An Early Look at the Best Director Oscar Race
Thursday, November 14, 2024 at 9:30PM by Eric Blume
Will THE BRUTALIST's "big bold vision" secure Brady Corbet his first Oscar nomination?
While The Film Experience writers gear up for their own Oscar predictions, I (probably like you) spend my time on several other industry sites to see what the current predictions are.
This is a super fun time of the year, because nobody is out with citations or nominations, so it's not yet thuddeningly predictable. Which makes it all the more surprising is that everywhere I read, almost ALL the forecasters seem to have the same five names listed as our nominees for the Best Director Oscar:
- Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
- Ridley Scott, Gladiator 2
- Edward Berger, Conclave
I can barely find a site predicting anyone else. On the fringes sit Mohammad Rasoulof, Coralie Fargeat, RaMell Ross, Pedro Almodóvar, and maybe Robert Eggers.
Things will probably change over the next month or two, but it's very strange to see this category fall into agreement so early.
Corbet seems to have the "big bold vision" energy behind him. Baker has his fans for his smart spin on genre and commanding unknown actors to ace performances. Audiard has the "nobody else would have made a movie that looks and feels like this" vote. Scott is the veteran they've never awarded. Berger is the up-and-comer, oh-sorry-we-skipped-you-for-All-Quiet guy.
These are four extraordinarily talented men, and they would make a pretty strong quintet all-in-all.
How are you feeling about this race? Who are the underdogs you're rooting for?
Reader Comments (5)
Maybe I'm letting my disappointment with GLADIATOR 2 cloud my mind, but I don't think Ridley Scott is anywhere close to that Best Director nomination. Indeed, this quintet feels a tad safe and predictable for what that branch has been doing lately. But again, I might be projecting my own critical opinion on the race.
I wonder if Warner Bros. will do anything to revive the DUNE flames. I assume it will get a lot of guild love, so that might do and bring Villeneuve back into the conversation. Also, a couple of pieces on big outlets reminding voters that he was snubbed for the first one could help.
Is that some shade in your last paragraph? I love it!
Within this consensus, it's pretty nuts that Baker, Audiard and Corbet are there. I love them, but I never thought they'd be in the Oscar convo. It'll be an arty Oscars.
I don't see it for Scott given the generally muted audience reception to Gladiator II. Especially not over Villeneuve, if someone is to get in for a sequel. I know he got snubbed for Part One, but this is a more open year.
Currently, I'd guess Baker is taking it for Anora. My predictions below:
1. Baker - Anora
2. Corbet - The Brutalist
3. Audiard - Emilia Perez
4. Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
5. Ross - Nickel Boys
6. Berger - Conclave
7. Fargeat - The Substance
8. Almodovar - The Room Next Door
9. Mangold - A Complete Unknown
10. Rasolouf - The Seed of the Sacred Fig
In my head at this early stage, Pedro Almodovar gets the nomination instead of Scott. Then the Academy voters mistakenly rationalise that directing in a language other than his first is a major achievement, and therefore give him the Oscar. (For the record, I think he deserves it, as what he has done with TRND is magnificent, but just not for directing in English.)
Today, I think The Nominees fir Best Director are...
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door