USC Scripter Noms & Final Screenplay Predictions

The USC Libraries, chaired by USC professor Howard Rodman, that began in 1988. Though they can signify strength moving into Oscar nominations, it's important to remember that they're a juried award from a college so not connected to the Oscar voting body, though perhaps Rodman himself is a member since he as once president of the WGA.  

Their nominations as well as our final predictions for Oscar's Screenplay categories are after the jump...

Feature Films

• Black Panther -Screenwriters Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, based on the character created by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby
• Can You Ever Forgive Me? - Screenwriters Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty and author Lee Israel 
• The Death of Stalin - Screenwriters Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin and David Schneider based on the graphic novel by Fabien Nury and Thierry Robin
• If Beale Street Could Talk - Screenwriter Barry Jenkins and author James Baldwin
• Leave No Trace - Screenwriters Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini for Leave No Trace, based on the novel My Abandonment by Peter Rock

Five nominations were chosen from a field of 90 adaptations. Some articles online have suggested that A Star is Born was snubbed but from our understanding of the USC award rules, it's strictly a "printed work" award, i.e. adaptations of novels, comic books, and non-fiction books, not adaptations of other films and TV shows. The big miss here, if we're going on Oscar buzz, is BlacKkKlansman.

 
Television

• Assassination of Gianni Versace -Tom Rob Smith, for the episode "The Man Who Would Be Vogue,” and author Maureen Orth for the nonfiction book Vulgar Favors: Andrew Cunanan, Gianni Versace, and the Largest Failed Manhunt in U.S. History
• The Handmaid's Tale - Bruce Miller and Kira Snyder, for the episode "Holly,” and author Margaret Atwood
• The Looming Tower -Dan Futterman and Ali Selim, for the episode “9/11,” and author Lawrence Wright
• Patrick Melrose - David Nicholls for the episode “Bad News,” based on the series of novels by Edward St. Aubyn
• Sharp Objects - Marti Noxon for the episode “Vanish” and author Gillian Flynn
• A Very English Scandal - Russell T Davies, for A Very English Scandal, and author John Preston

Six nominations due to a tie (hmmm, wonder which two that was?) from 55 TV adaptations considered. The Handmaid's Tale won this category last year and is up for the prize again. We're rooting for A Very English Scandal though Gianni Versace has been hogging all the awards.

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Adapted Screenplay. The WGA awards rarely line up exactly with Oscar due to different eligibility requirements, but as with the USC scripters they can signify strength. For my final Oscar predictions I'm going with BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me, and If Beale Street Could Talk from the WGA nods and adding Leave No Trace from the USC nominations. The fifth slot is a very difficult call between three blockbusters (Black Panther, A Star is Born, and Crazy Rich Asians), and one indie (Death of Stalin). I've decided to opt for a surprise appearance by Crazy Rich Asians. It's the best opportunity to reward it anywhere and it was one of the signature films of the year. If it doesn't score here it's likely to be shut out entirely.

Original Screenplay. This one is also a difficult call and I make it with a heavy heart! I've been predicting the same five films for a good long while now: The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, First Reformed, and Vice . I'm afraid I'll have to drop First Reformed. The Paul Schrader religious crisis drama hasn't done well in the precursors due to the lack of a campaign and, presumably, its tough subject matter. Still, it's a critically beloved film from a famous writer/director who has never been acknowledged so it might still squeeze itself in. That said Eighth Grade and A Quiet Place both made the WGA list and Cold War has been gaining steam. In the end I'm going with Eighth Grade because both Bo Burnham and Elsie Fisher, an adorable duo, have been a steady presence all season despite the lack of robust campaigning from A24 and the movie stands out from the pack. Our favourite indie have been weirdly silent this year, despite strong films, which has also hurt First Reformed).

Related
Screenplay Oscar Charts
Blueprints (Screenplay Article Series)

Comments

[Ryan T.]

It'd be fun if the Oscars nominate CRAZY RICH ASIANS, but I'm not holding my breath. The category is pretty packed this year and that's the one category it hasn't had any luck in cracking all awards season. But hey strangers things...

[Suzanne]

Your resistance to predicting A Star Is Born in adapted screenplay is befuddling to me (especially since it's at the expense of another strong prediction - you've predicted Wildlife, The Death of Stalin, and now Crazy Rich Asians in that fifth slot).

I love Crazy Rich Asians and would nominate it in several categories, but it will probably come up with a goose egg on Tuesday.

Sadly, you're probably right about First Reformed.

[Me]

I'm gonna go ahead and predict something I want (The Death of Stalin) in place of Crazy Rich Asians.

Also, Beale Street succeeds more with its direction, so while screenplay is often a consolation prize given the 10 nominees, I think it's shaky. Thinking Cooper might miss in director, so I'll just vacilitate between these two for the 5th spot, with Black Panther the most likely to spoil, and You Were Never Really Here as the darkhorse.

Original Screenplay I think First Reforrmed gets in and that Eight Grade only makes it if Roma misses, and maybe A Quiet Place also in the runming.

Dark horse here The Rider, and also Sorry To Bother You/Blindspotting.

[Mya]

The Death of Stalin gets in over Crazy Rich Asians. It winning National Society's screenplay award was a big get.

Erick Anderson said on twitter every film that has won screenplay at the Oscar in recent years has been nominated at USC. Blackkklansman missing makes me wonder if Beale Street is are front runner, which would make it's possible Best Pic nomination more of a sure thing.

[markgordonuk]

Nat please don't give up on First Reformed,i'm counting on you to beat this drum till Monday.

[leon]

Nathaniel, you know The Ballad of Buster Scruggs is actually competing for Adapted Screenplay?
According to Jeff Sneider, the AMPAS will consider the Coens as adapted.

[Edward L.]

I hope more than anything that First Reformed gets in. Its Critics Choice win was a huge get at just the right time. Perhaps it will?

[Suzanne]

BFCA awarded Gillian Flynn Best Adapted Screenplay for Gone Girl, so there is precedent for their winner in a Screenplay category to forego an Oscar nomination. Still, every other winner (since 1995) has been nominated for an Oscar, and most of them have won.

[Soshua]

My dream line up?

Original :

First Reformed - Eighth Grade - The Favourite - The Rider - Tully

Adapted :

Leave no Trace - If Beale Street Could Talk - Can you ever forgive me? - Wildlife - The Death of Stalin

[Abigail]

@Soshua

Seven women nominated* would be a dream! THE dream!

* Tully, The Favourite, The Rider, Can You ever forgive me?, Leave no Trace, Wildlife

[Peggy Sue]

I'm so surprised by all the screenplay nominations that A Star Is Born is getting when it's clearly the weakest aspect of the movie.

[Karen Silkwood]

Any chance for a surprise Private Life nomination? Still holding out hope...

[ben1283]

I think Leave No Trace gets in. It feels like there's momentum behind it generally, and this will be an easier nomination to get than Director and Supporting Actress. It also diverges fairly drastically from the novel on a major plot point, and it's a smart, interesting writing choice.

Not sure why Handmaid's Tale is being nominated for Adapted since it's no longer basing itself on the book!