WATCH AT HOME!
Film Bitch History
Oscar History
Welcome

The Film Experience™ was created by Nathaniel R. Gemini, Cinephile, Actressexual. All material herein is written and copyrighted by Nathaniel or a member of our team as noted.

 

Powered by Squarespace
Don't Miss This!
Comment Fun

Soundtracking: Hustlers

"YES, this soundtrack was soooo good!!! The Fiona Apple 'Criminal' dance, instantly iconic." - JWB

"Does anyone remember Demi Moore in STRIPTEASE? They had her dancing to sad Annie Lennox songs. smh." - David

Keep TFE Strong

We're looking for 500... no 461 Patron SaintsIf you read us daily, please be one.  Your suscription dimes make an enormous difference. Consider...

I ♥ The Film Experience

THANKS IN ADVANCE

Interviews

Directors of For Sama


recent
Lulu Wang (The Farewell)
Ritesh Batra (Photograph)
Schmidt & Abrantes (Diamantino)
Wanuri Kahiu (Rafiki)
Jia Zhang-ke (Ash is Purest White)

What'cha Looking For?
Subscribe
« Review: "Glass" | Main | Final Predictions: All Visual Categories »
Thursday
Jan172019

Final Predictions: Best Actor & Best Actress

Other than the shorts, which we'll get to this weekend, we're all finished with our final Oscar predictions. Though we're at the top two most discussed categories, I regret to inform that this will surely be anti-climactic since I'm sticking with previous predictions in both cases. But here's why...

BEST ACTOR
It is with heavy heart that we acknowledge that Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) doesn't even appear to be running second in the Best Actor race, and currently behind both Christian Bale (Vice) and Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) despite giving the most soulful and even most technically impressive performance of this trio, all while directing himself and guiding a mostly non-professional actress to major heights through both intimate screen partnering and direction. We can't fathom why that's not appealing enough for a win but apparently it would have only worked if Jackson Maine had been a real life figure because voters are still more impressed with actors who pretend to be other famous people than actors who create fully believable human beings from scratch through skill and imagination. 'But who's complaining,' he trails off while very much still complaining. Nevertheless those three are mortal locks. There's a fourth lock we believe though some feel otherwise. Viggo Mortensen has been the sole nominee of his film both times he's been up for Best Actor, so anyone thinking that he's vulnerable for a major Best Picture threat, which Green Book is, like it or not, should probably think again. That leaves just one spot open which would have easily gone to Mahershala Ali, also from Green Book if the film had been campaigned as it should have without trying to game the system.

Nevertheless there is one spot open. Though John David Washington has been doing well in the precursors for his subtle reactive performance in BlacKkKlansman, those aren't the kind of roles that generally lead you to a nomination. Instead we're sticking by our original gut instinct that Ethan Hawke is going to receive his third acting nomination for a much showier role as an alcoholic dying priest in First Reformed. He's utterly dominated the critics awards and if there had been a significant campaign he'd never have missed for this career best work. If he does miss, it's only from the lack of a campaign. Still, isn't it weird that only six men seem remotely possible? Ben Foster, Ryan Gosling, Willem Dafoe, John C Reilly, Joaquin Phoenix, Lucas Hedges, and Robert Redford all received fine reviews this year and at least one notal precursor nomination each but none of them seem to have managed any traction. 

BEST ACTRESS
Best Actress is the same story at first and then goes off the rails! You've got four locks: Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, and Melissa McCarthy, and one open spot. But here's where the stories diverge. Best Actor has only two possible outcomes but there are still SEVERAL possibilities in Best Actress. Emily Blunt has the head start and the statistical advantage having been honored at every televised precursor thus far for Mary Poppins Returns. But, if she's vulnerable, which most people (including me) feel she is, it's because of the nature of the role -- Julie Andrews win, while delicious, was always the most atypical of Oscar wins in this category -- and the anti-climactic reception of the film (which was meant to be a Best Picture nominee and a blockbuster rather than just an Oscar player and a big hit.) If Blunt falls, the possibilities for a surprise ending to the Best Actress nomination race feel endless. Or endless in the way an Oscar race can feel endless i.e. there being several imaginable outcomes instead of just two or three.

