April Foolish Predictions: Visual Categories
Sunday, April 17, 2016 at 12:00PM Hello Dear Reader! Your host Nathaniel checking in from a screening and chart-making frenzy. I'm heading off to my jury meeting at the Nashville International Film Festival (New Directors competition) to bestow prizes. But I wanted to point you to chart updates (the remainder will premiere this week to complete our April Foolish tradition). So let's talk costume design and cinematography and such. (lots more after the jump)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
I'm predicting two pictures here that have no credited costume designer online yet (Martin Scorsese's Silence and Robert Zemeckis's Allied) which is a risk. Who is doing the work really matters sight unseen as Oscar's individual branches have their pets. But, really, there are few easy guesses this time around. Last year's race was easier to suss out early on: I correctly predicted 3 of the 5 eventual nominees and the stained furs of The Revenant and the dystopian chic of Mad Max Fury Road, the eventual winner, were just outside my april foolish top ten.
Oscar's two favorite costume designers Sandy Powell and Colleen Atwood both have films again this year but, let's keep it 100: Colleen Atwood needs to take a long hard look in the mirror and step away from the fantastical quirk kitsch niche for a few films. Alice Through the Looking Glass, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Huntsman: Winter's War and Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children all in the same year (!?) and all but one of them franchise fantasy sequels of some sort? We're talking a serious artistic rut; how many more puffed shoulders and frilled collars and mismatch colors and so dark they're black velvety looks with intricate brocade details does she have left in her?
Like a lot of the music branch's overworked composers, she surely needs to say "no" to a few offers and do some creative rejuvenation / stretching - maybe a contemporary character study or a strict period piece not designed for inspiring Halloween costumes? Nevertheless Oscar loves her so if she doesn't split her own vote with this year's 9 hour quadruple fussy fantasy miniseries, Alice Through the Looking Glass might be the best bet since it will surely be overdone and hideous and Most often equals Best to Oscar.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
With Emmanuel Lubezki out of the way for once (probably) after three consecutive wins, and nominaton placeholders like Roger Deakins and Robert Richardson also (probably) sidelined, we've finally got some room for newbies!!! Maybe. A girl who loves cinematography can dream. Super talented younger cinematographers who've never been nominated and who could have a shot this year include: Greig Fraser (Lion and Rogue One); Linus Sandgren (La La Land); TFE's communal podcast boyfriend Bradford Young (The Story of Your Life and Beat-Up Little Seagull); and Charlotte Bruus Christensen fresh off that Madding Crowd business (Fences and The Girl on the Train). As for previous nominees, I'm betting on a return from Brokeback Mountain's great Rodrigo Prieto. He seems like a solid bet with two high profile films which will surely have showy visual elements (Passenger and Silence)
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Look how many previous nominees have possibly showy opportunities to do it again!
There's everything from 17th century Japan to the recreation of a 1930s European zoo or the 1950s origins of fast food and on to fantastical wonderlands and two starry sci-fi dramas (fantasy and sci-fi being popular in this category). And there's always the chance that this branch will just go on nominating Stuart Craig unto infinity for his work on JK Rowlings world of wizardry. And that's just the former nominees. There could always be first timers nominated.
VISUAL FX, MAKEUP, EDITING - proceed to the charts!
Can two superhero pictures make it in visual fx? (That's not actually common).
What surprises lie in store in makeup? (That category has been impossible from day one. So random!)
And before I get to the Audio charts - any suggestion on Original Song? Have you heard any rumors. It's so hard to know which movies will have eligible songs.
ONE MORE NOTE ON BEST PICTURE
Since we've already talked up Best Picture let's just talk how we did last year. The predicted top eight this far in advance only included three of the eventual nominees (Brooklyn, The Revenant, and Bridge of Spies) but 37.5% isn't that bad of a year-in-advance guess. The eventual Best Picture winner Spotlight was nowhere to be seen on the chart, (FACE PLANT) even though I obviously knew about it, mentioning it in the acting charts. Gah! In mistakes that I plan to repeat: I still think Sicario was a good guess a full year later (and better than some of Oscar's choices) so I'm risking predicting another Villeneuve picture sight unseen (The Story of Your Life) because you know it's eventually going to happen. He's got skills, that one.
Reader Comments (14)
The only thing foolish about predicting Oscar this year is attempting to predict all the categories.
Do you think the great reviews/box office of THE JUNGLE BOOK will help it in tech categories? People keep likening it to AVATAR and LIFE OF PI in that regard. Or will it be forgotten since it's an early-year release?
Obnoxious nitpicking: On "Fantastic Beasts" - "Atwood adds another fantasty franchise to her resume. None of the Potter films were ever nominated for this prize, though."
Wasn't Judianna Makovsky nominated for the first entry in the series?
Love the reference to past April foolish predictions. Would love to hear about some of the "funny in hindsight" choices too.
Adam: She was. I get why it didn't recur (often not enough new eye-catching designs in the main storyline), but I'm saddened it didn't, especially for the fifth movie's pitch perfect choices on sports-Dudley in the intro. It's only on stage for 5-6 minutes in that movie, but I'd say that's easily more worthy of nomination than Across the Universe's...everything.
Is there any way to look back on your previous years April Fools predictions?
I completely agree with Ryan T. - the effects in The Jungle Book are another milestone in the category where it's becoming impossible for audiences to identify what is and what isn't real. That sort of technical breakthrough generally gets remembered.
I would vote that Everybody Wants Some more than deserves a "don't forget" citation for Costume work-it's subtle, but every scene feels very put together and the looks of the 1980's become almost a secondary conversation piece in the film. I think it'd make my list by year's end (admittedly it's only April).
Though we haven't heard any of the music yet, I'm guessing Lin-Manuel Miranda will win Best Song this year for Disney's Moana. A lot of Disney songs have won, plus he's very popular right now thanks to Hamilton. And if he wins he'll be an EGOT winner!
Agreed with Keisha, it seems somewhat inevitable that Moana will at least be in the running for Best Original Song.
Loving the Conscientious Voter section.
Re VFX: I think Jungle Book will be remembered over Captain America given the 'best 3D since Avatar' notices and huge BO.
My friend was at CinemaCon. He said the the most impressive footage he saw was STX's The Free State of Jones with McConaughey.
The Jungle Book seems like a rock solid VFX nominee (if not win - see the Rise of the Planet of the Apes and its sequel which both lost, sadly).
Brad and Marion looking gorgeous in period garb? SWOON.