Golden Globes: Got Any Comedy/Musical Predictions?
Wednesday, October 23, 2013 at 8:30PM 
a comedy?Despite bold statements every year about who is campaigning in which Golden Globe category, the news is usually fluid so don't get too attached to anything you hear. Awards strategists are free to change their mind. As it stands now, August: Osage County and Before Midnight are planning Comedy campaigns and Blue Jasmine is aiming for drama. Curious, right? Dark laughs are flexible, don'cha know, and they can find traction in either category. We here at The Film Experience have long mourned the death of the Comedy or Musical category in the way we also mourn the death of the Supporting Oscar categories in that they too rarely serve their original purposes: which was to honor achievements that would otherwise be overlooked in the annual awards-focus on prestige drama and movie stars, respectively. It says a lot about the Comedy Acting categories for example that you can only make room for actual comedic triumphs IF a prestige drama with a few laughs or songs opts out.
BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
The two most likely to succeed players IF they're deemed comedies though some feel they won't be are Emma Thompson and Dame Judi Dench for Saving Mr Banks and Philomena respectively. Regardless, I think you can ink in Julia Louis Dreyfus for Enough Said, the year's most acclaimed romcom. If August's current campaign plans hold, you might see Julia Roberts and Meryl Streep taking up the entire rest of the category for their bitter duel! Why Julia? Well, supporting campaigns sometimes get promoted in this category if its a movie star who is actually a lead (see Catherine Zeta Jones nom for Chicago) and nobody thinks of megawatt Julia as a supporting player. But if you account for all five of those women (which you might not need to given rumored drama campaigns for Philomena & Saving Mr Banks -- which are the type of properties that could easily swing either way) there's no room left! Speaking of category confusion... if it's not Julia, the Globes could go with another actress they've been known to love with abandon. Remember that weirdass nomination for Scarlett Johansson for A Love Song For Bobby Long in 2004? (It's okay. nobody else does either) She could surprise here given that revelatory comic sparkle in Don Jon. And that would not be an unworthy call.
Potential Spoilers: If they're willing to lean pure comedy they've got a ready made nominee set in Sandra Bullock & Melissa McCarthy from The Heat but it's tough to say which of those two might win favor since the HFPA often ignores pure laffers when sorta-funny dramas are around and votes could easily split anyway. McCarthy has the reviews and that new stardom (with two big hits in 2013) but Bullock has the Gravity and is arguably the biggest star of all at this moment. Plus, you know how they love double dipping! Greta Gerwig's Frances Ha or Julie Delpy's Before Midnight would be a really smart worthy choices but neither seem like the type of actor that the magpie-like HFPA, always looking for super-shiney-famous, would lock right up for a nomination. Paulina Garcia in Gloria, should the film win a qualifying run, would be another brilliant choice but it seems so unlikely given all of the beloved big names in the mix.
Am I missing any possibilities?
BEST ACTOR, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
There might be no beating Bruce Dern for Nebraska unless the Golden Globes are itching for a major movie star to reward instead of someone who has paid his dues. The only other sure thing is, I'm guessing, Oscar Isaac in Inside Llewyn Davis since he covers the "musical" part and the film, if not Isaac, is really funny at times -- it was directed by the Joel and Ethan Coen after all. Will Her end be declared a comedy despite its melancholy? If so then Joaquin Phoenix for sure.
But who else? Will Will Forte join Dern for a double Nebraska nod with the dearth of possibilities or might James Gandolfini win posthumous favor for Enough Said? Will they take Ethan Hawke for Before Midnight? There's also Joseph Gordon Levitt in Don Jon, Ben Stiller in The Secret Life of Walter Mitty? Will Ferrell in Anchorman 2? Robert Downey Jr in Iron Man 3 or Johnny Depp in The Lone Ranger (hey they'll nominate mega-stars for anything)
THE FILMS?
Will they fill up the film category with only potential Oscar BPs: August: Osage County, Nebraska, or the either/or category types like Her, Before Midnight, Philomena and Saving Mr Banks. Or will they throw some thankyoufortheLOLs and songs honors to more straightforward comedies Anchorman 2, The Heat, Don Jon, This is the End, or At World's End and the two musicals Inside Llewyn Davis & Black Nativity. You never know how they'll swing in this category because they also might opt for charmers like Frances Ha (shut up I can dream), Enough Said, About Time or The Way Way Back.
Alternately they could always pull a Tourist like head-scratchers and go with something unacceptable (categorically) or critically planned like Oz the Great and Powerful, Red 2, The Family or The Lone Ranger!
What does your crystal ball tell you?
Reader Comments (35)
I'm just curious as to who are the "Salmon Fishing" of this year, a.k.a. the one that nobody remembers or nobody thought is a comedy but out of nowhere it gets a lot of love.
