Globe Predictions Anyone?
Saturday, January 6, 2018 at 11:34PM by Nathaniel R
A few days back David Poland asked the Gurus of Gold to predict the Globes and I became obsessed with the notion that I, Tonya would be the surprise heavyweight. I was pretty much alone in that with nearly the entire group thinking Lady Bird's got this in the bag (a couple of people think Get Out). I think my I Tonya prediction was more a product of my fear since the wildly positive response to the movie surprised me and sent me back for a second viewing which only strengthened my resolve that it's a) not good and b) highly problematic...
I guess we all have our off-consensus movies. This is one of mine. My problems start with its self-satifisfied format --which makes it at a cousin to the extremely stale mockumentary genre (in Meryl Streep's Prada voice 'Direct to camera interview punch-lines to more traditional scene work? Groundbreaking.) even though it's a true story. Sort of. But what I most dislike about it is its glib dismissal of Nancy Kerrigan. I think it makes the movie pretty facile because it's easy to rewrite history and redeem criminals if you pretend their victims don't exist! Oddly a lot of people have a similar problem with the sympathy for the devil (aka Sam Rockwell) in Three Billboards but don't have it with I Tonya even though both movies abstract their victims completely.
ANYWAY... Enough about I Tonya. Some people love it. To each their own!
I'm so curious who you think will win these two categories (since they seem like tough calls). Vote!
As for that Gurus of Globe chart. I'm mostly okay with my other Globe predictions which are decidedly of the "spread the wealth" variety: The Post, del Toro, Hawkins, Franco, Oldman, Dafoe, The Square, Coco, Shape of Water in score, Lady Bird in screenplay and "This is Me" in song. But maybe that spread the wealth guess is a result of really not knowing where things will fall. The only predictions among those I feel confident about are del Toro, Hawkins, Desplat and Coco. And the fact that I'm so confident about my three wins guesswork for Shape of Water probably makes it silly that I'm predicting The Post to take Best Drama. But what can you do. It's the Globes. They're very hard to predict! Like, why am I predicting Willem Dafoe when that's the only place they went for The Florida Project (indicating not much support overall). Some gurus are predicting Frances McDormand to take Best Actress Drama due to Three Billboards very large nomination count but they've passed her over in other years when she's had that winning feeling (Fargo and Olive Kitteridge)
Reader Comments (44)
Maybe Best Actress Drama will have another three-way tie and truly live up to its category title? One can hope, though if McDormand wins the Globe I'd move her all the way up for the reasons you cited, and which keeps me from thinking her losing would have a lot of weight. Is there any way Chalamet wins Actor?
Save a Kaluuya upset I'm basically with you, even if the Comedy categories feel difficult to pin down. The women of I, Tonya and Lady Bird have strong claims on the acting prizes (though I bet Lady Bird gets both), and wouldn't be surprised if either film or Get Out swiped the top prize. Would be nice if they saved Comedy for last this year.
"Specifically, I'm talking about the Globes, which I think is bent, to be honest with you. There's always a bit of that involved, people talk about the 'sympathy win' or someone will get something for their body of work rather than that role,The Oscars and Baftas, the voting and all of that is pretty straightforward. But the Globes, the foreign press, is a whole different thing."
-Gary Oldman, 2011
Chalamet for the win tomorrow.
My dream is for Isabelle Huppert to award Timothée Chalamet. And Three Billboards to win nothing. Would also be great for I, Tonya to also win nothing.
Remembering when Frances McDormand lost to Madonna last time ;)
i’m more interested in which actress is going to pull a bette davis in jezebel and defy the all black dress code.
I think the Globes are going for Lady Bird and Three Billboards (and Ronan and McDormand). I read that the HFPA President was telling the members to vote for Three Billboards, which tells you how that group is uh, not exactly a neutral body. For men, they will go with Timothée and The Get Out guy? Dafoe and Metcalf. I don’t think The Post will capture their imagination but will likely do better with Oscar.
After seeing I, Tonya last night, I can also see Robbie and Janney winning, though I prefer Ronan and really, really want Laurie Metcalf to win. Honestly every category is up in the air. If I had to bet money...
Drama - The Post
Comedy/Musical - Lady Bird
Director - Guillermo del Toro
Actor (Drama) - Timothee Chalamet
Actress (Drama) - Frances McDormand
Actor (C/M) - James Franco
Actress (C/M) - Saoirse Ronan
Supporting Actor - Armie Hammer
Supporting Actress - Allison Janney
Screenplay - Three Billboards (bleh)
Not confident about any of these except del Toro.
Arnie Hammer? That would be such a Pia Zadora moment.
