The Golden Gyllenhaals. And Final Best Actor Predictions
Tuesday, January 13, 2015 at 5:17PM In the cascade of perfect smiles, smh laughter at outre jokes, and general 'oh god the camera is on me now and I don't have a script' that is awards show reaction shows you may have missed the Jake Gyllenhaal and Maggie Gyllenhaal had pride of place at Sunday's Golden Globe ceremony, and received the very first reaction shot as Tina & Amy entered to host, their joke quote, "the 72nd and final Golden Globe Awards". The very first reaction shot. Even Oprah had to settle for second billing.
It was a good night for the Gyllenhaals. They started the festivities with family nostalgia listening to "Graceland" in the limo (as they said on the red carpet), Maggie won for Best Actress in a Television Movie or Miniseries for The Honourable Woman, Jake was a very proud sibling and a nominee, and Jake's current Broadway co-star Ruth Wilson ("Constellations") was also a winner taking Best Actress in a Drama Series for The Affair.
Maggie's acceptance speech was a beauty
I love that she doesn't even disguise that she's "complicated" which Gone Girl reminds us is a code word for "bitch." Will any of this reminder of her screen power that the industry got in The Honourable Woman transfer back to the big screen in better parts?
Even Frances McDormand vaguely put up with Maggie's speech.. well, half of it anyway. She started fanning herself at one point which looked very dismissive oncamera until we read afterwards that the air conditioning was not working in the building, which explains all of the celebrities looking like they forgot to powder before taking the stage.
But What About Jake?
He didn't win but with Nightcrawler picking up so much steam at various guilds, it seems reasonable to expect him to show up in the final five for Best Actor. I've decided to bet big and risky on Nightcrawler in my final Oscar predictions, so I'm saying he's in.
My Final Predictions
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything
Now, it is a tight race and anyone could fall out, really, with the exception of Redmayne & Keaton -- either of them missing would be a shocker. If someone does stumble my guess is that it's not Gyllenhaal since his film garnered so much surprising love late in the game, but either Oyelowo (if Selma underperforms) or *gasp* Cumberbatch... in kind of a Leo/Titanic moment. Bradley Cooper may be gaining steam with American Sniper but of the 9 performances left standing at this point (my predictions: plus Carell, Cooper, Fiennes, and Spall) Cooper's is literally the least showy. It's not too often where the least showy triumph, even if he is very good as the blindly patriotic kiling machine. But Just about the only attention-grabbing aspect of his turn is that he gained weight. He has approximately one scene you might call an 'Oscar clip'. Now, that might not stop AMPAS from nominating him if they're in a very Cooper place (Oscar, like the Emmys, does get into ruts where anything will do for certain performers) but are they? His two nominations were for super popular actors-branch obsessions with the whole cast receiving nominations. He'd have to pull this one off on his own.
Finally, my heart wants to predict Ralph Fiennes as the surprise that makes every bit of sense once it happens. But my head tells me that's entirely too much wishful thinking. The Oscars would never give me both Fiennes and Gyllenhaal. That would be too much abundance for this pundit whose taste in male actors is generally not sympatico with Oscar voters.
Reader Comments (35)
Nightcrawler RULES!
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I'm crossing my fingers and toes that Ralph Fiennes gets swept along by "The Grand Budapest Hotel." It would be nice to see a sly, comedic performance honored.
I'm with you Nat! I'm just sick and tired of the Oscar narrative with actors playing hadicapped people or torture geniuses. No matter how much I love Eddie Redmayne. It is just....annoying to a fault. Like, when will they see actual people creating fictional characters relevant anymore? On the other hand, I want Harvey Wienstein to sink down along with TIG at the Oscars! That Oscar whore could not be the same man who found Miramax and and took risks pushing Jane Campion's The Piano or Neil Jordan's The Crying Game or even Pulp Fiction! I wish Lou Bloom would shoot him in the bath when he craps or Monsieur Gustav screw him badly in a hotel:)
Mmm, if Grand Budapest Hotel could take Comedy Picture at the Globes over Birdman, I'm thinking Fiennes is probably closest to the cusp, if not actually the guy who'll bump out whoever the least secure of the presumed top 5 is.
Maggie's speech was hands-down the best of the night, and The Honorable Woman was so beautiful and fascinating. Her performance was lithe and intelligent in ways we've never seen her before. And her remarks added new shades to a conversation that women like Amy Adams and Jessica Chastain reduce to the most simplistic of observations.
Seriously, if you're gonna dedicate a whole post to interesting, credible things actresses say about roles for women, go with someone whose experience of being not-so-easily-cast gives her some authority, not women who can literally have any role they want.
I know a lot of people have problems with "Foxcatcher" but I am a BIG fan, so I am on team Steve Carell. They usually really like B.Miller's movie so I hope they love this one. Wishful thinking perhaps...