Why is Gold Derby telling us oscar-fan-boys that both Philomena & Banks
are going Drama at the Globes?
Michelle Pfeiffer for The Family. I would love to see that.
The BEFORE MIDNIGHT thing is just so silly. Ugh.
I'm still hunching on THIS IS THE END getting in because a) it was good, and b) they'd love to get that cast at the show. Also potentially THE WAY WAY BACK since that, too, had a big cast and was actually very good.
Dreyfus and Gandolfini sorta feel like Hoffman and Thompson for that romcom they had a few years back. They got nominated, the film did not.
And, as I told Nathaniel last night, I still suspect Chris O'Dowd to get into best actor comedy/music for THE SAPPHIRES.
Jeez... IF, and it's a big if, Streep/Roberts, Dench and Thompson all went comedy, who would be filling out those last drama spots?
Yeah I could see The Sapphires being the Salmon Fishing of the year. I also think a double nomination for Sandra seems rather likely. Was The Bling Ring a comedy? Emma Watson was funny but it was a smaller role. I would love Frances Ha to be Greta's awards breakthrough!
Um...is Her not being campaigned as a comedy? Because I think that could easily get in for Picture and Actor at the Globes if it's going comedy.
Do you think Much Ado has any hope?
That romcom? Ouch! (Hahahahahahaha)
I enjoyed "Last chance Harvey" so much. I don't care if people think it's cliché, a bastard child of "Father of the bride" (just because of a single scene, Internet people?) and my beloved "Harold and Maude" (I don't understand this comparison AT ALL, Internet people). The chemistry between Hoffman and Thompson is great. When *SPOILER* he's having a heart attack and she's waiting for him... </3 At least everything was good at the end... phew... *END OF SPOILER*
I hope the movie becomes a cult classic in a near future.
I think it's great there is so many good options (according to reviewers... I'll keep my expectations low anyway) and not too much fillers for these categories (frauds aside). Even though I can't comment much on what should/I think will be nominated because I haven't seen a single new movie this year (living in Argentina and having less and less money every year effing sucks). Even though I really need to know what Bruce Dern and June Squibband do in "Nebraska", Meryl and Julia in "A:OC", Delpy and Hawke in "B. Midnight" (again, no money... :S) and what's the latest of the Cohen.
I remember a comment here somewhere, someone said something like "actors don't matter, the movie matters". This person doesn't know how many times I've been disappointed by a movie but so impressed by the performances, that I considered that money well spent and the time worth of it. It's not the same experience for everybody...
Me34,
What does </3 signify????
That's a broken heart... LOL... it's just doesn't translate well with this font.
Me34,
What does :S mean?
I would not be stunned if they nominated Jennifer Aniston for We're The Millers. A star in a funny, successful film.
I also think The Sapphires is a possibility. There are a number of Australian voters in the HFPA plus it is a musical and there is usually one in the nominations.
I loved loved loved JLD in Enough Said. I thought she was brilliant and would love an Oscar nod for her but the Globe nod must happen, and will. Can't wait to see Emma in SMB
@Mike In Canada--That's my dream scenario. Get rid of all the Oscar bait and free up a couple spaces in Drama Actress for the Globes to do their Globesy thing and nominate someone ridiculous and fun. Could be awesome (Adele Exarchopoulos!) or annoying (Kate Winslet) or INSANE (Naomi Watts?) but no matter what, it would be more fun than everyone politely splitting into their proper places.
Also this might sound crazy, but I would put money on Johnny Depp getting nominated in Comedy Actor for The Lone Ranger. #NeverForgetTheTourist
I feel like, JD is getting a nom for best actor in comedy. He actually deserves it tbh.
I kind of have a feeling that Her will dominate here, as in, I think it's winning Picture and Actor.
Maybe it's wishful but I could really see Joseph Gordon Levitt surprising with a win this year.
I have the old-fashioned wish to see some musicals in the Musical/Comedy category.
In the musical The Sapphires, Chris O'Dowd, certainly, but also Debra Mailman.
In the musical Black Nativity, it seems (unseen) that the outstanding actors are in supporting parts (eg. Angela Bassett), but the surprise could be a nom for teenage lead, Jacob Lattimore.
I too would like to see Before Midnight get more recognition. And Frances Ha.
I'd be nice to see Lake Bell get some acknowledgement in the "women in comedy" stakes. She wrote, directed, and starred in "In A World", and generously gave the supporting players a chance to also shine.
And if the Hollywood Foreign Press decides to go foreign, there's always Juliette Binoche in Words and Pictures, or Trine Dyrholm in Love Is All You Need.
And is American Hustle going to be classed as a dark comedy? Then maybe Amy Adams would be in this category.
this is such a mess because of all the category placements... i mean, how on earth is before midnight a comedy?
