SAG Predictions. Let's Have 'em.
Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 1:30PM by Nathaniel R
Will Mary Poppins Returns receive both Actress and Cast nominations?
The Screen Actors Guild Award nominations will be announced on Wednesday the 12th and voting wraps up tomorrow on Monday the 10th. So it's time to do predictions as well as possible darkhorse surprise attack theorizing. Let's begin...
ACTRESS
We're predicting the five that we're currently also predicting for Best Actress Oscar nominations: Blunt, Close, Colman, Gaga, and McCarthy. Nicole Kidman could still happen since SAG likes her (as well they should) but we fear that even with multiple critics awards, Toni Collette will likely be undone by awards season's anti-horror bias. SAG loves Viola Davis but no one beyond festival critics went wild for Widows. If Yalitza Aparicio is nominated here for Roma she's probably in for Oscar too. The only true "surprise" we can see as a distinct possibility would be either Carey Mulligan in Wildlife or Julia Roberts in Ben Is Back, the former because the movie valiantly made a real effort in October with many Q&As and she's a widely respected actor and the latter because it's Julia and everybody who sees it likes her in that movie.
ACTOR
Here is where you'll see some divergence from the Globes because Ethan Hawke will be nominated for First Reformed on his way to his first Lead Actor nod at the Oscars (after two supporting and two screenplay nominations). He's too well liked and the performance is too good to be ignored. Plus the movie got an early headstart and has never faded from the conversation. Another thing that will help Hawke is that SAG has an earlier mindset than Oscars given how early they vote. Remember they mostly passed on The Post last year, which screened very late, so the same thing could theoretically happen to Vice... but we'll still assume that Christian Bale makes it even if the ensemble seems less than locked up, starpower aside. Predictions: Bale, Cooper, Hawke, Malek and Mortensen. For the record I personally don't believe (as many do) that Malek is a lock with Oscar but I can't imagine him missing with SAG which is more populist in its voting and more susceptible to box office enthusiasms. (I think we might see Dafoe take his spot in the Oscar lineup.) If there's a mild surprise at SAG it could be John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman. Robert Redford or Ryan Gosling would feel like total shocks at this point, though.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Same lineup that we've been predicting since well before the Golden Globe nominations which matched it 5/5: Adams, Foy, King, Stone, and Weisz. With two leads crowding out actual supporting players and no real momentum for Kidman, Robbie, or Debicki (*sniffle*) it's hard to imagine the Oscar lineup not being the exact Globe lineup.
Surprise Attack?: If SAG throws a curveball we're guessing it'll be either Michelle Yeoh on the strength of her fame, her role, and the popularity of Crazy Rich Asians overall or Linda Cardellini who is such a valuable assett to any TV or film which includes her. If they really love Green Book they might actually go for her since she's so adorable in the film.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Unlike their female counterparts, this lineup might not be so Globe matchy-matchy. For one thing Sam Elliott seems like a perfect SAG choice waiting to happen. So we're guessing it's Ali, Chalamet, Driver, Elliott and Richard E Grant as the SAG lineup. We're going to guess that Rockwell misses since he has internal competition and a small role and the movie screened late.
Surprise Attack? If SAG throws a curveball, we think it'll be Michael B Jordan for Black Panther. We'd LOVE to see a shocking nod for Alessandro Nivola in Disobedience but even SAG has trouble remembering movies released that early.
STUNT ENSEMBLE
We love that SAG has this award. It's hard to predict but let's try: Avengers Infinity War, Black Panther, Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, and A Quiet Place ... with outside spoiler possibilities for: Ant-Man and the Wasp or Deadpool 2, and, uh, basically every other action movie.
ENSEMBLE
And now we come to our favorite SAG category because it's the one that is the most unique. The nominating committee at SAG changes every year which is why you never quite know if they're just going to rubber stamp Best Picture choices or go out on interesting acting limbs sans Best Picture heat. It all depends on what the committee has seen and if enough of them are passionate about the category itself to not think of it in terms of "Best Picture" since that's not what it's supposed to be.
