Oscar Volley: Best International Film is a pundit's nightmare
Wednesday, February 2, 2022 at 1:00PM With less than a week until nominations, Cláudio Alves and Elisa Giudici discuss Best International Feature…
Italy's THE HAND OF GOD
Cláudio Alves: Before we delve into the finalists for Oscar's Best International Feature Film competition, I must comment on the fact that we each come from a record-holding country in this category's history, albeit opposite ends of the success spectrum. As far as victories, Italy (your home) is the all-time champion, having won this prize 14 times. On the other hand, Portugal (mine) is still waiting for its first nomination, being the unnominated country with the most submissions. In fact, we've never even gotten as far as the shortlist stage (cries inconsolably)!
Anyway, since we're on the topic of our countries, I'm interested in knowing whether you think it's safe to predict Paolo Sorrentino's return to the Academy's favour with The Hand of God. I can't say I'm entirely convinced about the picture's merits...
Elisa Giudici: My brutally honest take on Sorrentino & Academy: The Great Beauty was carefully designed to be noticed (and to please) international audiences and an American audience in particular, while The Hand of God is a title Sorrentino made to face his demons. In the end, The Great Beauty is an iconic Fellini remix, isn’t it? and Federico Fellini remains the most beloved Italian director in history, and not just at the Oscars, while great colleagues (such as Visconti) are much less remembered and revered.
My prediction is that The Hand of God will make it to the final shortlist but as the fourth or fifth candidate, helped by Sorrentino’s previous victory and the huge support Netflix provides. The other ontenders don't see to be campaigning as hard, do they? I think Sorrentino's movie is less easy to digest than his Oscar winner (for several reasons that I've previously discussed). But in the absence of a real spotlight on very many “easy to watch / easier to love” movies I think Italy will collect yet another nomination.
Cláudio Alves: I guess designing The Great Beauty for international audiences worked because I remember loving it. Though, despite the obvious reference to Fellini's post-Neorealist 60s films, I felt its approach to the ideas of empty aestheticism and the beauty of nothingness more related to Visconti than the director of La Dolce Vita.
Japan's DRIVE MY CAR
Elisa Giudici I am curious to know if you think there is a real front runner this year. Drive My Car is aiming to be the next Parasite and end up in the Best Picture race, too. But I am not convinced, even with its impressive list of victories.
Cláudio Alves: On Drive My Car, I confess myself a passionate fan of Hamaguchi's three-hour epic. Nevertheless, I'm surprised by the picture's awards success and feel similarly unconvinced by its frontrunner status. It feels too arthouse somehow, and it's not like the Academy has ever shown any support to works of slow cinema. Still, a nomination seems secure. As far as victory goes, I could imagine a number of other contenders taking the gold, perchance riling up campaign efforts during the final voting period. If it's part of the lineup, I can see Norway's The Worst Person in the World going all the way, and the same can be said about Iran's A Hero. Despite Farhadi's complicated feelings about representing Iran, I doubt most Oscar voters are particularly attuned to such tricky intersections of international politics and art.
Finland's COMPARTMENT NO. 6
Speaking of films gaining steam as we get closer to voting, Finland's Compartment No. 6 seems like a stronger contender by the day. Honestly, I can picture it nabbing the award out of nowhere. Am I nuts?
Elisa Giudici: No, you aren’t. Sitting on a movie like Compartment No. 6 until the very end: that was nuts! Let’s be honest -- it's the safer alternative to The Worst Person in the World, at least by Academy standard. It is a movie about being a young adult but with a reassuring, sweet, “traditional” approach. Based on the nudity ratio alone, it is a stronger contender than Joachim Trier’s latest, which is more “artsy” and risqué in its sense of humor and way of describing life, love and everything between. I don’t think the stellar year the newly ascendant Russian movie star Yurij Borisov had in 2021 can help this title as it should (the other films haven't hit the US), but I am glad to hear Compartment No. 6 is gathering steam.
In my limited experience non cinema buffs (aka “normal people”) and older people tend to prefer Compartment to Worst Person while cinema buffs and younger people prefer Worst Person. My feeling here is Academy will let one in and one out. There is already so much Europe (too much?) in the long list. Do you think they will reserve a place for a non-European movie aside from Drive My Car or Hamaguchi’s will be alone again Old Continent titles*? Geopolitical balance is not a trivial matter in this category.
*Farhadi is not European but he is…Farhadi? I mean, he has already won two Oscars.