@WD - more of an aaron taylor-johnson moment
Margot Robbie is my favorite Lead Actress performance of the year! She understood the tone of I, TONYA so completely and could make me bust a gut laughing and cry for her - simultaneously! (Dark Australian humor seems to lend itself to this - Cate Blanchett and Toni Colette are also genius at it!)
(Apart from the beautiful scene in which Lady Bird surprises her best friend by showing up to her mother’s apartment on prom night) I don’t remember being more affected by anything all year as much as the scene where Margot as Tonya learns that she can never skate again professionally. She makes the stakes every bit as high for her as when Charlize as Aileen is sentenced to death in MONSTER. I thought she was magnificent!
I really hope Sally Hawkins wins! Globe then Oscar!
David brings up an interesting point... McDormand is Globe-less (except for a special non-competitive ensemble prize for SHORT CUTS). She lost when she was up for FARGO (lost to Madonna in EVITA) and OLIVE KITTERIDGE (lost to Maggie Gyllenhaal in THE HONORABLE WOMAN), which she of course won her Oscar and Emmy for respectively.
THREE BILLBOARDS is her 6th nomination from them with no prior wins. Will they remember that and feel this is their time to reward her? Or maybe they just don't like her?
I still dont get why people love CMBYN performances so much. The movie is very good but the performances are not out of this world or anything like that. And the screenplay... Weak in very key parts. No way Chalamet, being that young, is going to win a Globe, a SAG or an Oscar. Maybe one of the 3 but not the big one.
The only drawback agst Hawkins is tt she had won a GG before while McDormand still has none. So HFPA will likely take this opportunity to award the latter for a career best performane AND right the snub.
Actor-wise, I tink they r gonna take this opportunity to teach Oldman a lesson, Lol..
Is HFPA really gonna spread the wealth?? Hard to say.. My guess as follows:
Drama - The Shape of Water
Comedy/Musical - Lady Bird
Director - Guillermo del Toro
Actor (Drama) - Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress (Drama) - Frances McDormand
Actor (Comedy/Musical) - James Franco
Actress (Comedy/Musical) - Saoirse Ronan
Supporting Actor - Willem Dafoe
Supporting Actress - Laurie Melcafe
Screenplay - Three Billboards
Score - The Shape of Water
3 Billboards was offensive on many levels. I truly hope it wins nothing. The only thing I could stand is Rockwell because his character 'arc' is not his fault. The whole thing reeks, am so disappointed. Now officially cheering for Hawkins. And CMBYN for Picture of course, its easily the greatest achievement of the bunch.
Hammer could very much win. Aaron won last year and now THAT is a Pia Zadora moment.
CMBYN deserves every award.
Still pulling for Streep though!
Can't accept that James Franco may go home with an award tonight and Timothee Chalamet may go home empty handed.
I wish I loved Defoe's performance as much as everyone else seems to.
"I still dont get why people love CMBYN performances so much. The movie is very good but the performances are not out of this world or anything like that." // I don't understand. Did you happen to walk out in the last 10 minutes of the film?
Agree wholeheartely on I Tonya and don't get me started on Janney's performance after years of doing gr8 charater work she's going to be nominated for this film,why she's bad in it,Robbie is wrong as Tonya only Stan seemed to get it.
Neither Hammer, nor Taylor-Johnson are Pia Zadora levels, people. Get a grip!
The closest thing was that year they showered The Tourist with nominations.
The races I'm watching the closest are actress comedy and the supporting races.
If Robbie beats Ronan, she may very well win the Oscar, especially if Streep or Hawkins upset McDormand. She is the perfect age for AMPAS, the below the line people will be solidly on her side, she is a rising star, a producer, sex on a stick, and a hard campaigner. All she needs is for a relevant awards body to signal that she is viable. A win tonight could be just that sign that is missing, even if she loses SAG (as I believe she will).
Whether Janney or Metcalf will win an Oscar come March may very well be decided tonight. Either they will rubber stamp the critics and Metcalf will Patricia Arquette her way to the Oscars, or Janney will upset and steamroll the televised awards. They have such similar narratives, though! I keep wondering if they won`t cancel each other out and allow for Mary J Blige to upset (Gloves do love their divas). If she does, I think she will become the first Netflix player nominated for an acting Oscar.
On the male side, Willem Dafoe has to either win or to lose to Christopher Plummer. If he loses to Sam Rockwell, we have a race.
Chalamet could very well win Actor Drama, but even if he does it, he will most likely not win the Oscar. There is no way the old farts in the Academy will look at that scrawny, boney, curly haired muppet (and playing a weepy faggot, no less) and respect him enough to vote for him. If he wins, the steak eaters will circle the wagons and pull a Crash on him, and whomever gets SAG (most likely Oldman) will win the Oscar.