Predictions
Black Panther - So much popularity. So much press. Year long "Wakanda Forever" quoting and the cast has always felt like a collective.
Crazy Rich Asians - same as above, minus "Wakanda Forever"
The Favourite - Though they'll nominate all three of the leads, we suspect it'll still feel like a full cast to them (Hoult and Alwyn have their fans)
BUT I'M VERY TORN ON WHICH OF THESE FOUR IS STRONGEST FOR THE OTHER TWO NOMINATIONS. HOW ABOUT YOU?
Possible
BlacKkKlansman - A better way to honor it than with individual acting nods given the work of Harrier, Washington, Driver, Grace, and Corey Hawkins as Kwame Ture. But will they? Some of the KKK performances are rather... broad. Not that SAG gets that discerning about individual performances within movies they generally like.
If Beale Street Could Talk - Another movie with lots of actorly appeal. But will nominating Regina King be enough for them since she's the obvious standout?
Mary Poppins Returns - If they're voting on "movie I'd most like to have been in!" as they sometimes have done, this wouldn't be out of place.
Vice -- This wouldn't be surprising at all given how many celebrity actors are doing mimicry work in it. On the other hand it screened late and that cost The Post what seemed like a locked up nomination with SAG.
All that said I'm going to predict BlacKkKlansman and Beale Street to join the top three predictions.
Dark Horses that had trouble mustering audience enthusiasm but they wouldn't be bad choices at all in this particular category
Boy Erased, Widows, Wildlife
Extreme Long Shots but if SAG has a weird year...
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, A Quiet Place, First Man
Way too small and too filled with lesser-knowns for SAG to notice but wouldn't it be a fun shake-up the field type shock?
We the Animals, Support the Girls, Eighth Grade, Shoplifters
Lots of Best Picture Heat but an ensemble prize would be a very strange choice given that only 1 or 2 characters get any focus at all
A Star is Born -Given that we suspect the three main actors will all be nominated and the movie focuses almost entirely on two people, we doubt they'll view it as a "Cast" option.
Green Book - They'll nominate both Ali and Mortensen so why would they also think "Cast," in another movie with only two real parts (plus Linda Cardellini)?
Roma - If it's nominated for Cast here, despite only one character being fleshed out at all and it being a foreign language film, I think we can assume it's winning Best Picture at the Oscars having broken all the typical unwritten rules of awards season.
OKAY, HAVE AT IT IN THE COMMENTS. What are your predictions and/or preferences?
Reader Comments (42)
Totally agree with S/Actor but feel Jordan may just sneak in and still have the tiniest feeling Cardelini is our nominee with no GG or SAG nod,Foy is the 1 who seems least sure,unless Oscar goes big on First Man and it is right up their street,maybe Julia in Lead,No Bale but Dafoe or Gosling instead,
What about the completely wild acting nomination they throw into the mix? I think Emma Thompson or Michelle Yeoh. Or Helen Mirren for Winchester...
This Blunt momentum is bothering me...mainly because her performance based on the trailer does not look all that good. What's with the accent?
However she'll definitely get in here, they even nominated her for that trashy Girl on a Train movie.
It's just a pity that it has to be at the expense of someone like Collette or Kidman.
She could change my mind when I actually see the film but based on what I've seen so far...not impressed.
Couldn't agree more RE: Blunt. Maybe it's because I am English but her accent in the trailer is just bizarre.
Pouring one out for Hereditary, Toni Collette, and the v strong ensemble that surrounds her.
I wouldn't be surprise if Amandla Stenberg (THE HATE U GIVE) gets a spot in Best Actress and Thomasin McKenzie (LEAVE NO TRACE) shows at Best Supporting Actress... SAG likes young promising actresses and they're both exceptional.
There has to be a lot of good will for Collette's career amongst her peers. I wonder if that could overcome the anti-horror bias at the major ceremonies.