Denmark's FLEE
The there is Denmark with its impressive variety of movies making so many shortlists in the last decade. Denmark seems to be very good at picking its Oscar submission and meeting Academy’s expectations, but they are not as strong in the festival circuit and other international competitions. I saw Flee campaigning for Best Picture too. I don't think it can take the role of front runner from Hamaguchi's hands.
Cláudio Alves: While I prefer The Worst Person... to Compartment No. 6, I'm colder on both than most. However, I can see your proposed scenario happening, whereupon the Academy only goes for one Nordic contender. Of course, AMPAS has little concern for geopolitical niceties if their customary Eurocentric selections are anything to go by. Plus, as you point out, there's Farhadi to consider. A Hero and Drive My Car are already taking up two-fifths of the lineup. If the Academy picks one more non-European film, we'd have a majority non-European race. That seldom happens. Last decade, it only occurred thrice, and two of those times involved Canada.
Continuing this mathematical musing, Flee feels like a sure thing. Denmark is AMPAS' favorite country as of late, having accumulated a grand total of six nominations and two victories since 2010. However, despite such number-based assurances, I can't shake a gut feeling that the film is heading into a shocking Oscar morning. Its attempt at broaching three different "specialty" categories seems bound to divide votes. I can't imagine it getting into all three. Indeed, I can picture a sad reality where it gets into none. Denmark's Oscar numbers keep those fears away but don't obliterate them.
Panama's PLAZA CATEDRAL
All that being said, this category is known for surprises, so maybe this appeal to statistical authority is wrong-headed. After reading predictions and reactions from Nathaniel and Abe, I'm starting to see a scenario where Lunana and Plaza Catedral crash the party. One thing's for sure, they both have strong narratives on their side. Bhutan's submission is the little flick that could, a loveable underdog that came back from a disqualification last year to make the shortlist this time around. As for Panama's selection, it offers an easily digestible purview of class divides while also bringing with it a searing real-life tragedy. Knowing that the adolescent leading man died after getting shot on the street– a reflection of one of the narrative's plot points – may lead to Academy members casting a eulogizing vote.
Re-reading my words, the glaring cynicism makes me feel uneasy. However, awards can be cynical in their workings, political as hell, and utterly divorced from artistic merit. Could you envision one or both of those films getting surprise nominations?
Mexico's PRAYERS FOR THE STOLEN
Elisa Giudici Glad you paved the way to some cynical scenarios: here's mine. I was going to suggest a what-if one based on the sense of guilt alone. I think at a certain point someone will raise a hand and suggest locking a place for a “representative candidate” to avoid negative reactions. In representation of what is the real question. One answer as you suggested could be “countries never/seldom represented” or in other words someone outside Europe and well-established middle or Far East countries (Iran and Japan). In 2022, another good answer could be “a woman director”. I am eyeing Mexico's Prayers for the Stolen, a perfect answer to both questions. I am really curious to see Maria Schrader’s I'm Your Man (Germany's finalist), but again, it’s a European title, and a weaker one in buzz and reviews.
I know it’s old news but speaking of women I am always surprised how bad the French commission is at playing the Oscar game: the Italian record would have been broken years ago if they weren't since they still get nominated frequently despite their missteps. Titane's submission is a perfect example of a great movie that's just suitable for the Academy’s taste, while Petite Maman would have been perfect. It’s short, it’s lovely and sweet, and bonus points for adorable young child protagonists. Moreover, Celine Sciamma is not unknown to Americans: I think she has a silent but growing fanbase even within the Academy.
Germany's I'M YOUR MAN
Cláudio Alves: Regarding the matter of a "representative candidate," I could see that happening once upon a time, when the voting for this category was more restricted. Nowadays, it's open to any member who has seen all shortlisted titles, making such conspiratorial conversations/decisions much more implausible. All that being said, I hope your Prayers for the Stolen wish/prediction comes true. It's one of my favorite films of the year, and Tatiana Huezo currently tops my own Best Director ballot. Regarding I'm Your Man, I heartily recommend it, both for an ingenious script and superb performances.
I don't think the French film industry is especially fond of Celine Sciamma, considering how Petite Maman was unilaterally shut out of all César categories. Happening would have been the best submission, I think, even though a lack of American release might have swayed the selection committee away from it. Titane was my favorite of the three French finalists for submission, but I agree that it's the kind of cinematic experience that was never going to work with the Academy.
