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Wednesday
Sep302015

6 Questions. Best Actress / Supporting Actress Races

With the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress (or "Best Actress Pt 2" if the category fraud forces have their way!) charts updated, all Oscar charts are now up to date. Next update is...? Well, we'll see. But October tends to be instructive. Here are question prompts for the comments after you've checked out the charts.

1. Will it help to be the first FYC screeners out?
Blythe Danner (72) who carries I'll See You in My Dreams and Lily Tomlin (76) who drives Grandma already have screeners out. I can't wait to watch both again. I'd hold them in my hands to prove my eagerness for you but then how could I type? As previously expressed in "either/or" paranoia (The Martian vs. Mad Max or Truth vs. Spotlight situations) "either/or" is often a false lose-lose game. But it will be interesting to see how much room the Academy has for stellar older women nonetheless. Speaking of...

2. Older Titans or Fresh Excitements?
For the senior set, there's also Charlotte Rampling (69) in 45 Years but she's risking being the last person out of the gate, as Marion Cotillard tried (successfully) in a much thinner field last year.  Even if Oscar decides it wants all fresh young things this year -- and there are plenty of them with Saoirse Ronan and Alicia Vikander leading that particular pack -- and none of the enduring thespians end up nominated how refreshing is it that we have three senior women in the running this year whose names are not Mirren or Streep or Dench?  Answer: very! 

3. How can we ever stop Category Fraud?
Alicia Vikander is The Danish Girl (but, yes, so is Eddie Redmayne so it's a perfect title) UPDATE: But the studio has confimed to us that she's running in supporting. The same is true for Rooney Mara who is 100% definitively absolutely totally inarguably a lead in Carol (there should be no doubt as to how we feel) no matter what the campaign strategists claim. I firmly believe both Mara & Blanchett could be nominated if pushed as a box set in Carol, a la Thelma & Louise... if Thelma & Louise had been excited about bedding each other on their road trips instead of, say, Brad Pitt.  Romantic dramas, requited or unrequited, usually require two leads... it's the nature of the beast. Pretending Mara is supporting in Carol is like pretending that Kate Winslet supported Jim Carrey in Eternal Sunshine or Leonardo DiCaprio in Titanic (or vice versa) or like pretending Blanchett supported Dench in Notes on a--- oh ah. DAMNIT!

With Mara & Vikander both in high rising star demand and Oscar's history of LOVING to crown young beautiful actresses near the beginning of big careers, Supporting Actress could well be Best Actress 2 with these two leads battling it out for that win. IF Oscar is okay with the fraud that is... which they usually are, yes. (sigh)

4. Among the actual supporting players/characters this year who could win traction? 
Category Fraud tends to be a bigger problem in years when memorable actual supporting characters show up late in the year. And 2015 is definitely having that problem. Usually I have a full list by this point that I'm eager to hold on to but it's been a weak year for female parts in the ensemble. Case in point: It's exciting to think of Elisabeth Moss squaring off with Blanchett in Truth, but she only has a few lines here and there. And Sarah Paulson is as wonderful as everyone has come to expect in Carol but as with 12 Years a Slave, other much more famous or less famous actresses have much larger roles in her movies. When will a filmmaker give her THE key female role, supporting or otherwise, in a movie? She's earned it.

Jane Fonda has just one scene in Youth (and a flash cut from another scene) but boy is it a doozy. Half of the movie points right at this scene.

I'm currently predicting Jane Fonda in Youth, Julie Walters in Brooklyn, and Jennifer Jason Leigh in Hateful Eight for the more traditional type of strong candidates, making big marks in well liked movies either by way of the script blazingly focusing on them or by way of scene stealing or by way of being the key woman in a man's movie. All three of these are risky bets for different reasons (Leigh mostly because people haven't yet seen the film ... and because she has historically proven easy for the Academy to ignore even when she had juicy big roles) but the supporting actress race is looking like the last of the four acting competitions that will come into proper focus.

