SAG Predictions
Saturday, April 3, 2021 at 9:32PM 
by Nathaniel R
The Screen Actors Guilds are on Easter Sunday this year. How bizarre right? Blame the Grammys which moved into their previous date sending SAG scrambling. What will win this year? Who knows but here are off the cuff predictions in each category will, could, and should wins just for the hell of it. Do share your own feelings in the comments, won'cha?
BEST ACTRESS
- Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
WILL WIN: This is actually tough to guess...
Only one of the women is in a film with a cast nomination (Viola Davis) and while she might win, we're going to guess that that's too much of the Chadwick honoring party to pull this win off. In the absence of competition from Andra Day this is between Frances McDormand and Carey Mulligan. With McDormand winning recently at SAG (for Three Billboards) we think this is Carey's to lose.
COULD WIN: Frances McDormand obviously.
SHOULD WIN: Undecided. No seriously. I keep shifting my gold silver and bronze medals around in my own Best Actress list. Oscar night is going to be so tense in this category! SAG does not finish this particular conversation since Andra Day is up for the Oscar and might well win given their obsession with musician biopics.
BEST ACTOR
- Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins, The Father
- Gary Oldman, Mank
- Steven Yeun, Minari
WILL WIN: It's the exact same lineup as the Oscars and the result will be the same: Chadwick Boseman to honor his career.
COULD WIN: Anyone. But only if they have a collective stroke of inspiration and give Boseman supporting instead to open us this field.
SHOULD WIN: Anthony Hopkins since he's never won this prize and this is his seventh nomination. It will be sad if he doesn't win *anything* for this majestic performance and this would be the perfect place since Chadwick did already win a SAG trophy unlike the other showbiz awards which have their first and last opportunity to honor him. ("Outstanding Cast" for Black Panther)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman, The Father
- Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari
- Helena Zengel, News of the World
WILL WIN: A very interesting contest. Maria Bakalova won the Critics Choice, the unnominated Jodie Foster won the Globe, and now who will it be? We're tempted to say Close for career honors but she JUST won the SAG (which we think they will remember since it was just two years ago as a "career" style tribute for The Wife. So we think this is Bakalova's to lose
COULD WIN: Glenn Close if they didn't feel that The Wife was tribute enough.
SHOULD WIN: Youn Yuh-Jung.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
- Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
- Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Jared Leto, The Little Things
- Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami
WILL WIN: Daniel Kaluuya is a sweeper. (it always helps to have a leading role in supporting contests)
COULD WIN: Chadwick Boseman. But only if they decide to reward him here instead of in lead which would be strange but theoretically possible
SHOULD WIN: Sacha Baron Cohen since it's actually a supporting role.
STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
- Da 5 Bloods
- Mulan
- News of the World
- Trial of the Chicago 7
- Wonder Woman 1984
WILL WIN: This award is so new it's tough to say which way it might swing. The last three winners have all been superhero pictures which gives Wonder Woman 1984 the edge. On the other hand people really don't like that movie very much. We're going to guess Da 5 Bloods as it's the only picture (other than Chicago 7 which is a very confusing nominee in this category) that's also up for Outstanding Cast.
COULD WIN: Wonder Woman 1984
SHOULD WIN: Our vote would go to Mulan which feels like it has actual human beings flying around rather than CGI's sorta humans in WW1984
BEST CAST OF A MOTION PICTURE
- Da 5 Bloods
- Minari
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- One Night in Miami
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
WILL WIN: I've heard a lot of people saying Minari due to the surge of love for that movie. Which is real. But I'm choosing to be pessimistic and say "most cast" will equal "best cast" to SAG voters and this will be Chicago 7's big win since it won't be taking Best Picture at the Oscars.
COULD WIN: Minari if the love is intense and real. And wouldn't that be something for Korean casts to win two years consecutively!!!
SHOULD WIN: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom or One Night in Miami because the casts are so very strong across the board... even in the minor roles. Neither of which feel all that likely to win. Go figure.
TELEVISION PRIZES
Best Male Actor in a Drama Series
- · Jason Bateman, Ozark
- · Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
- · Josh O’Connor, The Crown
- · Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
- · Regé-Jean Page, Bridgerton
WILL WIN: We're going to guess that overall sentiment is with Bridgerton and with the Regé-Jean Page leaving the series in season 2 as the attention shifts to another eligible bachelor they'll want to reward him.
COULD WIN: Josh O'Connor since The Crown has been doing very well at awards shows. Bateman and Brown have both won for these roles before at SAG and if they're torn they could also return to an old favourite.
