6 Questions. Best Actress / Supporting Actress Races
Wednesday, September 30, 2015 at 11:00AM With the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress (or "Best Actress Pt 2" if the category fraud forces have their way!) charts updated, all Oscar charts are now up to date. Next update is...? Well, we'll see. But October tends to be instructive. Here are question prompts for the comments after you've checked out the charts.
1. Will it help to be the first FYC screeners out?
Blythe Danner (72) who carries I'll See You in My Dreams and Lily Tomlin (76) who drives Grandma already have screeners out. I can't wait to watch both again. I'd hold them in my hands to prove my eagerness for you but then how could I type? As previously expressed in "either/or" paranoia (The Martian vs. Mad Max or Truth vs. Spotlight situations) "either/or" is often a false lose-lose game. But it will be interesting to see how much room the Academy has for stellar older women nonetheless. Speaking of...
2. Older Titans or Fresh Excitements?
For the senior set, there's also Charlotte Rampling (69) in 45 Years but she's risking being the last person out of the gate, as Marion Cotillard tried (successfully) in a much thinner field last year. Even if Oscar decides it wants all fresh young things this year -- and there are plenty of them with Saoirse Ronan and Alicia Vikander leading that particular pack -- and none of the enduring thespians end up nominated how refreshing is it that we have three senior women in the running this year whose names are not Mirren or Streep or Dench? Answer: very!
3. How can we ever stop Category Fraud?
Alicia Vikander is The Danish Girl (but, yes, so is Eddie Redmayne so it's a perfect title) UPDATE: But the studio has confimed to us that she's running in supporting. The same is true for Rooney Mara who is 100% definitively absolutely totally inarguably a lead in Carol (there should be no doubt as to how we feel) no matter what the campaign strategists claim. I firmly believe both Mara & Blanchett could be nominated if pushed as a box set in Carol, a la Thelma & Louise... if Thelma & Louise had been excited about bedding each other on their road trips instead of, say, Brad Pitt. Romantic dramas, requited or unrequited, usually require two leads... it's the nature of the beast. Pretending Mara is supporting in Carol is like pretending that Kate Winslet supported Jim Carrey in Eternal Sunshine or Leonardo DiCaprio in Titanic (or vice versa) or like pretending Blanchett supported Dench in Notes on a--- oh ah. DAMNIT!
With Mara & Vikander both in high rising star demand and Oscar's history of LOVING to crown young beautiful actresses near the beginning of big careers, Supporting Actress could well be Best Actress 2 with these two leads battling it out for that win. IF Oscar is okay with the fraud that is... which they usually are, yes. (sigh)
4. Among the actual supporting players/characters this year who could win traction?
Category Fraud tends to be a bigger problem in years when memorable actual supporting characters show up late in the year. And 2015 is definitely having that problem. Usually I have a full list by this point that I'm eager to hold on to but it's been a weak year for female parts in the ensemble. Case in point: It's exciting to think of Elisabeth Moss squaring off with Blanchett in Truth, but she only has a few lines here and there. And Sarah Paulson is as wonderful as everyone has come to expect in Carol but as with 12 Years a Slave, other much more famous or less famous actresses have much larger roles in her movies. When will a filmmaker give her THE key female role, supporting or otherwise, in a movie? She's earned it.
Jane Fonda has just one scene in Youth (and a flash cut from another scene) but boy is it a doozy. Half of the movie points right at this scene.
I'm currently predicting Jane Fonda in Youth, Julie Walters in Brooklyn, and Jennifer Jason Leigh in Hateful Eight for the more traditional type of strong candidates, making big marks in well liked movies either by way of the script blazingly focusing on them or by way of scene stealing or by way of being the key woman in a man's movie. All three of these are risky bets for different reasons (Leigh mostly because people haven't yet seen the film ... and because she has historically proven easy for the Academy to ignore even when she had juicy big roles) but the supporting actress race is looking like the last of the four acting competitions that will come into proper focus.
5. Who do you think we're underestimating and which chart position do you think is spot on?
Sound off.
6. Remember that New Best Actress Hierarchy we published in February?
Jane Fonda (#6), Cate Blanchett (#11), Maggie Smith (#12) and Kate Winslet (#18) could all move up a rung or two this year if Oscar voters embrace their latest roles.
Reader Comments (86)
OH MY GOD! My head exploded with that pic! Jane Fonda as Mae West. Love it!
I keep reading everwhere "Youngest best actress lineup ever" and my heart bleeds for Rampling and Tomlin.