Oh, and I know a lot of people probably think Blue Jasmine going drama means it won't get in for Picture, but keep in mind that they're giving Woody Allen the Cecil B. DeMille Award this year, and it would be completely unsurprising to me if Blue Jasmine got in for Picture, Director, Actress, and Screenplay, even as a drama.
Okay, don't shoot me, but is there any possibility that "Instructions Not Included" and Eugenio Derbez could be in the mix? I'm not saying it's a good movie, although it wasn't that bad (and since when did the GGs run on good movies?).
But the GGs are kind of starf**kers, and he's a star (at least in Mexico). The show prides itself on being global. And it would allow them to reach a new audience, and to honor a movie that unexpectedly did really well at the American box office. It wouldn't shock if it was in the mix, right?
TB, Depp won't get nommed, and it's not because TLR is a piece of junk. It's because of his dubious casting as a Native American. Blech.
I'm with TB. I would not bet against a nod for Johnny Depp for The Lone Ranger. After The Tourist, all bets are unequivocally off where Depp and the HFPA are concerned.
Putting Blanchett into drama instead of comedy seems like a good move from a strategy standpoint and an accuracy of categorization standpoint. Streep won that Comedy/Musical Golden Globe the day she was cast in August: Osage County. It's a rare case where the drama category is looking (at this very early stage) to be less stacked than the drama category.
I have to say that my feelings about Blanchett being declared a lock for a win at this point are very akin to my hesitation when the same declarations were being made about Bening in 2010 right around this time. My resistance to the "lock-talk" has nothing to do with quality of performance, in either case. Blanchett's performance (and Bening's for that matter in 2010) would make handsome Best Actress winners in any year. It just doesn't feel like they're going to be the ones that people are excited about at the end of the year. I'd put Julie Christie (2007)in that category too. All performances I more or less liked, but the frontrunner/lock never passed mustard to me, for various reasons...genre bias, modest films, screentime, etc, etc, etc. And in the case of Christie and Bening, those performances ended up losing to flashier, grabbier turns by younger actresses. I can only call Blanchett a lock in the sense that she feels like the only performance we've seen thus far that can win. To me, it's a placeholder until something else comes along and Amy Adams seems perfectly positioned for that, if she's even halfway decent (read: baity) in American Hustle and that film becomes a force to be reckoned with in Best Picture. I don't like to make sight-unseen predictions, so I won't say that I think Adams is definitely going to win, but in terms of intuition, it feels more right than Cate Blanchett winning for this performance. Regardless of who else wins (and I'd be happy to be wrong if Blanchett does indeed pull it off), I'd actually be willing to bet money that Blanchett doesn't win.
Okay: I'm guessing that at the end of the deliberation on the "questionables", Dench, Streep and Roberts don't actually wind up here, due to that leading to a far weaker looking Drama category. (If Dench and Streep don't go in Drama, Exarchopolous and either Winslet or Brie Larson (depending on how star happy they feel, so probably the former) DEFINITELY take those slots, something the HFPA is probably going to tell the campaigners will make them look like a "perverted joke of an organization in the eyes of the mainstream." Their comedy category can look however they want (see also: The 2010 disaster, where they make every mistake they could possibly make in the pursuit of starbleeping), but they're CERTAINLY going to do what they can to block perversion and not starbleeping from the drama category, aka "The One the Mainstream 'Really' Cares About, no matter how much they TRY to say they care for both.")
Guesses for Actress:
Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, Enough Said
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha (like I said, HFPA will probably insist to the Weinstein's to put Streep and Dench in Drama to block Exarchopolous and Larson, freeing Gerwig for a slot here.)
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Deborah Mailman, The Sapphires (if only to get some MUSIC up in both acting categories (Oscar Isaac is the main reason I'm sceptical of Chris O'Dowd))
Guesses for Actor:
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis (as Bruce Dern just got knocked by the Gotham's but he managed a slot, I'm thinking he's the probable winner, plus he's the token music slot)
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Joaquin Phoenix, Her (they're going to put him here to ensure visibility, even if it might not be the most "appropriate" choice)
Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
As for slot 5? Unless Wolf of Wall Street is actually hitting for this Christmas, I'd place the serious contenders for the fifth slot as tightly between Gandolfini (post humous honours), JGL (semi-shocking repeated nominee), Pegg (the rare comedic talent who wants to show you he can act in work that makes you laugh out loud) and Hawke (long running series and minor star kissing up). Depp and Ferrell are definitely out (Box Office Bomb, Sense of Humour Moat) and O'Dowd is unlikely due to Oscar Isaac's presence (Single Musical Guideline). Will Forte (under-hyped co-lead of an Oscar prospect) and RDJ (film carrying star of a well liked massive hit series) are the closest outside shots next to those four, but I could still kind of see them happening, unlike O'Dowd.