Yalitza Aparacio might make it to represent Roma and Alfonso Cuarón has been working hard to consistently position her as the heart of the film, often discussing her rather than his own triumph, in his acceptance speeches. Nicole Kidman might make it for Destroyer because she always works for it, is in a good career moment, and voters love a woman who deglams. Toni Collette might make it because there's true passion for her performance even if that passion is completely niche. Viola Davis might make it for Widows, and if she does BAFTA will look prescient, indicating that she's a big enough star now that, like Meryl, she might be able to nab a nomination out of thin air from her own prestige in an otherwise underperforming film. Elsie Fisher might even make it because Eighth Grade has been a steady presence in the precursors, even for the young writer/director Bo Burnham (who recently nabbed a DGA nomination for first feature). That's SIX women fighting for one spot. In short something surprising could happen! And that list does not even include our personal lost cause darling Carey Mulligan or Globe nominee Rosamund Pike, or European Film Award best actress winner Joanna Kulig from Cold War (a film that was surging around voting week) or Support the Girls' Regina Hall (a critical cause but for a tiny film voters aren't likely to have seen, given that $129,000 gross -- from our knowledge no film has ever received an acting nomination for a gross that low unless the film was a qualifying release or came out just before voting). That many viable options for voters means, we think, that Blunt won't have as much trouble keeping her spot as she otherwise would  have. Unless there's concentrated love for one rival that we weren't able to see in the precursors, she'll nab the spot. Yalitza Aparacio is in the best position to knock Blunt out on the strength of her film but Aparacio has been there all season as an obvious way to love on the film and hasn't received any nominations or prizes of note for it. We think she would have by now if that were going to happen. (Yes, yes, she made that Critics Choice list but they allowed seven nominess this year so it doesn't mean much).

CHECK OUT ALL THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS HERE

PrintView Printer Friendly Version

EmailEmail Article to Friend

Reader Comments (87)

I would say there's no shot that Ali would have made it for Best Actor. But for certain it wouldn't be easy. You rarely see two leads of the same gender being nominated, and Viggo plays a real character, so I have a hard time seeing Ali having even a good chance, much less be a clear favorite for a nod.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

I am at the edge of my seat waiting to see who gets these 5th spots. 6-7 people with legitimate shots at only 1 spot. Bonkers!

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSawyer

And I agree Ali would have made the Best Actor 5 - but at the expense of Mortensen.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSawyer

I'm going to be so disappointed if Hawke doesn't make it. I will judge this year's nominations on the basis of whether or not he is nominated.

What is going on with A24 this year? Why aren't they campaigning for Collette, First Reformed, and Eighth Grade?

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Julia Roberts should totally be in the running for BEN IS BACK. It’s a shame the film was never brought into wide release

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterDAVID

Yalitza Aparicio was good but I think she fails to become the heart of "Roma" which would have been more emotional if the film had been told from the point of view of one of the kids. Her story at times seems a bit melodramatic- specially that endless birth scene

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJaragon

Ahead of Viggo? There's literally no way. There's a reason why he opted to go supporting.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

I think Davis easily slips into the fifth spot. That BAFTA nomination is a sign. Hopefully.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

Ugh. Cooper should be winning Best Actor in a walk; it's very disappointing to see him behind Bale and Malek now.

I'd love to see Washington and Hawke edge out Mortensen. I thought the two lead performances in GREEN BOOK were slightly overdone, though I concede they were probably precisely in tune with what Farrelly wanted.

For the 5th slot in Actress, I'd be happy with Blunt, just fine with Davis, overjoyed with Collette, surprised but pleased if it's Kulig and a little disappointed if it is Aparicio, who was good but not as strong as the others (I could never forget she was non-professional).

A shame no one seemed to see WILDLIFE. I will catch up soon with SUPPORT THE GIRLS and EIGHTH GRADE but will probably have to wait months to see DESTROYER and A PRIVATE WAR. But let us give thanks for an *amazing* year for actresses (even more than usual!).

