Questions we're asking ourselves about Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor
Friday, November 15, 2019 at 6:15PM All Oscar charts are being updated over the next four days but we started with Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor because there are so many questions haunting us. So go ahead and answer the following quandaries if you can...?
1. Can Tom Hanks finally break his strange Oscar curse?
Before anyone had seen A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood he was a lock "on paper" in Best Actor. But the movie turned out to not be a biopic at all but something far more creative and we'd argue more successful than a biopic would have been, in which Mr. Rogers is more of a symbol and catalyst for another man's journey. It's a gorgeous movie but the switcheroo from expectations to reality will likely throw some Oscar voters as well as general moviegoers. Hanks has been delivering better performances of late than the kind he used to win Oscars for but AMPAS hasn't nominated him in 19 years. Should we expect that they'll continue that "you already got yours" cold shoulder rather than be predicting him?
2. Is Brad Pitt really a lock for Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood?
We locked him up early since he was the universal choice early in the year for 'most likely to go the distance' but is that really a done deal. We know from past complaints (hi Diane Ladd!) that not every actor in the actor's branch likes it when gigantic movie stars go "supporting" when their name is above the title. He's brilliant in the film but in a total movie star way that makes it look effortless and "effortless" is not a word that is often used to describe Oscar-nominated performances. They like to see you sweat. Is his 'lock' overstated... could he in fact be the high profile omission this year? Furthermore the FYC ads we've seen for the film seem to focus on images of Leo and Margot instead.
3. Will no actors of color make it in the male categories?
Right now the closest possibility appears to be Eddie Murphy who is very enjoyable in Dolemite is My Name... though Netflix might have trouble keeping that film in the conversation (traditional theatrical releases tend to have a longer shelf life for people talking about even if straight to streaming has the advantage of everyone being able to see you all at once.) Plus, Best Actor is extra stacked this year and if Murphy made it in along with the very-much-expected Adam Driver, the legendary Robert DeNiro, and the rising possibility of Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes that would be Netflix owning 80% of the category which seems far-fetched to put it lightly. In Supporting Actor there are several viable candidates but none of them have built much momentum at this writing. Will there be a late-breaking impactful moment for someone? A lot of people are talking about Song Kang Ho from Parasite right now but it's worth remembering that the Supporting categories almost never have had subtitled performances in them. (Marina de Taveras was a shocking nomination for several reasons last season.)
4. Can Shia Labeouf's successful year wield any awards results?
Hollywood loves a comeback and/or rebirth and doesn't Shia Labeouf more than qualify this season? His year started strong with kind reviews and then sleeper hit status for the indie The Peanut Butter Falcon He quickly chased that release with a very personal indie about his own life. The former child star turned troubled adult actor has exorcized his personal demons onscreen by playing his own father in Honey Boy. It would be a gimmicky thing given the bald cap and deglamming and stunt casting but for the obvious anguished heart poured into the production. At first we thought Honey Boy was just an Independent Spirit hopeful but a strong per screen average in its first weekend suggests audiences are actually interested. Might actors really love his confessional swing for the fences?
5. Is our love for Alan Alda clouding our judgment of his Supporting Actor bid?
Netflix has him out on the campaign trail where he's a huge loveable hit... but the Marriage Story advertising barely acknowledge him. Why aren't they pushing even harder when it looks like a very possible get due to the massive love the industry feels for him?
6. Who are we underestimating on the Actor or Supporting Actor charts?
Might Anthony Hopkins just come along naturally if The Two Popes catches on (as many think it will) despite having no current buzz? Are we silly for dropping Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse just because it didn't really catch on in theatrical release ? What'cha think?
Reader Comments (35)
Dafoe for the win .
I like Dafoe too. He deserves it for delivering his lines while dirt is being shoveled at him.
I hate Bohemian Rhapsody even more if it means Taron Egerton and (especially) Jamie Bell losing out to music biopic fatigue.
Pat: If they don't get nominated, it has nothing to do with Bohemian Rhapsody. Both of them gave very good performances, but none of them (especially Bell) came close to the best of the year. Even yet.
I say it as a person, who had problems with BR and Malek's performance...
As inevitable as the Actor slate is starting to look, I am really surprised by how much movement is in Supporting (and it's my least favorite of the major categories, so I'm glad nothing is settled). It gives me something to anticipate in the next few weeks, which I appreciate. Still think Aldis Hodge in Clemency could come alongside Alfre if Neon gets it together.
This reminds me of 2013 and 2014 Best Actor. Tremendous lineups of contenders and the final nominees paled in comparison to the potential contenders.
