SAG Predictions

 by Nathaniel R

Randolph and Giamatti both feel like sure things at SAG.

With SAG currently in the midst of their nominating process and just two weeks until SAG announces their nominees (January 10th), we have to wonder how “set” the acting fields are at this point in awards season. SAG has been known to throw one (sometimes two) curveballs in the traditional categories and year to year the “Outstanding Cast” award is always a mystery as there are no real precursors for it and general individual Oscar traction can only take you so far in a broader category, even if the traction is assumed to be related to the closest Oscar parallel (Best Picture). Let's look at the six film awards from the Screen Actors Guild Awards and predict....

predicted nominees are in bold

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Sure things

• Bradley Cooper, Maestro

• Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

• Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

It would be a shock to see any of them miss but shocks do occasionally happen. 

 Will Jeffrey Wright be nominated. And will that campaign have coattails?

Vying for the other two slots?

• Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

• Colman Domingo, Rustin

• Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

• Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

I think DiCaprio makes it with SAG even if he doesn’t with Oscar – hell, he even made it in for J Edgar (remember that? Of course not!). Domingo, Scott, and Wright are all far more deserving this year but deserve has little to do with it once we’re in the thick of awards season. It’s all about buzz buzz buzz and the profile of the star or movie they’re in. SAG voters sometimes lack imagination and just go with the highest profile stars; Only the Globes get dinged for this in the media but it’s a problem in general, one that’s only exacerbated by big spending Oscar campaigns and precursor awards voters thinking of themselves as pundits*. I’m going to guess Wright makes it in over Domingo but I do have to wonder if there will be a surprise nominee.

*They shouldn’t ever do this but, alas, they do. 

Potential Curveballs

• Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro

• Zac Efron, The Iron Claw

• Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

• Teo Yoo, Past Lives

Any of them would be exciting names to hear called out, not just because they’re good in their pictures but because it would, at least temporarily, shake up perceptions of the race and encourage Oscar voters to watch more of the films. 

ACTRESS IN  A LEADING ROLE

 

Sure things

• Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

• Emma Stone, Poor Things

They should start lining up their gowns for January through March events. They’ll be invited everywhere.

Vying for the other three slots

• Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

• Annette Bening, Nyad

• Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall

• Greta Lee, Past Lives

• Carey Mulligan, Maestro

• Natalie Portman, May December

• Margot Robbie, Barbie
  

This will be interesting. While Huller, Lee, and Mulligan have enjoyed raves (and awards traction), I’m less convinced that they’re slam dunks with the more mainstream voting body of SAG. Not with Fantasia Barrino currently topping the box office with The Color Purple in the middle of voting and Barbie herself, Margot Robbie, as an option. Mulligan has had a spotty awards record despite her acclaim so we’re guessing it’s Natalie Portman in the actor-friendly May December for the fifth slot.

Potential Curveballs

• Jessica Chastain, Memory

• Helen Mirren, Golda

• Cailee Spaeney, Priscilla

• Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Remember when Helen Mirren made it for Woman in Gold? Remember when Sarah Silverman made it in for I Smile Back. Anything is possible! 

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Sure things

• Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer

• Ryan Gosling, Barbie

• Mark Ruffao, Poor Things

It’s getting impossible to imagine the Oscar lineup without these three and SAG doesn’t tend to get creative in supporting actor.

Vying for the two open slots

• Sterling K Brown, American Fiction

• Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

• Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

• Charles Melton, May December

SAG is less resistant to young male actors than Oscar so Melton is probably in. SAG is also very familiar with  Sterling K Brown who has won 4 SAGs (albeit all in the “Outstanding Cast” realm) so I predict he leapfrogs past the more obvious choices of Dafoe and De Niro. 

Potential Curveballs

• John Magaro, Past Lives

• Peter Sarsgaard, Memory

• Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

A potential curveball seems unlikely in Supporting Actor in particular since this has been an awards season that hasn’t demonstrated that people are thinking about a deep bench of supporting actors (or films for that matter). 

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Sure things

• Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

• Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Blunt seems like the type of performer that could be a shocking miss on Oscar nomination morning regardless of her film’s popularity BUT the Screen Actors Guild has been on her side consistently in the past with 3 nominations (and a win!)  for her film work – a stark contract to that 0 total with Oscar. 

