Why Aquarius's Trouble in Brazil Could Bolster Its Oscar Chances (and other foreign film Oscar buzz)
Sunday, August 28, 2016 at 8:30PM It's that exciting time of the year again when we start hearing the names of the films selected to compete in this year's Oscar race for Foreign Language Film. It's our signature category at TFE (outside of Lead and Supporting Actressing of course and arguably the eye candy tech categories). All four of the foreign charts are now up and will be frequently updated when news comes in. We currently have 9 official submissions but dozens more will be named in the next three weeks.
Current Predictions
100% likely to change since only about 10% of the field is known at this point.
Chart 1 (Afgahnistan - Finland)
Submissions from Australia, Croatia, and Cuba. Finalists from Brazil and Denmark
Chart 2 (France through Morocco)
Submissions from Georgia & Germany. Finalists from Israel.
Chart 3 (Nepal through Vietnam)
Submissions from Romania, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, and Venezuela. Finalists from The Netherlands and Spain.
Last year Jose and I interviewed representatives from 17 films and the team reviewed another dozen still and we hope to provide similarly extensive coverage again this year. Check out the charts above and do share with your friends and countrymen!
the great Sonia Braga at Cannes in May
Germany's Toni Erdmann is currently leading the Oscar buzz but the other topic on everyone's lips in this category is what will happen with Brazil's Aquarius. More on that and a couple of other speculative bits after the jump...
If you read the current articles being passed around on the web about what's gone down with Aquarius in Brazil (where it has powerful political enemies after protesting a "coup d'etat" by a new interim government) most of the coverage reads somewhat pessimistic; 'they're out to destroy a great film'. But there's another more optimistic take away from this controversy: Oscar buzz possibilities.
While it's very true that Brazil's committee might shoot their own country's chances in the foot by selecting a less revered film to represent them, this is not neccessarily bad news for the film's overall Oscar chances. History provides other examples of films that were not selected by their home countries or ran into trouble with Oscar's foreign film branch and went to to considerable success abroad and in the US anyway. Here are just a few of those examples from the last twenty years or so:
Three Colors: Red (1994)
The last film in Polish master Krysztof Kieślowski Three Colors trilogy was an instant critical sensation but The Academy, which has since loosened up at least a little bit about issues of provenance, deemed it ineligible to compete in the Foreign Language Film category due to it not being "Swiss enough" given its French cast and Polish director. Miramax was able to capitalize on what many movie lovers deemed a travesty of judgment on the foreign committee's part and the film won traction in regular Oscar categories instead, ending up with three nominations Director, Screenplay, Cinematography... surely a higher total than the film would have received without the boost of that controversy. Red's success was telling and may have shifted Academy feelings about international productions. They were, after all, the way of the future.
Talk to Her (2002)
The Spanish selection commitee, which has had a tetchy relationship to Almodovar's international dominance when it comes to their country's cinematic image, have often passed over Almodóvar movies. But they really misstepped when they said no to this one of his most beloved hits in 2002. Spain ended up without a nomination and the foreign film category ended up with a mixed bag lineup won by Germany's Nowhere in Africa which didn't prove to have much staying power. Talk to Her would have easily won the Oscar for foreign film in that year's crowd. Almodóvar's film went on to a Best Director nomination and a win for Original Screenplay. The film was so popular in the US that those two honors might have still happened with a Foreign Film nomination and win but the snub at home definitely raised the film's profile which only helps when you come with subtitles.
City of God (2002 / 2003)
Brazil DID submit the acclaimed City of God in its year but the foreign committee at AMPAS passed on it anyway. The favela crime drama found such a devout following in its regular theatrical release shortly afterward in early 2003 that it ended up with 4 out-of-nowhere regular Oscar nominations (Director, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing) none of which would have been possible given the Academy's rules had the foreign committee at AMPAS voted it in as a 2002 nominee.
Maria Full of Grace (2004)
Joshua Marston, has had a difficult time with The Academy as a US director who works in foreign countries. They disqualified his most popular film for not being Colombian enough. Later, though he was expected to be submitted by Albania for The Forgiveness of Blood that didn't happen either. One assumes due to similar fears. It's doubtful that Maria's disqualification in Foreign Film really helped it (Catalina Sandino Moreno was already on her way to a Best Actress nod) but it's a reminder that all is not lost when a film runs into trouble on the way to presumed Foreign Language Film Oscar glory.
What does all this mean for Aquarius?