5. Who do you think we're underestimating and which chart position do you think is spot on?
Sound off. 

6. Remember that New Best Actress Hierarchy we published in February?
Jane Fonda (#6), Cate Blanchett (#11), Maggie Smith (#12) and Kate Winslet (#18) could all move up a rung or two this year if Oscar voters embrace their latest roles.  

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Reader Comments (86)

Not a single black actress contender. Depressing.

I'm emotionally drained from Viola's historic Emmy speech. If they want to honor a nonwhite acting nominee make space for Jason Mitchell in supporting actor for Straight Outta Compton or shut the fuck up about diversity.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

The Hollywood Reporter article mentions that Focus Features has not yet decided which category will compete Alicia Vikander (leading or supporting)
I hope she competes in Leading.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/spotlight-oscar-strategy-focus-supporting-826238

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterHarmodio

Nat why no faith in Allen is it her face work that makes it hard to accept her now or is she this year's Laura Dern

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterMARK

OH Please, don't they give Jennifer Lawrence another nomination, that would be depressing. She already has two nominations too many and that really undeserved oscar.

I love that the "old titans" are part of the conversation right now. Really hoping for Tomlin to get a nomination.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterV.

I cannot believe that Streep has already lost awards traction for Ricki when it was one of her finest performances since Prada.....

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered Commenterjamie

Wait, stop everything! Did you see where Meryl Streep DECLINED to identify as a feminist today? WHILE PROMOTING SUFFRAGETTE.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterHayden W.

Vikander confirmed Supporting by The Playlist team.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterJows

Jows - i'll wait till THR or Variety confirms. THR has not confirmed.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterNATHANIEL R

jamie -- i agree that it's her best in some time but confirming no ampaign and with less box office than she usually gets this is what happens I guess.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Anyone know how Weisz fares in The Lobster and Youth? I hear she's quite good in the latter, but haven't heard much about the former. Any chances she could actually come around and take Fonda's spot for Youth? Ha, wishful thinking, I know...

Then again, the Emmys didn't nominate Fonda... Maybe her luster has lessened after all these years. Eh, could just be she was never well regarded in TV.

Still, back to the topic, Weisz being nominated again would be Heaven. Not even a win, just a nomination (which she should've gotten, imho, for The Deep Blue Sea, despite it not even being her best performance to never be nominated).

Okay, I'm done.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterLucas

Nathaniel, thanks for your reply. I do see your point about Jennifer Jason Leigh not being liked by the Academy, but I also don't really buy the whole "maybe they just don't like her" scenario. Sure she got strong reviews for lots of movies over the years, but if you look closer at her career, she was only firmly in the Oscar conversation in 1994/95 for Mrs. Parker (GG nom, NSFC award) and Georgia (NYFCC award). True, she also won at NYFCC for Miami Blues and Last Exit to Brooklyn in 1990, but neither of those little-seen films had any real Oscar campaign, and in any case she probably split the handful of Oscar votes she received that year. I'd hardly count films like Rush, Single White Female, Washington Square etc. as Oscar snubs because the films themselves never got great reviews, made enough money or drew ANY awards traction, and the same goes for the more recent Margot at the Wedding (there was merely some wishful thinking online that she'd get her first nom for that one, but any early buzz died as soon as the film premiered at TIFF). The fact is, with the exception of Best Director nominee Short Cuts (where none of the cast was nominated), JJL has never been in a well-liked film that was even being considered as a possible Best Picture contender and big Christmas commercial hit. Of course, that doesn't mean she's a sure thing, but I just don't think her history of bad luck with the Academy means as much as many people read into it.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterJade

Genuine question: when was the last time a performer had two major roles in legitimate competition in the same category? I'm thinking Nicole Kidman in 2001 and Leonardo DiCaprio in 2006. Both of whom got a nomination from it. I don't know why they don't just push TRUST to next year if she's that good. Not that I like distributors playing fast and loose with release dates and leaving a movie to sit on a shelf for an entire year, but... I dunno. They could wait for early Summer and release it like BLUE JASMINE and just let the buzz remain there for Cate. To be honest, I'm surprised Disney haven't launched a supporting campain for Blanchett in CINDERELLA.