Franco has Comedy Actor in the bag, me thinks. If someone upsets, I think it is likelier to be Jackman than Kaluuya.
I'm on the fence about I, Tonya. I like the mechanics of the film a lot more than you, Nathaniel, but have the same complaint about the tone. My god, the screenplay really does act like Tonya was the only special one fighting against the odds. Literally the number 1 and number 2 back and forth battle for top figure skater in the US was between a girl from a poor background and a girl from a lower middle class background. It was unheard of considering how expensive figure skating is. I had a friend in high school who was a nationally ranked skater. Her family wound up mortgaging the house to continue paying for training; she still wound up just missing out on the 2002 team and had to retire at age 17 due to costs.
A bunch of idiots put a plan into motion that killed two careers in one Olympic season. There's an engaging film to be made from this, but I, Tonya is not the one. Margot Robbie and her team would have been better off rewriting the screenplay as "inspired by true events" with brand new character names and thinly veiled references to what actually happened. It's close enough to pure fiction anyway as it stands. The film really needed a nice long act where it jumped to Nancy's perspective in the same style ala Gone Baby Gone or it needed to really double down on how little you can trust Tonya's story to accurately reflect reality at any given moment.
That said, I did enjoy the film and do not begrudge Allison Janney her long overdue Academy Award nomination and possible win. I'm also totally onboard with a makeup nomination since those wigs didn't crimp themselves and give me horrible flashbacks to my childhood. Margot Robbie is really good, too, but this should not be her Black Swan "it doesn't matter that she didn't actually dance because of the quality of the performance" moment. That CGI is bad and it should feel bad.
The Globes like to kiss the ass of big stars
@jono The "Get Out guy" has a name. You managed to identify all of the other (white) actors in your post, so the least you could do is take 30 seconds to look up Daniel Kaluuya.
I just saw half of all the probable nominees of the Oscars and, be really frank with you all: 2017 was a good year for movies, but only three could be considered masterpieces:
DUNKIRK
BLADE RUNNER 2049
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
I still have to watch PHANTOM THREAD, THE SHAPE OF WATER, FACES PLACES, MUDBOUND and COCO.
I liked
I, TONYA
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
THE FLORIDA PROJECT
LADY BIRD
GET OUT
But only 'liked'. No more than that.
I am still curious that everyone is speaking of
ALLISON JANNEY + MARGOT ROBBIE and not SEBASTIAN STAN*
WILLEM DAFOE + BROOKLYN PRINCE and not BRIA VINAITE*
SAOIRSE RONAN + LAURIE METCALF and not BEANIE FELDSTEIN*
DANIEL KALUUYA + BETTY GABRIEL and not BRADLEY WHITFORD* and LAKEITH STANFEILD*
TIMOTHEÈ CHALAMET + MICHAEL STUHLBARG and not AMIRA CASAR* and ESTHER GARREL*
'cause they are, in my opinion, all the best performances of each movie, and don't have the critics support because all the limelights are direct to other ones,
Could be a much better award season if everyone try really hard to see things.
Say that, my predicts to the Globes tonight
DRAMA - THE SHAPE OF WATER or CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
COMEDY - LADY BIRD
ACTOR DRAMA - GARY OLDMAN and TIMOTHEÈ CHALAMENT (tie)
ACTRESS DRAMA - SALLY HAWKINS
ACTOR COMEDY - JAMES FRANCO
ACTRESS COMEDY - MARGOT ROBBIE (they love a star!)
SUPPORTING ACTOR - ARMIE HAMMER
SUPPORTING ACTRESS - LAURIE METCALF
SCREENPLAY - LADY BIRD
SCORE - PHANTOM THREAD or DUNKIRK
FOREGIN FILME - LOVELESS
ANIMATED FILM - COCO
SONG - REMEMBER ME (COCO)
i agree that if dafoe loses to rockwell, we have a race. and it seems like a possibility. dafoe's performance is beautiful and so specific and detailed, but it's also very subtle, and dumb people could view it as he has very little to do in the movie. if the battle for this often-boring category is between dafoe and rockwell, two great actors, then we have a lucky year.
similarly with metcalf and janney. i preferred metcalf's performance, as i thought the casting of janney was a bit TOO on-the-nose, but both pieces of acting are so smart, well-crafted, and beautifully executed, and either choice is pretty great.
the movie that everyone i know in the industry is talking about right now is PHANTOM THREAD. i think on oscar morning, that is the film that will surprise with noms for Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay.
and if CALL ME scores big with noms with the academy, i think there's a possibility that chalamet can adrien brody his way to winning. even detractors of the movie admit that his performance is breathtaking, and there seems to be little excitement about DARKEST HOUR.
