Oscar Charts: Best Actor & Best Actress
Saturday, January 1, 2022 at 9:00AM by Nathaniel R
Stewart and Cumberbatch have hogged the lion's share of critics awards. Will gold statues follow?
Both lead acting charts have been updated so take a look at BEST ACTOR and BEST ACTRESS. Both categories are giving off the vibes of being set in stone already before SAG has even announced their nominations so we'll soon see if that's an illusion or the truth. I've made one big adjustment in Best Actor, having Leonardo DiCaprio in Don't Look Up vault over rising but minor critical darling Nicolas Cage in Pig and knocking out Peter Dinklage in Cyrano. Cage maybe could have happened had critics really rallied but they were too busy praising Benedict Cumberbatch to really take a Pig stand. As for Dinklage, though the role is an awards magnet, MGM/UA just didn't seem to know what to do with that film even though it's a) easy to market b) well liked by most people who see it... and kept pushing back its release. Better to have just saved it for 2022 at this point we think. And for Best Actress, there are no major changes, just a bit of order shuffling. I'm sticking with the five women who keep getting cited everywhere. Yes, there is a lot of PERFORMANCE and PASSION happening in the second tier of Best Actress hopefuls but it's getting harder and harder to see a path for any of them, even previous Oscar darlings like Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and buzzy newcomers like Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). Unless SAG honors one of them, it's this five until Oscar night.
Revised Oscar Charts
Best Actor, Best Actress, Oscars (21), Punditry
Reader Comments (39)
Still don't get why Spencer is only getting sole nominations for Stewart and nothing else. This is not Judy or Tammy Faye. For me Stewart and Larraín work as a pack. Add the cinematographer, the score and the costumes to that pack. Buy the whole thing or leave it.
I agree that Actor is a fixed 5 with Leo as spoiler, but for Actress, I think Zegler and Haim are battling with Gaga for that 5th spot, and all have different reasons against thar could maybe, hopefully allow Cruz to squeak through.
Also interesting that Colman appeara to be entering a default nominee phase of her career. Can't complain when the work is interesting.
I agree that Leo makes a lot of sense for that fifth spot. I might start feeling more confident in Cage’s chances if he can make it into the SAG lineup, but until then Leo is my pick. Oddly, however, I won’t be predicting Dinklage even if he’s the fifth guy in the SAG lineup; I’m just not feeling it for him, and sometimes you have to just go with your gut even if it looks another way on paper. (I correctly predicted Emma Thompson’s snub for Saving Mr. Banks a few years back, so sometimes the hunch picks do pay off.)
I really don’t know what to make of Best Actress because I’m having the same gut feeling about Lady Gaga not making it in that I have for Dinklage, but I also don’t have confidence in either Zegler or Haim. I’d love to say Penelope Cruz, but…I really don’t know.
Why do people think Cruz is such a strong candidate for a nom? I'm honestly curious. The film is not comparable to Pain and Glory or Volver; I think it will be shut out. Zegler feels much stronger to me.
@jules
Because this is Cruz's best performance ever?
Were Smith, Dinklage and Gaga to drop out of their respective top fives, I wouldn’t shed any tears, but I can’t argue with the fact we’re stuck with Smith.
DiCaprio in 5 feels right, but it also feels like a shame that someone like Collins or Rex can't quite squeak through there. Either one of those would be such a more interesting story and promotion of an interesting film than simply Leo getting his 7th nomination.
cal roth - If quality had anything to do with the Oscars, Renate Reinsve would be a shoo-in. Academy voters are being bombarded with screeners; I'm not sure they'll even get to watching Parallel Mothers.
Jules - Cruz is an Oscar winner in a an acclaimed performance directed by another Oscar winner and one of the most Academy-friendly international auteurs. Almodóvar directed an Oscar-nominated performance two years ago. Of course voters are going to watch the screener.
Jules: I would say that it come more from the instability of the 5th slot. Gaga's performance is polarizing, Haim is an unknown, and Zegler is an unknown in an often unappreciated role... It will likely be one of those 3, but it feels open for a longshot, and she's the most realistic one.
Once again the critics have failed us by shoveling all the awards at one performer, when Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver, Simon Rex, Oscar Isaac, Joaquin Phoenix, and Woody Norman were all right there, and arguably even more impressive than Cumberbatch.
I think Dinklage gets in because the Academy loves to push a nomination to top tier TV stars (Cranston and Janney are examples leaping to mind). They'll want him in the club. On top of that, he's worked with a ton of actors over the years, which may also be a strong point for Collins Jr. Leo and Denzel seem likely to fall under "we've noticed them recently," but they're certainly the easy choices.
The predictions for best actress is disheartening except for Colman. I wouldn't watch House of Gucci, Spencer, Being the Ricardos or The Eyes of Tammy Faye even under torture.
@PP - I agree. Outside of Colman, Best Actress is a sad state of affairs this year. Reinsve and Cruz, arguably two of the better performances this year, being outsiders for even a nomination while Stewart being the probable winner for the maudlin and dreadful Spencer is just so disheartening. Here's hoping 2022 brings us better Actress performances!