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSteve G

@ Me Ali is a real character. They're both playing real people. And the role itself, would have put Ali ahead of Mortensen. The studio put him in supporting for obvious reasons: he's black, lesser years in the industry and still proving his worth.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMorgan (the 1st)

Every year there always seems to be a shocking omission for what was once a lock in an acting category. I think it’s gonna happen in Actress, with McCarthy getting left out, and Aparicio and Kidman making it in.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBarryyorkbrooks

Also, Nathaniel dropped Viola Davis completely after the BAFTA nod. What up wit dat?

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMorgan (the 1st)

I think the shocking snub this year will be Viggo and John David will take his place.

I think Emily missing BAFTA is telling. Just have a hunch Nicole will be the shocker.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

You're sticking with Blunt. I say Yalitza.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

Morgan (The 1st);

His character is a real CHARACTER, that's what I meant. Much showier role.


Ali went supporting because he had a better chance there. He was never gonna have a better chance than Viggo does, unless it's one of those big snubs.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

@Suzanne - a cash-flow problem? I doubt they can shell out millions of dollars for these campaigns like the way Netflix is doing for Roma. But it is incredibly disappointing.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMDA

I’ll keep my hope alive for Michelle Pfeiffer in WHERE IS KYRA until that nomination morning! Hope that she’ll break that record for a film with such a low box office result ($59,717) to land an acting nomination. Hope that perhaps the occasional voter ended up seeing her film at home through Redbox or On Demand, or after watching ANT-MAN AND THE WASP in the theaters or MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS/MOTHER! while flipping channels on HBO/Showtime and being reminded of her buzzy leading performance, or after seeing her land a Best Actress nom at one of the the first awards groups (Gotham Awards) to kick-off the season. Hope that she can snag that final spot, and surprise everyone.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterGeorge P.

@Morgan: Viola is there, Nathaniel just mistakenly put a pic of Rosamund in her place.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

I've still got a bad feeling about McCarthy in Best Actress...I absolutely ADORED the film and her performance, but it just doesn't feel like a lock to me. Fingers crossed I'm wrong.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterZach

Said it before. Will say it again, and I am not being churlish. The tepid response to MPR is down to the large UK contingent of Oscar voters. Lots of UK critics and viewers didn't love the film and Blunt's strange accent work is really distracting and obvious to UK viewers but understandably undetectable to US ears. Come on - how often do BAFTA pass up the opportunity to nominate a Brit!? The clue is in the snub.

I predict Collette or Fisher to make it in.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterevangelina

Actor

Cooper - Bale - Mortensen - Malek - Dafoe or Washington or Foster

Actress

Colman - Close - McCarthy - Gaga (vomit) - T. Mckenzie / Davis / Théron / Blunt / Aparicio / The Girl from Cold War

Actresses always more interesting!

My ideal ballot?

Actor: Bale - Dafoe - Pryce - Foster - Washington

Actress: Colman - Close - McCarthy - Théron - Mckenzie

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSoshua

That 5th slot for actress is a tough one. Blunt looked poised, but her buzz seemed to die down a bit with the BAFTA snub. Aparicio is the type of actress who could get in on the coattails of the film, and sometimes they like to throw in a foreign language performance if it's high profile enough these days (Sandino Moreno, Cotillard, Riva, Huppert...). Collette surely has enough respect for her career but I think they just won't get past the horror movie things she had to to in the film. And Kidman just feels like she's more likely to go in supporting. I think Aparicio by a hair.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

That Green Book pic: True Detective season 4?

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterParanoid Android

Actor-wise, I agreed w Nat's five, I sad tt Hawke had sucked up ALL the crtics luv n Dafoe is left in the dust! I really hope both can make it in but i guess thr's only room for one passion pick now n Hawke def has the edge over Dafoe.