Vying for the two open slots

• Erika Alexander, American Fiction

• Jodie Foster, Nyad

• Taraji P Henson, The Color Purple

• Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret

• Julianne Moore, May December

Curiously I keep thinking Julianne Moore will miss the Oscar nomination this year (despite what appears to be considerable traction) but I feel certain she’ll make it with SAG. This is how the punditry brain works (or overworks as the case may be). Jodie Foster feels less and less likely with Oscar (given that there’s not much heat around a nomination for Bening) but on the other hand SAG voters are sometimes a month or so behind the buzz. Taraji P Henson remains a possibility with The Color Purple being popular at the right time but nobody is really raving about her performance (all the heat is with Danielle & Fantasia). Tossing up my hands and predicting that this is the category in which we get a curveball nominee…

Potential Curveballs

• Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

• Viola Davis, Air

• America Ferrera, Barbie

• Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers

• Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Here is where Barbie’s phenomenal popularity pays off in a big way.

OUTSTANDING STUNT ENSEMBLE

This category is now 17 years old but it still feels hard to read. The only thing we know for certain is that Best Picture traction gives you a considerable boost even in this unlikely place (Yes, we’re still baffled by that Trial of the Chicago 7 nomination). On the other hand are they really going to place Barbie and Oppenheimer everywhere? 

Predictions

• Ferrari

• The Iron Claw

• Killers of the Flower Moon

• Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1

• Napoleon

Other Possiblities 

• Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania

• Barbie

• Cassandro

• The Color Purple

• The Creator

• Fast X

• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3

• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

• John Wick Chapter 4

• The Killer 

• The Marvels

• Oppenheimer

• Poor Things

• Society of the Snow

Wild guess work there.

Okay now on to the big Kahuna, 

OUTSTANDING CAST 

Sure things

• Barbie

• Oppenheimer

This category is often volatile with films that feel like sure things somehow not landing and films where tiny casts are all nominated individually getting an extra nod here. But one thing that remains the "surest bet" in this category is the combination of a lot of Best Picture heat and a sprawling famous cast. So the world will have no break from “Barbenheimer”; The world doesn’t yet want a break!

Vying for the other three slots?

• Air

• American Fiction

• The Color Purple

• The Holdovers

• Killers of the Flower Moon

• May December

Potential Curveballs

• The Iron Claw

• Past Lives

• Saltburn

This is always so hard to predict. But we’re going with American Fiction (which feels like the riskiest guess), Killers of the Flower Moon (due to Best Picture heat), and The Color Purple (surging at the right time and also being a musical which SAG likes) edging out the much smaller if also buzzy casts  of The Holdovers and May December. On the other hand if Ben Affleck's Air is going to strike anywhere this awards season, wouldn’t it be right here in this very category?

It’s a pity, generally speaking, that guild voters dont think harder about this category though as it would be nice to occasionally see a film recognized just because a large cast was  all in sync with a singular vision (like, oh, Asteroid City) or because a tiny cast were all raising each other’s games in a film reliant on their interplay (like, oh, All of Us Strangers or Past Lives) or because everyone was just really good even if there’s not one obvious standout performance to pin a full campaign on (like, oh, The Iron Claw).    

So yes, I’m predicting Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon leading with 4 nominations across the 6 film categories followed by a few others hitting 3 nominations (American Fiction, The Color Purple, May December, and Oppenheimer) That's all. Do share your own predictions in the comments. 

Comments

[Ryan T.]

Are all the heat really on Danielle Brooks and Fantasia? Because all I keep hearing about ever since the movie came out is Taraji's name. Brooks definitely had the heat pre-movie's release. I haven't seen anyone talking about Fantasia but good for her if true.

I think Greta Lee (not Fantasia) and Jodie Foster (not Julianne Moore) get in. Apart from that, your predictions seem right on to me.

[ScottC]

Actor - I think your picks are right (although I like all 4 of your curveballs - and any of those would be fun/appreciated).
Actress - Stone, Robbie, Gladstone, Portman, Lee.
Supporting Actor - Gosling, Downey, Ruffalo, Melton, Sessa (although maybe De Niro).
Supporting Actress - Randolph, Brooks, Blunt, Foster, Ferrera.
Ensemble - Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Killers of the Flower Moon, The Color Purple, The Holdovers.

[Mr Ripley79]

Always good to hear our hosts thoughts.

