Oscar Volley: Who will take the fifth slot in Best Actress?
Saturday, December 17, 2022 at 11:24AM Team Experience will be discussing each Oscar category as we head into the precursors. Here's Nick Taylor and Eurocheese...
NICK: We’ve arrived at the most crowded acting category of year, which doesn’t necessarily mean this category will be difficult to predict. If you look at the fifteen women in Nathaniel’s Best Actress predictions -- I think Lesley Manville should be higher for Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris -- you can see that the fifth slot is going to be a bloodbath. It makes it even harder to narrow things down when so many of the turns are fantastic. The sheer amount of chaos offered from the this category in the past couple years makes it hard for me to feel comfortable with setting anything in stone even as we reach the end of the year.
I wanna honor the messiness of the category, from year to year, and spice up how we order this volley. Euro, of all the leading actresses from 2022 with minimal-to-no Oscar buzz, who would you rank among the very best?
EURO: Oh, that would be Dale Dickey. Her performance in A Love Song is exactly the kind of turn the Independent Spirit Awards should be championing, and I'm thrilled that they did. If you haven't had a chance to check this charmer out, I highly recommend it
There are also a series of brilliant leading lady performances in acclaimed films that aren't in THE BIG 7 we'll soon be discussing: Tang Wei dominates the screen in Decision to Leave in a compelling turn that keeps us on edge; Rooney Mara, only slightly more "lead" than her costars, is one of the heartfelt standouts as she helps guide discussion in Women Talking; and let's put some respect on Keke Palmer's name by correctly signifying her as the co-lead of Nope, in hopes that we will see more leading opportunities that match her talents. Which "outside the conversation" leading actresses will be on your mind come nomination morning?
NICK: You’re so right about Tang Wei, and though I’m not as high on Palmer as you are, she and Kaluuya are a solid duet. And yes, she’s a lead.
PEARL
To return to the Indie Spirits ballot, I was very pleasantly surprised to see Mia Goth score a nomination for Pearl. It’s such a great turn, earning those gonzo explosions with a potent vision of spiraling insanity that’s just aware of itself enough for her to feel frightened of who she’s becoming. As far as horror performances go, I’m maybe even more impressed with Rebecca Hall in Resurrection, whose granular, finely-honed choices deliver a genuine character study in a movie that should’ve gotten to it’s big final sequence at least 15 minutes earlier than it does, in no small part because Hall’s conviction makes her final “shock” decision a fearsome inevitability.
Lastly, two stellar turns from films I’ve recently rewatched: Lee Hye-young in In Front of Your Face, forever deepening her film by constantly suggesting a whole world of unspoken thoughts on top of her sharp reactions; and Anamaria Vartolomei in Happening, blending her character’s intelligence, insolence, and many desires for her life into formidable multi-sided portraiture.
Any of these four would be wonderful nominees, and wildly outside the line of who the Academy would nominate. So, now that we got our creative juices flowing for our faves, what do you think of Oscar’s probable nominees, and who do you think is the likeliest contender for that fifth spot?
TILL
EURO: Well, let's start with the frontrunners. Cate Blanchett is giving an epic performance that almost serves as a "greatest hits" collection of the strengths we have seen from her roles over the years, but even so, my vote would go to Michelle Yeoh, whose combination of pathos, reactionary nuance and combat training are the perfect recipe for a performance unlike any I've seen before. What an insanely competitive year that Danielle Deadwyler, who is delivering one heartfelt Oscar clip after another, lands third on my list. Her Globes snub (for a Blonde nomination... I can't) is just a reminder that they go for big names and flashy movies, so I'm still confident in her chances. Any of these three would be top tier Best Actress winners, and I genuinely believe (and hope) they will recognize all three.
I'd be curious to hear if you doubt any of those, but let's move on. Michelle Williams is taking a big swing in The Fabelmans, giving a performance that I initially found overbearing but ultimately one that landed in a way that worked for me. I will admit, though, that I was mixed enough on the results to keep her out of my personal top five in this category. Will voters feel the same way? I apologize for saying this, but my personal take is that lead and supporting labels would both make sense here, depending on whether you think the sole lead of the film is LaBelle or the lead is shared by his fictional parents (and I'm genuinely happy to debate both sides of that argument). Assuming this isn't questioned, though, how divisive is this performance? Does it make sense to give The Fabelmans a slew of nominations without including her? I can't answer this, but I'm under the assumption that if the love for the film is there, we should assume she will show up.