Best Female Actor in a Drama Series
- · Gillian Anderson, The Crown
- · Olivia Colman, The Crown
- · Emma Corrin, The Crown
- · Julia Garner, Ozark
- · Laura Linney, Ozark
WILL WIN: Anderson and Corrin have both picked up trophies for this show already at other awards shows. We think it's between them so let's say Gillian Anderson as she's more widely known among voters.
COULD WIN: Olivia Colman is the only returning nominee from last season (and she lost last season). But also... when is it going to be The Lovely Laura Linney's turn? This is her third nomination for Ozark and ninth overall at SAG. She's won once before for the miniseries John Adams.
Best Male Actor in a Comedy Series
- · Nicholas Hoult, The Great
- · Daniel Levy, Schitt’s Creek
- · Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
- · Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
- · Ramy Youssef, Ramy
WILL WIN: SAG is *very* fond of repeat wins in this particular category but this year all of the nominees are new! So our guess is Jason Sudeikis with Ted Lasso the new hot comedy series and giving them a chance to have a new frequent winner.
COULD WIN: One of the Levys if they want to say goodbye to Schitt's Creek
Best Female Actor in a Comedy Series
- · Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
- · Linda Cardellini, Dead to Me
- · Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
- · Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek
- · Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
WILL WIN: Catherine O'Hara is the only holdover nominee from last year (and she lost) and this is their last chance to honor her or the show. They'll take it.
COULD WIN: Kaley Cuoco if they're tired of Schitt's Creek being honored. But we doubt it.
Best Male Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
- · Bill Camp, The Queen’s Gambit
- · Daveed Diggs, Hamilton
- · Hugh Grant, The Undoing
- · Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
- · Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True
WILL WIN: Tough to predict. So let's say goodwill for Mark Ruffalo's career makes the difference.
COULD WIN: Bill Camp IF they get brave and want to honor a supporting role in this category and really love that series which they might.
Best Female Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
- · Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
- · Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You
- · Nicole Kidman, The Undoing
- · Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
- · Kerry Washington, Little Fires Everywhere
WILL WIN: Anya Taylor-Joy has the heat for The Queen's Gambit and we don't see that heat cooling any time soon.
COULD WIN: Michaela Cole if they're feeling adventurous.
Best Ensemble in a Drama Series
- · Better Call Saul
- · Bridgerton
- · The Crown
- · Lovecraft Country
- · Ozark
WILL WIN: Against our better judgment because The Crown is so well loved and keeps winning prizes we're going to predict that Bridgerton surprises to take this group trophy.
COULD WIN: The Crown which is the only previous winner in this category. It probably will. We just want to look super prescient if Bridgerton surprises.
Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series
- · Dead to Me
- · The Flight Attendant
- · The Great
- · Schitt’s Creek
- · Ted Lasso
WILL WIN: The Marvelous Mrs Maisel has won this category the past two years but wasn't nominated this time making this an easy get for... Schitt's Creek in its last season.
COULD WIN: Ted Lasso if they want to just move on to their NEXT perennial winner.
Best Stunt Ensemble in a TV Series
- · The Boys
- · Cobra Kai
- · Lovecraft Country
- · The Mandalorian
- · Westworld
WILL WIN: This one is very difficult to predict with so little info about what voters like in this category. You see for 8 out of the past 9 years this award went to Game of Thrones. Westworld is the only returning nominee. People love Cobra Kai but do they love it seriously or just nostalgically. People love Mandalorian but will they feel the need to give it this? Throwing caution to the wind we're going to say that here is where they stump for the brilliant messy busy crazy riveting Lovecraft Country.
COULD WIN: The Mandalorian.
Minari, SAG, Trial of the Chicago 7, precursor awards
Reader Comments (40)
I'm surprised nobody but Cate Blanchett has gotten any love for their work in MRS. AMERICA. That should really be up for best ensemble. Are limited series up for that award. The cast was across the board spectacular: Rose Byrne, Tracey Ullman, Uzo Aduba, Elizabeth Banks, John Slattery, Margo Martindale, Sarah Paulson, Melanie Lynskey... Not a weak link in the huge ensemble.
Rooting for MINARI, Davis, Boseman, Bakalova, and Odom Jr.!
"With McDormand winning at SAG we think this is Carey's to lose." I keep re-reading this sentence but can't figure out for the life of me what it means... am I missing something?
Nick -- oops sorry. it meant to say "recently" as in Three Billboards. fixed.
Jonathan -- that would be quite something!
Dan -- totally agree. I think people were resistant to Mrs America because of its structure. I enjoyed it a lot but it did have a very staccato frustrating feel at times where you would want to follow a story but you kept having to restart and follow something else. It was trying to do A LOT. I almost wish it had just been a series series with multiple seasons there were so many interesting characters.