The category fraud thing is super depressing, but you're right that a year in which nobody is standing up to claim that category in trump the fraudsters. It's obviously not as egregious as Vikander and Mara, but CLOUDS OF SILS MARIA is also hardly a one-woman show. I count Stewart as a co-lead there, too.

I'm still not sure I get ROOM as a big contender. Wasn't SHORT TERM 12 also beloved?

Blythe Danner deserves an * next to her because she has a famous daughter who, like Bruce Dern, can help pimp her out. I feel like that Hollywood cheerleading can really help like when Julia Roberts stumped for Javier Bardem in BIUTIFUL or last year when Jane Fonda came outta the gate for Marion.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

I don't usually like to get involved into topics such as who is getting nominated or who is winning because I feel it's such a dirty game, most often than not, that the whole magic of the Oscars from when I was a teenager or in my early twenties has really dwindled throughout the years. And it's ok not to let the Oscars be part of my love for movies. In fact, it makes me appreciate movies in a more wholesome way, without having to immediately compartmentalize it in categories.
Having said all that, I hope one of my favorite actresses, Jennifer Jason Leigh, creates a character for the ages in The Hateful Eight. If she got recognized for her work, provided it is great, it would be very fair. But then, The Weinsteins will have to decide who to push: fraudulent Mara or Leigh and again, their decision will be based on $$$$, meaning which victory would be more interesting for them, prestige-wise or money-wise.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterMr.Goodbar

Wow, your top 4 Best Actress prediction now are Vikander, Larson, Ronan and Lawrence. Say if you switch the fifth into Mulligan, that would definitely going to be the most youngest average age of Best Actress nominees in Oscar history, wouldn't it? I don't know, you are the stat expert when it comes to Oscars, that would be an interesting (and important) trivia.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterPJ

Nathaniel, you're my rock, but not think Marion Cotillard would have more chances to obtain the nomination in Supporting category? She has received wonderful reviews for her Lady Macbeth and with an appropiate campaign she could get it. What do you think about it?

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterSleyton

Marion is great, but too subtle in MACBETH. And that film's release plan is weird.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

I can't really see any of your 5 choices in Best Actress winning for some reason.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterRyan

As we get closer to the nomination announcements, can you start color-coding the contenders? I loved seeing green (lock), yellow (safe), red (vulnerable), and blue (longshot). And just for fun, I think only Vikander is "yellow" at this point. #2 thru #11 are red, and everyone else is blue.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterBVR

Glenn-Winslet in 2008 is the last time. That admittedly was a strange case where fraud didn't work, but if The Reader hadn't have existed she still would have been in for RR.

I think the most obvious case where they want to run scared is ScarJo in 2003. The last minute switch to supporting for LiT likely cost precious votes over a seemingly surefire nod. That plus Kidman's close call in 2001 seems to have traumatized press agents.

September 30, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterJohn T

John, Scarlet definitely - at least initially, and agreed on costing her votes - but Kate Winslet wasn't campaigned as both. She was campaigned by strongly as lead for RR and supporting for The Reader. It was the Academy who decided it was rightly a load of rubbish.

Of course, in Kidman's case it was a matter of her personal life creating a wave of support that made a performance in a horror movie seem like it would've been possible if it weren't for her role in musical. Two genres not exactly known for producing acting nominations lately! That was a nightmare time to be an Oscar watcher.

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

I heard the Jane Fonda role is a brief trainwreck in a really subpar film. Does Oscar really want to give her a we later regret third Oscar? I hope not. Give it to whoever is best and has not one. I am sick of this Julia Louis-Dreyfus shit.