I think you're right to promote Fonda-that feels like one of those "moment" nominations that randomly happen on occasion for legends. And I love the callout for Paulson-I've been waiting to hear what someone thought of her in Carol.
I also am curious why you're down on Our Brand is Crisis-it's potentially going to be a big hit (Bullock being a draw and all that), but she didn't warrant a spot n the charts (other than the note at the Tier 4. Do you think the Academy feels 2 nods and a win is enough? I think the producers, theoretical box office, and subject matter make her more of a threat than Jolie, Streep, or even Smith.
I'm rooting so hard for Tomlin. Grandma is the best movie I've seen so far this year. I wish it could get traction in Screenplay, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress, too.
Not an exciting season on paper which concerns me. Lawrence could repeat. It would be too soon for me considering her Streep-like hold for actresses under 35 with the industry and the public. I want Rampling nominated. She deserves to be recognized as an Oscar nominee.
Fonda would be great and one scene wonders have worked before Hello Beatrice Straight RIP,she'll be out there promoting herself come awards season and I for one am v happy,from the trailer it looks as if she has more than 1 scene,an airplane rant was mentioned in a review.
Nat is her cameo really all that?
1. FYC screeners really bug me. It's like the high school kid running for class president who hands out M&Ms with his/her name on them. Plus, much as I enjoyed seeing Danner in a movie, I'm in the minority to think that this performance is Oscar-worthy. Haven't seen Grandma yet, but if the idea to send screeners for women whose names people recognize, then I guess that type of campaign should work in their favor.
2. Good to know that there are some juicy rolls out there for women of ANY age.
3. No, we can't, but we can dream. Until some legitimate rules are in place for what constitutes "lead" and "supporting", studios/producers can campaign any damn way they want.
4. If I recall from the book, Julie Walters' role as Mrs. Kehoe in Brooklyn was kind of a big plot point. Anyway, I'm pulling for her just because I've loved her recent supporting turns. But I do love JJL from the Hateful Eight trailer.
5. Carey Mulligan in Suffragette. I think I would swap her out with Lawrence in the top tier. I didn't love Far from the Madding Crowd and of course haven't seen Suffragette, but she's kind of on the voting folks' radar right now. Also, Rooney Mara back to Lead, and in top tier, along with Cate. It would be so ridiculous putting her up for Supporting.
6. Of the 34, only 18 are still with us (if I did the math correctly). I'm still waiting for Close and Sarandon to get some new good roles. And Sigourney Weaver, who wasn't on that original list (since she only had 3 noms).
Could Chastain rise if Crimson Peak is a big hit?
Suzanne: She should get in over Vikander if the Academy would only dare touch The Danish Girl, anyway. It's a Felicity Jones role and they only have five slots. If you really WANT to nominate Vikander, Academy, go for Ex Machina. If not, just give Tomlin the nomination and don't waste a slot.
Is Cynthia Nixon in James White a case of falling through the independent cracks?
Mark -- it's just one scene. The airplane bit is a couple of seconds, a flash cut within another scene. But her one scene is a big scene, fairly long, and the climax of one of the movie's two plots.
Suzanne -- i really loved Tomlin in Grandma so i share your feeling. It's done pretty well at the box office too. I do think it could still happen. It just depends on several other factors and whether or not she'll campaign (as such nominations always do in crowded years)
Paul -- i know they want to push that movie hard but we'll see. I am anxious to see it but i left it off the charts for now due to that minuscule indie profile.
That Fonda cameo is the ONE thing I am waiting for,i love the few seconds of her in the trailer,i keep watching it,i heard she has 4 mins screen time,is that enough.
I HATED Fonda in Youth, but then again, I hated the movie. It wasn't necessarily her fault, but I came away embarrassed for her in that role. Especially that plane scene... eesh.
And I thought I had heard from another pundit that Focus confirmed Vikander in supporting so she wouldn't interfere with Mulligan in Suffragette. Hmm...
Regarding category fraud, I'd love to see bloggers list their predictions according to how performance should actually be placed and then let the Academy figure it out. I feel like when all Oscar coverage starts to refer to Rooney Mara as "supporting," for example, then it removes any ambiguity in the mind of Academy members and allows them to fall for the distributors' ploy to game the system.
Of course, then prognosticators would have to risk worsening their Oscar predix, which many seem unwilling to do.
