Oscar Chart Updates: Picture, Director, Screenplay, and more...
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 12:35AM 
Jane Campion's new film Power of the Dog has been named the Centerpiece for the New York Film Festival. Perhaps it's wishful thinking (we've loved Campion forever) but we're betting big on it for the Oscar race. The film is set in 1920s rural Montana and stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Jesse Plemons as brothers who are at odds. The rift between them grows wider once the younger brother brings a new wife (Kirsten Dunst) home. The novel by Thomas Savage has been compared to works like East of Eden and Brokeback Mountain and if the film can live up to either of those classics' screen adaptations it will be something special.
We've been working hard on the first Oscar charts of the year. The four acting categories and international film have yet to be posted, but the rest of the charts are now up...
- PICTURE - Will streamers like Netflix or Amazon prevail or will more traditional distributors like MGM/UA, Searchlight, Focus, A24, and SPC rise up? So many films sound exciting but we won't know which deliver on their promise until later in the year.
- DIRECTOR - Jane Campion could become the first woman ever nominated twice in Best Director
- SCREENPLAYS - Numerous brilliant writers have new films coming but however will they choose between Asghar Farhadi, Joel Coen, Tony Kushner, Pedro Almodóvar, Mike Mills, and Paul Thomas Anderson?
- VISUAL CATEGORIES - There's (presumably) eye candy aplenty in Dune, Last Night in Soho, House of Gucci, and Nightmare Alley
- SOUND CATEGORIES - Can it finally be Nicholas Britell's year or will he split his support with three movies (Carmen, Don't Look Up, Cruella)?
- ANIMATED FEATURE - Will Disney's musical Encanto be the frontrunner? Will Flee and Belle be the more adventurous citations?
- PREDICTION INDEX - the overview snapshot
Reader Comments (35)
I'm betting big on The Power of the Dog too. It looks gorgeous and the pedigree is strong.
My no guts, no glory is The Harder They Fall to be the big surprise this year. The trailer dropped not too long ago and it looks fun, fresh and very current. It also has a terrific cast who looks like they're having a ball (Idris Elba, Regina King, LaKeith Stanfield, Jonathan Majors).
I'm predicting House of Gucci and Beyond the Ricardos to underwhelm. Other than The Martian, the Academy has been a bit cold to Ridley Scott recently (they even snubbed him for director in The Martian). I also am unsure how Gaga will fare in a leading role that does not revolve around singing/performing.
Dune seems to be the most anticipated movie of the year. I think it either get the most nominations or it the most Razzie nominations.
My own Oscar year just ended. It lasts from each end of July and I celebrate movies that I watch for the first time. My nominees are:
Picture
In a Lonely Place
In the Heights
Love Affair
Mudbound
True Grit
Director
David Fincher- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Nicholas Ray- In a Lonely Place
Jon M. Chu- In the Heights
Dee Rees- Mudbound
Joel and Ethan Coen- True Grit
Actor
Riz Ahmed- Sound of Metal
Gunnar Bjornstrand- Winter Light
Humphrey Bogart- In a Lonely Place
Jeff Daniels- The Squid and the Whale
Erland Josephson- Scenes from a Marriage
Actress
Gloria Grahame- In a Lonely Place
Frances McDormand- Nomadland
Carey Mulligan- Mudbound
Rosalind Russell- Auntie Mame
Liv Ullmann- Scenes from a Marriage
Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh- My Weekend with Marilyn
Carey Hawkins- In the Heights
Rob Morgan- Mudbound
Paul Raci- Sound of Metal
Corey Stoll- Midnight in Paris
Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates- Midnight in Paris
Olivia Cook- Sound of Metal
Marion Cotillard- Midnight in Paris
Olga Merediz- In the Heights
Ingrid Thulin- Winter Light
Just a heads up Nat, CODA is actually an adapted screenplay, being an english remake of a french film.
Looks like a good batch of predictions, and I think you're spot on about The Power of the Dog, Farhadi getting in.
I do wonder if you're slightly underestimating CODA (seemed like the most emotionally impactful Sundance film this year, with an important subject matter), The French Dispatch (I think Budapest getting in wasn't a one-off so much as evidence of a long-developing industry respect for Wes Anderson's work - it's a writer-driven, craft-heavy, huge-cast film with good-to-great reviews), Tick, Tick... Boom!, or even The Green Knight which is atypical but getting the kind of critical raves that guarantee a film is in 'best movies of the year' conversation by December.