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterJono

PS, I thought Streep said she was a humanist, which encompasses feminism and actually evolves the concept into something workable (and easily relatable). I generally have to say that media is now dumber, and low-brain outfits like The Daily Beast that try and turn this into a controversy don't even have the bandwidth to allow comments or dialogue! Score one for Nathaniel.

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterJono

I am a humanist too. No Jane Fonda on my yard. That broad is full of herself.

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterTom Ford

@Lucas I've seen both Youth and The Lobster. Weisz has a great monologue in Youth (automatic Oscar clip). If the movie is broadly supported, she could get a nomination. Fonda is Hollywood legend and her cameo is showy! I think it's Fonda first; Weisz second if movie goes over in a big way (Pic, Dir, supp actor for Keitel).

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterJoseph W

Boring comment, but every now and then I want to thank you, Nathaniel, for the work you're doing on the site. Predictions, reviews, thinkpieces, podcasts etc.

Still hoping Dench will be a surprise contender for Tulip Fever!

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterJames T

Seeing the words Jane Fonda and trainwreck in the same sentence doesn't compute for me.

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterSawyer

Outside of Peter Finch for Network, this whole campaigning for Oscars rubs me the wrong way. A big part of me feels that the work should stand for itself. It's demeaning to grovel for an award. You either get it or you don't. Have a little dignity. I give Finch a pass because he was a veteran AND he totally deserved it in a very competitive year. And I adore him.

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

Jono -- if you hear "subpar" and "train wreck" about a movie that has a ton of fans already and quite a liftoff at Cannes, just remind yourself that everyone has an opinion. There will be people who think this movie is awful. I don't suspect those people will be the bulk of Academy members.

brookesboy -- it's always been thus... at least in the past 20 some years. and there was always campaigning before that, too. it just wasn't quite as much of a circus / cottage industry.

October 1, 2015 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

@Hayden W.
"Wait, stop everything! Did you see where Meryl Streep DECLINED to identify as a feminist today? WHILE PROMOTING SUFFRAGETTE."

She's for gender-equality, so much is for sure.
I still think a lot of people don't like (the word) "feminists" because they think they want women to triumph over men.
Anyway, it's the same Lady that insulted Walt Disney as sexist/racist a year ago and still got in for a Disney movie.

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterSonja

TWC seem to have no scruples when it comes to Category Fraud. They're like the Tom Brady of Oscar season. Anything for the win. Weird how Kate Winslet won a SAG for The Reader - then TWC immediately bumped her up to Lead for the win. Nicole Kidman - Lead for The Hours? (I personally thought Meryl Streep was the Lead - but, since 'Kidman is due,' TWC pounced into Lead for the win. They're probably doing the John Travolta/Samuel L. Jackson (Pulp Fiction) way of getting the nominations they want and not cancelling each other out. (Two wins are certainly better ($$$) not zero.) When Carol rolls closer, I expect that all the press will be 'Cate, Cate, Cate...the A-lister, and, oh yeah, that 'supporting person/up-and-comer,' Miss Mara.) Not fooling anybody. I hope that Academy voters (not owned by TWC) will not the common sense to vote in the right category.

***You touched on Thelma & Lousie (2 Leads). Did either expect to win against Jodie Foster? That was a case of togetherness. Thinking back at others:
Terms of Endearment - 2 Leads - Winger clearly could've won had she been Supporting, but she herself want to go Lead. Was this a Shirley or Debra movie - or both? Did she even think that she had a chance when it was clearly MacLaine's time?
The Turning Point - 2 Lead nominations - could this have been Shirley's time? Was this a Shirley or Bancroft movie - or both?
All About Eve - the original split - 2 Leads - Anne Baxter easily could've won in Supporting. Having recently won BSA for The Razor's Edge - did she feel that she was really for the big leagues? Is this a Bette Lead or a Baxter Lead - or both? Did she really cause a split? At times, I feel that Bette could've won if it was just her - other times, I feel that Gloria Swanson would've won. (Certainly not Judy Holliday).