I think you're very close. In supporting I have Fonda, Winslet, Walters, Leigh, and Mara. In lead I have Larson, Mulligan, Tomlin, Vikander, and Ronan. The actors I fear I'm underestimating are all based on the x factors of box office and critics awards. Basically noise that won't be drowned out. If Room is going to be as popular as I think it will be, both with critics and viewers, then Joan Allen has to be considered a contender. If critics groups remember Kristen Stewart in their best-of's, then watch out for her.
Also watch out for Charlize Theron. If Mad Max and her performance end up on may year-end lists, as I think it will, then her buzz might be enough to infiltrate a very fluid Best Actress group.
Could Blanchett cancel herself out with Carol and Truth?
That would be the most akward thing ever happened.... but since neither SPC nor Weinstein is campaigning her in Supporting for either movie, I expect some dirty-behind-the-doors-war between these studios. Or SPC get their mind together, forget Blanchett for Truth and hopefully campaign the goddamn hell out for Tomlin.
Well, if they are gonna category fraud, I wish Cate Blanchett goes supporting for Carol instead so that she gets the double nods again :D
Golden - I'm really surprised that's not been considered. She has a better chance than any other actress today IMO, even Streep, of pulling this off on a regular basis.
When actors have multiple leading roles out (DiCaprio for Blood Diamond and The Departed, Winslet for The Reader and Revolutionary Road) getting a nod for SOMETHING is rarely a problem. Particularly when they're A-List. I think Blanchett's a shoo-in for something, and probably for Carol. But who knows!
Sonja -- that would be the win-win... but i can never understand SPC's campaigns.
Jordan -- it's possible but since pundits say things about these things all the time (sometimes with studio backing sometimes without) i try to ignore it until i hear "official" if you know what i mean.
Golden/Sawyer -- if you believe all the ruckus last month about Carol and Cate than that was considered and quickly shot down. I mean either way the CAROL thing is ridiculous because the entire movie is about the two of them (they each get scenes without the other but they're both equally important to the narrative) and every other role in the movie is very small because it's such a love story movie.
Sawyer - I think because Rooney Mara's already won Cannes Best Actress so she's pretty much a front-runner in the supporting category. They (Harvey and Rooney's team) probably want to secure that spot instead of promoting her to lead and not win.
I kinda wish Truth would be delayed for next year instead so that Cate would get her 8th nomination :(
1. I think only Tomlin can benefit from early screeners, but tbh i only can see it scoring Globe and minor critics nods
2. IFC needs a really clever and agressive campaign in order to make Rampling happen. The movie is going well in the UK and i'm certain BAFTA will embrace it
3. As far as i'm concerned both Vikander and Mara are going supporting (even Variety reported this a few days ago). The thirst is real.
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh... if Hateful eight delivers, she will be a strong candidate (and also she's in Anomalisa, which helps a little)
5. Maggie Smith, perhaps? the role is a juicy one, if u think about it and she's respected enough (and not to mention the final season of Downton Abbey is coming and that might help her)
6. I need Sissy Spacek to move up to the Supreme Goddess rank
I agree that Bullock should be much higher on your chart, but your five seem very possible. Is Ronan getting the buzz she needs though? As silly as it feels to stump for Blunt when they've never given her enough credit, if Sicario is a major BP player, she might get in. She seems like the kind of actress they'll want to nominate at some point.
Supporting Actress is so wide open. If Stewart gets in, I think she has a great shot at winning. It'll just be a matter of voters getting to that movie or not, but I could see her being championed by the critics. I wouldn't be surprised if Streep stole a nod for Suffragette, especially if she makes a strong impression. I started the year thinking an ingenue would win Actress, originally assuming Carey Mulligan, but now I'm wondering about Brie Larson.
Or maybe Carol is this year's Dallas Buyers Club? Winning Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress (and Best Makeup and Hairstyling?) :D
Maybe voters will put Mara in lead where she belongs? Lawrence and Mulligan take next two spots. Larson and Ronan compete for the fifth, with Rampling a dark horse to snatch it too. If they saw and loved Amour, which was much darker and more foreign than 45 Years, Rampling seems like an even more sure bet. The Academy loves their starlets but they're also quite old!
Also, Weinstein would play a smart movie for launching an aggressive supporting campaign for Marion in Macbeth. Raves for her accompany nearly every review I read, and she's having an obvious moment with the Academy and critics.
eurocheese -- the only reason i dropped Streep from the chart is that i have talked to people who've seen it and they SWEAR to me that her entire performance is in the trailer. so it's the tiniest of cameos.
golden -- right now i am just cursing the weinsteins because i don't want anything interfering with my love for Carol and this will. it's this beautiful delicate romantic drama and they're going to ruining it with gross greedy lies and fuck yous to character actresses. UGH.
