Virgin Nominees
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 at 8:00AM 
It took Gary Oldman *forever* to get an Oscar nomination. Do you think he'll return for a second?Five years ago I did a study of Oscar's acting categories and multiple vs. singular honors. I discovered that 64% of Oscar nominees never return for a second nomination.
That year I polled readers who voted Transamerica's Felicity Huffman, Good Night and Good Luck's David Straithairn, Crash's Matt Dillon and (OOPS) Junebug's Amy Adams least likely to return. Readers had the most confidence in return engagements for (OOPS) Cinderella Man's Paul Giamatti... but weird that he hasn't been back, right?, Syriana's Clooney, Capote's Phillip Seymour Hoffman and (OOPS) Hustle & Flow's Terrence Howard! So some of y'all got it pretty right in the polling and also way wrong which just goes to show you that you never know!
The Streeps and Winslets are a true rarity. Even major movie stars across the decades have had to settle for one. And sometimes people just get snubbed forever.
P.S. Have your say in the comments: why'd you vote the way you voted?
New Oscar Post - Snubs That Hurt
Reader Comments (65)
In this poll, I choose the usual suspsects: Franco, Ruffalo and Chastain. But truthfully Thomas said, "no one knows anything".
In these years (1997-2009), these people were considerated -in more or less intensity- as "one hit wonder" by Oscars:
-Hilary Swank, Samantha Morton, Catherine Keener, Janet McTeer (1999)
-Javier Bardem, Marcia Gay Harden (2000)
-Djimon Hounsou (2003)
-Amy Adams, Michelle Williams (2005)
-Viola Davis, Melissa Leo (2008)
-Jeremy Renner, Christopher Plummer (2009)
All of them returned against all odds and even in some cases -Bardem, Swank y Leo- they won. In the opposite side, people predicted them as returning nominees:
-Helen Hunt (1997)
-Gwyneth Paltrow (1998)
-Chloë Sevigny (1999)
-Jennifer Connelly (2001)
-Adrien Brody, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Diane Lane (2002)
-Naomi Watts (2003)
-Jake Gyllenhaal, Paul Giamatti, Terrence Howard (2005)
-Ryan Gosling (2006)
-Ellen Page, Viggo Mortensen, Marion Cotillard (2007)
-Anne Hathaway (2008)
For these list, there still exists the possibility than Cotillard, Gosling, Mortensen and Hathaway return as nominees in the coming years -Gosling was close in 2007 and 2010 and if Harvey didn't messed up, Cotillard could easily returned in 2009-
Sorry for the second post. For these list, I believe these actors could surprise in the next years:
*John Hawkes:
Right now, he's making buzz in Sundance with "The Surrogate"
*Mark Ruffalo:
"The Normal Heart"
*Jean Dujardin:
The remake of Claude Berri's "One Wild Moment" with Vincent Cassel
*Bérénice Bejo:
"Populaire" with Romain Duris
"A Bonheur des Ogres" with Raphael Personnaz and Emir Kusturica
*Jessica Chastain:
"The Wettest County" with Tom Hardy
the film about Osama Bin Laden with Chris Pratt and Edgar Ramirez
*Jennifer Lawrence:
"The Silver Lining Book" from David O. Russell
*Christian Bale:
"Lawless" with Ryan Gosling, Rooney Mara and Cate Blanchett
*Hailee Steinfeld:
Julian Fellowes' "Romeo and Juliet"
And my favorite:
*Marion Cotillard:
"Low Life" with Joaquin Phoenix and Jeremy Renner
"Blood Ties" writted by her hubby Guillaume Canet and starred with Mark Wahlberg
"Rust and Bone" from Jacques Audiard
the French collaboration between Asghar Farhar and Yasmina Reza and starred with Tahar Rahim
I voted 1. Jessica Chastain, because she will keep making a gazillion movies for a while. 2. Jennifer Lawrence because the Hunger Games series and maybe further X-Men movies will make her star bigger and bigger, she will alternate between blockbusters and "serious movies", and will get nominated for one of the latter come 2015 or later. 3. James Franco because I think he's versatile and unpredictable will get a nod probably for something totally surprising, or a supporting villain role maybe... Bale or Oldman seem possible too, but I think Bale seems too controversial that they suddenly completely embrace him, and if they would start to nominate Gary every after year after ignoring him so long that would feel a little pathetic to me, plus I'm not too sure he will get so many nominable roles
Jonah Hill is not on the list because Nathaniel didn't want anyone to get 0%.
Why am I just now realizing that Ryan Gosling has only been nominated once? I've always thought he had two already.
I went with:
Bale, who I can see becoming a true movie star (if he isn't already) and Oscar fix when he's older. He has always taken interesting projects and, who know, he might even get nominated for his next role in that Noah's Ark movie Aronofsky is directing.
Lawrence. She could follow a more commercial route but I think she will be back eventually. Even if it is in a Kim Basinger in LA Confidential type of role. From interviews she seems really smart, focused and serious about her craft so I doubt we'll see her in fluffy romantic comedies.
Franco: He's poised to return sometimes. He's got everything going on for him except, maybe, the willingness to be a star. But I think he'll change the hipster artist attitude he has now and be back.
I have no idea why I didn't vote for Chastain. I think maybe we're overestimating her chances because she's very big right now and it's not likely she'll have a year like 2011 ever again (who could?).
Just realized that Saoirse Ronan was left of your list, Nathaniel. For shame! Personally, of all the pretty young things currently working - the Fanning sisters, Abigail Breslin, Chloe Morentz, Hailee Steinfeld ...etc, Ronan strikes me as the front runner for being nominated in her adulthood.
Ronan's first nomination wasn't this or last year.
I didn't vote for her, but am I the only one who feels that Jennifer Lawrence could get awards traction for the Hunger Games?
Fassbender- wasn't nominated but I'm writing him in!
@SC,
Yup, that is correct. I quickly read the article and missed the bit about nominations being either in this or last year.
Thanks for the clarification.
i voted Bale,Chastain and Oldman(every one yet says why Bale and Chastain ) but i hesitated between Oldman,Franco and Hawkes(for the same reasons that every one yet said)
I wonder if Mara will be nominated again if only for one the the "Dragon Tattoo" sequels. Maybe by the 3rd movie they'll want to give it to her for the whole series, the way the 3rd "Lord ot the Rings" finally won Best Picture.
Chastain is headlining a Princess Diana biopic in 2013, so she could win Lead Actress then.
Chastain offcourse, with several works in line with great directors.
Bale would become like PSHoffman. A perennial nominee...
franco. well we'll see.