Best Picture Updates: La La Land Up, Birth of Nation Down
Wednesday, August 31, 2016 at 8:30PM 
It's the final blind read Oscar charts update... after Venice/Telluride/Toronto each year things clear up a lot which is both fun because "the Oscar race has begun" and horrible since it's nice to hold on to multiple impossible dreams. After festival season is over you have to winnow the impossible dreams down since so many of the films have shown their faces and people get to decide how attractive they are and if they want to keep talking and thinking and looking at them for the next five months.
At the very current moment La La Land is enjoying a deluge of ecstatic responses at Venice which makes us feel good about having predicted it from moment one. At the very current moment, The Birth of a Nation is reminding everyone that being a "frontrunner" a year before the actual ceremony is usually an untenable situation for a variety of similar reasons each time (boredom, hype backlash, "that ol' thing?" annoyance, etcetera) and also for specific unique reasons each time.
In the case of The Birth of a Nation we're dealing with the very unsavory business of a past rape incident. It feels grotesque to view such things through the lens of "what does it mean for Oscar?" which is largely why we've stayed relatively mum on the topic at The Film Experience. Nevertheless we should note that this is not necessarily the end for the movie. History is filled with bad press situations overcome and Hollywood is forgiving when they want to be. There are still four months left until Oscar nominations - plenty of time for more hot takes and backlashes against backlashes and so on. Nate Parker's willingness to talk at length about this is probably a good sign for both his future and the picture's, like this candid must-read interview with Ebony magazine. We can debate about how sincere and/or ignorant he is /was about consent (yes, yes, cultural understanding around sensitive topics does evolve over time but it was never okay to invite your friends to have sex with a passed out woman; you didn't need modern understandings of "consent" to know this in the 90s) but I think we can all agree that rape culture is a very forgiving place for accomplished men, however awful that sounds.
On the other hand once voters realize how much diversity there is in front of and behind the camera in 2016's movie offerings (Fences, Loving, A United Kingdom, Queen of Katwe, and Moonlight are all still to come) they might be eager to run far afield of the icky Birth of a Nation situation without worrying about any #OscarsSoWhite fallout because they can run right into the arms of less troubled filmmakers and warmer films.
It's all so gross. So on to something more fun. Did you know that Alicia Keys, Tori Amos, and Sia all wrote Original Songs for movies this year? They did. See it on the music chart.
CHART UPDATES Pre Festival Edition
INDEX | BEST PICTURE | BEST DIRECTOR
FOREIGN | FOREIGN A-F | FOREIGN F-N | FOREIGN N-Z
SCREENPLAYS | VISUALS | SOUND & MUSIC | ANIMATION & DOCS
Acting chart updates tomorrow!
Reader Comments (36)
Nathaniel, the writeup for Moonlight in your best picture chart is the same as Lion.
That last point is, I think, important to keep in mind in terms of Birth of a Nation's awards prospects: there are a lot of other films out there for people looking to make sure we don't get an #OscarSoWhite threepeat, and a lot of them are way more traditionally Oscar-friendly as films even before you get to the, uh, controversy around Nate Parker. If Fences is even halfway decent, it will get a load of nominations, and it's fronted by veteran, highly admired people, both in front of and behind the camera.
About original song. I would maybe add Southside with You (John Legend's Stay) and Hidden Figures (Pharrell's gonna release something).
Sledgehammer from Star Trek? Imagine Rihanna getting nominated?!?!
I'm looking forward to seeing Hidden Figures. Great story, great cast. Taraji P. Henson is on a roll of interesting well-received work. I also like Mandy Walker, the cinematographer for the film.
The lead role also has the plus of being about the intelligence, talent, and accomplishments of the person, rather than just her relationship with a family or a partner.
Hey Nathaniel! I've compiled a list of all the Original Song contenders I can find. Hope this helps!