Elisa Giudici: I want some French cinema insider voice on the "Sciamma-gate” because year after year I get contradictory pieces of news and gossip about it. Being the Cannes winner is a huge plus in France, that’s for sure. I think Petite Maman would be amazing Oscar material because it lacks any kind of controversial theme, while Happening is still a movie about abortion. I would love to dismiss it as “not a problem”, but...
Speaking of almost-sure nominations jeopardized by national commissions, what do you think of Spain's choice to snub Pedro Almodóvar's Parallel Mothers? I think it would have helped Penelope Cruz's chances, too.And yet The Good Boss made it to the international longlist… am I underestimating Javier Bardem's star value? For the record, I think he is much better in The Good Boss than in Being the Ricardos.
Spain's THE GOOD BOSS
Cláudio Alves: Spain is a prickly issue. I'm not sure I ever divulged this on the blog, but I lived in Spain, specifically Madrid, between 2018 and 2019. Indeed, I was in a relationship with someone who, like Milena Smit's Ana, comes from a family that prizes a particular apolitical stance regarding the country's fascist past. Many of the issues Almodóvar brings up in Parallel Mothers are still controversial nowadays, his repudiation of a rule of silence being especially destabilizing. Hell, when I was in Madrid, there was polemic surrounding the Municipal Assembly's move to change the name of certain streets still baptized after Franco's generals. In summation, I think the committee might have chosen the option bound to cause less trouble at home. Plus, The Good Boss dominated the Goyas, proving how much the Spanish film industry loves it. Personally, I don't share that adoration (AT ALL) though I agree that Bardem's much better here than in Sorkin's latest prestige flick.
Moving on to a more joyous subject, I'm happy to see that the Great Freedom, Austria's finalist, is gaining more fans all the time. Sebastian Meise's film would be a surefire nominee if it were up to me, but I don't want to let my preferences cloud the punditry. Do you think that gay drama has a chance at a surprise Oscar nod?
Elisa Giudici: I don’t think it is possible to be *that* good in predicting the outcome of this particular category because there are so many elements to consider both inside the Academy and outside. Fom the very start -- the choice of the candidate to submit! I was naive not seeing the possible issues with Parallel Mothers. I tend to forget sometimes commissions have other things in mind than maximizing chances to get a nomination. Your take on The Good Boss is not that uncommon. For this reason, for me The Good Boss was one of the biggest surprises in the finalist list: I thought it went unnoticed outside Spain. As people living outside LA and NY, it can be extra difficult to make predictions: sometimes you just miss the buzz.
Iran's A HERO
I have to confess I am quite fond of good (?) old “calculated conspiracy” within this category. Yet it seems to me this year there are very few locked titles, while there are a lot of strong contenders and well-deserving underdogs. You’re right in pointing out that the larger size of the voting audience has to be taken into consideration. I would say Drive My Car is the only 100% sure bet, followed by A Hero. Then there is a crowded group of strong contenders with a "but" attached. In theory, Flee should be a sure thing, but I share your concerns. I would call it a “bad feeling”.
Austria's GREAT FREEDOM
Like Compartment No.6, Great Freedom is joining the party late in terms of buzz … maybe too late? Though it has a small following I assume the Austrian gay drama will be the first one left out when voters consider the movies after 'the big ones'.
At this point in our volley, I'm feeling a little bit paranoid!
I have just checked a couple of notes on last year's Oscar race: I felt sure about 3 titles, but I was soooo wrong about one (yet I read correctly read the vibe around Tunisia’s entry). Do you think the current race is harder or easier to predict than last year?
Cláudio Alves: I feel you on the paranoia. The tone of our chat is gradually devolving into a 70s thriller, full of Gordon Willis shadows and deadly conspiracies. I'm half-expecting Warren Beatty to pop out of nowhere at any moment.
But seriously, I agree with you regarding the inexistence of locks beyond (maybe) Drive My Car. Even A Hero feels vulnerable, considering the sheer amount of high-profile titles it's competing against. Indeed, that seems to be the most significant difference this time, is that usually there are only a couple of 'major' flicks and then a wide variety of more obscure finalists to choose from. Looking back at my notes from 2021, my final predictions missed two out of five. I thought Dear Comrades and Night of the Kings were going to make it instead of The Man Who Sold His Skin and Better Days. The biggest surprise was surely the Hong Kong submission succeeding, which makes me wonder about a possible nomination for Belgium's Playground, another harrowing tale of school bullying.