It's surprising to see you so down on Rampling after seeing the performance. She's the most raved actress of the festival season and critics will go crazy for her.
It's understandable you want to fight category frauds but even if Vikander is placed in lead, there's no way she's leading the pack. I'd put Larson/Rampling/Blanchett ahead with ease considering their movies/reviews. Then there's Ronan/Mulligan/Vikander/Tomlin which is probably why Focus will stick with the supporting placement and do their best to make Mulligan a strong contender.
I am a HUGE fan of Beatrice Straight's Oscar win. Brilliant. I think her scene clocked in at 5 minutes (her only other scene is one line and she's waking up hubby). If anyone else can do it, it's Jane. I am still pissed that Anne Bancroft didn't get a nod for her amazing single scene in Malice. That was spectacularious.
Evan -- agreed. that's why i put "CATEGORY FRAUD ALERT" on the charts so that people are continually reminded.
Jows -- if you followed my reviews and such you'll know i am crazy in love with Rampling's performance and that's about where she was on the last chart update so nothing has changed really. a totally worthy performance but i do question the sanity of trying december for an actress who has a) never been nominated for b) a film that is quiet and c) in a year with 15 other valid choices of actresses that will have already have made their mark by the time her film comes out and d) releaseing it aroudn the time that people will likely only be interested in talking about Star Wars, Jennifer Lawrence, and Tarantino.
Yeah, Nat. I'm invited to a screening of .James White tonight but can't attend.
Jows -- one more thing about Vikander's placement. I guess i should clarify this on the charts though i say this all the time so i thought people understood. Unlike most pundits i have zero interest in claiming who is going to win before nominations. My charts are always about who i think has the best shot at being nominated. (until nominations and then it changes)
And Vikander, unless the reports of supporting are true, has zero strikes against her which is why she's at #1. people will love the performance, it's the exact kind or role oscar voters love, she has had an amazing year. all voters will see the movie. and she has none of the problems of her competitors like Blanchett who will lose some of her own votes to another movie or Larson who will have a bigger struggle to get people to see her movie, or Ronan who is in a less baity movie and so on.
NAT: Changing the topic. I wanted to let you know that Argentina selected The Clan on Monday. Strangely, it was reported by The Hollywood Reporter but not by Variety.
I know that you've interviewed Brie Larson and long supported/followed her work. And loved her in Room! But that placement seems so irrationally generous given the film. In such a crowded year (when was our last crowded Best Actress year?) Larson is exactly the kind of contender who'll struggle to get a Globe nod.
I think Larson is in because I believe Room will be one of the most talked-about films of the year. It's a popular book that will only get more popular when the movie is mentioned. It's a fascinating tale that will reach the watercoolers of America. I'm really betting it's this year's Slumdog Millionaire.
Oh thank god people are (sorta) talking about Cynthia Nixon in James White. She is phe-nomenal in it. Though not sure if it's a showy enough performance for Ampass - and it's certainly not a showy enough film for them - though it is excellent.
I hope everyone from this blog runs out to see it though. It's really exciting filmmaking
I don't see how Rampling gets in. If Jessica Chastain couldn't manage a nom for a late December release...
At least she'll have the BAFTA.
Hayden -- but people LOVE the film. It won people's choice in Toronto and she's excellent in it.
Marcos - thanks.
Not a single black actress contender. Depressing.
(You really should put Regina Case in The Second Mother in your charts. She's foreign but she's Anna Magnani-like, absolutely arresting. Just watch out)
Thanks for the reply Nat. I still dunno about Vikander cause The Danish Girl didn't really set the world on fire at the festival circuit. I was expecting underwhelming reviews but the public didn't really care either so that's why I think her position as an Actress contender is shaky, not to mention Redmayne will be the face of the movie/internal Focus competition/her personal reviews are still weaker than Rampling/Larson/Blanchettx2.
About Rampling, the release date won't matter in the end. IF the critics go to bat for her, the screener will be essential viewing. The movie's small but building buzz since Berlin where it won Best Actress/Best Actor. The downside is that she won't campaign but Haigh and Courtenay will do the rounds with the backing of a top awards publicist. If Larson takes NY/LA then I'll be worried but I'm pretty confident.