Ah, got it! Haha thank you Nathaniel :)
If the SAG wants to make it even more chaotic for the Oscars I hope they choose... Vanessa Kirby, Riz Ahmed, Youn Yuh-Jung, Chadwick Boseman (supporting) and anything not Trial of Chicago 7.
These aren't my predictions, but rather my actual ballot. This will be kiss of death for most of these nominees, because I tend to have different taste from the majority of voters and there's almost never more than a 25% match (i.e., three or four categories):
Motion Pictures
Male Actor in a Leading Role: Riz Ahmed
Female Actor in a Leading Role: Carey Mulligan
Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Chadwick Boseman
Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Olivia Colman
Cast: One Night in Miami...
Stunt Ensemble: Da 5 Bloods
Television
Male Actor in a Drama Series: Sterling K. Brown
Female Actor in a Drama Series: Gillian Anderson
Ensemble in a Drama Series: The Crown
Male Actor in a Comedy Series: Jason Sudeikis
Female Actor in a Comedy Series: Linda Cardellini
Ensemble in a Comedy Series: The Great
Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series: Daveed Diggs
Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited: Michaela Coel
Stunt Ensemble: The Boys
Actors: Carey, Riz, Olivia, Daniel, Pic: Trial.
Since when is Boseman the acting giant that needs to win the Oscar ? Anthony Hopkins should have won every award.
Since about 2011, since you asked.
Ensemble: MINARI
My choice: MINARI
Actor: BOSEMAN
My choice: HOPKINS
Actress: MULLIGAN
My choice: KIRBY
Sup. Actor: KALUUYA
My choice: none
Sup. Actress: YOUN
My choice: COLMAN
Finally watched the father and I can’t believe Hopkins has won nothing so far!
Come on spread the wealth
I'd love them to spread the wealth, with Boseman and Close absolute locks at the Oscar (one for a very good performance against an all-timer in Hopkins; and the other, well, just a sad situation) I hope they give it to Hopkins and really anyone but Close. Maybe Bakalova to bolster any potential future nominations towards an actual win.
What Anthony Hopkins accomplishes in The Father is a gigantic achievement. Riz Ahmed delivered such a beautiful and honest performance. Both Hopkins and Ahmed have beautifully realized and heartbreaking last scenes. In my opinion, Boseman didn't understand his character. He didn't understand the passion, the drive. In his performance, that character came off as an arrogant prick. But he's winning and everybody's pretending this is a great performance. Well, it isn't. And I say this with a grain of salt, as Boseman's loss is sad and unfair. But this does not mean that he should be given every award out there. I've said this countless times. The Academy and precursors should realize that there is a way to recognize Boseman's talents and grieve without giving him an Oscar.
Ensemble
Will win: Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: Minari
Actor
Will win: Chadwick Boseman
Should win: Anthony Hopkins
Actress
Will win: Carey Mulligan
Should win: Carey Mulligan
Supporting Actor
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Should Win: Sacha Baron Cohen
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Glenn Close
Should Win: Olivia Colman
Sontag: I prefer Ahmed and Hopkins, too... but I have no doubt that you're reading Levee Green as an arrogant prick because of the success of Boseman's performance.
The movie works because the system curdles anyone who strives.
Glenn is far from favored at the Oscars, let alone a lock. Let's avoid excessive hyperbole here. If she wins, it would be a major upset given the reception to her movie and lack of passion.
My predictions for SAG:
Ensemble
Will Win: Trial
Should Win: Minari
Actor
Will Win: Boseman
Should Win: Ahmed
Actress
Will Win: McDormand
Should Win: Mulligan
Supporting Actor
Will Win: Kaluuya
Should Win: Kaluuya
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Colman
Should Win: Youn
In this climate I feel it's kind of crazy not to predict Minari.
I’m glad somebody is saying Close is a lock at the Oscar, social media and twitterati are so against her (they say it’s just a problem with her film but I’m afraid they also love the “famous loser” narrative) that I am quite confused at the moment
The anti-Boseman remarks are annoying and tiring. How many times are people are going to repeat the same talking points? Boseman is winning the Oscar, get over it and move on.
Oh Gilbert, we all want you to be right, but the fear and mood in the air is HEAVILY leaning towards my beloved Glenn winning a very undeserved Oscar. Mirko makes sense. Currently the buzz and momentum is 95% Mirko's take and 5% Your take (the optimal outcome).
What is annoying, Max, is that an all time great performance from Hopkins (and I'd argue two, including Ahmed) will lose to Boseman because he's black and dead.