This category will undoubtedly hold some shockers. Like what you said, there's NINE legitimate contenders for five spots so someone who is presumed "locked" is going to be disappointed Thursday morning and I think it's going to be David Oyelowo replaced with one of the "surge" candidates--either Bradley Cooper or Ralph Fiennes. I'm thinking Cooper may actually be the one who makes it.
Benedict Cumberbatch is getting in. Let's just accept that Harvey has a monopoly over these awards every year and he's not going to let his lead pony miss a major nomination.
Oh, and I agree regarding Maggie. I thought she gave the best speech of the night as well and The Honorable Woman is an incredible piece of work. It's on Netflix now so watch it!
I don't want to get my hopes up - but if I could have any wish it would be the addition of Ralph Fiennes to the best actor list of nominees. I hate that the Oscars (and other awards groups) always genuflect to the alter of Big Drama or Suffering.
Witty, subtle, comic performances are so often overlooked by awards, and yet later they become cherished by the public. Fiennes gave a performance that reminded me of Cary Grant, and it will last as well as Jeff Bridges in Big Lebowski. Comedy is not easy -(notice that Daniel Day Lewis gave his one bad performance in Nine), Fiennes was perfection.
The Honourable Woman was the best mini series I saw last year, and I was so delighted with Maggie's win. I hope more people take some time to watch it.
I am so conflicted about this category. There are so many good performances yet I'm terrified they'll screw it all up. Jake might be the least likely (on paper) nominee in this category since... maybe Viggo in 'Eastern Promises'? It would be incredibly cool to happen, but I don't want it to be at the expense of Oyelowo. I'm terrified that 'Selma' will do very poorly after the precursor nosedive - can it really all be explained away by lack of screeners?
Besides Spall's (which is surely only in the realm of dreams at this point, sadly), Oyelowo's is the best performance of the year, and it means so much, both emotionally and politically, that it'd be a true travesty to see it left out. Especially for Cooper (who is actually fine. But still.).
Dream outcome from that 9 would be Gyllenhaal, Oyelowo, Fiennes, Spall and either Keaton or Redmayne - see, an embarrassment of riches! So you can bet Cumberbatch and Cooper will be in there instead.
Oh, and add me to the pile insisting people see 'The Honourable Woman' - so elegant, elliptical, gripping, but emotionally stunning. Maggie is its diamond, but it also has a dynamite turn from Janet Teer.
Team Fiennes!
DDL gave a terrific comic performance in Room with a View.
I'm thinking Ralph is the spoiler at either Jake or Cumberbatch's loss although Olyelowo isn't getting the conversation I thought he would (or that he deserves).
@LadyEdith: But was Day-Lewis's role in Nine really comedic? I would consider his performances in My Beautiful Laundrette and A Room With a View better evidence of his gifts in that direction...and I find him incredibly funny in Gangs of New York.
I say Ralph or Bradley will surprise -- or maybe both!
IF Fiennes could make it in place of Cumberbatch, that would put this Best Actor slate up there in terms of the all-time greatest lists.
Paul Outlaw: Is he funny in Gangs of New York? Yes. Is that intentional? As far as I could tell, not really. Its a movie where the main character only refocuses (on vengeance) because the villain is threatening his girl even though they'd set up a perfectly good reason in the opening (they could have cut Cameron Diaz out entirely and they'd have lost NOTHING). Its a movie where a main character gives a ponderous speech while draped in an American flag even though the main story has nothing to do with patriotism. Its a movie with a confusing pseudo fourth wall breaking framing choice of a line delivery most of the way through the movie even though there's been no prior sign that this is intentionally trying for comedy. That was the last time a Scorsese movie was written by Jay Cocks and other writers were there to somewhat temper his bad tendencies. He is the sole writer on Silence. Silence is almost definitely going to SUCK.
I'm sad that Jake didn't win because he gave a hell of a performance in Nightcrawler while I'm happy that Maggie won.
Volvagia: I can't imagine that it wasn't at least partially intentional. The performance is definitely one of the highlights of that production. Of the Oscar nominees that year, I'd rank it second (after Cage in Adaptation.).
If the British didn't nominate Oyelowo, why should we think the Academy will?
Same as SAG.
Get rid of Oyelowo and Redmayne and give me Carell and Fiennes.
I think the issue with Selma is all down to the very late finish and launch. Into the Woods was finished months ago, screeners sent to everyone which is why it has gotten the notice it has despite a late opening. Same for American Sniper. DGA voting had been on for two weeks before Selma was even finished and screeners couldn't be printed in time. Same for SAG and BAFTA. Paramount, on top of all this, has been very poor at supporting Selma and Interstellar in the awards race---except with AMPAS. It certainly doesn't help that so much of the talk about Selma has been questioning its accuracy. When you have multiple, worthy nominees in a category, it is very easy for a film with poor promotional organization/logistics to be lost in the shuffle (and these problems are almost always laid at the feet of the director). They should have waited until the new year and launched it properly.