“Just Like Fire” from “Alice Through the Looking Glass” (performed by Pink)
“Friends” from “The Angry Birds Movie” (performed by Blake Shelton)
"Flicker" from "Audrie & Daisy" (performed by Tori Amos)
"Still Falling for You" from "Bridget Jones' Baby" (performed by Ellie Goulding)
“Scars” from “The Divergent Series: Allegiant” (performed by Tove Lo)
"Angel by the Wings" from "The Eagle Huntress" (performed by Sia)
“No Dames” from “Hail, Caeser!” (performed by Channing Tatum)
“Another Day in the Sun” from “La La Land” (performed by the cast of La La Land)
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from “La La Land” (performed by Emma Stone)
“City of Stars” from “La La Land” (performed by Ryan Gosling)
“A Lovely Night” from “La La Land” (performed by Ryan Gosling & Emma Stone)
“Someone in the Crowd” from “La La Land” (performed by Emma Stone & Cast)
“Start a Fire” from “La La Land” (performed by John Legend)
“Better Love” from “The Legend of Tarzan” (performed by Hozier)
“Not Today” from “Me Before You” (performed by Imagine Dragons)
“We Know the Way” from “Moana” (performed by Lin-Manuel Miranda)
“Waving Goodbye” from “The Neon Demon” (performed by Sia)
“Nobody Knows” from “Pete’s Dragon” (performed by The Lumineers)
“Donkey Roll” from “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping” (performed by The Lonely Island)
“Equal Rights” from “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping” (performed by The Lonely Island feat. Pink)
“I’m So Humble” from “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping” (performed by The Lonely Island feat. Adam Levine)
“Incredible Thoughts” from “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping” (performed by The Lonely Island feat. Michael Bolton & Justin Timberlake)
“Mona Lisa” from “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping” (performed by The Lonely Island)
“Turn Up the Beef” from “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping” (performed by The Lonely Island feat. Emma Stone)
"Back to Life" from "Queen of Katwe" (performed by Alicia Keys)
“The Great Beyond” from “Sausage Party” (performed by the cast of Sausage Party)
“Go Now” from “Sing Street” (performed by Adam Levine)
“Drive It Like You Stole It” from “Sing Street” (performed by Hudson Thames)
“To Find You” from “Sing Street” (performed by Ferdia Walsh-Peelo)
“The Riddle of the Model” from “Sing Street” (performed by Sing Street)
“Up” from “Sing Street” (performed by The Score)
“Sledgehammer” from “Star Trek Beyond” (performed by Rihanna)
“Heathens” from “Suicide Squad” (performed by Twenty One Pilots)
“Purple Lamborghini” from “Suicide Squad” (performed by Skrillex)
“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from “Trolls” (performed by Justin Timberlake)
“Try Anything” from “Zootopia” (performed by Shakira)
Nathaniel, do you think that Anthony Wieners latest sexting episode boosts the doco's chances?
I'm shocked Passengers is getting put on contender lists like this. Nothing about that film seems like it would be something that oscars would go for.
I also don't think Arrival, no matter how fucking good it ends up being, will make the cut.
Sci-Fi just isn't Oscar's cup of tea. Even if the two above films are genius A+, I can easily see them missing out.
Agree about Passengers. That is a Sci Fi popcorn film with untrained actors.
Agree about Passengers. That is a Sci Fi popcorn film with untrained actors.
You mean Oscar winner (and four-time nominee in six years) Jennifer Lawrence? I don't know that it's the sort of film that will attract acting nominations, but suggesting the caliber of the talent is an issue is transparently wrong.
@Andrew: I believe "Something Wild" from Pete's Dragon also qualifies.
Or it could be like 2009 when Avatar *and* District 9 made it. Arrival has a director who's been building and Amy freakin' Adams.
There's also a song from FINDING DORY, yes. Also written and performed by Sia. Seriously. She just can't stop. Speaking of DORY, I see it missing the animation five. Nobody's excited by it (being a $400mil grosser didn't help JURASSIC WORLD last year) and would there really be three Disney computer generated movies on the list?
I think your top five predictions are a solid set. They're probably the five I feel most confident about. As you imply, I think Loving (which got good reviews though not great) really benefits from the Nate Parker controversy.