And then there were three. Before we launch into them, any thoughts on the four I'm assuming we will see included?
NICK: Re: The alleged frontrunners. I think Blanchett’s giving a wild, entertaining performance in TÁR, but I admit I’d be annoyed on principle to see her win a third Oscar in less than twenty years. Share the wealth, goddammit! I’ll co-sign everything you said about Yeoh, who would be a tremendous winner and an unbelievable mold-breaker for the category’s palpably limited scope towards race and genre. I’m maybe even more in the tank for Deadwyler’s precise, heart-rending delineations of maternal grief and political awakenings, and as disappointing as it is to see her miss at the Globes, I think she has a shot so long as she shows at SAG and BFCA. I simply can't stand the thought of Chinonye Chukwu directing one of the best performances of the year only for her star to go unrecognized by Oscar twice. but you couldn’t go wrong with any of those choices. I really hope the sheer amount of high quality performances means no one sweeps, and I would be shocked/disappointed to see any of them miss.
THE FABELMANS
Williams excites me a little less than those three, but I wouldn’t expect her to miss a nomination. The movie’s taking off in a big way, she’s a repeat nominee (albeit one whose seemingly never been a frontrunner). I do think campaigning Lead makes sense, even if it likely kills her odds of winning - she’s such a fulcrum for the story, and her decision to play Mabel Longhetti as a Jane Wyman character is the kind of palpably risky acting that makes one stand out in a crowded ensemble (I imagine people would’ve called fraud if she went Supporting).
Meanwhile, newly minted Globe nominees Olivia Colman, Viola Davis, and Margot Robbie are shuttering around my predicted fifth slot, and now Ana de Armas, Emma Thompson, and Lesley Manville have some elbow room of their own. Who among this crowd do you think has the best shot with Oscar?
EURO: Listen, those dresses for Mrs. Harris are lovely but Manville has no elbow room for awards. Thompson was wonderful in Leo Grande, but I don't think her film has the buzz to get her in, and De Armas' film has plenty of buzz, but the worst kind. I refuse to acknowledge a world where she gets in when Marilyn herself never secured a nomination. Blonde is one of the most offensively terrible films I've ever seen (not exaggerating), so - please no. (I have a feeling older voters will struggle with it too.
Of the remaining three, Colman's film has died down to a whisper when it comes to its impact on the race. She's been on such an incredible run with the Academy recently, but with such an idiosyncratic character, I think this may be the year they take a pass. All of the film's best scenes involve its visual elements and its score, and I have a feeling if it does sneak a nomination or two, that will be the Academy's focus. It's hard to count out a performer they love so much, and in a weaker year, she'd easily make the cut. I just think our last two options are most likely to battle it out in the end.
Viola Davis is a possibility full of pros and cons. Pro: She championed her film, which turned into a minor box office hit (a big deal this year), in a way that the Academy will respect (think Kidman with Rabbit Hole or Theron with Bombshell, but more $). Con: Yeoh is already bringing an action heroine to the category, a type of role voters don't typically reward. Pro: Her film is pretty universally loved, unlike the split reviews for Robbie's Babylon, and she is a logical place to reward it. Con: While it's on the bubble for the Best Picture race, will the film show up anywhere else and will the Academy have seen it? Pro: Her nomination count is finally pushing her towards our top tier, and while the Academy might not think about this the way we do, they have to feel good about continuing to recognize her. In the end, there are so many reasons for her to be here, I end up leaning in her direction. Robbie is a livewire and might be undeniable in another big swing, but the question is, like Williams, how will that swing land with voters?
Which direction are you leaning with the final slot?
NICK: I have yet to experience Blonde, despite merciless prodding from Cláudio to see it so he can watch me fume. Despite the middling buzz for Empire of Light, Best Actress is often the acting category most willing to nominate a performer even if their film doesn’t have much else going for it. I wouldn’t count her out completely. I’d be pretty thrilled if Manville and Thompson snuck into Oscar’s favor, and I think the smallness of their films and performances might be an appealing counterbalance to some other contenders. I wonder if they’ll show up anywhere else among the televised awards - maybe BAFTA, since their film branch has never sprung for Colman?