I believe the studio had put Ali in supp w his explicit consent. He certainly wld b nom in Lead had he campaign thr, but yes, it will b at the expense of Mortenson. They r gaming the sys to ensure both leads r nom, w Ali sweeping in the supp category, w his leading role.

Actress-wise, I oso tink it will be the same five Nat predicted.

Alotsa pple r saying Blunt will miss after the Bafta snub, but she still hit alotsa precursor awards n is v much beloved by the actors branch, judging fr her one-two punch at SAG.

Bonus point: A Quiet Place look poised to crack the Best Pic nine, n this will only increase her odds agst the other wildcard choices. Alots pundits (Anne Thompson fr Indiewire, Erik fr Awards Watch) r still rallying behind Aparicio, but her status as a non pro actor actually work agst her, n I believe voters prefer to honor real professional actors

I'd say Blunt swops up to the last spot, w a ☔ !!

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

The only way to reward Cooper for ASIB is by giving him Best Actor. I'm standing by my stance here, as Malek is not even that good and I refuse to think Bale is winning a second one.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterCraver

I would LOVE to see Viola Davis slip in as a surprise nominee. But without smaller precursors, I think the BAFTA was more an award for McQueen. I do think Blunt will be snubbed again, but probably for someone like Kidman or Collette who both have a ton of passion for their performances. Collette feels like she could be the “shock” nominee - but her film is hard to make it through for non-horror fans, that I think it’s the one hump.

I still think Bradley could win. I think support will shift for him at SAG.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

I’m having trouble imagining Blunt getting any #1 passion votes like I can for Aparicio, Kidman, Collette, and Fisher. I may be biased, because I personally was shocked by how little Blunt gets to do in MPR.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRoger

It's just funny anyone thinks Ali would make it over Mortenson. Literally 0% chance.

Lol, seriously people.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

Me—there’s no such thing as literally 0 percent chance. It’s the Oscars, where in 2019 the shoddy Bohemian Rhapsody is a likely candidate for Best Picture.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

@George P, -- Like you, I can dream about Ms. Pfeiffer's getting a nom, but it ain't going to happen. The indie studio apparently has no money to promo it. Michelle finally does an essentially solo film (first since Dangerous Minds or at least since Cheri if you count that as 'solo'), and an indie film and she picks a movie that is released in name only and essentially goes to DVD. I'm hoping the critica praise she got is enough to get her to do another such meaty role.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered Commenteramk

I'm a huge Emily Blunt fan, I've been following her career intensely since 2006, That's 12 years of worship now!

She has been snubbed a number of times on nominations morning BUT that 5th Best Actress slot needs to go to Toni Collette. Sometimes a brilliant performance is a brilliant performance.

The Viola talk annoys me, she doesn't deserve to be in the conversation, that's a borderline one-dimensional character.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterYavor

I would not like Davis or Kidman getting in

I go with Blunt Solely on The Quiet Place

love. But it will be for MPR. Not deserving IMO

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRdf

Yavor—preach! Toni deserves that nomination. It’s in her DNA—it’s a matter of Hereditary.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

I don't know why Bradley is fading. Is it because they don't take him seriously and he is not a suck up like Rami? No idea. I am fascinated to see whether Nicole or Julia have any power left to break in. Otherwise it seems all calculated in advance, and I don't care who is nominated or wins.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJono

Imagine thinking Viola Davis gives a one dimensional performance. As if she could ever.

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterKiki

Here are mine- this is not an easy year!

BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Mortensen, like McCarthy, is our snub. Not competitive, outshined by his supporting man- and many think his accent is a little too much (like Blunt in Poppins). John David Washington is not missing this nod. Not to pull the race card, but this is a Spike Lee film we're talking about. Lee has been snubbed in the past with having his movies nominated but only white actor gets in (Do the Right Thing, Danny Aiello). I doubt the academy would do that again. This film centers around his character. And he's Denzel's son to boot. Nope, he makes it. This can't be an OscarSoWhite again. Especially again, in a Spike Lee movie. Lee is overdue. And the academy (hopefully) knows this. Snubs are just that- things we don't expect. I think Cooper has the passion to get nominated. I think Hawke def has the passion. And Bale and Malek are competitive. So Viggo sits in the middle. And I say nay.

BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

This is such a tough tough call! I will be changing the slots forever. I DO want to say that we must remember the big snubs for Tom Hanks and Emma Thompson for Captain Phillips and Saving Mr. Banks, respectfully. Both of those actors had gotten all the precursor nods needed (Thompson winning National Board of Review, often seen as the Kiss of Death for winning an Oscar btw). And then both were snubbed. Mind you, I loathed Saving Mr. Banks. And like the Poppins movie, it was all about Disney and magic and it just felt so - yuck. I can't explain it any other way! But even so, THEY were deemed in. They were NOT competitive to win. So they were filler nominees. This happened to Amy Adams in Arrival. She was not seen as competitive. Thus, she was snubbed for a passion nominee (Negga I believe).

In this case, I almost want to say Lady Gaga could be the snub. She isn't competitive to win now that Glenn Close and Olivia Colman seem ahead of her (yeah she tied the critics choice but so what). If she wins the SAG, then I will say she's in. But it's between her and Melissa McCarthy who I think will possibly be shut out for more passion nominees like Kidman (transformation roles are always really strong with voters). And Kidman is an artist, not a popcorn actress- if that makes sense. She can get nominated without her movie making a lot of money. Ditto for the likes of Winslet, Blanchett, Mirren, Dench, and of course- Streep. The same cannot be said of actresses like Sandra Bullock or Jennifer Aniston. If The Blind Side had been a flop at the box-office, would Bullock have even been nominated? Doubtful. It was the $200 MIL gross that helped get her that statue, on top of The Proposal. But Jennifer Aniston's Cake film bombed. Even though she was a big star. She was considered just that- a popcorn actor. So if no one saw her movie, she didn't make it. And she lost- to the superior Marion Cotillard in 2 Days, 1 Night (which I called!) Sometimes you can be both (Tom Cruise, Magnolia). But you get what I mean.

Sorry for the ramble.

I think Emily Blunt gets nominated, but for A Quiet Place and in Supporting. I don't think she makes it for Mary Poppins. I also think McCarthy is being outshined by costar Richard E. Grant, and like Hanks and Thompson, sits "comfortably" in the middle and won't be given the passion push needed to crack the top 5. I have Aparicio in because she is the heart of Roma, and they do love a foreign actress here. HOWEVER- every other foreign actress nominee has been a critics winner/industry nominee. So Critics Choice aside, she has not. So I could drop her for McCarthy last minute.
_________________________________________________

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS
Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Everyone assumes both Favourite ladies make it in. But I am hearing Weisz is stronger. With a race this tight I think it's Stone that gets booted in order to keep King and Blunt in contention, as I see the SAG race as a three-way between Blunt, Adams and Robbie- and the Oscars between Blunt, Adams, Robbie and King.

Margot Robbie's performance is borderline camp- and voters love that stuff! She does it all, scary makeup and lots of juice. She plays a real person, she's hot off her I, Tonya nomination. She scored SAG and BAFTA nods. This is the dark horse to watch out for because King's missing SAG nod means she's going to be lucky to make the final five. Which is too bad, because if King WAS a SAG nominee, we would have a herd mentality and people would check her off.

I don't want to doubt Amy Adams, but it's such a blah performance. She always makes it in for Ensemble roles where she's the supportive girlfriend/wife. Only Junebug was truly special in terms of her nodded work in my eyes; maybe American Hustle (which I hated). Didn't care for The Master or The Fighter. And Doubt was laughably bad. There are reasons she was snubbed for Big Eyes and Arrival. The academy doesn't take her seriously enough to carry a movie. Which is a shame, because Enchanted (2007) was a deserving mark in her career. I am back and forth at dropping her, but she's in an ensemble piece so up she goes. Hopefully not a win.

If Claire Foy makes the cut, Ryan Gosling should too. I cannot see the reasoning behind nominating Foy but making First Man an after though everywhere else. If Foy makes it, the movie will probably do better then we think. I am betting the farm she doesn't. We have enough supportive wives in the mix as it is.

