The Case for Kristen Stewart Winning the Oscar
Wednesday, February 23, 2022 at 1:42PM By Ben Miller
Kristen Stewart for the Vanity Fair "Hollywood" Issue.
We still have over four weeks to go until the 2021 Oscars ceremony takes place, but the intrigue is beginning to ramp up. When Kristen Stewart’s portrayal of Princess Diana in Spencer was among the nominees, I immediately thought to myself…she could still win the Oscar because....
The Race is Wide-Open
No consensus has solidified around any nominee in Best Actress. Lady Gaga was the only actress to land nominations at every televised precursor, but she was left out on nomination morning. Every other nominee has missed somewhere, so there is a still a question of passion and who the Oscars most want. Upcoming awards might solidify a consensus, but there certainly isn’t one right now.
Isn’t it great to have a category where you could see any of the five nominees potentially walking away with the statue? We thought it was great when four of the five Best Actress nominees from 2020 had a shot, but it’s even better this time. This is what the Oscar categories should shoot for: a wide-open category.
The Performance/Film
Paul Thomas Anderson spoke for many critics about Spencer‘s reaction. “Obviously not enough people saw Spencer, because there’s no way you could pay attention to what we do and not give that film more recognition. Not just for Kristen Stewart’s performance, which is astonishing, but just across the board it’s an incredibly well-done film. But it’s not unlike all the other categories.”
Anderson is on his own campaign tour, but he said what a lot of critics already think. She has already walked away with 23 critics awards for Best Actress, plus five runners-up citations to go along with 16 other nominations. 40+ critics citations aren’t an accident.
She Might Want It
Stewart was nonchalant about her Oscar chances back in November, telling Variety’s Clayton Davis, “I don’t give a shit.” Many pundits counted her out, but maybe she was fooling herself. She seemed downright ecstatic on nomination morning.
Though not on the Gaga-levels of press, she is still out there putting in the effort. The Academy wants performers to want the award, but not too much. She definitely isn’t overdoing it, but you can find her in Vanity Fair’s Hollywood Issue, People Magazine, and told Stephen Colbert she might even get married at any moment.
The Oscars Like to Share the Wealth
This race reminds me a lot of the 2002 Best Actor lineup. Four previous Oscar winners (Jack Nicholson, Nicolas Cage, Michael Caine, and Daniel Day-Lewis) were up against a first-time nominee (Adrien Brody). In the lead-up to the ceremony, many pundits saw it as a race between Nicholson and Day-Lewis. But on Oscar night, Adrien Brody was able to walk away with the statue.
Plenty of pundits are already doing the same thing. With Gaga no longer in the mix, predictions are mostly split on giving a second Best Actress Oscar to either Colman or Kidman. The Oscars always lean towards their favorites, but Kidman and Colman don’t feel like they are at that level yet. That leaves the door wide-open for Stewart.
Lady Gaga’s exclusion left a gap for some actress to fill. Stewart benefited on nomination morning and it could find her gracing the Oscar stage.
Reader Comments (26)
Please no. Anyone but her. She's laughably bad in Spencer.
Is it true the Oscars are giving out 8 awards BEFORE the ceremony even starts?
I haven't seen Cruz yet, but of the other 4, Stewart is my easy winner. I do not at all understand the resistance some people have toward her, like some anti-cool girl bias or something. She was a living, breathing poem as Diana. I was blown away.
In order of preference:
Cruz
Colman
Stewart
Chastain
Kidman
In order of probability (IMHO of course):
Chastain
Cruz
Kidman
Colman
Stewart
As soon as I saw Spencer this fall, I was convinced she would be nominated and at the same time convinced she would not win. If she continues to grow as an actress and make savvy choices, Stewart'll win sooner than later. But not this year.
She is good, but honestly who isn't in that lineup? I'd be satisfied with anyone winning. Still, the trend in this category lately has been to reward previous winners (Zellwegger, McDormand x2) so that may give an advantage to Kidman, Colman or Cruz.
But who are we kidding? It'd be cool to see a KStew win. It's also a good, acclaimed movie in a role that showed us something new from her that not everyone thought she could pull off. It'd be a better win that Lawrence or Stone or some of the recent young winners.
Chastain should win, but if it's not her, it should be Stewart.
I'd much appreciate it if the three previous winners (Kidman, Colman, Cruz) took a seat.
I love Jessica Chastain and Nicole Kidman. They are brilliant, adventurous, talented artists. But I don’t want either of them to win for these particular movies.
I don’t want to be explaining for years to come, when people say, I don’t know why you love Chastain or Kidman, I saw their award movie and it wasn’t very good.
So I’m for the other three. First, Penelope Cruz, who is wonderful, and whose other award was a Supporting rather than a Lead. Then either the deserving Stewart or the always fascinating Colman.
