Oscar Charts: Will "Best Actor" be Peter Dinklage vs Will Smith?
Thursday, July 29, 2021 at 1:00PM by Nathaniel R
Peter Dinklage in the 2019 stage production of Cyrano. Photo from Jeenah Moon for the New York Times
Jose Ferrer won the Oscar playing Cyrano de Bergerac (1950) and forty years later French movie star Gérard Depardieu was nominated for the same role. Thirty-one years later will Peter Dinklage prove lucky number three while having a go at the classic big-nosed role? About that big-nose, though. In the pre-COVID stage run, the production got people talking partially because it made significat alterations to the material, the most visible of which was the lack of that infamous nose. The thinking was that we all have things that make us insecure so the world-famous nose might be a stand-in for anything.
The other major alteration was that it was a musical with songs by The National. What will Joe Wright make of all this for the big screen?
Wright's directorial skills have been infamously ignored by his own Academy branch even when the Oscars at large have loved his films (Atonement, Pride & Prejudice, Anna Karenina, Darkest Hour) so he's in kind of in a Chris Nolan pre-Dunkirk place with Oscar. But that's a different topic and we're here to talk Best Actor! You can see the new BEST ACTOR chart here and here's the index of all predictions thus far.
Now about Will Smith...
I've noticed some online sniping about his performance based on this brand new King Richard trailer but I would caution that a) trailers are hardly full performances and b) Smith is an easy target as one of the most famous people in the world. Familiarity sometimes breeds contempt. It's true that Smith hasn't been even close to the Oscar competition since The Pursuit of Happyness (2006) but he also hasn't made any well respected non-genre movies since then, Concussion being the closest and that was very far from close. If the movie is strong (and "if" is something we can't know yet) I see no reason to believe that he wouldn't be in the running since he is
...a very famous movie star who hasn't yet won an Oscar ✅
... who is playing a real person ✅
... backed by a major studio who is well practiced at Oscar campaigns ✅
... in a film about a topic that people love (in this case Black Excellence) ✅
... and the movie will be high profile ✅
That's a lot of marks for his performance so it's really only a matter of how well received the movie is and what his competition is like. He looks great on paper (at least) for his third nomination.
Previously discussed
Supporting Actor
Picture / Director / Screenplay
Costumes & Cinematography
All the other Craft Races
Animated Feature
Best Actor, Cyrano, King Richard, Oscars (21), Peter Dinklage, Punditry, Will Smith
Reader Comments (34)
Missing checkmark? "Will Smith is finally NOT 'Trying Too Hard' in a Prestige Context." That was kind of the main problem with all of his post Pursuit of Happyness bids. Yes, he couldn't just be The Fresh Prince forever, but he's not Daniel Kaluuya or Sidney Poitier either, and trying to be wasn't helping ANYONE.
Denzel Washington will Hilary Swank him.
Will Smith strikes me as a bit of a Cary Grant - amazing charisma, someone you love to see on screen, but not so interested in making academy fare. However, when they do, they're rewarded.
While I'm excited about King Richard, I do hope the film is willing to dive in the less savory parts of his character (e.g., multiple children from multiple relationships and marriage - some hidden, etc.). I think there's an opportunity to paint him as complicated, but the recent trailer doesn't really get at that. I think there's a real question about why focus on him vs. Serena and Venus.
I love Clifton Collins Jr., and thought he was underdiscussed for Capote, but his film sounds a bit like a redux of the Wrestler. Sony and critics are going to really have to push him.
I think Ben Platt is at least one of the top 15 contenders. His film will give him a lot to do, he's likeable, and even if his film doesn't thrill, much like Hillbilly Elegy, he'll get a lot to work with.
I still don't understand what's behind the Will Smith buzz. Don't get me wrong; it'd be crazy not to predict him as a nominee. But people have been framing him as a front-runner sight unseen and I don't get it. Yes, he's been nominated multiple times. But his star is not what it was even a decade ago, and I think he's more like a Tom Cruise or an Eddie Murphy in the eyes of AMPAS than a Robin Williams at this point (i.e. box office juggernauts they're no longer compelled to give an Oscar to).