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterTOM

TOM--regarding The Turning Point, I think both ladies deserved their nominations. But Anne's performance is brilliant, whereas Shirley's is very, very good. My two cents.

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

TOM: I'd say Streep and Kidman both felt relatively like Leads in The Hours. I'd personally have a rule set demanding outsider arbitration and individual press releases laying down the news for every eligible film allowing for up to 5 for a single picture (5 leads has only happened twice (The Misfits and The Breakfast Club) to my knowledge, but those two times are still enough for me to want to leave it open as an option), depending on the structure of the movie up for review. Let's go through my guess of what 100% honest lead designations would be for the 2015 chart:

The Revenant: 1 (Leo DiCaprio)
Spotlight: 0-2 (Possibilities for Ruffalo and Keaton), depending on your thought process
Steve Jobs: 1 (Michael Fassbender)
The Danish Girl: 2 (Eddie Redmayne and Alicia Vikander)
Sicario: 1 (Emily Blunt)
Inside Out: 1-3 (Definite for Amy Poehler, arguable for Phyllis Smith and Kaitlin Diaz), depending on your thought process
Brooklyn: 1 (Saorise Ronan)
Room: 2 (Brie Larson, Jacob Tremblay)
Youth: 1-2 (Definite for Michael Caine, possible for Harvey Keitel), depending on your thought process
Carol: 2 (Cate Blanchett, Rooney Mara)
The Hateful Eight: 0
Bridge of Spies: 1 (Tom Hanks)
The Martian: 1 (Matt Damon)
Joy: 1 (Jennifer Lawrence)
Mad Max: Fury Road: 2 (Tom Hardy, Charlize Theron)
Son of Saul: 1 (Geza Rohrig)
Suffragette: 1 (Carey Mulligan)
In the Heart of the Sea: 1 (Chris Hemsworth)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens: 2 (John Boyega and Daisy Ridley)
Beasts of No Nation: 1-2 (Definite for Abraham Attah, possible for Idris Elba), depending on your thought process
The Big Short: Unknown
Black Mass: 1 (Johnny Depp)
Our Brand is Crisis: 1 (Sandra Bullock)
Creed: 1 (Michael B. Jordan)
The Secret in Their Eyes: 1 (Chiwetel Ejiofor)
The Walk: 1 (Joseph Gordon-Levitt)
Spectre: 1 (Daniel Craig)
Straight Outta Compton: 3 (Jason Mitchell, Corey Hawkins, O'Shea Jackson Jr.)

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterVolvagia

Volvagia - I'm a firm believer in only 3 leads (4 in a film where there are only 4 characters, such as Closer or Carnage). More and it becomes too diluted.

Please don't name Kidman and Streep as leads, while casually ignoring Julianne Moore's category fraud in the same year, They're either all leads or all supporting.

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered Commenterkermit_the_frog

kermit: I'd go with all leads, based on that movie's structure. Sorry for not clarifying. Do you think I did well with what this year's designations would shake out as if lying about it were stopped?

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterVolvagia

It was so silly when Kate Winslet was going supporting AND the young boy was, too. That movie didn't have a lead performer according to TWC.

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

It will be ideal if Cate is nom for Truth & Weinstein juz focus on promoting Mara as lead. BUT, since it's alr confirmed that Rooney & Vikander will be goin supportin, I tink its time we hav to come to term w it

My ideal for now will be: Actress: Blanchett/Mulligan/Blunt/Tomlin/Rampling, with Larson as the dark horse (No more JLaw or Bullock plsssssssss!! Lol)
Supp Actress: Mara/Winslet/Vikander/JJL/Banks, w Fonda or Steward as the dark horse.

Think abt this way, at least Mara will stand a betta chance of winnin in the supp cat, rather than lead. Q now is whether Cate will be nom for Carol or Truth ( A juicy discussion)

October 1, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterClaran
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