Ensemble: Black Panther (vomit), Blackkklasman (vomit again),The Favourite, Widows, Vice
If Beale Street Could Talk
Actor: Hawke, Cooper, Bale, Mortensen, Redford
Actress: Close, Gaga, McCarthy, Colman, Blunt, Viola
S. Actor: Grant, Chalamet, Carell, Rockwell, Ali, Kalluya
S. Actress: Stone, Weisz, Adams, King, Foy.
Actress is interesting: Gaga, Colman, and Close feel like locks. Melissa McCarthy seems close to one. So that leaves Viola Davis, who's had 5 SAG nominations w/ 3 wins, vs. Emily Blunt, who they must've liked to have that awful Girl on a Train nomination two years back...
Actor: It seems like SAG is always a little behind the buzz, so I wonder if John David Washington can hold on. Does love for one's parent help in awards? I'd think so. Overall, Blackkklansman's awards prospects are very amorphous to me. It feels like it's just trying to hang on. If it weren't for Spike Lee, I think it would have fallen off by now.
Supporting Actress: If it's not the established five, I have no way of guessing who'd it be.
Supporting Actor: Vice screened late, but Rockwell has been predicted for months so I think they will have been considering it. Some combo of Rockwell, Jordan, Driver, and Chalamet should make up the two open (read: non-locked) spots. I'll go with Jordan and Chalamet.
Cast: I think A Star Is Born can easily get in. There are a number of character actors in minor roles and everybody loves it. Seems just as if not more likely than The Favourite. I'd also give Widows more of a chance - there are just so many big names. (Mudbound, Captain Fantastic, and Beasts of No Nation weren't exactly rolling in buzz.) And Vice and Beale Street have broad ensembles too. I'm going with Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, A Star is Born, Widows, and... ?
The Cardellini talk is making me ill
Agree with your picks. At Oscar I think Rockwell will take his position again and Chalamet is the actor Globe and Sag nominated who misses at Oscar.
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Crazy Rich Asians
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star Is Born
I'm assuming that Poppins has screened adequately for SAG members, which has been an issue with holiday releases in the past. SAG is so populist and The Favourite just does not seem like a SAG-friendly movie; I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the three actresses missing in favor of a left-field choice (even someone like Meryl in Mary Poppins Returns).
Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade seems very plausible to me. I think she’s closer to an Oscar nomination than we think.
Do you all feel that Close will win SAG?
@eoghan and evangelina - Blunt's accent in Mary Poppins Returns reminds me of the Queen... Or at least Claire Foy's in The Crown.
Watching the LA & SF film critics on twitter, and how fun would Michael Jordan, Steven Yeun &/or Hugh Grant be in Supporting Actor instead of the relatively boring likely noms?
We all realize that Blunt is a British Actress right? Pretty weird taking about her getting a BRITISH accent wrong...
Foy is vulnerable for the supporting lineup. I wish Kidman double nods for SAG.
Tyler - then she is way off.
Julie Andrews has a crisp and distinctive BBC RP voice. Nobody speaks plummy like Claire Foy in The Queen apart from the Queen. It's a parody voice in the UK and MP is not a parody character. It's the kind of mistake you can forgive if it is made by an American actress, but Blunt is English and from the Home Counties! I mean - even Dick Van Dyke had an excuse.
I genuinely feel she has much less of a shot getting in with BAFTA if her accent is shit. In the trailers it already sounds like a cross between Joyce Grenfell with a cold and Fiona Shaw in 3 Men and a Little Lady. I suppose the closest US comparison I can think of is rebooting Back to the Future and having Marty McFly speak like an 1850s cowboy because that's how Americans talk right!? It is that bad.
Jamie see comment above for explanation. Also see Charlie Hunnam in Green Street and everything he has ever done if you don't believe a Brit can have problems sounding authentically British.
I'm not lying if I say that I'm dying to read your annual Who Was Left Out article when they announce the ensemble noms.
I hope everyone is done trying to make Widows happen.
Not going to happen!
I would love: The Favorite, Widows, Beale St, Black Panther, and Support the Girls be the ensemble nods. Probably something like Mary Poppins or Vice will get the slots instead.