Cruz's snub, if it happens, is going to go down as maybe the worst snub of the year.
LAFCA put her back into the spotlight, but her absence from the Globes make that only BAFTA and SAG can save her chances...
I think one of the newer faces Thompson in a huge surprise if Negga gets in as she should then Zegler and Haim at the expense of GaGa or Chastain.
I think Cage gets the 5th spot,lots of passion and when you see the film you get why,he is my biggest shock cos I as most others thought he'd given up on appearing in quality pictures.
PP I don't understand if you don't see the movies how can compile a list,Colman has entered the Judi Dench phase of her career,everyone loves her and she is flat out different in every movie.
if leo gets the fifth best actor slot, which costar is he piggybacking into the supporting actor line up?
Jonah Hill?
Looking like another year with stellar, interesting work that's barely recognized by the Academy.
@MrRipley79: Penelope Cruz in an Almodovar movie. 😍
THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Tessa Thompson in a fine adult drama 😲
Lady Gaga in something called House of Gucci 🤭
This is the best answer I can give. You can racognize s**t by the smell, you don't have to necessarily check the toilet
Andrew Garfield.... a lock? I hope not... But regardless the other nominees, Best Actor category is a fight to the finishline between Smith and Cumberbatch anyway...
Let’s have Barb and Star with two Best Actress nominations !
Never mind. DiCaprio won't happen.
Disappointed that Kidman can't save us from Kristen Stewart's embarrassment.
Cumberbatch will do his part and save us from Will Smith.
@PP Well if that's your reasoning "I can't help you with that."
Cruz to replace Kidman (hated her performance) and Thompson to replace Gaga (hated her performance too).
PP;
Don't comment on movies if you don't know anything about them. Not just the ones you're laughing at.
I don't think Gaga gets in. Don't think DiCaprio gets in. Great analysis, I know.
I am disheartened that Ramos, much like Egerton, is not in the mix, when clearly he had one of the better performances in their year.
Colman still in???LOL...TLD hot mess movie...
I'm keeping the same five women for SAG but still expect one or even two (keeping an eye on Gaga and Chastain, neither of whom I expect to make it at BAFTA before being dropped altogether at Oscars) to drop by the time Oscar nods come along.
Voting is a month away, and I still think Cruz is a passion pick, while Haim/Zegler are up and coming stars with big films voters will be watching. There's the fun stat (yes, yes, they're made to be broken ik!) of an acting lineup never not having at least a nominee from a BP in the expanded era.
I also think Dinklage is adored by his peers which is going to keep him afloat as an option all season long. DiCaprio makes perfect sense to me now...for SAG, but expecting DLU's air to deflate a bit by the time Oscar comes along. It'd be interesting if Washington is the one who misses as SAG given how quiet the buzz around Macbeth is as well.
Mike in Canada - Thanks, that makes sense. I still would bet on Zegler or Haim first, though, as I think being in a BP nominee can have a huge impact on one's chances (everyone sees your movie, and if a voter really loves it, they're inclined to vote for it repeatedly).
Despite the Globes sub I feel Rex could make it in. I don't have confidence he will ride this into a career of great choices, but he does nail this character. His character is a dreadful human, but people are confused and say "Oh but he's charming and likeable", so maybe he can ride it out. But he is great in this. A lot of nuance, intended or not.
From what I've seen, the likelihood of nomination is this:
1. Stewart
2. Colman
3. Gaga
4. Chastain
5. Kidman
Gaga is a lock. Chastain and Kidman especially are very much in danger of being left out for Haim and/or Cruz.
Gaga is 100% not a lock and she isn't as solid as Kidman. Kidman is approaching a lock to me, unless there's one of those phony revolts and everyone gets taken down.
Stewart and Kidman are locks in Best Actress. Cumberbatch and Smith in Best Actor. That's all by now. The other three are fighting for a place in their categories.
If Leo’s getting in, we should probably prepare for Jonah Hill or Mark Rylance to show up too in Supporting Actor. I’m guessing Jonah.
Collins Jr doesn’t have a narrative anyone actually knows about and is a vote siphoner more than anything. Swap him with Oscar Isaac, who actually has a win somewhere and made it into LFCC and Dublin. He might make the BAFTA longlist unlike CCJ. He won’t make it in for the Oscars in the end either, but he’s more realistic than CCJ.
Forgot to mention! If by your measure The Card Counter was a small, unloved movie, what does that make Jockey? https://twitter.com/ercboxoffice/status/1477666832345538561
“Kidman is a lock” is probably the funniest phrase I will hear all year. She is missing regionals left and right and has yet to win anything. Her performance is far more polarizing than Gaga or Chastain. She is number 5 right now and she is vulnerable. No one cares about her film and it’s not getting in screenplay or picture. The only thing she has going for her is the name of the woman she plays. That is the only reason she is being nominated anywhere. That, and we don’t need to nominate Haim for playing herself.