The protest at Cannes that got them in trouble at home
Well, nothing yet. But whether or not the Brazilian committee attempts to squash it when they make their choice next month, Netflix which will supposedly release the film theatrically in October in the US would do well to capitalize on the controversy right now AND later on and and push hard for Best Actress recognition for Sonia Braga and a bigger profile for the movie in general. Nominations outside of foreign film (should it be dismissed by Brazil) will be tough get but so what? They always are for foreign films. And history proves that happy endings are not impossible for impressive films, even after these kinds of setbacks.
SONIA BRAGA FOR A BEST ACTRESS NOMINATION. Fight for it!
Reader Comments (26)
The only way this controversy will affect Aquarius is if it prevents it from being submitted by Brazil. Once it's in, I don't think Oscar voters will care in the least.
I'm curious to know if China's Mountains May Depart is eligible this year. I've been fully in the camp for that film since it showed at NYFF last year and, if I remember correctly, its release date was just shy of the cutoff for last year's Oscars.
There is no way the kind of person who votes for The King's Speech or even Argo then turns around and votes for Toni Erdmann or Aquarius. It's just not possible.
Goran -- then please to explain how so many great and challenging foreign films are doing well with Oscar lately: a separation? amour? son of saul? ida?
it's silly to paint all Academy members with the same brush. They have all types of voters from the very obtuse to the aesthetically discerning and everything inbetween.
My cynical take on the recent run of smart choices in Best Foreign Language Film winners is that a lot of the voters aren't actually watching the movies and are just picking whatever the most buzzed about movie is when they fill out their ballot... which ironically leads to better, more challenging, and more critically acclaimed winners than the banal nonsense that kept getting picked in the committee system when they were actually watching the movies and applying their very... Academy-like tastes to the proceedings.
Oh my god so easy to explain. Amour, Separation and especially Ida (dude! Polish Holocaust movie! I know it's low-key but it's totally in Oscar's wheelhouse) are traditionally structured narratives that follow traditional dramatic and scene coverage conventions. This is not a bad thing - they are obviously amazing films.
Toni Erdmann is a meandering, episodic 162 min comedy with an odd tone and not readily likable characters.
Aquarius barely has any narrative to speak of, and what narrative there is is completely sidelined for the majority of the running time. And the shot/scene construction is radically strange and not only uncoventional but anti-conventional. And it's pretty explicit.
I loved both of them but that's beside the point.
You've met a lot of 'industry types' by now, you know the kind of thing they respond to. Sometimes they can go for something unconventional but these two films are so strange and uncompromising, most traditional industry types (who still make up most of the Academy) would probably just mistake them for inept.
The best either of them could hope for is the Dogtooth slot. And that would be awesome. But a win would be pretty much out of the question. Especially for Aquarius.
Tanna is wonderful! It played at the Maui Film Festival this year and it was the crowd favorite. It's beautiful and very easy to root for.
I can see Sonia Braga getting some buzz for that one foreign actress slot in the Best Actress field but Isabelle Hupert has more chances this year.
Once AMPAS nominated DOGTOOTH for best foreign language film, I stopped being able to predict what they'd do. There is no way that EMBRACE OF THE SERPENT is more AMPAS than LABYRINTH OF LIES, for example.
arkaan - thank you. that's my point! we need to give the Academy credit when they chooose well rather than simply mocking middle-brow taste.
v -- well. both will have a hard time being nominated but i think both (or rather one of the two) are possible if any mainstream contenders disappoint (always possible) or if their campaigns are smartly mounted and the critics rally. it's still grotesque that sonia braga was ignored for Kiss of the Spider-Woman -- especially since the Academy loved the movie.
fig -- really glad to hear this. excited to see it.
goran -- well explicit isn't ALWAYS a no go with the Academy. The did nominated BETTY BLUE in the 80s (before the help of an executive committee "saving" it) and the opening shot is an continuous shot explicit sex scene so...
i'm just saying give them a chance. The foreign committees have been doing a much better job lately than they have previously with the new systems in place.
The foreign committees have been doing a great job indeed and I doubt they'd bypass Toni Erdmann. I just don't see the film winning. But anyway, now I'm just going in circles.
On a more important note: Sonia Braga is fine in Aquarius. More than that, she's a pleasure to watch. And of course an icon. But I'm not sure that the performance is completely mindblowing.
