Oscar Charts: All Categories Updated!
Saturday, November 7, 2015 at 5:15PM Spotlight or Martian? Rooney or Alicia? Brie or Saoirse? Joy or The Revenant or Hateful Eight among the unseen? If we're asking these questions we're playing into awards season narratives that are already in place. And not "narratives" that belong to the Oscar stories of the movies themselves -- i.e. the narratives that matter -- but the plotting that's emerging from the thundering din of The Movie Internet where we all conjecture about things we haven't seen or presumed precursor momentum that has yet to take place for months on end. Welcome Awards Season!
The Martian has planted a lot of Oscar seeds. Will they be ripe for harvest?
So at The Film Experience we like to focus on nomination conjecture and not wins. That's how our charts our arranged, not by likelihood of win. One "race" at a time, thank you. Please to enjoy the new charts which were all updated earlier this week. TFE is currently predicting The Martian to lead the nomination tally with 10 and Bridge of Spies to surprise as your second in charge with Spotlight and The Revenant in hot pursuit for Third Most Nominated. Though it's breaking our heart to predict only 4 nominations each and in none of the top categories for Carol and Mad Max Fury Road, that's what we're doing. Is this to inocculate us against disappointment later on? Ding! Ding! Ding! You're so smart, readers.
The new Gurus of Gold charts in the top 6 categories are also up. General consensus is clear in some places (Spotlight and The Martian) and totally foggy in others. I see I'm more bullish on the actors from Youth and Room and the overall prospects of The Danish Girl and Sicario than other pundits and more doubtful about the films that have yet to emerge. The Gurus excitement about Joan Allen in Room is causing some second guessing chez moi. As you know yours truly (Nathaniel R) thought the role wasn't meaty / showcased enough but she keeps propping up in conversations. Maybe it's because people miss her so much ... as well they should.
Investigate the Charts and report back in the comments!
PICTURE and DIRECTOR (big movement for The Martian and Ridley Scott), ACTRESS (gains for Lily & Saoirse), ACTOR (gains for Hanks & Damon), SUPPORTING ACTRESS (gains for Rachel McAdam who I believe will be hanging on tight to those Best Pic coattails), SUPPORTING ACTOR (Mark Rylance nearing "locked" status), SCREENPLAYS (Bridge of Spies is saying it's an original despite the same title as a book on the same subject), VISUALS (Mmmmm eye candy), SOUND, and shakeup eligibility for ANIMATED FILMS, DOCUMENTARIES and SHORTS
Reader Comments (48)
My predictions:
1. Joy
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Carol
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Room
8. Brooklyn
9. The Big Short
-
10. Inside Out
11. Steve Jobs
I think Steve Jobs might be fatally hurt by its dire box office and bad buzz. It needs a resurgence to get back into the race, and I'm not really sure it can make it.
On Inside Out: The only times an animated film made it in the expanded line-up was before the 5% rule change, and that makes me unsure of its chances. I don't know why.
Also, I've seen too many ecstatic tweets on The Big Short recently. I'm keeping it at #9 for now, and waiting to see what happens after its premiere on the 12th.
On the Best Actress race, if Cate doesn't happen, I might cry. Her performance in Carol is out of this world.
I love looking through these!
My 2 main takeaways:
1. So much The Martian. I didn't expect it to take off.
2. God, I really hate the Youth poster.
I'm actually flabbergasted that people see "The Martian" as a major Oscar contender. It's a fun, aggressively mainstream Hollywood film, but Oscars? Even the craft isn't particularly impressive. I'd be surprised if it gets more than Visual Effects, Editing, and one or both Sounds.
Thanks for this - awesome work! I am so here for Saiorse, doesn't she just seem the smartest, nicest, coolest chick in the room?
THANK YOU!!!