This race isn't about who has the strongest shot at winning the Oscar: It's about who ultimately has the least weak shot of winning the Oscar.
I wouldn't be shocked to learn that this year's winner wins with a 25 or 30% plurality. Of course we'll never know.
I really hope there's more support for a Chastain win than seems evident. I think she has some things going for her that the others don't (non-repeat winner and I think she's highly respected amongst her peers at the same time). I think they'd give it to Kidman over Colman. I don't think Stewart has much of a shot, the nomination was her win.
My heart wants Chastain to win i'd be a Ga Ga voter if she was here but Stewart has the heat.
I am leaning toward a shock Colman 2nd or a Cruz victory a la Marcia Gay Harden anyone but KIdman or Stewart as they are the performances I like least in the category and the overall year.
I'm not so sure the case for her is all that compelling. Yes, she won a ton of critical awards, but she lost at some of the biggest groups. When you consider the other actors who have recently won with a ton of critical support - JK Simmons, Mahersla Ali, Regina King - they all did it by winning a share of the critics awards including the major critics awards. I also don't think, in a world where all the actors got good critical notices, that winning critics awards is a compelling enough case for the academy. That's what the nomination and critics wins are for!
I just think Stewart is in an odd position. She's not really a new discovery, which the academy likes to crown. She doesn't feel overdue on her first nomination, which the academy likes to crown. And she doesn't feel like she's the performer with a list of performances that one can point to in order to say "we love her, it's time." At least, the academy hasn't really recognized those performances before.
I also think she's hampered by the recency of the Crown and the fact that her film adds very little to the Diana conversation generally, so sadly, it feels as if she's not adding that much as a performer (though she does). Renee was lucky that there was basically a 20 year gap between her and Judy Davis' renditions of Garland. I think if her film had come out before Season 4 of the Crown, she'd be in a much stronger position.
As the case stands for now, she just doesn't feel undeniable.
This is really a tough call. The race is razor-close. However, I honestly think Chastain deserves to win because she simply gave the best performance. And there's the overdue factor, she's been snubbed many times before, she's well-loved, she works hard, and the level of difficulty in her role is through the roof. I think she's got an excellent shot. If it's not her, then it's Colman. But my personal runner-up is Cruz.
My guess now is it goes to Kidman. On nominations day, I thought Stewart could retake the pole position in the award I'd originally though was hers to lose. I loved the movie and the performance, but now I think too many people find the movie off-putting. The movie depicts (spoilers) a fictional episode where the princess pouts around as people try to shoo her through various weird rituals, before she sees the ghost of Anne Boleyn sitting down with her for the worst formal dinner imaginable, after which she absconds with her children and makes a break for KFC, all in a mostly pointless cycle that we know eventually ends in her death. This just doesn't seem like a good movie to most normie filmgoers, and I'm afraid the Academy is more normie than we like to admit. (It has 52% audience score on RT. Even seemingly strange winners like Colman in The Favourite (70%) and McDormand in Nomadland (82%) do significantly better.)
On the other hand, the Lucy film, which I thought was really mediocre, is at least mediocre in ways the Academy loves! A near-middle aged woman fights against an arrogant and misogynistic system -- and wins! To quote bad screenwriting terms, you always know who you're supposed to "root for" and what the "stakes" are.
I wonder if the Academy also sees both women that way. Nicole, a determined survivor who's produced shows and fought for her position, versus Kristen, a woman who's a little too weird and inscrutable for their tastes.
Such a fun category!! I hope the precursors spread the wealth too, like they did last year, and keep us guessing up until Oscar night.
Outside of Zola, Spencer was the only movie I genuinely had an amazing time with this year (I didn't see every single movie, of course, but...) so I was very happy Kristen Stewart got nominated, especially considering how rocky her precursor journey got at one point in time. I would love if she won.
I would love if Jessica Chastain won, because she was probably very close for Zero Dark Thirty, and she's missed several nominations (A Most Violent Year should've been any easy nom). She's a fantastic actress. Still haven't seen this movie, and that's what's holding me back bc it gives me very cheap vibes... I cannot shake the terrible prosthetics.
I would love if Nicole won bc I'd love for her to have another Oscar, but for this film? No.
Olivia Colman is becoming an Oscar fav. Had she not beat Glenn Close, she'd be a slam dunk win this year.
Penélope Cruz would be a very deserving winner... and unlike the other two previous winners here, her Oscar is for supporting, which helps. Normally she'd be a "the nomination is her win" type of nod, but this race is open enough to say she has a chance. The talk of her performance was strong enough to build to a nomination, so...
Honestly, you really could make a case for any of them.
If The Eyes of Tammy Faye wins hair/makeup in the pre-show, Chastain might have a shot after all.