I think it's gonna be the same as BAFTA.
Cumberbatch
Fiennes
Gyllenhaal
Keaton
Redmayne
Maggie Gyllenhaal's speech was one of the most eloquent things I've heard regarding complicated characters and an actor's desire to wanna challenge themselves and an audience's perception of what makes good product. Very fascinating.
I don't even wanna talk about Best Actor since I feel like we're all gonna lose no matter who gets in. I'm kinda rooting for Cooper, we can all agree Fiennes would be amazing and Spall would be a dream at this point. Cumberbatch, Gyllenhaal and Oyelowo could be opted out for various reasons. Hoping it's Cumberbatch honestly, I like him but that performance just didn't do it for me and that film needs to go.
You know, I've been thinking as of late that Jake might miss out. I remember thinking when Tilda got snubbed for Kevin "well, the Academy likes what it likes". Darker and "weirder" movies do have a harder time getting nominated. Similar to what happened to Michael Fassbender in Shame.
I'm worried the Oscars might not know what to make of Nighcrawler and that maybe we're being mislead by these precursors.
Redmayne and Keaton are the only locks closely followed by Cumberbatch. Gyllenhaal is in fourth because his film is gaining such buzz and compared to how is fighting for the final spot he has more support with each if the four main acting nominations. For the final spot I really an fighting over whether Oyelowo or Fiennes will get nominated. Sure Selma has been snubbed a lot and Grand Budapest had been nominated everywhere I feel more confident in Otelowi. Although something I have noticed about Fiennes is that the only nomination he did not get was sag (he was ensemble nominated) this track is similar to bale last year and look what happened. In the end I think I'll go for Oyelowo but in a perfect world both would get in and either Cumberbatch or redmayne would be left out.
I can't give up on Fiennes. I have a hunch that the film will have the most nominations and Fiennes will be one of the nominations for the film.
Keaton and Redmayne are safe. Too bad Redmayne could win an Oscar for such a dull performance. They're honoring the legend Stephen Hawking and not Eddie's performance to me. Could somebody who loves it explain what's so great about it because I don't feel it?
But back to the Oscars:
1. Redmayne
2. Keaton
3. Cumberbatch
4. Gyllenhaal or Oyelowo
5. Fiennes
One of them will fall. Oyelowo?
I have an awful feeling Oyelowo will be snubbed but I don't want to believe it. I wanna believe that the Academy would no way turn away from a man playing a historical figure like Martin Luther King, Jr. but as it's been stated, the campaign for this film has been so messy that someone apart of a stronger campaign could easily take over.
I'm scared Cooper will get in, but I feel like Fiennes will. Also, no one is mentioning Carrell which makes me not want to forget about him, though I do think he'll miss out. BAFTA putting him in supporting was very telling, along with the sort of muted response to the film. But he could still get in.
Either way, Best Actor will be a nail biter while watching nominations announced.
@Lucky - Nah, Nightcrawler seems to have support in at least one or two other categories than just Actor. We Need to Talk About Kevin was only going for Tilda Swinton, and was a much stranger and more alienating film overall. Nightcrawler is dark, but the weirdest thing about it is Jake's character. I think what it really comes down to though, is something that's been touched on in the past month or so, is lack of interest in female lead films vs male lead films. They'll "get" Nightcrawler because it's about a creepy white dude, which is what most of the Academy is.
Beware the wrath of the Cumberbitches!
Keaton for the win.
Anyone else feel Cumbebatch was very affected in TIG,not one bit natural,same goes for Redmayne and personally I don't think it's a gr8 acting achievement to contort your body,before he gets very ill Eddie is lost in some scenes,I coul see the effort of both actors,Fiennes please please.
Phillip H -Ha! The best line of the week:
"They'll "get" Nightcrawler because it's about a creepy white dude, which is what most of the Academy is."
I sure hope Nathaniel puts it on the home page!
Hooray for the Gyllenhaals. Maggie's speech was definitely one for the Hall of Fame of great award show acceptance speeches.
I hope Fiennes gets a nod. I loved that film and the combo of Fiennes and Revolori is sheer brilliance.
Nathaniel, ITA with your predictions. But I hope against hope Boseman and Isaac can knock out Cumberbatch and Redmayne--two very boring, strained performances.
I would love to see Revolori surprise in Supporting Actor. Such a fun and unique performance.
Unpopular opinion here but...what the heck. Why the vitriol pointed at Cumberbatch? I loved the performance and liked the movie a lot. I think he's a solid choice for a nomination and even a win. (I agree that Redmayne feels hollow some how.) TIG has become the cool movie to dismiss, particularly as Weinstein fodder, but it ain't "The Reader" folks. It's an exceptionally well made if very conservative film. Not your cup of tea but let's save some of our horror for more worthy (or better said "unworthy") candidates.