BABYLON
Robbie’s giving what I would call a very nominatable performance in Babylon. Lots of big gestures and wild energy. She’s got plenty of good moments, especially when Nellie’s making movies, but the trajectory of the film and her character keep me from getting very excited about it. Still, of the women with a real shot at this slot, I’m rooting hardest for Viola Davis. I agree with your pros and cons about her odds and The Woman King’s chances overall, though I think the transformative aspects of the role are impressive enough to push her over the edge. Action hero Viola Davis is not a role anyone expected of her, and the novelty of that (along with the melodramatic historical polish) could count for a lot. And how cool would it be to have two action star turns in Best Actress from 57 and 60 year old actresses?
I have two more women to throw at your real quick, and then I’ll say my predictions. I wonder if JLaw has any chance to sneak in for Causeway? Hers is perhaps the quietest performance and the film has no buzz. But maybe that quietness from a former winner who was recognized for the high-volume star power Robbie’s pulling on might draw some eyes. The SAG screenings have certainly gone over well, from what we’ve read. And does the last-minute retitling of I Wanna Dance With Somebody mean the film is an evident flop and we don’t have to worry about Naomi Ackie?
CAUSEWAY
EURO: Either would need the momentum a SAG nomination could bring, but even if they showed, I don't see their films being strong enough in this field. Causeway's best hope is Brian Tyree Henry and if Ackie managed to edge into SAG, I expect her trajectory would match Jennifer Hudson's last year (and that's best case scenario). So here's my five:
- Cate Blanchett, TÁR
- Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Danielle Deadwyler, Till
- Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
- Viola Davis, The Woman King
Do we match?
NICK: We do match! with the upfront admission that keeping Deadwyler at #3 is as much a prayer for her chances as a bold act of copying and pasting your original reply. Robbie, Colman, and Thompson as the likeliest alternates, give or take my suspicions on Lawrence somehow pulling it out at the last minute.
RELATED
Best Director - with Eric & Glenn
Best Film Editing - with Ben & Nick
Best Costume Design - with Cláudio & Elisa
Best Production Design - with Eurocheese & Nick
Best Cinematography - with Eric and Chris
Best Makeup & Hair - with Nathaniel & Elisa
Best Original Score - with Carlos & Mark
Best Original Song - with Eurocheese & Baby Clyde
Best Actress Oscar Chart - Nathaniel's Updated Predictions
Reader Comments (23)
I’m having a sneaking suspicion that the Academy might do its own thing with Williams and nominate her for supporting. The Chicago Film Critics just did the same thing with their noms. And with BSA being such a wide open category, I can see it happening. Would be great if Best Actress somehow opened up a slot for someone like Emma Thompson.
Best Actor has given us some "where did he come from?" surprises before, but I can see that happening this year with Emma Thompson. If enough people have seen the film and are aware of the exemption, I think she's in.
Blonde is a mess, but Ana de Armas is amazing, so I’m rooting for her to crash the line-up. Also, from the same movie, I believe Julianne Nicholson delivered one of the best supporting performances of the year.
I think Cate and the Michelles are locked in place, and Margot is running 4th. Babylon is getting a ton of press, and it's a big, fun performance. Danielle and Viola and Ana (and others) are fighting for 5th.
My vision with Williams is that she is at that point of her Oscar history where they would prefer to give her the Oscar instead of another leading nomination.
So I think that there are two scenarios for her. Or she will surplisngly win the Globe, the sag and the BFCA and than the Oscar, or she will nominated everywhere except for the Academy Award.
Personally I would give any possible Oscar to The Fabelmans except to her
I can't get behind Davis as I think she was her usual stoic self which has become very stale,when will she loosen up in a movie,if she did maybe i'd take notice more,the supporting cast totally outshone her.
Thompson is good in Leo Grande but hardly revelatory apart from the 1 nude bit,she's still very Thompsian in it.
If Ackie's film were more widely seen and praised, i'd say her but even the Globes didn't go for it.