Blunt gets the deserving nod for A Quiet Place (SAG nominee). The fact that she's a double SAG nominee speaks volumes from the actor's branch and means they are recognizing it as her best year to date. But this is the movie she gets it for. With no King, the SAG winner is a head scratcher. I'm leaning towards Blunt because I don't see her losing twice. 15 years ago it could easily happen (Patricia Clarkson was double SAG nodded in 2003 and lost both). But in the Twitter age? I don't think so. And no one seems passionate about Adams performance either.

Weisz is the other spoiler. Again, I think it's Emma Stone who gets kicked out only because this is a VERY VERY tight race. Are two women from the same film going to make it? With THIS type of competition. Usually double supporting actress nominees come when there are weak lineups for the ladies. Not this time.

I think it's King vs Blunt vs Robbie for the Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Playing real people, notably an infamous president, helps. And this time it's def not category fraud. Rockwell nails Bush. Grant, Elliot, Ali are all in- and in a way competitive (though Elliot missed that SAG nod). Driver makes it by a hair, as I think Timothee just doesn't go. His movie is the least talked about of the list we see- and yeah, he's a lead- but I think again- competition is very close. Someone has to go. Vice, despite the mixed reaction, is still causing reaction. Timothee's film is not.

This could all change Monday night when I reanalyze. Good luck everyone!

January 17, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJasonMovieGuy

Zach -- you'll notice i also didn't lock up Melissa McCarthy on the chart. I'm a smidgeon worried for her. I see a scenario where a surprise spoiler nominee kicks out not Blunt but McCarthy. That feels possible to me.

Me & Sawyer -- both Viggo & Ali would have made it. People forget all the time that we used to have less category fraud and both actors if a film was well loved would make it in: see thelma & louise, terms of endearment, amadeus, etcetera. It was only all the years of category fraud that convincd people it couldn't happen. It only doesn't happen because they don't even try anymore!

January 18, 2019 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

What if Yalitza and Toni Collette make it for Best Actress? Passion votes? The snubbed one would be McCarthy, who contrary to what I thought all season long, doesn't seem to have this nom completely in the bag. Yes, I will eat crow if Melissa doesn't make it. -_-

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJones

@JasonMovieGuy I've also been toying with the idea that Gaga could be snubbed, but in the end I think it's highly unlikely. Hitting all the major award show precursors and even winning one speak against that possibility. Which is unfortunate, because her performance was so uneven and brilliant performances like Toni Collette are going to be left out. And if Gaga wins SAG, it'll be a crime against nature.

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

My Best Actor prediction: Cooper, Bale, Malek, Mortensen, Washington, with the Oscar going to Malek.

My Best Actor preference: Hawke, Washington, Foster, Dafoe, Colman Domingo, with the Oscar going to Hawke. Rooting hardest for Mortensen not to make it (much as I love him) so that Hawke and Washington both can.

My Best Actress prediction: Germanotta, Close, Colman, McCarthy, Davis (or maybe Blunt), with the Oscar going to Close.

My Best Actress preference: Fisher, Collette, Colman, Blunt, Hall, of whom anyone would be a deserving winner. Mulligan, Aparicio, and Pike would also be deserving. Rooting hardest for Fisher to take the fifth slot. Would be delighted to see Collette knock MCarthy out too.

My Best Supporting Actor prediction: Ali, Chalamet, Driver, Rockwell, Grant, with the Oscar going to Ali. When in doubt, I assume that they’ll shit on my favourites to troll me personally, so I’m worried for both Grant and Elliott. (I still haven’t forgiven them for not nominating Steve Buscemi for Ghost World in 2001, or for snubbing both Ralph Fiennes and David Oyelowo in 2014.)