Well, for what it's worth, this is what my SAG-AFTRA ballot looked like:
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
Minari (Ensemble)
Da 5 Bloods (Stunt)
Ethan Hawke (The Good Lord Bird)
Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Laura Linney (Ozark)
Daniel Levy (Schitt's Creek)
Linda Cardellini (Dead to Me)
Ozark (Drama Ensemble)
Dead to Me (Comedy Ensemble)
Cobra Kai (Stunt)
Granted, I didn't see a lot of the nominated shows from last year...
Mirko -- i hardly said she was a lock though. I think Glenn COULD win the Oscar. But i dont think she's locked up. If she wins SAG though I'm sure she's winning the Oscar because that will mean they didn't care they just gave her it for THE WIFE and the industry is like "give it up for Glenn already!"
Gena -- but there's no reason to bring race into it. We know that tragic losses like Boseman or Ledger before him result in locked up wins. That is what it is. And Max is right that everyone needs to move on. The Best Actor race is sewn up (as is Supporting Actor). It's the female races that are suspenseful this year.
@ True Glenn Fan: of course for me an Oscar for Glenn couldn’t possibly be undeserved (just in case you’re wondering, yes I watched HE), but surely many netizens have a very different opinion about it
@David D: Then you have horrible taste. Boseman over Hopkins and Ahmed? Mulligan over Kirby and McDormand?
LOL
If this were the 1980s, I would feel much more confident about predicting Glenn Close to win the Oscar for 'Hilbilly Elegy.' The combination of accumulated nominations and being a respected veteran in her seventies would likely have sealed the deal back then, when AMPAS was more sentimental.
While those factors still come into play today, I think you usually need to have more going for you to win now. The fact that Close's performance and film are so divisive has me thinking that Yuh-Jung Youn will ultimately walk away with the Oscar, even if she loses SAG tonight.
Rooting for Minari, Riz Ahmed or Anthony Hopkins, Frances McDormand, and Youn Yuh-Jung.
Predicting Minari, Boseman, Mulligan, Kaluuya, and *fingers crossed* Yuh-Jung to win the film prizes.
Boseman is simply the best of a very, very strong lineup. I'd argue he'd still win if he were alive; same with Ledger.
if the leaked winners are correct...
Picture: there's another shift on who has a shot to upset Nomadland
Actor: no change
Actress: the boat capsizes
Supporting Actor: no change
Supporting Actress: confirmation of who's the frontrunner
Boseman is good but this is a theatrical acting, not cinematic one, good for Tony, not an Oscar, and he's extremely weak when you compare him with Hopkins, Ahmed and Oldman.
So this is a disgrace that he'll win over far better performances.
At least Hopkins and Oldman have Oscars already but this is really awful for Ahmed.
The Oscars are a televised show, it's entertainment. Frances McDormand in the press room after her win even called them a commercial. That's why Boseman, who was in a huge blockbuster and was beloved star, is winning.
That's hard to accept for some of us because we like to think about the Oscars as recognition of merit, which they also are. They're just not exclusively that.
My picks this year will not mirror Oscars the only category i'm hopeful I may agree on is Frances for Best Actress and that may become less likely if Carey wins tonight.
Still haven't seen Hopkins so Ahmed gets my vote,It was not Boseman's acting I didn't like it was the character as written,so off putting.
I just can't deal with that supporting actress lineup Yuh-Jung is a perfectly fine nice granny in Minari but an Oscar,I think Bakalova,Close and Zengel are ok but not awards worthy,i'm not including Colman who I have yet to see.
Kaluuya wins supporting but i'm hopeful for a Raci surprise,they have to reward it somewhere major.
Yuh-jung’s win shouldn’t be a shock.
Stevie Wonder could have seen it coming.
Thankfully, it’s a lovely performance and she is radiant on screen. :)
I wish now I had placed my bets, haha.
But Mirko surely her next nomination would clear the very low Hillbilly Elegy bar, plus being the most unrewarded by herself at nine nominations until the win is just too good a piece of future trivia to pass up.
I'm on record as not being like Three Artful and somewhat you, I'll take my favourite actress never winning so long as the best individual achievement of the year beats her. But I do get the pull of desire and wanting her to win no matter what over the honorable and dignifued route.
Maybe on the very slim chance she loses I'll fall into your camp, but I hope for my self respect that I don't.
Move on from a Best Actor race that hasn't even been decided? Most of you haven't moved on from the Best Actress races of the 1980s!
I'm glad somebody was able to take a major award before Close's Oscar. I hope Bakalova takes Bafta so she gets a major award too.
Hopkins in The Father is like Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine. You can like somebody else more, but it IS the best acting performance of the year. And that's why Hopkins should win too.
@True Glenn Fan: sorry to look like a person without self respect in your eyes, just for saying that Close won’t be, after her spectacular film journey, an undeserving Oscar winner, considering many netizens are writing also way worse things about her.