I'm all in for Brie Larson. Perhaps it was my being taken in by her performance so much but I hardly remember Allen. An underwritten role, indeed. With all of the recent play on The Lobster getting independent nominations I'm surprised that Farrell in particular isn't getting more heat. The cultural little white sound proof room into which Steve Jobs is being shoved is one of the most puzzling things I've ever witnessed.
JJL and Isabella Rossellini for Supporting Actress are my top spoilers. I think you are underestimating both.
Is Lily Tomlin really strong enough to bump out Cate Blanchett? I also refuse to get on the Joy train until it starts screening with top critics.
I am so anxious for Carol to do well.
I love it when good/great "mainstream" films like the Martian can get Oscar buzz. Much better than those less than great Oscar bait or Actor showcases that routinely squeeze into the line up.
I sincerely doubt there will be two much less than 10 films better than either Ex Machina or Mad Max this year. It's a travesty they are not even really in the conversation any more. Sadly it is an accepted travesty in the blogosphere at this point. Where is the outrage? What is the point of having up to TEN freaking nomination slots if a film as great as Ex Machina isn't even in contention?!?!? How many slots would it take? Would even 20 be enough?!
I thought "Ex Machina" was a bit over rated- it was a long "Outer Limits" episode which probably told the same story in less time
If Oscars were a representation of quality in (American) filmmaking in a given year, which they most definitely, unarguably are not, what an unremarkable year this would be,
The Martian? Sure, never seen anything like it...
Spotlight? A 2-hour Law and Order-like special -granted, with good acting throughout-, but lacking in any dramatic structure that is thrilling (God knows Ruffalo reaches for that in every single scene, which I found a little irritating at times) and ultimately none of the characters do anything really remarkable - knocking on doors, interviewing people? Sounds real hard...The big Aha moment, if one could call it that, is a montage of rulers and pens.
Room to me is a movie that gets progressively worse as it goes.
I'm looking forward to Carol and The Revenant. Those look like well crafted, emotionally intense films.
I think DiCaprio is only winning his Oscar when he realizes he needs some voice work done (well, Bullock did it anyway, but maybe that's another matter). In the trailer for The Revenant, I could see the boyish high-pitched dramatic scream again, which really works against being convincing in more mature, older characters (that got in the way of his Revolutionary Road performance, imo).
It doesn't really matter much to me who is nominated or wins, but I really hope you're wrong about Jennifer Jason Leigh, probably because of your not connecting with her as an actress (is it because she is too vainless and you prefer your actresses to have more of movie star quality to them?). When has anyone ever worked with 3 directors such as David Lynch, Tarantino and Charlie Kaufman in the same year? Maybe Shelley Duvall with her Kubrick, Altman, Allen trifecta? She went from having zero lines in the TH8 teaser, to one line in the Anomalisa trailer ("Why?") to one full sentence in the new TH8 trailer, which she absolutely kills and made me excited for the tone she may have found for the character. Here is hoping for something fair in this unfair game called the Academy Awards.
Just a hunch but i'm bullish on Mad Max... We're still talking about it, and I think the December Oscar bait will disappoint. A nod for Charlize would be in my top 5 fave surprises.
Anonny -- i share your distaste for that thing of not even 10 being enough for obviously strong films that just aren't "Oscary". I wonder if something like District 9 could happen again or if it was only because people hadn't figured out how to play in the new system yet.
Marsha -- that's a good point. the still talking about it thing.
Ryan -- the JJL thing is from hearing from someone who has seen the film. admittedly it's only anecdotal but they thought the only acting element that might be a big thing is Walton Goggins.
1- According Goldderby Samuel L. Jackson will compete in Leading in The Hateful Eight. (https://twitter.com/GoldDerby/status/663121287686950912?s=09)
2- Although I do not think Cate Blanchett won her third Oscar this year I think she still has more chance of being nominated than Saoirse Ronan, Carey Mulligan and Lily Tomlin.
3- I still hope a change occurs in the campaign and Alicia Vikander compete in Leading.
