Star Wars & Oscar. How Will "The Force Awakens" Fare?
Saturday, December 19, 2015 at 11:00AM 
The second that people started realizing that everyone was actually loving the new Star Wars episode, you could feel the Oscar buzz wave building and building and broke with lots of "Best Picture nomination! demands online. The BFCA even announced a ridiculously embarrassing extra ballot measure to ask the members if they'd like to add the movie into their Best Picture lineup after the fact. In short: no one will ever take this group seriously again. (Sigh) 'The Force Awakens will be swimming in Oscars!' the internet seems to have proclaimed en masse.
But not so fast young padewans.
Oscar nominations can prove elusive, especially for franchises, family films, and genre films three groups to which Star Wars belongs. People will cite "Oscar voters grew up with the franchise -- they'll be nostalgic!" but, consider: I grew up with the franchise. I loved episode 7. And I wouldn't vote for it.
This is not to say that I would make a typical Oscar voter. I would not. But typical Oscar voters tastes lie somewhere in the space between critics and general audiences. Put more plainly: there's a difference between totally enjoying a spectacle and wanting it honored as the very "Best" of its year.
Let's look back at Star Wars Oscar history to get some clues as to how The Force Awakens will fare after the jump...
All Statistics are drawn from the first six films. The Star Wars saga has thus far amassed...
• 22 nominations
• 7 wins
• 3 special Oscars
Or roughly 3½ nominations and 1½ Oscars per film if you distribute them evenly. Not that you would as this is one uneven franchise.
an FYC ad for Return of the Jedi's sound workOrder of Academy Preference
- Star Wars (1977) 10 nominations | 6 wins | 1 special Oscar for Sound fx
- Return of the Jedi (1983) 4 nominations | 0 wins | 1 special Oscar for Visual fx
- Empire Strikes Back (1980) 3 nominations | 1 win | 1 special Oscar for Visual fx
- The Phantom Menace (1999) 3 nominations | 0 wins
- [Tie] Attack of the Clones (2002) and Revenge of the Sith (2005) 1 nomination each | 0 wins
Most Common Honors
- Visual Effects - 5 of 6 films
It's hard to believe now but the Visual Effects Oscar category didn't truly stabilize until 1991 (!!!). Since then there has always been an annual competition. Before then there were many years where they just handed out a special prize to one film. - Sound and/or Sound Effects - 4 of 6 films
- [tie] Score -3 of 6 films (original trilogy only)
Art Direction - 3 of 6 films (original trilogy only) - Other nominations occurred only once in the series history though it should probably be noted that the Makeup and Hair category (the series was only nominated here for Revenge of the Sith didn't exist until 1981 so perhaps the first two films would have been nominated had it been created earlier.
Magazine praising Dolby sound. Oscar's sound branch usually loves these films.
Zero Oscar Attention
There are only four traditional Oscar categories that the saga has never been nominated in. The most surprising is Cinematography (not not even for the first film) and the least surprising is Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress (there being no supporting actresses in the films).
So What of THE FORCE AWAKENS?
Of the ten Oscars which have been gifted to the Star Wars franchise, 70% of them arrived on April 3rd, 1978 when Star Wars had only recently left theaters (after a record smashing 44 week run) and had impacted the culture with an immediate force unseen since The Sound of Music and Gone With the Wind. In short it was a total colossus and remains so to this day. The obsession stuck with the world and you could argue that all subsequent nominations are afterglow for the initial infatuation and, much later, nostalgia for that early love. Notice the kindness expressed to The Phantom Menace (3 nominations and decent respectful reviews) despite it being a plainly terrible movie.
So what of The Force Awakens, by any measure the best Star Wars film since the original trilogy? Oscar voters only have 5 slots on their nomination ballots for Best Picture (despite the intricate math of voting bringing us a Best Picture list composed of 5 to 10 pictures). And given the tabulation process you really need a lot of #1 and #2 placements to secure a slot. Will people really abandon their favorites en masse to laud a new Star Wars above all the other films they've loved this year? My guess is no. Both because the rave reviews are somewhat a case of grading on a curve (it doesn't get worse than 1999-2005) and because people love it largely because it reminds them so much of an earlier Oscar-winning Best Picture that spawned a franchise. I mean they aren't going to watch it and think it's a technical masterwork on the scale of Mad Max Fury Road you know. If loving a film as a successful rebirth of a former Oscar winner were a criteria for buzz, you'd see Creed doing a lot better in precursor season and shaping up as a major player in all the races.