I also have a hunch that Last Night in Soho will be something special, and that even if it doesn't break into Picture it will get into Original Screenplay in much the same way something like Knives Out or Ex Machina could.
I want Nicholas Britell to finally get recognition, but i'm praying for this year to be Jonny Greenwood's. If Power of the dog is indeed a strong contender (and asuming his work is great, but come on...) he might get his due and a way to compensate his loss for Phantom thread (as much as i'm a Desplat fan, Budapest should have been his second Oscar, clearing the path for Jonny's first Oscar)
I'm also very intrigued for his work in Spencer,so maybe he could get 2 nods this year
for now i'm settling with Britell winning another Emmy for The Underground railroad
and also is there a reason to think Alberto Iglesias is not scoring Almodovar's new? he's always been there, even in The Human voice
Aaron -- i might be underestimating that one (THE HARDER THEY FALL) because it just looked so sadistically gleeful about its violence. so the trailer turned me off. like Tarantino's worst impulses at feature length. But perhaps it's just an overzealous trailer and there's more to it that just "it's cool to shoot people and free criminals" (my understanding is that Idris Elba is the villain but perhaps i misunderstood the loglines i read.
Eduardo -- I think Iglesias probably is but he's still not listed on IMDb which i found odd.
Duncan -- i also feel that about Last Night in Soho and *almost* put it in a lot more categories. Hopefully our hunch is correct.
What I wouldn’t give to have Jane Campion back! She deserves it - heck, I’d have her with at least two nominations by now.
There tends to always be a foreign director in the mix now so I suspect your hunch is right on Farhadi!
Excited to see your acting predix! Don’t keep us waiting too long - reckon Maggie Smith will ever nab that elusive 7th nomination?
Surprised to not see anything for The Last Duel. I was unsure but the trailer impressed me. I could see Ridley having more success with that than House of Gucci. Jodie Comer looks strong in the trailer, I'd watch out for her.
The Power of the Dog is a tough, very 'male' novel that nevertheless finds interesting ways to scratch underneath the surface of the Western. I'm not a particular fan of Cumberbatch, but can absolutely see Dunst and Plemons in the other roles. But mostly I'm here for a Campion comeback narrative!
I hope that The Worst Person In The World will also do well.
Mass also looks super good.
*prays to see Kiki’s Oscar moment finally happen … whether it’s just a nom or a win*
Agreed with Keegan.
My hunch is that if it's Ridley's year, it'll be for The Last Duel (with House of Gucci adding to the fire).
And Jodie Comer looks like she could be a Best Actress contender/winner, based on that trailer.
I always appreciate it when filmmakers cast family members well, and...Cumberbatch and Plemons as brothers makes no sense.
August is coming and we don't have locks in the main categories. 🤔 [In fact, we don't even know who or what will be running, just speculations] What does It mean? A weak year or a more competitive one?
GO KIKI! I Just know I’ll be rooting for her all year.
Two things:
1) >Power of the Dog< is the best movie title since Hillbilly Elegy.
2) Reading/hearing Kirsten Dunst name related to a possible Oscar contender is curious, just curious. But as I commented days ago, about Oscar buzz for Simon Rex, after Lady Gaga...
Both Power of the Dog and Passing thrill my old English-major soul. Glad both novels have finally made their way to the screen. I nearly passed out when I first read that Campion was doing it. The material is a great fit and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that she's back in the Oscar spotlight. (I also have Campion to thank for the extra-credit question on a final exam that bumped me up a grade: it was about "Silence," the Thomas Hood poem at the end of The Piano, and I immediately recognized it!)
What are your thoughts about tick, tick...BOOM!? A lot of people are predicting it in a big way, but you don't even mention it in your list of "other Netflix possibilities".
Why has the Internet already chosen House of Gucci over The Last Duel? Is there word on either? Seems to me that there's more to like with The Last Duel. Jodie Comer is fit to have a big year at the movies, getting to be playful in a big action comedy with Free Guy, and then immediately follow that up with what now seems to be the lead role in a BIG DRAMA. Plus, the idea of getting Damon, Affleck, and Holofcener their second writing nods is a fun narrative. The Last Duel looks EPIC and oddly timely and if handled with grace could be a huge deal this year. Either way, I hope Ridley gets that 4th Director nod.