Uhhhhhh.... sorry but i just can't imagine any scenario with them snubbing Blanchett for "Carol". i mean COME ON
I think the real question: Which film gets more Film Bitch nominations: Mad Max or Carol?
Arkaan --oh man. tough decisions ahead in such a good year.
Thank you for including so many films in the discussion. You keep the fun in it. I always like the way you pick interesting artistic lively films, which make me want to run out and see a bunch right now. Often the discussion seems to be so narrowed down before all the films are even seen, so I appreciate your efforts of helping us remember the pleasures of multiple movies.
You missed out Kristen Wiig's phenomenal work in 'Crying In A Sweater' for Best Actress :-)
Could Jennifer Lawrence's recent comments about pay inequality hurt her and the film's chances? The Academy has many rightwing conservatives who don't believe women should be paid the same as men. And an actress complaining about earning ONLY $20 million might piss off the members who aren't as rich.
I do think the Academy will overturn at least one of these supporting campaigns, like Vikander.
It's easier for them to do that when the movie doesn't have another female lead (sorry Rooney).
you actually have Inside Out for 3 nominations...and if you include sound editing that would be 4. Quite likely for a Pixar best picture nominee. Anyways, really hope this one sticks.
Well that is gonna be a major snub if Blanchett is left out. Woooow
Looks like Carol has lost the steam but I think the movie will get its mojo back after the theatre release later this month
Shit! I want Tomlin AND Ramplng not Tomlin OR Rampling!
Cate Blanchett was nominated for the Gotham Awards, so i think she must be, at least, in top 5 best actresses contenders. And I think you give much credit for Jennifer Lawrence's mediocre performances.
I think David O Russell is due for a miss and Joy gets left out. Rampling or Blanchett replace Lawrence in Best Actress.
I also think Hateful Eight might suffer from backlash against Tarantino for some of his political comments recently.
I predict DiCaprio gets his Oscar this year. Fassbender won't campaign, can't see Redmayne going back to back Caine and Damon seems like nominees, not threats to win. Only dark horse could be McKellan if the Academy finally wants to make up for his snub in Gods and Monsters. Seems the right timing for Leo.
Walters or Allen over Fonda.
And why does that picture of Fonda on the charts look so much like Rhea Perlman?
The pundits going against Carol like this is the worst thing of awards season. First Feinberg and Tapley now Nathaniel. The movie was well positioned but they killed it. There's bad buzz around a masterpiece. And now a Blanchett snub, lol. Just take a look at the BFCA score, it's like all the basics in the world decided this is not a movie for them. Take your Brooklyns and your Bridges and in 10 years we'll see which movie will still be talked about.
Nat, a couple of things;
You say -
2 nominations
Inside Out -lowest predicted noms for Best Pic nominee
But you give Inside Out three nominations: Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Animated Feature.
I'm shocked at the Blanchett snub. I don't know if it's brave or crazy but it seems like a pretty out there prediction. But then, you're pretty cold on Carol in general, as a lot of pundits have been.
The single nomination for Joy is...well, I'm sure you know what I think about that. ;-)
At least this is one year we won't have to hear about how the Best Actor field is the most competitive ever. It pales in comparison to the other three acting categories.
Jows -- there seems to be this weird thing out there that if i'm not predicting something i am cold to it or don't like it. I LOVE CAROL. I think it's probably a masterpiece. I just don't necessarily thing Oscar voters will go for it en masse and it's a competitive year.
Erik -- i just don't understand why everyone is willing to assume JOY is the biggie when no one has (really) seen it... i don't think test screenings count as having seen something. I keep hearing crazy things like "still editing" haha
Edu -- nobody knows if JLaw is mediocre or great in Joy because they haven't seen it yet.