Colman will show if she's the new Streep if she makes it with her low wattage movie
That to me leaves De Armas in a divisive turn/movie that some people worship and she's playing MM.
5th spot goes to Robbie as I think Pitt will show up in supporting so it's not all first timers Gleeson,Keoghan,Quan and Dano,same reason I think Cruise will show up in Best Actor so that's not all newbies Nighy,Fraser,Farrell,Butler..
Haven’t seen any movies this year yet (sigh) but a Lesley Manville nomination would be a dream. Ps…my first time commenting, I thought my user name would be Oops Irene Dunne It Again, not my real name. But whatever, just wanted to put that out there.
Mia Goth in PEARL and Rebecca Hall in RESURRECTION need to be mentioned as worthy options every time this category comes up. The Academy's disinclination to nominate performances in horror films, a Fredric March or a Jodie Foster not withstanding, is becoming ridiculous considering the quality of work we've been seeing over the decades. It's still a joke that Jeremy Irons got his Oscar for REVERSAL OF FORTUNE and not DEAD RINGERS. Hopefully this will change with the maturing/diversifying of the Academy.
I’ve just seen “The Eternal Daughter” with Tilda Swinton playing both roles of the mother and the daughter. You know how good Tilda is, and here she has a really great role, that reminds you of everything you love about acting.
One thing is the awardstalk and building up the buzz etc. But in reality Angela Riseborough in "To Leslie" should be considered as one of the 5 nominees. I've never been a fan, but this role sort of came and amazed.
Others who should be considered, but are not in the talks:
Aamu Milonoff in The girl picture
Emma Mackey in Emily
Olivia Colman in Empire of light
Emily Watson in God's creatures
and maybe a lot less known, but for me 3rd best of the year - Antonia Zegers in The punishment/El castigo
But to be quite honest, the best of the year is Cate in TAR
Followed by Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
The other Michelle for me should get the nom more for her whole career, that this last role.
I hope Danielle gets in, but although a fan Viola Davis, but not a fan of Viola Davis as Woman King. Have not yet seen Babylon, but I would bet, that Margot is amazing in there...
I admire what Goth and Hall are doing in their films, but their films don't work and ultimately can't sustain what the actors are giving.
I'm still not sure on Williams tbh. I can easily see her missing as much as I can see de Armas getting in (would both she AND Deadwyler miss for the only two biopics in the mix?).
I think Davis might be stronger than people think. Like one of those actors who just shows up everywhere without ever having buzz to win.
John -- welcome. LOVE the user name you decided against ;) also love Irene Dunne
Kris -- Emily is getting a 2023 release heer in the US.
Glenn -- yeah, a nom for Ana De Armas wouldn't be *that* surprising given that the actors branch prizes biopic performances above all else historically
Cal - except it probably wouldn't be someone as awesome as Emma Thompson that benefitted. *cries*
It looks to me like the line-up is going to be Blanchett, Yeoh, Williams, Davis, and Robbie. This may be the first time in awhile that all 5 Best Actress nominees may come from Best Picture nominees.
For me the two best performances I saw this year are Cate Blanchett in Tar and Ana de Armas in Blonde. I would rank de Armas #1:on my ballot because she needs that ranking more than Blanchett does.
I definitely think de Armas will get some #1 and #2 votes but not enough to crack the top 5 unfortunately.
@Glenn "I admire what Goth and Hall are doing in their films, but their films don't work and ultimately can't sustain what the actors are giving."
For what it's worth, people who like horror films, especially in academia, can't stop talking about either PEARL or RESURRECTION. At the screening I attended of the former, people burst into applause at the end of Goth's big speech. And I consider RESURRECTION to be the one horror film of the last 20 years to approach "The Turn of the Screw." The fact that you can never really decide if Hall's character's experiences are real or if she's a #metoo era sexual hysteric gone over the edge lifts the film to the level of Henry James.
I know neither film burned down the box office, and RESURRECTION, if anything, worked so well that people left midway through the screening I attended, at a moment indicating it clearly made them too uncomfortable to continue watching.