Denzel wins a 3rd unless Smith is better in the film than the trailer suggests.
LOL @ Will Smith being in contention.
Aren’t we all secretly anticipating the highlight of award season drama — Jada’s hot, hot, hot Red Table Talk addressing Will’s Oscar snub?
I don't think Richard Williams is well-known enough for Smith and the film to gain significant traction in the forthcoming award season.
@Jeremy
The world knows the Williams Sisters and their father. He's not some hidden figure.
Yikes!
Here's hoping THR Roundtables take place at the Red Table this year
Wait a minute.... they're doing a film about Richard Williams who is the father of Venus and Serena Williams? What about his adopted white son Aaron who was a hot tennis star until his attempted comeback at the 2001 Wimbledon where he went up against up-and-comer Charles Poole? The sisters admitted they had a younger white adopted brother with a mullet.
King Richard Trailer:
"The most dangerous thing on this earth is a woman who know how to think"
*giggles* "Yes, Daddy"
I couldn't possibly cringe more than I just did.
Why am I unsure about Dinklage ... he was the pulsing heart of GOT and absolutely fun & brilliant ... but every other movie I've seen him in so far well if I say it mildly he was actually a disappointment - but then again Joe Wright made some real movie magic for the ages (Atonement) and some real crazy but bold style-mix-reference-shit (Woman in the Window) which I thoroughly enjoyed if you don't take it to seriously. My guess he'll be 4th place - not a front runner.
King Richard trailer gives me a bit of The Blind Side vibes - and we all know where that ended up (even though we don't understand it). I love Will and his beautiful, infective energy - I think he's a solid actor - I won't mind him taking the Golden Boy home for something special, but I'm not so sure if they fall for this kind of movie again... I hope we (and the new members) are a bit beyond it now with Coleman winning for Favourite or last years well deserved handouts... 5th place unless they want to honour him?
Orwell -- also the cringiest moment for me!
@martin, these are the same people who gave BP to Greenbook and Rami Malek Best Actor. They also honored Joacquin as the Joker, and gave Gary Oldman a win for the Darkest Hour. While the academy has shifted some, they still are susceptible to certain films/performance styles.
There are 2 different films called Swan Song. Not confusing at all. (The Udo Kier one does look fun from the trailer)
I love tennis and I adore the Williams Sisters but I just cannot get hyped about King Richard. I know it's just a trailer and I'll try to give it a chance, but the dialogue was cringe-worthy and it just seems like manufactured Oscar bait.
@Joe. Yes, of course there's still a conservative, stodgy faction of the Academy but it's undeniable that in the past couple years that the recruiting efforts to diversify and internationalize the Academy has really produced some exciting results. It's unfathomable to me that even five years ago a film like Promising Young Woman would be a major Oscar player and something like The Trial of the Chicago 7 (a film made in an Oscar lab) would go home empty handed. And an art house film starring a 60-something year old woman directed by a Chinese-American woman would walk away with the most Oscar wins of the night.
I do think that films like King Richard are becoming less of a sure thing with Oscar nowadays - we also don't really have the standard method of judging a film by its box office power anymore either (which in effect, measures its audience reach), with the simultaneous theatre/streaming opening. I'm sure King Richard would've been a huge box office hit like The Blind Side in the late 00's (and who knows, maybe it still will this year). You know box office certainly boosted the awards prospects of films ilke Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book.
Daddy's so cool. :-\
I find it hard to believe that Will Smith is gonna win or even get a nomination. This year the field is stack with hot contenders left and right. Also Smith is trying way too hard to be consider a "serious dramatic actor". That is not charming at all.
Tom Cruise is a better actor. And if Cruise ever bites on a chilling and challenging dramatic role again, Cruise is gonna be a heavy contender unlike Smith. Cruise is very likable and humble. People in the industry has enormous respect for him.
