Producers Guild goes with Oscar's expected top ten... no box office deviations this year.

The Producers Guild have announced their nominations for the film and television year. Unlike in some previous years they've ignored unexpected non-prestige-ready blockbusters this time, focusing exclusively on films expecting to do well on Oscar nomination morning.

Little Women isn't down for the count yet in the Best Picture raceOutstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

• 1917 Producers: Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne‐Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall
• Ford v Ferrari Producers: Peter Chernin & Jenno Topping, James Mangold
• The Irishman Producers: Jane Rosenthal & Robert De Niro, Emma Tillinger Koskoff & Martin Scorsese
• Jojo Rabbit Producers: Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi
• Joker Producers: Todd Phillips & Bradley Cooper, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
• Knives Out Producers: Rian Johnson, Ram Bergman
• Little Women Producer: Amy Pascal
• Marriage Story Producers: Noah Baumbach, David Heyman
• Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood Producers: David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino
• Parasite Producers: Kwak Sin Ae, Bong Joon Ho

In short, it's Best Picture predictions again. I know people have issues with the MCU but since this award is for producers, it seems strange to shun the gargantuan producing effort that worked so hard for 12 years to culminate in Avengers Endgame. Thinking it should have been here. Also strange to ignore the in-no-way-a-sure-thing success of The Farewell and Hustlers which just as easily could have been a indies that everyone ignored but for their success in execution and delivery. But then, those films are about women and most of the mainstream awards bodies prefer stories about men (sigh)

But all is not lost for films that didn't make this list and all is not secure for films that did make this list. Here's a trivia list for you...

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Green Book wins the PGA. Is Oscar next?

by Nathaniel R

Peter Farrelly accepting the Outstanding Producer for Theatrical Motion Pictures award for "Green Book"

The weekend before the Oscar nominations, Green Book gets another feather in its divisive cap. It took the top PGA prize last night. It was nominated against Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, A Quiet Place, Roma, A Star is Born, and Vice... most but not all of which will transfer to Oscar Best Picture nominations if past statistics hold. In the nine years of the modern Best Picture era (by which we mean 2009 and onward when the field expanded) only three movies have won the PGA that did not repeat at the Oscars: Gravity (2013), The Big Short  (2015), and La La Land  (2016). But it's really only two since Gravity tied at the PGA with 12 Years a Slave (the latter of which did not have to share the Oscar for Best Picture). This year's race will give us an even ten years of statistics in this new era. So by the end of the season, future PGA winners will feel like they have either a 70% or an 80% of winning the Oscar. Either way it's something to worry about if you don't like Green Book, and something to cheer for, if you do...

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Producers Guild Nominations

by Nathaniel R

The PGA have announced their nominations for 2018. True to form they've leaned into big hits and crowd pleasers rather than pure critical acclaim. It's important to note straightaway that in the modern era of the expanded Best Picture list the PGA list has never exactly matched the Oscar list though it has ONCE included all the nominees (plus an additional film since PGA has 10 where Oscar is on a 5-10 system that's so far only delivered 8 or 9 nominees each year). Last year the two lists were markedly different, though, with 4 of the 10 titles dropping off when the Oscar list was announced, and two different titles popping up in their place.

After the jump all of the PGA nominees this year (in multiple film and television categories) and to show you how important box office success is to the PGA, the number in parenthesis is where that film ranks (currently) on the list of 2018 box office grosses. We'll also discuss what this all means in terms of what could happen with Oscar...

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Producer's Guild Nominations: Wonder Woman is this year's Deadpool

by Nathaniel R

The Producer's Guild, by "virtue" of the fact that they have more nominees than Oscar each year, often get fairly close to "predicting" the Best Picture list. This year they've chosen 11 titles. Recency bias surely helped give Molly's Game a winning hand and the PGA's love of the blockbuster delivered for Wonder Woman which is a good call here since it did help define the year and superhero movies are very much producer events. Last year Deadpool was nominated at the PGA and was the only film to drop off on Oscar nominaiton morning. The other 9 pictures selected are all then looking strong as Best Picture possibilities for the Oscar nominations on January 23rd. Nominations and more commentary after the jump...

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Save the Date(s) ~ Awards Season Calendar

The Awards Happy months begin! Your guide to the remaining important calendar dates of the year. Televised ceremonies, crucial influencer nominations, and all actual Oscar-related events are in bold. 

NOVEMBER

2 Critics’ Choice Documentary Awards

3 Thor Ragnarok, Lady Bird, and Last Flag Flying open

5 European Film Award Nominations
5 The Film Experience's "Supporting Actress Smackdown" of 1944

10 Three Billboards, Murder on the Orient Express, and Thelma (Norway's Oscar submission)

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