April Foolish Predictions: Direction, Costumes, Cinematography, Sets!
Wednesday, April 29, 2015 at 2:40PM 
The April Foolish Predictions probably won't be quite finished by April's end, damnit! So we'll have to save four categories (Actresses and Screenplays) for May 1st. Blame Nathaniel's BFF who has demanded a Marvel marathon which starts very soon and which will then usurp a good chunk of the next 24 hours of Nathaniel's life. Since the bestie rarely wants to play movie games, Nathaniel obliges. Nathaniel also talks about himself in the third person for which he apologizes.
But while we're talking Oscar predictions -- even deferred Oscar predictions - let's talk Visual Categories and Best Director. Since more charts are now up!
DIRECTOR
This question will horrify the Birdman haters (they are depressingly legion) but could Alejandro González Iñárritu manage back-to-back Oscars for direction? It's only happened twice before, both times in the 1940s (John Ford in 1940/1941 and Joseph L Mankiewicz in 1949/1950), but since The Revenant will be such an about face from Birdman the fire could still be burning for honoring the Mexican auteur's work. Especially since Oscar has never ignored one of his films. Between the five titles there are 21 nominations and 5 wins so if the new picture becomes a perfect average it's looking at 4 nominations and an Oscar somewhere. Other previous winners that might be in play are Spielberg, Hooper, Howard, Zemeckis, Beatty or Boyle. And will David O. Russell or Quentin Tarantino ever actually win Best Director?
Newbies? On a whim I'm going to predict Denis Villeneuve who I've enjoyed for a long time and who seems very proud of Sicario (his FBI vs Cartel drama led by Emily Blunt) and whose career seems about to explode post Prisoners. If civil rights period drama Suffragette (Sarah Gavron) or The 33 (Patricia Riggen) are good enough might we finally have another female director nominated?
COSTUME DESIGN
There are a three potential double dippers this year from Oscar darlings Sandy Powell (Cinderella & Carol) and Jacqueline Durran (Pan & MacBeth) to Jane Petrie (you're saying "who?" but you'll know her by the end of the year since she went from relative unknown to suddenly prolific with four period pieces Suffragette, Jane Got a Gun, '71, and Genius which will all be released in 2015 in the States if Genius gets finished and gets distribution in time.
Elsewhere we have to wonder if the very talented long time costume designer Daniel Orlandi (Trumbo) is ever going to score his first nomination. And can I just say how amusing I find it that the great Jenny Beavan who has only ever been nominated for what some might derisively call 'masterpiece theater' style dramas costumed Mad Max: Fury Road this year? That's too fun!
PRODUCTION DESIGN, EDITING, CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cinematography could be a murderer's row of great again since Deakins, Lubezki, Kaminski, Deschanel and more all have projects this year. As for the rest and the general overview - i made small adjusments to picture and supporting actor as well due to rethink of craft categories and the hunch that Sicario might really be something with Blunt and Villeneuve both still rising -- check out the all chart index
As always, your comments are not just welcome but implored. Let's try the wisdom of crowds. What are you sensing at this extremely early date?
Reader Comments (11)
The text for Del Toro in the chart actually refers to Kyle Chandler. :)
I think you forgot to remove Kyle Chandler's little write up for Del Toro!
You seem to be really high on Brooklyn. I wonder if a female led romance could break out beyond craft categories.
As for the directors, I think David O. Russell could be higher. Joy is apparently not a biopic and is being shown around as darker than you would think (or at least in comparison to the title). Voters tend to not go with fluff in this category, so this might work in his favor.
Cinematography seems great again this year. I can see Lubeszki winning for consistently stepping up his game. Poor Deakins!
Lastly, I think Star Wars is going to kill it with the Production Design.
Is that gentleman your boyfriend?
Three months ago, I was utterly convinced that Far From the Madding Crowd was going to win Best Costume Design. After seeing some pics from Carol, I feel it's probably unlikely. But I'm still totally on-board with it getting a nomination. It's period (and not only that, but Victorian-- always a plus), the film is visually beautiful (another selling point), and her riding jacket is AMAZING. I want it... bad.
Nat: Why do you think Villenueve is inevitable for Oscar buzz? Neither of his English movies so far are really more than B grade. Also, as far as this goes: Even the two most action oriented cop movie to get major Oscar acceptance (The French Connection and Training Day) are still focused on perceivably normal cop stuff relative to the moral compass of the cop involved. Sicario's CONCEPT amounts to a female cop flat-out taking mercs with her to Mexico to help act out a Rambo fantasy, which means they're already behind the 8-ball as far as "politically okay to like" goes, especially in the modern climate that's getting hyper critical of police to begin with.
/3rtful - no, that's my bestie.
Do you think Sandy Powell has called Colleen Atwood to sign on to some random late-in-the-year project to help her chances at winning? Maybe rush Peregrine's Home for Peculiars or something?
Inarritu won't even get nominated for Best Director, much less win. In the past 40 years, the only people who've managed to follow up first-time wins for Best Director with subsequent Best Director nominations are basically legends (okay, and Ron Howard). And none of them did it the year after they won the Oscar.
Besides, the directing branch is snooty, and I'll bet its members were none too pleased to see him walk off with three Oscars in February. They aren't going to be keen to nominate him again, so soon.
Suzanne, I know what you're saying, but they obviously really like this dude. Nearly all of his films have gotten major nominations. And he won Best Director for a particularly ballsy work. Clint was nommed two years after winning, and I think this is a similar situation here. JMO.
Suzanne-Barry Levinson and Robert Benton are hardly what you'd consider legends. In fact, Inarritu has history on his side (albeit not with a nomination immediately afterwards). The only people in the past forty years to not receive a Best Director nod after having won the trophy AND winning on what wasn't his first directing nomination were Sydney Pollack, Bernardo Bertolucci, and Peter Jackson. Pollack would have gotten nominated if he would have produced and directed several films (he was nominated twice for Best Picture in the Aughts), Bertolucci only really had one major film afterwards that was in contention, and we all know what happened with Peter Jackson. Odds are definitely strong for another Inarritu nomination, perhaps this year.
Dear Nathaniel,
have you forgotten to send Pfeiffer her best wishes because of yesterday?
It was her birthday!!! That is a first forgetting in years...