Actor Cooper,Giamatti,Murphy,Scott,Wright
Actress Mulligan Stone Bening Gladstone Robbie
Supp Actor De Niro Downey Jr Gosling Brown Dafoe.
Supp Actress Randolph Brookes Foster Ferrara McAdams

[Adam Keller]

I think your bolded titles in best cast are different from what you chose in your explanation? It sounds like you’re predicting American Fiction but barely… I’d be more confident with that one due to timing as well as the fact that the cast is consistently excellent. I think it definitely deserves to be included. Same with The Holdovers, but I have my doubts on that one. I’d probs predict…

Barbie
Oppenheimer
American Fiction
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon

…with The Holdovers in 6th (though it deserves The Color Purple’s slot here)

[Fabio Dantas Flappers]

First of all, why are people considering Sarsgaard supporting? For me, he's clearly leading.
I think he will surprise everyone till Oscar nominations morning, in one or another category.

This said,

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
* Peter Sarsgaard, Memory

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening, Nyad
Jessica Chastain, Memory
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
* Peter Sarsgaard, Memory

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jodie Foster, Nyad
Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers
Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

CAST

All of Us Strangers
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
May December
Oppenheimer

***

[Frank Zappa]

(Why) is Sarsgaard being campaigned in supporting?

[Tony L]

Love you Fabio for including Jamie Bell in your predictions. He did get in for Billy Elliott so it’s not that inconceivable that he would surprise. SAG may just love All of Us Strangers enough to get him in - which I would love to see as I adore Jamie Bell :)

[Michael R]

Everyone: I hope I am wrong but I doubt enough members of the SAG nominating committee saw AOUS for it to receive major nominations. Not to be cynical but that's what I am feeling.

[Michael R]

Nathaniel: could you please write an article about Maestro and the mixed reception the film has received? I love the film unconditionally yet so many people seem to hate it. I feel Cooper is wonderful as Lenny and Mulligan gives the performance of the year. I do not comprehend why people dislike Cooper so much. Jealousy? It reminds a bit of people's feelings towards Warren Beatty in the 70's and 80's.

[Mr Ripley79]

Michael R i'm with you on Meastro it's certainly one of the best films i've seen this year and i'll be happy if Cooper wins Best Actor which I have a feeling is going to Murphy but a his and hers best Actor/Actress win for the Maestro leads would be great.

[McGill]

Jamie Bell has been so consistently good for so many years. It would be lovely to see him get some recognition.

In Outstanding Stunt Ensemble, John Wick 4 is leading the way with the highest standards.

[Cláudio Alves]

Michael R & Mr Ripley79 -- I'd love to have a conversation with Nathaniel about MAESTRO, if nothing else, to defend a negative assertion of the film. Maybe we should revive the Split Decision series from last season. When I watched it at a press screening, I thought I'd be a dissenting voice amid a sea of love, so the way the tide turned when it hit Netflix took me by surprise.

Indeed, even if I dislike the picture greatly, some reactions have been disproportionally vicious, maybe even slightly weird. Even so, I resent being indirectly accused of jealousy and other pettiness for simply disliking a movie, primarily for structural and narrative and framing reasons. I'll say this, Cooper would be a good Best Actor victor. I just hope he doesn't get similarly honored for his work behind the camera as director and writer.

[Fabio Dantas Flappers]

Tony L. and McGill,

Bell is totally underrated. He and Michal Douglas gave the best performances in leading actor in 2000 - and both were snubbed.

Bell could receive another nom for "Rocketman", and was again snubbed. (Well, if Egerton was snubbed...).
The same for "Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool", where we's extraordinary with Bening.

I'd be incredibly happy if Bell, Mescal and Foy get noms - and I think it's possible.

Michael R,

Completely agree with you point about Cooper and Beatty.
The Academy never liked handsome and hot males, especially also directing. Costner was a great exception.

[jules]

Cooper is one of my favorite actors and I loved A Star is Born, so I was eagerly anticipating Maestro, so much so that I traveled 90 miles so I could see it in a theater. I was disappointed. It’s a messy film, and I couldn’t emotionally connect to it. I also think framing it as Felicia’s story is kind of a cheat - it led me to expect a film like Pollock, where it becomes apparent that the revered man would never have succeeded without his wife, and a completely dominant performance from Mulligan besides. Instead, I felt she was something of a stock long-suffering type.

That said, I still feel it is a good film - just not one of the best of this very fine movie year.

