With the PGA win Nomadland is probably locked up. But what to make of Best Documentary Feature?

by Nathaniel R

If Nomadland was going to show any weakness before Oscar night, now just 31 days away, it would probably have been at the Producers Guild Awards which were held last night. Sorry to its rivals (though not really because we love Nomadland) there appears to be no vulnerable spots in its golden armor. Or maybe the Producers Guild just wasn't feeling frisky about throwing curveballs this year since with the exception of the Best Documentary (which still feels wide open in terms of the Oscar win) ALL of their prizes went to frontrunners in their Oscar categories or TV shows that have already cleaned up at other awards shows or even previously at the PGA...

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PGA Nominations: Wa Wa Wee Wa! "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" made the list.

The Producers Guild of America has spoken and has named these ten pictures as nominees for its top category.

Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

• Borat Subsequent Moviefilm Producers: Sacha Baron Cohen, Monica Levinson, Anthony Hines
• Judas and the Black Messiah Producers: Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Producers: Denzel Washington, Todd Black
• Mank Producers: Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski
• Minari Producer: Christina Oh
• Nomadland Producers: Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao
• One Night In Miami… Producers: Jess Wu Calder & Keith Calder, Jody Klein
• Promising Young Woman Producers: Josey McNamara, Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell
• Sound Of Metal Producers: Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 Producers: Marc Platt, Stuart Besser

This is great news for Judas and the Black Messiah as a late breaking contender as well as Sound of Metal which has had a lot of buzz for Riz Ahmed but less so for other awards categories.  The PGA choices are a tough break for News of the World and The Father. But all is not lost for the latter two hopefuls as Oscar does often change things up a bit. Stats and more PGA nominations after the jump...

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Producers Guild goes with Oscar's expected top ten... no box office deviations this year.

The Producers Guild have announced their nominations for the film and television year. Unlike in some previous years they've ignored unexpected non-prestige-ready blockbusters this time, focusing exclusively on films expecting to do well on Oscar nomination morning.

Little Women isn't down for the count yet in the Best Picture raceOutstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

• 1917 Producers: Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne‐Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall
• Ford v Ferrari Producers: Peter Chernin & Jenno Topping, James Mangold
• The Irishman Producers: Jane Rosenthal & Robert De Niro, Emma Tillinger Koskoff & Martin Scorsese
• Jojo Rabbit Producers: Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi
• Joker Producers: Todd Phillips & Bradley Cooper, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
• Knives Out Producers: Rian Johnson, Ram Bergman
• Little Women Producer: Amy Pascal
• Marriage Story Producers: Noah Baumbach, David Heyman
• Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood Producers: David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino
• Parasite Producers: Kwak Sin Ae, Bong Joon Ho

In short, it's Best Picture predictions again. I know people have issues with the MCU but since this award is for producers, it seems strange to shun the gargantuan producing effort that worked so hard for 12 years to culminate in Avengers Endgame. Thinking it should have been here. Also strange to ignore the in-no-way-a-sure-thing success of The Farewell and Hustlers which just as easily could have been a indies that everyone ignored but for their success in execution and delivery. But then, those films are about women and most of the mainstream awards bodies prefer stories about men (sigh)

But all is not lost for films that didn't make this list and all is not secure for films that did make this list. Here's a trivia list for you...

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Green Book wins the PGA. Is Oscar next?

by Nathaniel R

Peter Farrelly accepting the Outstanding Producer for Theatrical Motion Pictures award for "Green Book"

The weekend before the Oscar nominations, Green Book gets another feather in its divisive cap. It took the top PGA prize last night. It was nominated against Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, A Quiet Place, Roma, A Star is Born, and Vice... most but not all of which will transfer to Oscar Best Picture nominations if past statistics hold. In the nine years of the modern Best Picture era (by which we mean 2009 and onward when the field expanded) only three movies have won the PGA that did not repeat at the Oscars: Gravity (2013), The Big Short  (2015), and La La Land  (2016). But it's really only two since Gravity tied at the PGA with 12 Years a Slave (the latter of which did not have to share the Oscar for Best Picture). This year's race will give us an even ten years of statistics in this new era. So by the end of the season, future PGA winners will feel like they have either a 70% or an 80% of winning the Oscar. Either way it's something to worry about if you don't like Green Book, and something to cheer for, if you do...

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Producers Guild Nominations

by Nathaniel R

The PGA have announced their nominations for 2018. True to form they've leaned into big hits and crowd pleasers rather than pure critical acclaim. It's important to note straightaway that in the modern era of the expanded Best Picture list the PGA list has never exactly matched the Oscar list though it has ONCE included all the nominees (plus an additional film since PGA has 10 where Oscar is on a 5-10 system that's so far only delivered 8 or 9 nominees each year). Last year the two lists were markedly different, though, with 4 of the 10 titles dropping off when the Oscar list was announced, and two different titles popping up in their place.

After the jump all of the PGA nominees this year (in multiple film and television categories) and to show you how important box office success is to the PGA, the number in parenthesis is where that film ranks (currently) on the list of 2018 box office grosses. We'll also discuss what this all means in terms of what could happen with Oscar...

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