@carmen, a “weepy faggot”? Please. That is offensive
@david, thanks. I don’t know how to open a separate window on my phone
Carmen Sandiego
You talk like you were scripted by Martin McDonagh. Just much better!
I'm hearing more and more people, including some pretty smart gay men, talk about how "creepy" CMBYN is, because of the age difference. I fear that the sex panic we're dealing with (forcing Al Franken out of the Senate without a fair investigation, targeting Woody Allen like never before for a 26 year old single, essentially discredited accusation) might have a crippling effect on this film's chances, after all. It's all good and well (*very* good) that the Weinsteins and the Cosbys and the Spaceys are being taken down, but there are going to be some undeserved victims, and this film may be one of them. Who knows how the HFPA votes? But I think at the Academy it could be toast, with the possible exception of a de facto lifetime achievement award gesture for James Ivory.
Danno
Agree on all counts. That's why I think its a battle between Lady Bird and Get Out. And we can't pretend these awards are NOT remotely political. Not right now. There's been lobbying always.
And the fact that films like King's Speech and The Artists won, somehow describe four things for me, in this order:
1) The REALLY liked it, duh.
2) The Academy didn't came up with diversity changes, yet, and there were non preferential ballots (I think)
3) They were much mellower times, in political terms.
4) Harvey Weinstein
@Jon- I absolutely agree with you about AMIRA CASAR. She has so many glancing looks that flicker across her face. There is so much subtlety and motherly concern.
SPOiLER: Of course she knew! I imagine she had a woman to woman talk with Marzia and that is why Marzia has such an about face on her feelings toward Elio. Annella is always looking out for her son, but still giving him space to live his own life. END SPOILER
She definitely deserves some kind of recognition.
Still hoping the Hollywood Foreign press shows The Post some love tonight- freedom of the press in the world of Trump? Can it be denied or will they seize the moment by awarding it Best Pic? Still rooting for a Streep win/upset tonight!
This is one of the few times that I have no idea how this will go. I love the unpredictability. I'm only confident about James Franco winning best actor (comedy) for The Disaster Artist.
I will be very sad if Saoirse Ronan loses best actress (comedy) but I think there's a strong chance they'll reward Margot Robbie for I, Tonya.
Everyone seems to be predicting Sally or Frances for best actress drama but does anyone think Meryl can crash this party? I could see The Post taking best actress and best picture drama. This film seems like it's right up HFPA's alley and could be a wide consensus pick since 3 Billboards and The Shape of Water have various detractors. It's a movie about the importance and necessity of journalism, it's Old Hollywood with 2 its biggest stars and its biggest director helming it, and it has the "new" factor.
"Dunkirk" is a great cinema experience- if a couple of the cute soldier heroes had started to make it would be top Oscar contender ; )
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Meryl Streep won tonight. The Globes love Meryl and we all want to hear what she has to say.
No guts, no glory: Timothee Chalamet and Christopher Plummer prevail. Otherwise, no real jaw-droppers on the film side.
Meryl and Judi win so we obsess over who gets left out come Oscar nomination morning :)
Tony- that would be insane! At least this awards season has been difficult to pin down.
Jamie - I agree. No clear CLEAR front runner for anything is a welcome change and makes it more interesting and enjoyable
@ Jono - I apologize. From now on, I shall refrain from calling characters "weepy".
@ chofer - I love his three movies, so I'll take it as a compliment.
@ Danno - I do believe that CMBYN's frank sexuality is hurting its chances a bit (same with Carol a few years back). It was easier to digest Moonlight because its homosexuality was implied and not shown (apart from one very tame kiss). The European aesthetic probably hurts it too, to some degree.
Unlike last year when La La Land won all 7 of its nominations, I think this year will see a LOT of films win just 1 or even 2 awards. There has been no clear frontrunner for best pic this year. It looks like Willem Dafoe has Supporting Actor in the bag, but I still think Alison Janney might pip Laurie Metcalf at the Globes AND the Oscars. As for Best Actor and Actress - I have no clue what will happen. I think at the Globes it will be McDormand, Ronan, Kaluuya and Oldman.
@Tom
THANK YOU! I THINK THE SAME!!! SHE KNEW!
Frank sexuality in CMBYN?
Yeah, there's more to see than in Moonlight, but it's hardly frank. Had it been frank, it wouldn't even BE nominated for as many awards as it is.
it's about as safe as it gets, so thankfully it was Guadagnino who directed it, and some sensuality and, "sex", shines through regardless.
@Jon honestly I want to watch a movie from her perspective of that summer. So much was going on in her head. I really can't believe she had been forgotten during awards season.
@tom
me too!!!