I don’t think all 4 of the Netflix men get in. Only Driver and maybe Phoenix feel safe, but fantastic performances feel destined to be left out.
If you recall in those previously mentioned races, the films with the bigger buzz got in despite better performances.
Off Topic: So, Klaus came out today. I watched it. Quick thoughts: Gorgeous 2-D work. Slow pace. Kinda hollow. Uses How You Like Me Now five years past its sell-by date. POSSIBLE nominee (though, they did pass over Arthur Christmas, a better Christmas special than this one, frankly), but not going for the win. THAT fight is between the sequels.
I love Tom Hanks more than two of my uncles but what's the point of giving him another nomination if he's not going to win?
Isn't Pacino co-lead?
Re: point #3:
There are actors that are on the cusp of greater awareness. Jonathan Majors (Supporting for “The Last Black Man in San Francisco”?) is one of the Hollywood Reporter’s Next Gen: Rising Stars Of Tomorrow, and as you have noted, won a Gotham Breakthrough award. He trained at the Yale school of drama, so he’s in this for the long haul, training for skill and range.
Anthony Mackie in “The Banker” is a well liked actor who has proved himself over and over. Maybe there will be more general recognition for his skill?
Speaking of “The Banker”, isn’t it about time that Samuel L. Jackson had another nomination? Is he supporting in this movie? I would even nominate him for “Captain Marvel”, in recognition of how he creates lively characters that move the action along, and keep you interested in the story.
Daniel Kaluuya is an actor that is well known to be good now. People were impressed by his supporting turn last year in “Widows”. With a leading role in this year’s “Queen & Slim” it’s a good bet that he will impress a lot of people again.
I love Dafoe and The Lighthouse, but that movie feels too weird for the Academy... even to nominate an actor they love.
Sony has less capacity than Netflix, and it really feels as though they are pushing OUATIH and Little Women as their main films this year. A Beautiful Day... may have fallen by the wayside, though if it opens big next week, that could change.
More to the point, on both The Lighthouse and A Beautiful Day...., as well as Dolemite: It feels as though this year is completely stacked, far more than usual, with late-breaking releases. I have to wonder if voters will see them all, or if we'll see a year like 2013 (I believe?), in which the vast majority of above-the-line nominations come from Best Picture nominees.
I was so certain that you had made a mistake about Hanks — and was shocked to go back and rediscover that he wasn’t nominated for Captain Phillips. At least he scored a Film Bitch nod for it!
I think Song Kang Ho in supporting is borderline fraud. He is only nominated for lead (along with Choi Woo-shik, his on-screen son) in the Korean movie prizes and I think that's the correct interpretation: 2 male leads, the rest supporting. (Korean movie prizes put Cho Yeo-jeong, rich mom, in lead, but I think there's more room for arguments there and is probably done to free up room for the other women in the movie.)
Pitt should be in for AD ASTRA. Still my favorite lead actor performance of the year.
And in Supporting I'll be pulling for Pacino, who is the MVP of THE IRISHMAN.
Shouldn't Chalamée be on the list for Little Women? I thought there was buzz there...
And I just saw The Lighthouse. It's too crazy - which might spare us some major fraud.
a) Dafoe's not getting nominated. Yes, he's a true lead, but he's in a film that will have no traction elsewhere and won't get critics citations beyond him. He's an Albert Brooks/Dennis Quaid waiting to happen.
b) No. Alda can get in for very little and best picture films, especially actor heavy ones, can have long coattails (Reilly, Weaver)
c) Not yet, but I do think Labouef will get nominated soon. As a side note, the first performance of his that I've seen was American Honey, which he was amazing in.
d) I don't see it happening for non-white actors this year, to be honest. Actress is another story, though.
e) Don't think Brad is a lock.
f) I don't understand how Tom Hanks missed out for Captain Phillips and as such will never predict him again.
Rooting for Pacino to get a second Oscar next year.
An acting icon becoming a two times winner sounds about right.
I'm pretty sure most of the general public would be surprised to find out he has just won once, anyways.
Pitt strikes me more as a lead actor winner in the future and he will definitely have more chances along the way.
I would wait for FORD V. FERRARI and WAVES box-office results (and WAVES performance at indie spirit awards), before dropping Bale and K. Brown so much in their charts. I do believe FORD V. FERRARI will be doing good at the box-office and the AMPAS has learned how to love Bale. I get that Regina King vibe from Brown... Don't know why since I haven't seen WAVES, but I just feel it
I continue to be intrigued by the saga of Tom Hanks and his presently dysfunctional relationship with Oscar. The two time winner holds a unique title in the annals of AMPAS trivia.