Right now, your best actress five feels right (unless Vikander goes supporting which could definitely happen as it's less competitive). As you say only Leigh sticks out in supporting because we haven't seen it yet - otherwise pop in McAdams maybe. The other four in supporting feel right at this moment in time too. So great predictions for Sept 30!
I haven't even seen the film, but I think Cotillard in Macbeth is the most likely nomination in supporting actress.
Jennifer Jason Leigh HAS to be nominated this year. So what if the Academy have ignored her before? Those snubs happened when she was still a young actress in low-budget indie "star vehicles" like Mrs. Parker and Georgia, where she had difficult/unsympathetic characters and faced tough Best Actress competition, and suffered from being in films that weren't generally loved as a whole by the Academy.
This year she's in a very different boat: the 53-year-old Hollywood veteran, making a high-profile comeback, playing the (supposedly juicy, scene-stealing) lone female role in an eagerly awaited Tarantino film that will be released at Christmas, will *probably* get good reviews and make a lot of money (thus ensuring it will be very widely seen by the Academy). And while the film hasn't been seen by many people yet, it HAS gotten a very positive response at test screenings, with several IMDb and Reddit posters noting Leigh's Oscar chances in particular. I also think that Anomalisa could help her win some critics' awards for both films, thereby boosting her chances of a nom for The Hateful Eight. She currently makes a lot more sense than Rachel McAdams, Joan Allen or even Julie Walters (who will need Brooklyn to be really huge in order to snag a coattail nomination).
cal roth: I think Nat viewing Michael B. Jordan (for a sight unseen film that's probably just a "good commercial play" movie that'll keep Coogler's momentum rolling and repair Jordan a little after that Fant4stic disaster) as closer to a nom than Jason Mitchell OR Will Smith is equally depressing, and FAR stranger.
Jows -- i hope you're right! I just think release dates always matter. The only reason Marion Cotillard could pull that off last year is people were dying for a fifth nominee they could really get behind. There won't be any feeling of emptiness this year so you've gotta be in the conversation early. She might be given the festival response but it seems like a dangerous game to me.
Cash -- i'm sure she'll be great in it but they seem to have no faith whatsoever in the movie given the way they're planning to release it. I'd be surprised to see any Oscar play at this point.
Jade - i personally don't see why Julie Walters would need a coattail nomination to make it in for Brooklyn. She's got a really crowd pleasing role in it. I could see her nominated even without a Best Picture nomination (though obviously she'll have trouble making it in if Saoirse is ignored)
as for JJL... it's possible that they just don't like her. Mrs. Parker and Georgia weren't the only roles that she won wild raves for over the years and the industry never felt the need to nominate her despite lots of "best of her generation" notices... but yes, a Tarantino film is a very different thing.
but i official don't trust test screening reviews ever. for some dumb reason i let commenters here convince me that Kyle Chandler was bad in CAROL because of "test screen reviews" and he's awesome in it as he always is. what was i thinking trusting those reports?
At least one person came out of the test screening of Room saying that it was going nowhere fast in the Oscar race.
It's important to remember that test screening news is usually just a singular opinion from the one guy who was brave enough to blab. It's hardly a critical consensus.
Nathaniel - Do you think Chandler has a chance at a Supporting Actor nod? (I love him.)
Volvagia --it's always important to understand context. Jason Mitchell has zero profile with awards bodies and shares his film with several other actors. Michael B Jordan is widely considered to be among the best actors of his generation, is already quite famous, and was in the conversation previously and shaking hands with AMPAS voters for Fruitvale Station and before that he was on the very highly respected Friday Night Lights TV series and other popular TV series, too. Jordan's also already got his next potential awards bait biograhpical civil rights drama lined up ("Just Mercy" from ShortTerm 12's director) and absolutely no one blames him for Fantastic Four. They know who he is. He's in demand. It's difficult to stress enough how important familiarity is. Frankly, I didn't even understand it myself until i started getting invited to Oscar voter events some years ago -- it's a very insular industry and it matters a lot that people know who you are. Momentum matters arguably even more.
as for Concussion... i haven't heard one speck of good "buzz" so we'll see. perhaps it will surprise us all.
Suzanne -- i don't think so, no. It's a small part and it's all about Cate & Rooney... (his part might be a smidge bigger than Sarah Paulson's part but this movie is laser focused on the two leading ladies) . I was just expressing my extreme annoyance that i fell for the old "well test screening reviews say..." when i should have known better.