Nicolas -- it honestly slipped my mind but i remain skeptical that the academy is going to embrace the musicals this year in the shadow of WSS which is the only one that's both prestige-ready and getting the traditional theatrical MOVIE-MOVIE release.
Don't bet against Brolin, Isaac, and/or Skarsgård in Dune.
Despite the Academy’s apparent on-again-off-again relationship with Ridley Scott, I have this weird feeling that he could even pull a Steven Soderbergh and get two Best Director nominations this year assuming both films are well received. It’s already almost August and nothing has emerged as a slam dunk nominee yet, so it’s totally possible.
I think Dune might end up being somewhat divisive, although I do think nominations throughout the tech categories seem all but guaranteed either way.
Devin -- i *am* betting against them (though i cant wait to see what they do) since if there's one genre that Oscar voters just cant see the worth in (when it comes to acting) it's definitely sci-fi films. People say that they dont like horror or comedy but those nominations crop up from time to time. Sci-fi almost never.
Edwin: I'm still stunned he directed House of Gucci and didn't just produce it and give the directorial reins to someone else. I mean, if you start your directorial career with The Duellists and title a movie when you're old The Last Duel and you DON'T retire from directing after shooting a movie with that title...? What are you doing!?
I'm here for the Kirsten Dunst nom to finally happen and a narrative building child star turned leading lady lost in the wilderness for a few years now back in a prestige movie with a prestige well loved director,my only hesitation is Cumberbatch.
Nathaniel,
Academy has come around to scifi somewhat in the last decade.
Avatar
District 9
Gravity
The Martian
Fury Road
Arrival
That being said, these might be the exceptions that prove the rule. If Dune gets rave reviews, expect it to be a big player if not competitive in Picture.
Just watched the King Richard trailer and Will Smith really really wants that oscar.
So happy the charts are back!
I'm pretty skeptical of King Richard as an Oscar threat. While in Will Smith's "biggest star in the world" era (1996-2008) the occasional "serious" turn (Ali, Pursuit of Happyness) made Oscar stand up and take note, he seems like an afterthought the last decade. After Earth, Collateral Beauty, Seven Pounds, Concussion... oof.
Surprised Soderbergh doesn't get at least a mention with Kimi likely coming this year and being very "of the moment". Perhaps a long-shot but he's overdue for another lovefest from Oscar (especially given the role he stepped up to play with the ceremony this year).
Tony Ruggio -- ah but notice how few of those scored acting nominations -- even from beloved Oscar-loved actors (hi, Amy Adams / Charlize Theron)
Denis Villeneuve's last sci-fi outing - Blade Runner 2049 - received a slew of technical nods (and wins) AND was well-received by critics, but could not crack best picture/director or score any acting noms. I could totally see the same thing happening for Dune.
The Power of the Dog is a fantastic book, Campion a fantastic director, Cumberbatch, Dunst, Plemons and Smit-McPhee all have fantastic roles...
But at the end of the day the most exciting thing is Kirsten Dunst—the best actress of her generation—finally getting her due even though she should have as many nominations as Amy Adams at the very least by now. Rose is one of the most fascinating characters in any novel, but is iconic in for the Western genre. Dunst can do no wrong. She has the role, she'll bring the performance, get the Oscar ready I say!
Thomas Savage (the author) deserves to be in the pantheon the way John Steinbeck and Annie Proulx are. Always excited to see films like There Will Be Blood back in Oscar contention. Never thought the most exciting thing about the next one would be a female character-actor in a Western—but here we are. Western novels have a habit of getting those wrong, but Savage didn't.
I love Jane Campion but I can’t watch Benedict Cumberbatch so I’m confused re how to approach this one…
Bill -- how large is the role of Rose in the book?
I am not sure that I can agree with the argument that Oscar voters will dismiss The Many Saints of Newark as TV fare. Oscar history shows that winners and nominees have television roots. These include Marty, The Days of Wine and Roses, Charley, Star Trek, South Park and The Fugitive. Most recently we have seen Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan and its 2020 sequel based on Da Ali G Show.