In 1947 The Bishop's Wife, a romantic comedy starring Loretta Young and Cary Grant, was nominated for Best Picture. With that nomination, Cary Grant become the actor with the most male leading roles (six) in Best Picture nominees but not receiving a corresponding Best Actor nod. The remainder were The Talk of the Town (1942), Suspicion (1941), The Philadelphia Story (1940), The Awful Truth (1937), and She Done Him Wrong (1933). That record stood for a whooping 70 years.
In 2017, Tom Hanks exceeded Grant's record by playing the leading man in seven Best Picture nominees but not receiving a corresponding Best Actor nod. Those films were The Post (2017), Bridge of Spies (2015), Captain Phillips (2013), Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (2011), Toy Story 3 (2010), The Green Mile (1999), and Apollo 13 (1995).
It's puzzling. Hanks picked up nominations after his two wins, but he hasn't received one in over two decades. He remains popular with AMPAS members, He recently completed two terms on The Board of Governors'
Interestingly, the Academy has often nominated a supporting actor from his films while ignoring Hanks. These include Ed Harris in Apollo 13, Michael Clarke Duncan in The Green Mile, Paul Newman in Road to Perdition, Christopher Walken in Catch Me If You Can, Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson's War, Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips, and Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies.
Perhaps playing Mr. Rogers in this sidestep into the race for supporting actor will finally return Hanks to the list of nominees.
Why has John Turturro in Gloria Bell become totally forgotten?
I do wonder if Taron Egerton's youth and charm and indefatigable campaigning could see him move up and take the 5th slot in Best Actor after all, sort of in the way Eddie Redmayne worked hard for The Theory of Everything.
Couple of things to consider;
For Supporting Actor, I think the win will ultimately go to Pacino due to SAG - SAG has a history of awarding male-up prizes to actors who have won the Oscar in the past but before SAG was in effect; most notably Michael Caine in 1999 (which turned the tide for his Oscar win), and Walken In 2002. Similar thing happened with Denzel winning in 2016 - because he missed for Crowe (who missed for Del Toro) back in 2001, and SAG hadn’t been around for Glory in 1989, Denzel got his make-up SAG award and almost beat Affleck for the Oscar.
Pacino is a legend in the industry and SAG never got the chance to award him - while I think Globes and Critics Choice will jump for Brad Pitt, I think SAG will give Pacino the makeup win and turn the tide like with Caine in 1999.
To me, the issue with a Hanks nomination is that ABDitN’s buzz is at such a low ebb right now - if he got in he could be its sole nomination, which isn’t very common. With such a competitive field and a such a subtle performance, I frankly don’t have him higher than 9th. Instead I’d keep an eye on Hopkins, Lithgow, and Kang-ho (whom I’d see as this year’s Yalitza Aparicio due to Parasite’s strong overall buzz).
In Lead Actor, I feel strangely confident in DiCaprio missing a la Crowe for Master and Comma der. The performance isn’t hugely transformative not as intense as his usual work, Tarantino leads don’t tend to get nominations, and having become seen as ‘due’ so quickly, there’s much less of an incentive to nominate him now that he’s already been awarded (again, like Crowe in 2003). On top of this, his character is ultimately quite passive to the outcome of the film - he’s a character that things happen to, rather than a character who makes bold, story-driving choices. I think he’ll get major guild nominations, but honestly I can barely imagine him actually getting in - in this field no less.
I think (unfortunately) the narrative has turned in such a way that Joaquin Phoenix will steamroll to an Oscar win. Driver will take the vast lion’s share of critics prizes a la Hawke for First Reformed or Chalamet for CMbYN, but industry voters will be turn to Phoenix instead - it’s a performance that tries to make acting look HARD, there’s yelling and crying and Phoenix himself is seen as a very serious veteran. Couple this with Joker’s box office and the cultural
impact Phoenix’s performance has had and honestly I think he’s the safest acting win of the night. As good as Driver is, it feels destined to be the performance that just isn’t showy and easy enough to win the guild awards, and Driver’s relative youth acts against him.
Banderas is as likely, if not more, than Pryce. I thought TFE of all places wouldn’ Push a harmful narrative to his chances. Wait til he gets the nom to do your patented ‘Over sell’ the slight favourite and undersell’ the personal favourite tendency you have. (You’re already defensively overselling Zellweger in a defensive way too early in the race. We know you don’t like her, but she also very likely won’t win)
If Banderas misses the nomination for a star nod for Murphy and a Pryce hamfest, I'm going to riot
I mean, THE LIGHTHOUSE *has* made more money than THE FLORIDA PROJECT and AT ETERNITY'S GATE combined. Once I finally saw FLORIDA, I was floored that people thought that was getting anything beyond Dafoe. That and GATE were both weird and offputting.