I could be wrong of course -- the crystal ball works sometimes and clouds up at others -- but my sense is that Visual Effects and Score are the only locks with probably both Sound categories thrown in for a 4 nomination total. That's more than enough to say "job well done, people -- looking forward to the next one!" Oddly Best Picture is probably the fifth most likely nomination (if the Force of Nostalgia prove irresistible) but 5 nominations is the ceiling.
Enjoy it for what it is!
The Takeaway: Don't pin your hopes on the Academy loving it as much as its diehard fans. That's the lesson we always learn with Todd Haynes films (can you feel the nail-biting of tension of how they will treat Carol?) but it applies to other kinds of movies too, especially beloved franchises.
Reader Comments (34)
hey aren't going to watch it and think it's a technical masterwork on the scale of Mad Max Fury Road you know
Please make an effort to watch Fury Road every two years and report to us whether it still holds weight for you. This is not Cameron territory 1984–1994. He had a great run before Titanic and those movies hold on a story and technical level. I promise you you will not care about Fury Road as much if at all in the years to come. It reminds me of the hysteria everyone had over Gravity a movie which will likely play as a joke to future audiences who realize early on Sandra Bullock is not going to die.
Force Awakens does not deserve a Best Picture nomination. It did its job which was to entertain and stir up warm emotions of an established brand.
It would not surprise me if the new sequel got nominated for Best Picture. It will definitely get a few technical noms for sure.
Tbh the Williams score shouldn't be nominated and it's total lacklustreness seems so bizarre. There wasn't even a punchy theme like the others l, even the prequels, had. So weird. Was it Abrams or is Williams retirement official now?
Poor BFCA - that ballot call (and only for best picture wtf?) definitely puts it below the Golden Globes at this point.
Why are The Danish Girl, Creed, The Big Shot, The Martian, Trumbo, Straight Outta Compton better than The Force Awakens? Well, they are not. The Academy started doing the Oscar with 10 best pic. nominations to open space for more popular movies and blockbusters (remember Wall-e and The Dark Knight?), to reach more viewers. I would totally understand Star Wars out of the ballot it we had 10 great pictures, like Carol, Spotlight, Son of Saul, Mustang, Love & Mercy, Sicario, Steve Jobs, Inside Out, Bridge of Spies, Room, and the list goes on. But we know that some pretty controversial movies are gonna get in. I guess Academy still doesn't know that they represent the Industry, and in 2015, no movie did so much for the Industry as The Force Awakens did. It's become the event of the year.
In principle I agree--but I also think it's possible that the combination of hype, massive box office and cultural interest, and being the shiny new thing might work in its favor. It could be like True Grit--it hit huge right when ballots went out, did great at nominations, and then everyone promptly forgot why they liked it so much by Oscar night. If anything, I'm afraid that other (and, it must be said, better) populist movies like Creed and Mad Max might get the boot because the Academy only has so much room for genre movies.
I worry that Mad Max and Creed and Star Wars cancel each other out in the nostalgia category.
The massive stronghold the Star Wars phenomenon has over cinematic culture, not only in America but all over the world, just comes to show how much the Academy screwed up by awarding best picture to Annie Hall back in 1977.
I love Woody Allen, of course he is a cultural icon as well, every cinephile worth his salt should go through his key films and the Academy does well to recognize his work from time to time with nominations and the occasional win, despite his notorious lack of interest and campaigning. Annie Hall is a masterpiece in its own right, a delightful movie and Diane Keaton is great in it. Top form Woody, really.
Still, it never comes near to scratching the surface of how impactful Star Wars is, how deeply and permanently has it redefned the entartainment industry and pop culture. It is an unrivaled juggernaut, not even the massive Marvel Universe can touch it. Even if some of us don't like it how it has changed the game, it still can never be said that it hasn't.