For me a film that doesn't work is TILL. Despite Danielle Deadwyler's heroic performance, it never rises above the level of Oscar Bait. It's right there with MISSISSIPPI BURNING, THE LONG WALK HOME, GHOSTS OF MISSISSIPPI, THE HELP and other films that nobody ever watches after the year they came out. (TILL doesn't even have the courage to acknowledge Emmett's castration, which is key to understanding lynching as a crime related to male sexual hysteria about the "virile Black man"; if you're going to appeal to voters suffering from white liberal guilt, you can't make them feel TOO guilty, after all.). Still, nobody seems to think the mediocrity of TILL will keep Danielle Deadwyler out of the nomination circle.
I just wish people would vote for the performances, and forget about what they thought of the film as a whole. From that perspective, Deadwyler, Hall, Goth (and de Armas, BTW) would be considered for their work and their work alone.
Dan H : I too found Till mediocre. Thought Deadwyler was good - especially in the scene where she first sees her son's body. But the whole thing is lit like a Zoloft commercial and the film is oddly paced. Everything is too pretty. She'd probably be on my ballot but I wasn't as blown away as everyone else was.
Michael R: Yeah, I mean if the Academy wants to honor great performances by Black female actors in really good films, Angela Basset and Viola Davis are RIGHT THERE. Again, though, if I had a vote, I'd vote for the best performances, regardless of what I thought of the film, up to a point, anyway. I wouldn't have given any nominations to the one horror film to do well at the Oscars, SILENCE OF THE LAMBS, despite the film "working" at scaring an audience, because I find it both transphobic and homophobic.
But I'm really just surprised at the glib assertion that PEARL and RESURRECTION "don't work." Saying a film "doesn't work" is one half of a binary: "Works/Doesn't Work". When a critic gives a positive review to a film they're saying it works. A negative review is saying it doesn't (for the most part: Once in a while a critic will say, "this film doesn't really work, but you should still see it for these reasons....")
PEARL has a 91% fresh (film works) rating on Rotten Tomatoes. RESURRECTION has 82%. So the consensus is they work.
ELVIS only has 77%. THE WHALE has 67%. BABYLON has 65%, and yet the actors in those films are very much in play. That get's me back to my main point. Performers in horror films are not judged fairly by the academy. The fact that Deborah Kerr wasn't nominated for THE INNOCENTS, Mia Farrow for ROSEMARY'S BABY, JEFF GOLDBLUM for THE FLY, and Toni Collette for HEREDITARY is kind of ridiculous. But that's the Oscars.
My lists are always wild because I do go so hard for horror in my own viewing and criticism. Like, Mia Goth and Rebecca Hall are locks for me. So's Michelle Yeoh. If I had to pick right now, I'd add in Keke Palmer for Nope and Lesley Manville for Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris and call it a day.
I obviously don't think that's what the Oscars will go for and I still might shift my own thinking as I get through my streaming backlog over the next couple weeks. I'm thinking Blanchett, Yeoh, Colman, Deadwyler, and Manville, with Williams getting in for Supporting Actress despite the Lead Actress campaign.
Williams was so annoying in the Hollywood Reporter roundtable that I am actively rooting against her nomination. The movie was complete disturbing and haunts me still, but de Armas earned her spot for being dragged through "Blonde." This shows my age, but it's on par with Farrah Fawcett's performance in "Burning Bed," another movie where a glamorous actress gets puts through the paces and ends up on top.
My top 5
Michelle (Yeoh) for the win
Cate
Danielle
Ana
Queen Emma
Sixth spot--obviously Viola
I have nothing to add from a prediction perspective, but I just want to thank Nick for mentioning Anamaria Vartolomei; absolutely one of the best performances of the year.
Moreover, I enjoy board games. A minimum-income casino will provide you with enticing incentives if you become a patron. This is because gambling establishments with minimal minimum deposits entice you to play by providing bonuses. Consequently, if you want a rewarding experience without taking on a lot of financial risk Visit https://chilecasinoonline.com/casino-con-deposito-minimo/ as soon as possible. can assist you in finding a casino in Chile that only takes a small fee. We have put together a fantastic list of online casinos for Chilean players that have low minimum deposit requirements and have been thoroughly evaluated by our experts.
Online games are a great way to spend time. On Fridays we get together with friends and have fun playing different games of chance. You can learn more and I am sure that you will find yourself even more interesting. Good luck to you!