I think your top five predictions are a solid set. They're probably the five I feel most confident about. As you imply, I think Loving (which got good reviews though not great) really benefits from the Nate Parker controversy.
Reading between the lines of those Birth of a Nation 'raves', it sounded like people were being intensely polite rather than enthusiastic. Ditto the industry. Feels like the rape story gives the academy all the cover they need to ignore the film on the ballot.
meantime though, OH MY GOD TORI MIGHT GET AN OSCAR AND I DIDN'T EVEN KNOW UNTIL NOW!!!
Also Moonlight looks and sounds amazing. I'm struggling to control my expectations.
The momente people see Toni Erdmann it'll become a serious contender for original screenplay. A win is not out of question.
I am kind of obsessed right now, but I see Toni Erdmann getting foreign, screenpkay and even actress nominations. It's the kind of movie (and performance) that has only obstacle: getting people to see it. Huller reminds me that strange Laura Linney nomination for The Savages. Nobody thought it was goung to happen, but every single person who saw the performance loved it.
I could even see a best director nomination here? Like Amour? God, that's wishful thinking but I am SO DAMN IN LOVE with this movie
Mary Zophres did the costumes for La La Land. Do you think she could get in if the film is strong (it's not easy to design dance costumes), or are they not showy enough? She is a fairly big name and also has Hail, Caesar! this year.
I'm all about the L and M movies this year:
Loving, La La Land, Lion, Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (cheat, I know), Light Between Oceans
Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
Got the chance to watch La La Land yesterday.. and it really delivers, even with the hype it's gotten so far. Absolutely loved it, and it's made with passion, not only from Chazelle but the two main stars. I am really, really sad that I'd have to wait till December to see this again. I haven't been this taken by a movie in a long time. Pure joy.
I know nobody asked but I just wanted to add some thoughts on the acting. Both Stone and Gosling are aces. Probably Stone's best performance to date, nailing the struggling actress part. Gosling has a bit less to work with when it comes to the character's arc and arguable the harder and more unlikable role of the two, but he played it effortlessly (maybe making it look too easy). On top of that, the singing, and dancing in particular, is spectacular, something which we haven't seen on screen for a long time. Hard to imagine anyone else in these roles. Gosling in particular, and I hope he gets some recognition comes awards season.
Reading between the lines of those Birth of a Nation 'raves', it sounded like people were being intensely polite rather than enthusiastic. Ditto the industry. Feels like the rape story gives the academy all the cover they need to ignore the film on the ballot.
I would add that, given the subject matter, any excuse to ignore The Birth of a Nation is probably welcome for many Academy members.
Sci-fi movie The Martian was nominated for Best picture just last year. How quickly people forget.
I could be wrong, but I think Paramount will give Florence Foster Jenkins a strong awards push in the fall. That movie is not as slight as some people are suggesting, and manages to be funny and charming. I personally would love a strong best actress line up with Stone, Streep, etc. who also star in movies that are nominated for best picture.
cash: The best comparisons to The Arrival (as far as BP nominees go) are probably Close Encounters (1977) and Her (2013). Considering that Villeneuve has never produced a great movie before this and accounting for the Academy's pretty much provable lower interest in primarily weighty sci-fi? 3rd place is VERY generous.
cash: Yes, I know that Close Encounters wasn't officially a BP nominee, but it would be in '77 under current rules.
It will be interesting to see which groups end up rallying (or not) behind Nate Parker: for example, directors might nominate him but not actors or writers. A lot can happen between now and the day that voting closes and I will be curious to see how responses to Parker and film shift over the coming months.
WILSON, FREE FIRE and THE BOOK OF HENRY have all moved to 2017. And WILD OATS is not getting nominated for anything, given the recent post here and comments from people who'd seen it. And if it's currently screening on the Liftetime channel, would it even be eligible?
What a great list of original songs compiled by Andrew! I would add to that list the marvelous "Wish That You Were Here" by Florence + The Machine for "Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children".
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