As far as BP mistakes, only How Green Was My Valley taking down Citizen Kane is more egregious.
A polite correction: That's not John Mollo in the photo - it's sound genius Ben Burtt.
I haven't seen The Force Awakens yet (I'm seeing it on Tuesday evening) but given the amount of anticipation it's had going for it, I wouldn't be surprised if Academy voters have kept a slot free in their mental ballots for it even before seeing it, and will only put in another film if Force Awakens turns out to be terrible (and it sounds as though it isn't).
Re: the make-up award, I am surprised that Return of the Jedi wasn't nominated. That film is full of excellent make-up that manages to be inventive without being over-the-top and which is also integral to the story.
I think 4-5 nominations is about right, unless they go totally bananas for it, in which case Cinematography, Production Design and Costume Design could fall in as well.
Carmen, I always really enjoy your comments - except this one which is profoundly silly.
Should we give Fifty Shades of Grey the Pulitzer while we're at it?
Now come on, I don't think anyone is predicting it for acting or screenplay nominations :); your post is very inline with the established Oscar "experts".
Best Picture is very possible although definitely far from a sure thing.
It is being seen and buzz is hitting at the exact right time for it to be one of those films left out of the other awards bodies but shows up as a nominee on Oscar day.
Question for anyone:
The last - and only - time a Star Wars film made the Best Picture short list, an actor was nominated along with it. Which performer - if any - in Episode VII would you like to see as at least part of the conversation?
Some commenters seem to have forgotten: It is called BEST Picture, not MOST IMPACTFUL picture. Quality, not zeitgeist. They are nor mutually exclusive, of course, but the box office and cultural significance alone will be ample reward for TFA
@Devin D
Harrison Ford for people who have seen the movie obviously. Though I like what Carrie Fisher did. Not award worthy but it made me want to see her in movies again. I wish someone would write a nice little vehicle for her. Her face aged seemed so appealing to me especially with the weight off she looks like she can breathe without struggle.
Goran, I personally believe I am at my very best when being profoundly silly. :)
I wouldn't say Fifty Shades is a good comparison, because it does not have the hefty scope of the Star Wars universe and it did not leave the same significant cultural footprint. I believe The Lord of the Rings would be a better comparison and, yes, that trilogy of books is very deserving of literary awards.
Haven't seen yet Star Wars yet ( I hate crowds ) but I will sometime in next weeks. However, I would rather see it nominated for BP then Bridge Of Spies which was done in the same nostalgia spirit.
I'd be aghast if it were nominated for The Big One. I enjoyed it plenty, but "enjoyed it plenty" should not a Best Picture nomination make. That middle ground between what audiences want to see versus what critics want them to see (but don't really because then how do they retain a sense of purpose?) is a difficult one, but I just don't see this as a film that exists in that middle ground. I do see "The Martian" and "Mad Max" sitting there far more comfortably.
I would have nominated Ford Or Cushing in 77 and totallly in for Mcdiarmid as Supporting Actor in 83.
Having seen the film once, I can say that it's pretty silly to think people really want The Force Awakens to be nominated for Best Picture. It's a good movie, maybe even a really good movie, but honestly it's not even J.J. Abrams' best movie. That's coming from a guy who will pick Star Wars over Star Trek any day of the week, but not when it comes to Star Wars VII vs. Star Trek '09.
@Rahul - I, too, was underwhelmed by John Williams' score. The best thing about the prequels was far and away Williams' music. The score for The Force Awakens wasn't that memorable, but I'll make a final judgment call when I see the movie again.
I never really considered acting awards for any Star Wars movies outside of Alec Guinness in the original film, but Mary's right when it comes to Ian McDiarmid. He could have been nominated in 1983 and 2005.
Nat: Saw your fully adjusted list. Still think you're over-ranking The Revenant at this point. Yeah, it hit the buttons of the HFPA and the BFCA (because Leo DiCaprio), but AFI AND NBR both avoided it as a top 10 candidate. It's crazy to say it's below Brooklyn, Creed or Compton (because it tickled the Globes fancy), but to say it's above Mad Max, The Big Short, Inside Out and Bridge of Spies at this point is also, probably, off.