When it comes to Dinklage, is it hard to pass by the Tyrion character. He sounds the same in every movie.
I guess Smith can Sandra Bullock it if it’s a huge hit.
Each time Will Smith has been nominated, he’s lost to another African-American. Could this be Denzel’s third, he bested Will in 2002.
I don't see Brenden Fraser anywhere on the charts. Was "The Whale" pushed to next year?
MJ -- yes, it was.
As someone who grew up watching a bit of Fresh Prince (reruns and the last couple seasons live). Could see the exceptional talent, charisma. I always thought he'd be a great fit to play Ali, and he ended up playing Ali. Got a nomination for a worthy performance, tho in that field shouldn't have.
And since then, all the box office he's made, he chased. I find him disingenuous. Jada's show is icky. It's all proper bullshit. I'm also bored with his lack of willingness to do anything complicated.
That all said, what are people complaining about? That they may not show their white brother, or how shitty the man was in other ways? What does that have to do with this movie? It's like the people who complained about A Beautiful Mind not dealing with Nash's possible prejudices, or possible homosexuality...or that he and his Wife separated at one point...
Dislike the movie if you want, but none of that has anything to do with the film onscreen. Whiny ass people. Complain about the movie if the movie merits complaints.
Also, Damon is looking pretty good right now. Surprised he's currently so low. I'll wait and see the film, but I'm thinking he's getting in.
It feels like Denzel's year. He had to come very close with Fences. It's interesting to note that the Academy awarded third Oscars for Streep and Day-Lewis in consecutive years, and it could do the same for McDormand and Washington.
I thought Smith would be a major player, but I agree that lionizing Richard Williams (if indeed the movie does so) will be an issue. I doubt A Beautiful Mind would do as well today as it did 20 years ago. Claims of historical inaccuracy helped sink Selma and Lincoln (at least in part), and those seemed a lot more minor than than what may be at play here.
(Sight unseen) I would like Denzel to win for a few reason, but one of the biggest would be that his co-star in that movie, Frances McDormand, would be presenting it to him (barrring any tradition-changes).
that King Richard trailer is one long unbroken cringe from start to finish. and i'm dreading macbeth and watching denzel play every scene exactly how you think he'll play it, which is just what fences was. plus we just had a fantastic macbeth with fassbender and cotillard. i'm gonna pull for matt damon to sustain for eight more months!
given that there's some buzz from the trailer for "Official Competition", and they look great in it, I'd keep an eye on Cruz and Banderas for Oscar consideration. The only problem I see, beforehand, is the usual, performances in Spanish. But Cruz looks more showy than in Madres Paralelas, and given the subject matter, the film may be well aprecciated by the AMPAS if reviews and precursors put it in the Oscar radar.
oh, and yes... Oscar seems to be, beforehand, between Smith and Dinklage.
I'd say that Cage will be nominated as well, for Pig. It seems an easier to swallow film than Mandy, for which he should have been already nominated. At this point - I know, so early! - it really looks like...
Smith vs. Dinklage
Cage
(and 2 more... and one of them, probably Driver!)
... I forgot. Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Looks like a strong contender, beforehand. So yeah, it looks like a solid quintet if you think of the diversity of the roles and films. Cage looks like the only one that his film doesn't really feel "Best Picture" contender.
Cage
Dinklage
Driver
Fraser
Smith
Jules;
Nothing can be received in the current climate.
That said, love it or otherwise, A Beautiful Mind isn't about John Nash so much as it's about his struggle. And by the very end of the film it's about love. Mental health is a hot topic right now, tho most of it not about mental illness. I don't see how that would be an issue.
Not that I'm defending, blaming, or even knowing what exactly happened in John Nash's life. I know very little about him, and I was a teenager when the film came out so I don't think I had even heard of him then. But if mentally ill, one would imagine lots of little things can happen. Did bigger things happen? Again, I don't know. But you see the point.
Jesus Alonso, The Whale will be release till 2022. Confirmed by A24.