Whale: The Search for 52
Lost Leonardo
Most Beautiful Boy in the World
Not Going Quietly
President
Procession
Rebel Hearts
Rescue
Sparks brothers
Summer of Soul
Try Harder!

I hope that "Snowy" gets forward in doc shorts category, although it's far from the kind that usually do.(it's up on Vimeo page) :)
I don't know if anybody else needs this, but here is the long list of doc shorts submitted this year:
57 days (57 dias)
84
Ain't no time for women (IDA nominee)
All riders
Alturas
Audible (Critics choice nominee)
B.L.I.N.D.
The Beauty President
Bree Wayy Promise witness remembrance
A broken house (IDA nominee)
The brother
Camp confidential: America's secret nazis (Critics choice nominee)
Coded: the hidden love of JC Leyendecker
The communion of my cousin Andrea
Dajla - Cinema and oblivion
Day of rage: How Trump supporters too the US Capitol (Critics choice nominee)
Dear Philadelphia
Dial home
The doll (Critics choice nominee)
Don't go tellin your momma
Dora Sena
Eagles(Aguilas) (IDA nominee)
Eagles rest in Liangshan
Elena
The facility
The fantastic
Farmer - A Way of life
Father Mychal's blessing
Firefly
first birthday after the apocalypse
From devil's breath
From West Baltimore chasing dreams
Garage romantic
God was here
The golden buttons
The invisible monster
Joe Buffalo (IDA nominee)
The last cruise (Critics choice nominee)
The last Miller
Lead me home
The leaf
Listen to the beat of our images
Lost contact
The love and death of Josef and Zilli
Lynching postcards - Token of a great day
Mama
Meltdown in Dixie
Mission Hebron
My uncle Tudor (won the Berlinale - a story by a girl, who's uncle molested her - told in a special way)
Not just a name
Nothing to declare
One all the way
Petit Rat
The queen of Basketball (Critics choice nominee)
Rip t-shirts
Right to try
Rise up
Say his name - Five days for George Floyd
Seahorse
The seeker
Sensitive data
Shadows of your childhood
The siege
Snowy (Critics choice nominee)
Sophie & the Baron
Spirit never dies, only transitions
Takeover
Team Meryland
They won't call it murder
This day won't last
Three songs for Benazir
To grow under a wild cherrytree
A niew from above
VO
What you'll remember
When they're gone
When we were bullies
Why didn't you stay for me
Your street (Deine strasse)

Last year there were 114 shorts submitted, this year just 80... But regardless - total running time of these is over 32 hours!

December 18, 2021 | Registered CommenterKris

Kris - where did you get this list? (and the numbers) the Academy doesnt publish these anymore which makes me crazy.

December 18, 2021 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

I have a friend who is voting, so let's keep this just The Film Experience "exclusive" ;)

December 18, 2021 | Registered CommenterKris

Here is also the longlist of animated shorts (sorry for typos, I wrote them down one by one):
Affairs of the art
Any instant whatever
Are you okay?
Aurora
Bad mood
Bad seeds (Mauvaises herbes)
Barking orders
Beast (La Bestia)
Bestia
Bite of bone
Black Hole!
Blue Malone - Impossible cases
Blush
Bones (Huesos)
Boob fairy (La fee des Roberts)
Boxballet
Boy and the mountain (El Nina e la montana
Broken candle
Cat
Chimney swift
Crowded
Demi's Panic
Devil in the pocket
Easter eggs
Far from the tree (Disney)
Farce
Flowing home
Footsteps on the wind
Freeebird
Good and better
Gravedad
Hangman at home
Heart of gold (Un coeur d'Or)
Her song
Hide
Homebird
Hot flash
I'm a pebble (Je suis un Coillou)
In the shadow of pines
Innocent friendship
It's all the salts fault (Todo es culpa de la sal)
Life's a Bitch (russian film)
Louis' shoes
Matilda and the Spare head
Memento Mori
Migrants
Mila
Monster Pets /Hotel Transylvania short
Mum is pouring rain
Namoo
Natural death of a mouse
Navozande, the Musician
Night bus
Nona
Normal
On/Off
Only a child
Our perpetual now
Owl and the pussycat
Pearl diver
Peel (Ecorce)
Robin Robin
Routine the prohibition (Rutina la prohibicion)
Runaway bunny
September 12th: Reflections on September 11th from and AirlineWorker
Shaman's apprentice
Slumber with snakes
Source of the mountains
Souvenir, Souvenir
Step into the river
Zolle Suite
Tulip
Twenty something
Unforgotten
Us again
Welcome Home
Village bride
Windshield wiper
Would have

December 18, 2021 | Registered CommenterKris

thank you!

December 18, 2021 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R
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