Picture:
Nebraska
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Savig Mr. Banks
Before Midnight
@Pretentious--there's a big difference between TLR and The Tourist. Depp got nommed because the Globes like him, but back then he still had the goodwill of the moviegoing public (Dark Shadows anyone?) and when it came to The Tourist, the film was reviled by the critics, but the actors were not singled out for blame. TLR is a different story. Not to mention the offensive casting choice this time around. Sigh.
I know Adams is loved here and I really enjoy her in lighter fare (Miss Pettigrew is one of my guilty pleasures), but I think its a long, long shot to crown her a win at this point. The trailers have shown promise, but nothing as strong as the one sheet Nat posted a few weeks back. Every frame of Lawrence looks good to terrific however and Adams could lose out due to being upstaged by a stronger perf in the same film when otherwise she might be the lock everyone is wishing for. I would say she is a contender--probably, winner--maybe, maybe not. I could see her having a better shot with the Janis Joplin pic (if that happens) but even then, Joplin was not exactly the looker that Adams is and it will be hard to beat Midler's turn in The Rose in essentially the same role which she will be compared too.
Rumors say Philomena will go Drama and A:OC will go Comedy. Nothing's really confirmed so far, though. It's clear Harvey don't want both of his actress contenders being up against each other. Still Drama Actress is between Blanchett and Bullock obviously. At least in Comedy Dench would have won rather easily.
But Harvey's still a producer of A:OC, so he will try everything to maximize it's (awards) potential. My good guess at least. *shrug*
@ TB - I like it when the Globes turn awesome and could hand out unexpected but deserving nods along the likes of Adele Exarchopoulos, a his and her pair for Ethan & Julie, Gerwig and Frances Ha making a splash in Comedy or even something that everyone loved and was a big hit like This Is The End showing up. But gawd, just imagine them nominating something so forgotten and trashed like that Diana movie.
@Mark The First - Would that they would hand out nominations to any of those performances you listed. I'm not sure if you were being facetious with your last sentence, but sadly there's way more precedent to predict that they would nominate Naomi Watts for Diana before they'd touch any of those other performances. The HFPA don't really have a huge aversion to critically disavowed biopic performances.
Henry: On Amy Adams Oscar chance, I'd personally stump for Big Eyes. Why? Biopic, marital strife, courtroom, an artist that was too weird for them in his peak possibly making one last hurrah masterpiece (the guys writing it wrote Ed Wood, easily the best script Burton ever filmed), slight deglam, respected subject without Mitchell's messy overtly political bent and Christoph Waltz (maybe the most bizarre second win EVER) as her co-star.
@Brookesboy, Re Depp : The HPFA are foreign and you can't presume that they will find the same things offensive as you do.
The number of HPFA who love Depp is large enough to regularly nominate him but rarely large enough for him to win. His only win is for Sweeney Todd. If a few dozen Depp-loving-HPFA-voters are not offended, then that may be enough.
Vaus, maybe it's my basic belief in human intelligence. But I believe there's a limit to even the HFPA's lack of taste.
If Philomena and Saving Mr. Banks will go to drama (Especially Banks with Feinberg and Thompson mentioned that film as a light drama -Finding Neverland type). These are my predictions:
PICTURE:
01. August: Osage County
02. Inside Llewyn Davis
03. Nebraska
04. Before Midnight
05. Her
----------------
06. The Heat
07. Black Nativity
08. Enough Said
09. Don Jon
10. The Sapphires
ACTOR:
01. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
02. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
03. Joaquin Phoenix, Her
04. James Gandolfini, Enough Said
05. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Don Jon
-----------------------
06. James Franco, Spring Breakers (JGL and Franco could be the token GG boy)
07. Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
08. Chris O'Dowd, The Sapphires
09. Johnny Depp, The Lone Ranger (But then, Tom Cruise was snubbed last year and his reputation is still better internationally)
10. Simon Pegg, At the World's End
ACTRESS:
01. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
02. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
03. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
04. Melissa McCarthy, The Heat
05. Sandra Bullock, The Heat
------------------------------------
06. Scarlett Johansson, Don Jon
07. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
08. Jennifer Hudson, Black Nativity (This could be a perfect GG move)
09. Deborah Mailman, The Sapphires
10. Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha (Sorry, but if MEW didn't make it)
My predix
Comedy/Musical Picture
Iron Man 3 (This Year's Alice in Wonderland)
Jackass Presents Bad Grampa (This year's Borat)
The Heat (This year's Bridesmaids)
The Lone Ranger (This year's The Tourist)
The World's End (token Brit)