My Best Supporting Actor preference: Ali, Grant, Elliott, Hornsby, Yeun, with the Oscar going to Grant, although I love all five of these actors dearly and would not begrudge Ali a second Oscar. Very much hoping it happens for Grant and for Elliott. A sudden nomination for Yeun would thrill me and blow my mind. Driver is a great actor, but doesn’t deserve it this year, and neither Rockwell nor Chalamet deserves it this time around either. So of course I’m predicting that all three of them will get in and Yeun and Elliott will not. <I>When in doubt, assume the Oscar nominations are gonna suck.

My Best Supporting Actress prediction: King, Adams, Stone, Weisz, Foy, with the Oscar going to Adams. (Never underestimate institutional racism.)

My Best Supporting Actress preference: King, Foy, McKenzie, Debicki, Yeoh, with the Oscar going to King. (I like Claire Foy a lot, but would be even happier if McKenzie or Yeoh rode in and stole the fifth slot.)

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterThe Mighty Rhino

The Mighty Rhino - so if King loses the Oscar in a category that has rewarded four actresses of colour in the past 10 years - that is institutional racism?

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterevangelina

@ evangelina

That's such a "my best friend is black so I can't be racist" excuse. Where are all the Black women who've won in Leading Actress? Or Asian actors in any category? What about Native American actors?

The academy has always had an overwhelming white voting body. Some (and that's only some) actors of color winning awards doesn't mean it goes away.

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMya

I would never deny there are problems within the Academy and the film industry on a wider level. That much is evident to most people I would think. And I only wish there was more diverse representation across all cagegories, especially Leading Actress.

But in a category that does - thankfully - reward women of colour on a regular basis for a stream of excellent performances, King not winning on this occasion would be racism plane and simple? That is absurd.

She is very good in her film but the studio have done a terrible job of campaigning for the movie. That's the crux of it. As a consequence, Best Picture is probably out of the equation and King has even more stats stacked up against her as a result. Coupled with SAG screener issues and the fact IBSCT hasn't even released in the UK yet so it wasn't on BAFTA voters' radar, then we have one precarious frontrunner in King.

I think she may well win because the performance, goodwill and previous wins will carry her through. But if she doesn't, blame the studio, not the Academy on this occasion.

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterevangelina

Evangelina - I’ve noticed you’ve said that before about Blunt’s accent, and as a Brit too (Londoner), I have to respectfully disagree. Certainly she’s more clipped and cut-glass than Julie Andrews, and I think that’s peoples issue in a way, that she did her own interpretation, rather than doing a direct Andrews impersonation. Her cockney accent is a bit cartoonish, but it’s definitely supposed to be.

In an ideal world, Toni Collette would be bumping Gaga out of the line-up, not Blunt. So it’s Blunt, Close, Collette, Colman, McCarthy.

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJB

JB - Not got a problem with her Cockney. Just her 'Princess Margaret' as she referred to it. But different strokes for different folks. I will shut up about it now. I would like her to be nominated anyhow so she can become Academy Award nominee Emily Blunt - but if it was for AQP that would be great.

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterevangelina

Can Lady Gaga be a surprise snub or is it just wishful thinking from me? I feel like her name will not be called.

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterV.

It only doesn't happen because they don't even try anymore!

The Kids Are All Right and Foxcatcher all attempted this and only one nominee got in.

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

Also Frost/Nixon.

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterleon

Perhaps intelligent voters will replace Viggo with Ali in the Lead category. Seems that in our hyper-sensitive climate, voters might ‘punish’ Viggo like they did James Franco/The Disaster Artist. (Chances are slim for this since voters just do as they’re told and put Vidanker & Rooney in Supporting because that’s what the promotional material tells them to do).
Really hope that Ethan Hawke makes it in.

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterTOM

BA same as NAT I thought Bale and Mortensen were bad in their films,Malek did the best he could,Cooper is that Oscar poison a romantic male lead and that's why he won't win but hell yeah he and Hawke really should win,JDW too early.

BAss Collette for the 5th slot as she has been in the coversation all yr long but Roma is picking up real steam as is Yalitza,Kidman probably not,Davis was a fluke and Blunt will appear maybe in supporting.

January 18, 2019 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>