My current prediction ranking...
1. Kidman
2. Colman
3. Cruz
4. Chastain
5. Stewart
She is my least favorite in this line up; she has some good moments but I also feel there are moments she cannot get out of how ridiculous the movie can be at times. However, I am fine if she wins; I think she has proven herself although I think she will get even better so I hope they wait to reward her.
I actually like all these nominees. I know it's not popular opinion to like this Kidman's performance but I think she is very good and she gives an excellent movie star performance. It seems people wish Kidman will win her 2nd for a "cool" movie; however since I like this performance, I have no problem with her winning; besides, Oscar will never be that cool to reward her in her daring projects. They don't even nominate her during her peak years for her daring projects; what will make them do that now? Also, like it or not, it's not like many directors lining up to give daring projects to women over 50.
If I have to pick though, I'll reward Chastain. She also has proven herself and even though the movie is mediocre, she rises above the movie. The only one I don't want to win is Olivia Colman and not because she is not good. She is very good and I like her; however I think she is entering her prime and she has so many upcoming baity projects so they will have many opportunities to reward her the 2nd. Also, she is already an Oscar winner.
Ranking based of performances:
1. Chastain
2. Kidman
3. Colman
4. Cruz
5. Stewart
1 to 4 are interchangeable and Stewart is fine.
My preference of who I want to win:
1. Chastain
2. Kidman
3. Cruz
4. Stewart
5. Colman
I am happy for whoever wins this.
If she wins, we're all doomed.
I want her to win, but it has occurred to me that a win would be terrible for her career, while just a nomination could be much more helpful. Always true with relatively young actresses. She does feel like someone who has been just outside the conversation a few times, so I'm glad she's in the club and curious to see what she does next.
I still think Kidman has a slight edge, but I think I would only be surprised by Chastain.
From a strictly business point of view (sorry!) she's the only winner that makes sense.
She’s the only one I really can’t see winning? I can make cases for all the others. But I guess if the race is a “wide-open” as everyone wants to believe, In terms of likelihood, from where we are pre-SAG/etc….
5. Stewart. Surely the fifth slot. So little love for this whacky movie throughout the industry. I imagine many voters have already been convinced they won’t like it and won’t watch. No SAG nom, lone nominee, divisive movie.
4. Chastain. Makeup! So much makeup!
3. Colman. For the Glenda Jackson of it.
2. Cruz. Maybe wishful thinking! Maybe no one will ever overcome the Best Actress SAG stat, but if someone ever does, my guess is SPC will have something to do with it. Cruz never left my predictions because of the magic they work, campaigning focused to Academy voters. It’s subtitled, but it’s Almodóvar. It may just be a matter of enough voters watching her. Not a SAG nominee, but not a lone nominee and in what may be least divisive movie from this lineup.
1. Kidman. Maybe the Globe win means nothing, who knows. Although the film missed in Screenplay, Score, and Picture, *three* nominations from the largest branch in the Academy makes it hard to not conclude that she’s probably winning this.
I found this film and Stewart's performance to be exhausting, but I wouldn't be surprised if she won. I am still holding out hope for Chastain or Cruz.
Well, I do think Spencer is her best work to date, but I don't love that performance (film) like lots of people do. I still want Chastain to win it because she deserves it, she's overdue and she was snubbed at least 3 times recently. Colman is great, but she doesn't need another Oscar & Kidman might win, but boy it'd be for a disappointing film in a brilliant career. Cruz is the only one that I'd be okay winning instead of Chastain, cause she's incredible, and kinda makes sense she'd win for an Almodóvor collaboration.
HowdareU--cosign every word. Chastain's recent snubs are truly insulting because they are obvious and cold. I hope she wins but Cruz would be my No. 2.
I just don't see this at all. No SAG/BAFTA nom + no other Oscar noms for the film strikes me as impending doom.
I’ll be happy with any of the nominees winning. I’m rooting for Cruz, but I could see Stewart winning. The critical support and season-long narrative is there. Chastain can take it if they go back and watch the film. And Kidman wins if they really want to recognize her performance on the AMC ad. I’ll be surprised if her or Colman takes it.
Is Gaga the first actress to miss since Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky with all the key precursors?
I have a hard time supporting Stewart because I loathed the film. I gave it a good 45 minutes before shutting it off. I'm a strong Royal supporter but this film made very little sense.
My choice is Chastain, who's been snubbed before. I think Nicole was fair at best, Colman doesn't need another this soon (she'll have a ton more films) and suspect Penelope is supposed to treat her nomination in an Almodovar film as "her Oscar".
I may be wrong. It'll be fun watching!
Chastain for the win!!! If not her, Colman.
Stewart was OK, at best