Bhutan's LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM
Still, it's time to stop second-guessing and commit to a set of predictions for the sake of our volley. These guesses might still change until Oscar nomination morning but, for now, I'm predicting:
- DRIVE MY CAR, Japan (the only contender I'd call a sure thing)
- A HERO, Iran (actors are the Academy's most extensive branch, and actors love Farhadi)
- THE HAND OF GOD, Italy (for all its regional specificity, I think AMPAS is ready to give Sorrentino and Netflix another nod)
- COMPARTMENT NO. 6, Finland (our chat convinced me of its chances compared to Norway's title)
- LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM, Bhutan (it was just released in the US, and Nathaniel's prediction has convinced me it's this year's surprise nominee)
Though, if I were to choose the nominees from Oscar's finals, they would be Austria's Great Freedom, Denmark's Flee, Germany's I'm Your Man, Japan's Drive My Car, and Mexico's Prayers for the Stolen. How about you, Elisa? What do your predictions and dream ballot look like, as of now?
Elisa Giudici: My predictions here and now (2 AM in the night here in Italy, the perfect time for conspiracy theories, paranoia, and Oscar guesswork) are:
- DRIVE MY CAR, Japan - Hamaguchi can sleep soundly
- A HERO, Iran
- WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD, Norway - I am counting on younger Academy members here
- THE HAND OF GOD, Italy - I am obliged to fully endorse the Italian entry
- COMPARTMENT NO. 6, Finland
Flee’s exclusion is such a risky prediction. I daresay in a better world, some of these films would also be locked up in the Best Picture race, too.
Norway's THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
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Reader Comments (7)
I've seen 8 of the finalists so far and A Hero is my very favorite, then Flee and Prayers for the Stolen. Hand of God is easily my least favorite. The Great Beauty is probably the least deserving winner of the last decade, so Sorrentino already has one Oscar more than he deserves.
And while we're on Italian cinema, RIP Monica Vitti. Everyone go watch an Antonioni movie in her memory.
I find it quite disappointing that, out of 93 films, the Academy decided to nominate 10 European entries. There are no representatives from South America or Africa. There is good cinema everywhere, but the Academy seems to stick with festival movies from countries which have big budget for marketing and campaigning (Panama and Bhutan aside).
That said, I loved A Hero. It's my No. 1 this year so far. I wish all these entries were more accessible to viewers - it can be really hard to watch some of these.
You have to think a country like Spain just simply doesn't want to submit Almodovar every single time. I can't think of a French film that would've won the Oscar in recent times, there always seems to be something more in their wheelhouse. I don't know that I've ever seen a Portuguese film accessible enough to be nominated.
The Hand of God is far and away my favorite film, period, of the year. I've never seen anything else by Sorrentino, and I'd only call myself a fan of a single Fellini film, but there were so many things about this picture that moved, and rang true for, me. I found it hilarious almost from the get-go, and then, of course, the second half is awash in sorrow -- but maybe "sorrow" isn't the right word. The second half is stunted with grief, with disbelief. Come the end, it has stood the sadness and hilarity, the shock and beauty on a precipice, in a kind of perfect tension with one another.
Wow. Just discovered A Hero is on Amazon Prime. Off to watch now.
I have 3 strong favourites this year: Finland, Iran and Mexico.
Have seen all 15 and I really don't care which other 2 will join these 3, as long as the favourites are in! :)
I guess Japan and Norway are closest to being "locks" this year, so I these 2 most probably will grab nominations.
Although we can't really count out most of these 15. I do have to say, although I was shocked by the sentence at the end of Panama's movie, I guess that one is on the 15th place. Spain's entry was just average and not a good movie at all. And Iceland's Lamb is way too freaky to get a nomination... So these 3 would be the only 3 true suprises this year, if the'd by a miracle would get nominated.
But I would not mind too much, if Bhutan, Germany or italy would grab Japan's or Norway's nom from their hands...
I have similar hesitation about declaring Drive My Car the frontrunner even though on paper it most definitely seems to be, but on the other hand, A Hero is the film I feel is it’s biggest competition, and there’s one simple reason why I’m even more hesitant to predict a win for it: should A Hero win, Asghar Farhadi would be tied with Ingmar Bergman with three wins in this category, putting him at joint 2nd all-time after Fellini (who won four times). I love Farhadi, but is the Academy really ready to place him in THAT company? Then again, is that something most voters would even be aware of?