Predix: Supporting Actor and The Matter of Young Leads

Jim Broadbent as Dennis ThatcherWhen it comes to blindfolded Oscar predictions, almost nothing beats the supporting categories. I have this vague fantasy of time travel and returning to propose all 10 supporting acting nominees correctly one April to reams of laughter from the internet. They can be so hard to see coming for so many reasons including: adaptations sometimes lean on different characters than the novels or plays that birthed them, ensembles are tricky because you don't know who will win "best in show" reviews, one lead films are tricky because the huge role at the center (The Iron Lady, J. Edgar) sometimes end up sucking up all the oxygen and other times have coattails. Then there's the small matter of Oscar being more diverse aesthetically when it comes to supporting work. Here is where comedy, horror, sci-fi, fantasy  and even comic book movies (Dick Tracy, The Dark Knight) can show up even though they rarely if ever get play in lead categories.

Kenneth Branagh? Christoph Waltz? Philip Seymour Hoffman x 2? Viggo Mortensen x 2? Armie Hammer or Josh Lucas? Ben Kingsley? Christopher Plummer? Jim Broadbent -- his Iron Lady performance already has tongues (and fingers) wagging -- Richard E Grant or Anthony Head? Nick Nolte? Brad Pitt? You can drive yourself crazy thinking about all the possibilities. Maybe you have?

The first predictions for 2011

NEW TOPIC: This is as good a year as any, I assume, to prove my frequent statements about Oscar's double standards with gender. There are at least three very high profile films with young male leads this year: HUGO CABRET (Asa Butterfield is 14 years old), WAR HORSE (Jeremy Irvine is ??? years old), and SUPER 8 (Joel Courtney is ??? years old).

Asa Butterfield, Jeremy Irvine and Joel Courtney

If you've ever doubted my assertion about this double standard -- some people have objected to the statements -- watch how these performances are treated this year while keeping in mind how Hailee Steinfeld's work was greeted in True Grit as if the heavens or the red sea had parted. The media, critics and Oscar voters are quick to shove aside experience and accomplishment in women when a "fresh player" enters but not so with male actors. My prediction: at least one of these three does work on par or better than Hailee's and doesn't get anything like her traction. Watch and see.

Obviously there are exceptions, as there are to every rule: There was no denying Haley Joel Osment's gift in The Sixth Sense (1999) although he did get demoted to Supporting and lost to somebody who already had an Oscar, and Justin Henry won a nomination at 8 (!) for Kramer Vs. Kramer. In both cases the films were absolute sensations at the box office. Dramas no longer explode with audiences like Kramer vs. Kramer did but in today's dollars its box office haul was truly insane. We're talking a domestic haul closer to the latest Harry Potter than a True Grit or King's Speech. In other words, even Oscar doesn't ignore the zeitgeist.

Best Actors (Lead and Supporting), My Ballot

As is my annual perogative I went back and forth between lead and supporting designations on several of those "co-lead" roles until I tied myself in knots and could not come undone. I'm more strict about these things than most so just deal. Every year people give me a hard time about it. But for every clear cut case of category fraud (Hailee Steinfeld is a lead in True Grit. Duh!) there are areas so gray one can't make out blacks or whites (I'm still not sure what to make of Lesley Manville in Another Year) and one just has to call it like one sees it and be okay with how other people are calling it too. No biggie. So for what it's worth I consider the couplings of Firth & Rush (The King's Speech) and Wahlberg & Bale (The Fighter) to be power duets within films specifically about their relationship with one another - therefore leads just like Scarlett & Rhett in Gone With the Wind only without the sex and with more of a damn given.

Lead Actor
I regret to inform that I have not seen Javier Bardem's much lauded performance in Biutiful. I tried! (Screener didn't work. Didn't realize that til after one week qualifier had passed, etcetera) Do I feel bad about thus dissing him? Yes and No. I love Bardem but it's no secret that I disdain the "one week qualifier" Oscar tactic and part of me -- a small petty part but a part nonetheless -- wishes even the worthiest of performances and films would be ignored every year IF attempting this until the studios and/or the Academy put a kabosh on this absurd practice which is bad for moviegoers and bad for dramatic films in general, as it teaches audiences to shun them or not care a whit about them unless or until they are Oscar-stamped. That's no way to build or keep an audience for adult entertainment. After all, not every film can be Oscar nominated.

So for my best actor list I had to choose between a sweaty former boxer, a sweaty federal agent, a sweaty rock climber (what's going on here) and several other men who were sweating out really difficult situations like an illiterate inmate, an innovator beset by lawsuits, a king on the verge of war, a man who'd just lost a child and so on.

Supporting Actor
So many wonderful performances and I'm still debating a couple of also rans with myself. Self: "He was better." Also Self: "No, you're crazy. Him." But in the end I'm happy with the settled ballot which includes a chill sperm donor, a hardened criminal, two men with mysterious motives with their lead actress, and one man, Andrew Garfield who I would have nominated twice over if I could have. Subtract The Social Network from the 2010 calendar and he'd still be a Film Bitch Award nominee for Never Let Me Go... (a film I didn't much care for overall).

READ MY BALLOT

Who is on yours?

Husbands and Wives

Michael here from Serious Film. I’ve been posting analysis of all the Oscar categories one at a time so when the Supporting Actress category came up I naturally had to compose variations on the phrase "supportive girlfriend/wife" (Amy Adams and Helena Bonham-Carter) so as not to get repetitive.

Supportive Gals = Oscar Traction

You don't have to break out any such phrase for the guys. Just how lopsided is this situation? Do the fellas ever get nominated for staying home and cheering on the ladies?

I looked up some stats, and long story short, I didn’t think it would be that lopsided. Going back over the last twenty years there was only one, count em one, nomination for the traditional supportive husband/boyfriend role, Jim Broadbent for Iris. (He won.) If you want to stretch you can push it up to three by including John C. Reilly’s doofus husband in Chicago and Christopher Plummer’s Tolstoy in The Last Station, but if you ask me those don’t fit the type. After that…nothing. Just villains and character actor parts as far as the eye can see. Of course a few of the others play husbands but their wives have equal or lesser roles (Think Cuba Gooding Jr. in Jerry Maguire)

As for the ladies I stopped counting in the mid-twenties. The supporting actress category, as should come as zero surprise, is overflowing wives and girlfriends, including the entire 2004 line up, if you count Portman in Closer. They matched the guys’ total of three last year alone with the girlfriend parts played by Gyllenhaal, Farmiga, and Cruz. Throw in mothers and you’ve got the whole category covered.

Supportive Guys ≠ Oscar Traction

I’ll leave it to you to draw conclusions about the diversity of female roles in Hollywood but one conclusion I can say for sure: If you’re a guy looking to win an Oscar avoid playing the husband.

P.S. Remember Nathaniel's Illustrated Chart of Supporting Actor 'Types'? (click to embiggen)