Ensemble: Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, A Star Is Born, Widows
Actress: Close, Collette, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy
Actor: Cooper, Gosling, Hawke, Malek, Mortensen
Supporting Actress: Foy, King, Stone, Weisz, Yeoh
Supporting Actor: Ali, Driver, Elliot, Grant, Jordan
@Nick T: You and me both. On the C*rdell*ni thing. Come ON!
Praying to Paimon for Toni!
I hear that while Tony Lip and Dr. Shirley were gallivanting throughout the South, Ms. Vallelonga was making crabby snacks at home so she could following in Ms. Solitano's footsteps and get a coattails nomination.
Mark my words: At least a young, teen or barely out of her teens promise will take out one of your best actress choices, maybe more. Like Ed say, Amandla Stenberg, Thomasin MacKenzie might steal the show. I'll throw Elsie Ficher's name there. I can't believe you didn't include them. Also although she's by now a seasoned actress despite her youth Saoirse can be a contender. You mentioned how much SAG loves Kidman, they happen to also like Saoirse Ronan a lot, maybe even more.
How about The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for Ensemble? It is the Coens, after all.
Ensemble: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Favourite
Actress: Close, Collette, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy
Actor: Bale, Cooper, Hawke, Mortensen, Washington
Supporting Actress: Kidman, King, Stone, Weisz, Yeoh
Supporting Actor: Ali, Chalamet, Driver, Elliot, Grant
"I hear that while Tony Lip and Dr. Shirley were gallivanting throughout the South, Ms. Vallelonga was making crabby snacks at home so she could following in Ms. Solitano's footsteps and get a coattails nomination."
HA! Post of the day!
Green Book is embarrassingly bad. Can't believe it's in the conversation.
Please, Mr Satan, let Toni get the nod here!
Evan -- you are brilliant.
Ensemble: Black Panther, BlackkKlansman, The Favourite, ASIB, Vice
Actor: Bale, Cooper, Mortensen, Malek, Dafoe
Actress: Colman, Gaga, Close, Blunt, McCarthy
S Actor: Grant, Ali, Elliott, Rockwell, Jordan
S Actress: King, Adams, Stone, Foy, Weisz
Crazy Rich Asians shut out.
Also don't be shocked if Bohemian Rhapsody gets an Ensemble nom. I'm beginning to think it's more popular in the industry than we like to believe.
Also praying for Collette. I think her likely near miss will be my biggest disappointment of the season (unless Sam Elliott wins anything but a razzie). Wishful thinking & hoping for a nice surprise for Steven Yuen, Alex Wolff, Ben Foster, Thomasin McKenzie & the Disobedience trio.
I think Pike surprises with a SAG nom (taking Blunt's place) and that propels her to an Oscar nom.
Guys, genuine question. Is Gaga truly deserving of a nomination. I honestly think there was nothing special about that performance. It wasn't bad but certainly wasn't award worthy. Am I the only one or did I watched a different performance? Anyone?
I suspect Viola Davis and Michelle Yeoh (at last!) emerge here, though neither makes the Oscar cut. Otherwise, no significant surprises.
Iskandar Z
Yes, you watched a different performance.
Ensemble: BlacKkKlansman, Roma, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Favourite, Vice
Actress: Close, Colman, McCarthy, Mulligan, Pike.... ( guessing the'll pass on Gaga until she acts again and acquire a Cher -Silkwood, Mask - caliber ; Kidman, Roberts, Theron or Collette may all replace Mulligan and-or Pike , although I do think they shouldn't. Love Davis but she is not happening for Widows.
Actor: Bale, Cooper, Hawke, Hedges, Malek ...( Mortensen. Dafoe and Gosling all look possible, but I guess they go for Hedges and Malek instead)
Supporting Actress: Adams, Foy, King, Stone, Weisz, (that is a brilliant line-up)
Supporting Actor: Ali, Chalamet, Grant, Nivola, Yeun ( and I'd love to see this line-up but Rockwell and Elliot may upset me.)
I hope BOY ERASED makes it into ensemble just because during the credits everybody gets a card so it'd be a true ensemble.