[whunk (he/him)]

I thought Maestro was really messy too, though it looked great and the acting was across-the-board superb. Especially Mulligan, who steals the show and really should be in the winner conversation more. Cooper's performance was technically difficult and engaging, but so stylized that I had trouble understanding a lot of what he was saying and following the storyline (if there was one?) as a result. Still, I'm fine with him winning based on the degree of difficulty alone.

[Antônio]

I dislike Maestro a lot and I’m not jealous of Cooper’s success (he should have won leading actor for A Star is Born). The film is messy, excessive cinematography, unconvincing make-up and Bernstein is not like Elvis Presley, whose public persona stands fine with all the narrative leaps we also saw in Luhrmann’s flick (with it, Maestro looks kinda niche for broad audiences). The only good thing is Mulligan’s performance, although Felicia was a very underdeveloped character, almost a supporting role. The rest of the cast completely wasted (feel sad for Matt Bomer and Maya Hawke).

[Cristal Connors]

I keep seeing you alluding to the fact that you did not enjoy Leo in killers of the flower moon at all and i'm curious why- I found it to be his best work since at least the departed. I personally think he's a shoo-in for the oscar nom, but what am I missing?

Also, Im a fan of Colman Domingo and I'm sure he's great in Rustin, but I've been quietly rooting against him this season because the movie looks soooo formulaic, I'm kind of dreading watching it. I prefer actors I admire to get recognition for great work in great films. I don't see him surviving all the way to oscar nomination morning but I guess we'll see

[Cláudio Alves]

Having just seen AMERICAN FICTION last night (thanks to the Spirit Awards screeners), I'm rooting for it in the ensemble races. I'm also sad that Brown is getting the supporting push for that film when Erika Alexander is so luminous in it.

[Lucky]

I'd be really pissed to see Andew Scott and Colman Domingo, two openly gay actors, miss to Bradley Cooper playing gay.

[Mr Ripley79]

I think Coopers performance is probably as divisive as Leo's and Fraser's last year.

I personally preferred Cooper who I though gave what I think is his 3rd best performance,if someone else doesn't that's up to them.

Di Caprio who I thought was okay can't overcome his miscasting,if someone disagrees fine but my opinion stays the same.

Domingo or the director never lets the Rustin character breathe and i'd prefer to see Teo Yoo or Franz Rogowski nominated instead of Domingo and Leo.

It's quite refreshing when people disagree,I may or may not know why they are fond of a perfromance I don't connect with or like but I enjoy the discussion and hearing why they love a performance

It happened a few years ago with Kidman in Ricardo's and Stewart in Spencer,I thought both was pretty awful others thought they was great,I didn't get it but I loved GaGa in House of Gucci who a lot didn't like.

[Lynn Lee]

Maestro has its limitations, but the acting certainly isn't one of them! I did like it a lot, and while I understand not loving it, I too don't get the outright hostility it's sparked.

I, too, would love to see a Split Decision from Nathaniel and Claudio!

[McGill]

It seems like people often blithely say, oh SAG Ensemble is just their version of Best Picture, but it’s not, is it?

Isn’t a more technical category of how actors are cast, interact with each other, are each given sufficient screen time to establish their character, coordinate with mutual focus and movement, and yet are distinct and not all playing the same character?

If a movie has a large cast, but the most interesting characters are sidelined so that the “movie stars” have more screen time and more (unnecessary) scenes, then the “ensemble” part isn’t really working.

Or if a movie has a large cast, even of the preferred type (white males), but the minor characters get lost in an indistinguishable mush, and other supporting characters just come onscreen, deliver a few cliches, and go off, then that “ensemble” isn’t really working either.

Or if there is a really brilliant movie, but is basically just 2 leads, then that movie can be considered not large enough to have an ensemble, and the performers are recognized in the Lead categories.

[Tony L]

Mr Ripley79 - I second your shout out for Teo Yoo - I just watched Past Lives and he was the best thing in it!! Would love to see some love thrown his way.

[Thomas Wegner]

I fully support these SAG predictions! It's true that SAG loves a good wild card, especially in those Ensemble categories. Thinking back to last year's "house of hazards" shock... chills!

[jerry carlson]

I predict that it will win the group races. Erika Alexander is so amazing in the film, so I'm even more disappointed that I predict that it will win the group races. Erika Alexander is so amazing in the film, so I'm even more disappointed that Brown is relegated to a supporting part.pico park is relegated to a supporting part.