Can Leo win is it simply a career Oscar or is it for this performance alone.
I'd be very surprised if it made the BP list. It was entertaining for the most part but, for me, it badly ran out of steam about half way through. I mean, I liked the nods and callbacks (who doesn't love seeing Chewie again?) but sheesh, once you've done that for a bit and everyone has clearly understood that it's not the prequels, you move on. They introduced some interesting new elements, then promptly dropped them all to make way for more nostalgia and some serious rehashing of the first film's plot.
SWTFA actually made me re-appreciate the lack of nostalgia in MMFR. I haven't seen Creed but it sounds like it got the 'respect the roots but move on' balance right too.
Kris Tapley thinks Bryan Cranston is the frontrunner. Sounds logical to me, and if he wins, I'll think it's hilarious.
Cranston really,sometimes we do get shocks.
I would give Ford a nomination in supporting actor, I forgotten what a great movie star he is until I saw The Force Awakens.
I wonder if there will be some odd split that will hurt all three of these films: MAD MAX, CREED, STAR WARS. The nostalgia-for-the-late-70s/early-eighties impulse is only so widespread and will only affect so many voters. People who love CREED are also likely those who loved the other three, and they aren't going to put all three at the top of their ballots.
I don't think nostalgia splitting the vote will be an issue, not with three such wildly different films. There's more of a danger that something like The Martian and MMFR will split votes as they're both critically acclaimed sci-fi movies for adults directed by popular veterans. Creed, meanwhile, is competing with the other 'straight' dramas more than the genre pics.
I expect MMFR to get tech nods plus BP/BD noms and SWTFA to get some tech noms but not BP or BD. Creed I really don't know. There's lots of affection for it but not a lot of heat so I can't see it doing much outside a nom for Stallone.
Creed: Best Supporting Actor, Best Film Editing, Best Original Song. All possible nominations.
I enjoyed Force Awakens but I do not get the raves at all. Of all the the franchise films Mad Max, Creed and Jurassic World this was actually my least favorite. For a movie that was kept so secret it was pretty funny the minute it started it became so predictable. I found it to be fine but honestly I was bored at moment. I'm definitely a little disappointed
i thought ian mcdiarmid was the best part of the prequel trilogy, and certainly revenge of the sith.... he was definitely the smartest actor in the room when it came to understanding exactly what kind of movie he was in. if the academy was more enlightened with high-tier smart camp performances, he could've been a shoo-in for a best supporting actor nom in 2005.
Do people honestly think that The Force Awakens is best picture material? I don't doubt that our affinity for nostalgia may color our judgment of such things, but even I as a lifelong Star Wars fan found the movie a touch too hokey, lazy, and redudant [SPOILER ALERT -- the mega Death Star? Really? -- END SPOILER] to consider it great by any standard of measurement.
As a Star Wars agnostic, I'll weigh in that The Force Awakens was quite entertaining. I was pleasantly surprised. As for acting, I think both Harrison Ford and Adam Driver were superb, while Domhnall Gleeson unfortunately miscast. Also kind of sad to see Oscar Isaac fade into the woodwork. I expected Ford to be phoning it in, but he actually seemed to bestir himself into giving a wonderful performance - I can see Ford competing with Stallone for the nostalgia vote. Adam Driver's incredible performance will probably be overlooked, also he has limited screen time.
is that so wrong -- i didn't want anyone or anything nominated from the prequels... but I do think Ian McDiarmid was awesome in Return of the Jedi for exactly the reasons you're saying.
Carmen girl, NO.
Awarding Star Wars the Oscar for best picture over Annie Hall would be as dreadful as the actual win by Rocky over Network.
Just because something is very popular, highly successful, and eventually spawned a ton of sequels doen't mean that it deserves BP.
Still enraged about that mediocre Rocky win and would have been like that too if the case is for Star Wars.
The awesome Star War Movie and the Special Edition Notebook is rocking altogether all across the globe.