Cal -- It will be interesting to see if they do that with Vikander. I firmly believe she'll be nominated either way. I think she could even win if Oscar is warmer to Danish Girl than people are expecting. I agree it's not happening with Rooney since they have shown their willingness to underline all category frauds when two actors of the same gender are leading a movie. The silliest ones are still Casey Affleck for Jesse James and Jamie Foxx for Collateral. Both were absolutely moronic classifications.
Best Actress without Cate Blanchett? Now that truly is shocking to me. With Jennifer Lawrence an automatic in, sight unseen at that.
Steve Jobs has literally died at the box office and it's early November, the film probably won't even hit 20 million domestically. There is the realistic chance of seeing Fassbender and Winslet snatching nominations but Best Picture and Best Director and so on? I don't think so. I can't even see Bridge of Spies hold on for as long to be a strong BP contender. We shall see.
I also find it weird you're placing Tomlin ahead of Blanchett. There's no way Grandma will best Carol in the following:
- box office
- critical praise
- star power
- hardcore campaigning
- timing of release
Carol is beautiful, but it really wasn't that good.
I think Marion Cotillard could be promoted as Supporting for Macbeth. She seems have more chances to obtain the nomination in that category instead lead one.
Best Actress is so up in the air right now that the studio could put Vikander back with the leads and still maintain frontrunner status. (I haven't seen The Danish Girl, so can't speak to the quality of Vikander's performance. I base my assumption purely on buzz that I hear about the actress and her work in the film.)
Also, isn't so exciting that none of the acting categories have a frontrunner yet? What the hell? Can't remember another year when all 4 were this wide open.
"It won't the People's Choice at Toronto which is a great indicator of Best Picture prospects."
I think there's a typo in this posting about "The Room".
I think DiCaprio is only winning his Oscar when he realizes he needs some voice work done (well, Bullock did it anyway, but maybe that's another matter). In the trailer for The Revenant, I could see the boyish high-pitched dramatic scream again, which really works against being convincing in more mature, older characters (that got in the way of his Revolutionary Road performance, imo).
This.
bcarter3 - I also think there's a typo in your post. THE ROOM is a VERY different movie than ROOM. (If a movie like THE ROOM ever got Oscar traction, I would finally achieve my dream of retiring to the country, in the full knowledge that the Oscars had just lost all credibility! :-) )
They're different movies?! Gosh, that explains a lot. Couldn't figure out why Brie Larson was getting all the press, and Tommy Wiseau was ignored.
Ah, the perils of my copy editor mentality--I think it's pretty much impossible to point out an error w/o making a greater one.
PS If you're delaying your move to the country until the Oscars have lost all credibility, I can only say: "Crash." Enjoy your retirement.
I kinda hope Diane Ladd gets nominated purely because then it'd be Bruce Dern in '14, Laura Dern in '15 and Diane Ladd completing the family circle in '16.
I'm oso curious yhy is Blanchett bummed off?? if anyone shld be downgraded to no.6 surely its JJL?? not only Joy is unseen now, her recent remarks might rub the male voters the wrong way, the highest paid actress in the world whining she wasn't paid enough...lol...it'd be more poignant if a struggling actress made that point but coming from JJL, who at 25 had an Oscar & so much success & $$$ just seem so ungrateful....
Claran, if you think that JLaw was 'moaning' in that article then you totally missed the point of said article.
Could this be the year of the elderly? I'm really rooting for Ian McKellen, such a great performance, and I don't think Oscar voters will forget it. And then there's Charlotte Rampling. I think once the campaigns get underway, she'll be unstoppable. Critics awards will be very important in the overcrowded Actress race. I also think Carey Mulligan's chances are sinking swiftly.
Rami - right? Some of these comments make me want to root FOR JLaw. Jeez.
Jonathan - See "Argo."
God I hope you're wrong about Damon. I like him as an actor (although I used to like him before his smug, condescending, hypocritical side came out recently) and in a few key moments he does bring more to "The Martian" than what the dialogue is doing on the surface, but he mostly coasts on his charm as that's all that's required from him for the majority of the movie.