Sandra Huller on the other hand.... I have no words. Or I do, but I'm not sure if there are enough words. Naturalism, combined with amazing layers of feeling and control, combined with incredible instincts and psychological insights. It's a brilliantly written character but in many ways a tricky one to make sense of and Maren Ade doesn't allow easy signposts (geniuses rarely do). And yet Huller somehow manages it.
If we're only allowed one left-field foreign actress contender this year, I'm a Huller man (again, I don't see it remotely happening but oh my god, please please prove me wrong!). It's already one of my favourite performances of this decade.
I saw Toni Erdmann last week. It's unbeatable.
The biggest crowdpleaser in this category since Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.
Expect a screenplay nomination. I was laughing so hard and then a scene of a hug in a park made my cry me heart out.
And the actors! Sandra Huller twists this uptight businesswonan part in ways you could never guess, specially when it is about sex (and petit-fours).
The movie is very special, but the last 40 minutes are simply spectacular.
Goran, I strongly disagree with you. If they make peopke see it, it's over.
There's no way anyone with a heart is not loving this.
Of course it's strange, ambitious (it EARNS its running time) and sometimes off-putting, but the effect of the last hour is just devastating.
Billy Wilder oncecsaid that there are movies tgat worked fine for a theather with 10 people watching, but he personally always went for the whole crowd. This movie is for the crowd.
Even if Aquarius isn't chosen by Brazil to represent them, they are still being handled by Netflix. The beauty of the Oscars is that they're not like the Olympics and happen every year. So after their first try with Beasts Of No Nation, they could easily try again this year with Aquarius and make a Best Actress play for Sonia Braga.
Even if she had the critics and passion votes to get her in, Marion Cotillard still surprised her way in Best Actress for Two Days, One Night which had a small distributor. So there is hope.
I never understood why only Mierelles was nominated for City of God. It was a codirected movie, wasn't it?
@Nadir Katia Lund was the acting coach, but she didn't direct any scenes. Meirelles thought her work with actors was so good that he gave her a separate "co-directed by" credit.
I know Lund was the coach acting but she was credited as a codirector and all the awards for City of God's directing were prized for Mierilles and Lund, except the oscars. Why is that? I mean, was there a rule or something?
Nadir -- i've often been confused by that as well. Neither the explanations or the co-directed credit make any sense because they seem to contradict each other.
@Nadir
This article from the time goes over it in a lot of detail: https://www.theguardian.com/film/2004/feb/06/oscars.oscars2004
CITY OF GOD's shock nomination haul is at least partly because of Harvey Weinstein.
COLD MOUNTAIN broke Miramax's 11-year streak of Best Picture nominees that year and, without a clear Oscar heavyweight to back, Harvey threw his weight behind whatever he had left. So CITY OF GOD was heavily pushed, and THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS and DIRTY PRETTY THINGS wound up with Screenplay nominations.
Steve G -- except for Harvey couldn't have known that in advance and Cold Mountain was their clear Oscar heavyweight ! it just failed to snag a BP nom but 7 nominations is pretty damn good and indicates it was close to doing just that
This category has significantly improved these last years. The committees are doing a good job.
However, we know we can't have Braga and Huppert for Best Actress. Sadly, it's going to be one or the other.
Those four Coty of God noms were some of the best choices the Academy made in the decade. They came completely out of the blue and I was riveted! :)
I have seen Aquarius and it´s brilliant. It is unconventional but it grabs your attention until the explosive ending.
Sonia Braga is at the peak of her powers as an actress, she is mesmerizing. I hope the american critics love her as much as I do.
Another Trivia: In 2007 The Band's Visit was chosen to represent Israel but was disqualified by AMPAS for containing too much English dialogue. Beaufort was submitted in its place, resulting in Israel's first Oscar nomination in 23 years. Also in the first of four Israeli films in five years to be nominated for an Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film.
The great, iconic and gorgeous Sonia Braga gave a powerhouse performance in Aquarius. She is a force of nature, sublime, and shines in each frame. What a winning perfomance! I hope the Academy recognizes Braga and Aquarius, as it focuses on the life of a sixty-five-year-old woman who is unlike anything ever seen in a film. I have attended the premieres in Brazil, first in the Gramado Festival, then in São Paulo. A standing ovation took place in every session, especially because the wonderful Sonia Braga was present, along with the Aquarius team. I went to see the movie again a week later, and guess what - thunderous applause at the end once more. As it was said by Nathaniel, Sonia should have been nominated for Kiss of the Spider Woman - fortunately, the Golden Globes did justice to her. May an Oscar nomination come her way now, she thoroughly deserves it.