I wonder if the sheer number of contenders will basically suffocate voters and everybody will just veer towards the same six names (BFCA will naturally nominate all of them). Who the unlucky party is right now, I don't know. I hope it isn't Banderas is all I know.
James: No, Hanks is tied right now. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is a supporting role. The lead actor in that one was the kid.
Willem Dafoe - what a performance!
Murphy in Dolemite would be a welcome back plus it is a really enjoyable fun well acted movie,it's made with a love and affection for it's subject and Eddie is out there more than he has been foryears,he obv wants it.
Jonathan Majors is great in Last Black Man in San Francisco, deserving of a nomination. I was surprised how quickly that film dropped out of the conversation. Outside of the film festival crowd, most people I talk to have never heard of it.
That said, it’s hard to keep perspective in a conversation where a two-time winner like Hanks is referred to as “cursed.” He was deserving of a nom for Captain Phillips, but he’s doing just fine without that third Oscar.
The guy from ROCKETMAN seems to be at every event. I’ve put off seeing it, but since so many of the contenders are from Netflix films, this could be to his benefit.
I feel tt The Two Popes is a package deal....If Pryce is getting in Best Actor, I dun tink Hopkins will be left off...as of now, I feel Hopkins actually has a better chance than Pryce, since he alr an Oscar winning veteran.
I feel the Actor & Supp Actor race is v much like Actress & Supp Actress, w many overlaps..The Irishman, OUAH, Dolemite, The Two Popes, Marriage Story etc
Actually I tink Alda is likely the only one fr Marriage Story to miss an acting nom. BSA is way too stacked w many borderline, scene-stealing veterans this year!
Geez, they should expand Oscar nominations for these two categories this year.
Banderas, if actors vote according to knowledge of their craft, would walk away with the win, in a heartbeat. Like, there is no question about it.
Objectively speaking it would be a joke...
... a 2nd Oscar for Leo, for a role in which everything is shamelessly written and constructed to earn him an Oscar, in the worst egotrip QT ever had. It is a good film overal, but certainly galaxies away from being a masterpiece.
... an Oscar for Eddie Murphy, a stand up comedian turned actor turned producer playing a stand up comedian turned actor turned producer... basically an iteration of his persona. That is, playing almost himself.
... a 2nd Oscar to Christian Bale for ANOTHER oh my God he transformed himself. Yawn, at this point. He is a great actor, can he get a great role instead of focusing on the Oscarbait?
... an Oscar to Jonathan Pryce (or for Sir Anthony Hopkins) for a role that should have gone to respectively, an argentinian and a bavarian actor. In case of none available, some latin/spanish and German/austrian/swiss actor. I mean, Bruno Ganz as Reitzinger, 2 or 3 years ago, woulld have rocked the world. But no, we have to have the anglophone actors playing the two popes, so we can be more bait.
... but I am realistic, Banderas probably won't win, because Pain and Glory is a foreign language film and he does not have (nor need), the Oscar clips that get the vote, on the contrary, his performance is subtle, restrained and always in the service of the film, the story and his costars.
Actor and Supporting Actor are super-tough. Saw MS over the weekend; hard to see Alda getting in based on role size and impact. Liotta did more with less.
Actor: Driver/Phoenix/DeNiro/DiCaprio/Bale. Fifth spot is tough; could easily go to Banderas and Pryce.
Supporting Actor: Pacino/Pitt/Pesci/Hanks/Hopkins. I do not have a lot of confidence in the latter two! Feels weird to have 5 Oscar winners in the field.
Man, maybe I just don't pay attention so much anymore, but I see literally no chance DiCaprio gets in. None. And while Pitt is best in show, he's clearly a lead. I'm not even sure how DiCaprio is a bigger lead. This isn't Fight Club.
On the contrary, Dafoe is more supporting in The Lighthouse. Two person film but he's the antagonist to the protagonist. Two people, I get it. But Pattinson is lead. And Hanks is in a supporting role that appears to linger the way Hopkins did in The Silence of the Lambs. Don't see how he doesn't get in alongside Pacino, Dafoe. Then Pesci, Hopkins and the potential surprise packages/they've yet to hit coming up.
When Driver doesn't win for Marriage Story it will be undeserved. I meab...wow. I mean wow.
Also, where is Hagerty? She's probably even better than Dern and it's supposedly a weak year. She has to be somewhere in the running.