Oscar narratives being pushed out of Telluride & Venice
Monday, September 2, 2019 at 12:00PM by Nathaniel R
Hmmm... let's see Joaquin Phoenix Joker and Adam Sandler Uncut Gems for Best Actor (blargh and double-blargh*), Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story, A24's Waves for everything, Renee Zellweger's second Oscar for Judy, Christian Bale for Ford v Ferrari, Ad Astra for something or other (or will this go the First Man route of being wildly praised at its festival bow and then too "reserved" emotionally to actually catch on?) and... what else... what else.... Sure we missed something.
It all feels dizzying right now since everything just began happening all at once, as is tradition this week of each year. The numbers of course don't add up. If you accept preemie buzz with no caveats about anything that happens after this week, we already have the Best Actor lineup (Phoenix, Driver, Sandler, Bale, and Banderas) and the supporting actor winner (Brad Pitt, OUATIH). But this is a small sampling of the movies and performances to come in the next few months of the year...
The Oscar race is a marathon, and not a sprint (though it is a shorter marathon this year which could change things slightly... we think mostly likely in the form of no surprises since whatever sticks early is likely to just be what Oscar voters on having no time to shift and begin to think for themselves after the precursors). This cacophony of online voices is but the first wave of critics and pundits trying to force narratives into reality from the high altitudes of Colorado, and the canals of Venice. Some of these narratives will land and some will dissipate as other titles emerge or meet wider and probably less enthusiastic "first!" responses.
We shall see. Excited for Oscar season yet? We leave for TIFF in just a couple of days and then things really explode... at least in front of our movie-mad eyeballs. Chris and I will try to type at you as much as possible from Toronto as we soak up the cinema.
Waves has won raves but will that be enough? Family dramas often struggle at the box office and which of the ensemble will emerge as an Oscar nominee?
* The double-blargh should be explained. This is nothing against Adam Sandler per se, just about the typical Oscar business of non-superb actors having a much easier time winning buzz if they surprise on strange occassions (even if they have no interest in challenging themselves for 95% of their working career) whereas routinely brilliant actors are often taken for granted; just ask Tilda Swinton with her one & done Oscar bout, Kirsten Dunst with her zero nominations, or Annette Bening and Glenn Close with their never-winning status despite multiple statue-worthy performances.
Reader Comments (59)
Nothing will annoy more than McConaughey as an Oscar winner. Sandler is troublesome for his personal politics.
Swinton's lone supporting nod and win seems so her. But I suspect they'll come around to her eventually like they have for Helen Hunt and Sally Field. And possibly Renee Zellweger of all people this year.
I do think Renne and Scarlett will be the final 2 to face off though as I can't see any1 else bar Ronan or Theron usurping those 2.
/3rtful --- well, you realize this is your own idioscyncratic thing though, right, the intense McConaughey hatred? Whether or not you hate him on a personal level his body of work is far more impressive than a lot of "one and done" Oscar winners... definitely he's a stronger and more ambitious actor than Adam Sandler fer crying out loud!
Just remembering how good Adam Sandler was in Punch-Drunk Love... and I’m OK with this potential nomination.
You are going to hate this season, I fear LOL
Adam Sandler is political? That strikes me as odd. Who knew?
I haven't seen a Sandler movie in ages, but he really is a good dramatic actor. Punch-Drunk Love, anyone? And there's Spanglish; I'm not a big fan of the movie, but he's pretty great in it. I hear good things about his work in Uncut Gems, but the movie itself seems to be pretty divisive. I think it would take a good performance in a universally admired film to get Sandler an Oscar (and maybe even a nomination).
I am thrilled for Renee. Bring on the Reneesaince.
Sandler is problematic for his personal—i.e. artistic—preferences (I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, Jack and Jill, The Ridiculous 6, etc.), not his politics. But to give credit where credit is due, he is pretty noteworthy in The Meyerwitz Stories and Punch Drunk Love, so an Oscar-caliber performance from him wouldn't surprise me.
Is Zellweger this year's Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody? Because there are, amazingly, several people I know who absolutely love the film and rave about his performance, despite the critical drubbings.
God, Dunst deserves so much better than just the smattering of prizes for Fargo, Interview with the Vampire and Melancholia. Will On Becoming a God in Central Florida (in which she's excellent) be her awards-favorite ticket? Fingers crossed.
Sandler in Punch-Drunk Love, Spanglish, Funny People, Reign Over Me, Men Women and Children and The Meyerowitz Stories all show that he's just as dedicated to a performance when he steps out of his comfort zone. He just doesn't want to step out of it often. Either that or auteur filmmakers don't look to him often enough. When he has the material and faith of his producers and the like, he's solid.
Who else can win actress M/C at the GG's but Renee.
I think it is unfair to not praise a performer or actor for getting a role outside their comfort zone. And they are really great in that particular part! An actors filmography can both be a curse and a blessing.
The same thing happens to Jennifer Lopez. She has shown potential with Selena, Out of Sight and The Cell.
I am happy that Adam Sandler is getting his buzz. Well he is not my favorite actor, but it is refreshing to welcome new kind of actors in this crazy award season
Ryan -- it happens on occassion. and yes if the Oscar winners are Adam Sandler and Renee Zellweger it's going to be a difficult year for me given that I just suffered through Glenn Close losing again and i"m not feeling that Annette Bening is going to happen for The Report since people have stopped talking about it and Amazon isn't going to be pushing it hard theatrically.
but if both lead acting prizes are a bummer hopefully i'll be excited about the frontunners (whoever they may be) for supporting.
mark -- i think it's a mistake to assume she'll go M/C when Lady Gaga and Rami Malek both went drama last season for starring roles in music pictures. .
Manuel -- everyone deserves praise when they're good, yes. I'm just saying it's a bit disappointing that people's lowered expectations allow the praise to be so crazed for certain types of performers. Adam Sandler has had a LOT of power and creative control during his career and has chosen quite consciously to only challenge himself once every 18 years or so. This is not someone who has thwarted ambitions that we can feel bad for because of missed opportunities. This is not someone who was eager to stretch that Hollywood wouldn't consider. His career has been his choice with a degree of autonomy that few performers ever get. He could have made anything he wanted with his Netflix blank check and has only made movies that got terrible reviews that werent in the least bit ambitious despite his control over them.
Nathaniel, you didn't explain your blargh when it came to Joaquin Phoenix. Is your issue with him, his acting, or this particular performance?
I like when a regular actor wins with an only great performance (the first of Hilary Swank),
I understand when a great actor wins even with a not-so-impressive work (Al Pacino)
I tolerate when a limited actor gets nominated with a striking performance (Kate Hudson)
But what i just can´t get is when limited talent actors are nominated or even win having a lot of great actors that never been nominated.
Honestly i don´t think Renée Zellweger will win again (If the movie would be starring by Judy Davis would it be perfect). Even when i´m not a fan of Scarlett Johansson it would be great to finally watch her nominated.
if Sandler’s performance is worthy, I have NO problems with him getting the buzz. The issue of big stars in oscar/prestige films being automatically in the conversation applies to virtually all big stars (Streep, Kidman, Pitt, Dicaprio, Blanchett) even if there are less famous actors and actresses delivering equal or better work elsewhere. It is annoying but is what it is.
MDA - an issue with the existaence of this movie. We do not need a new take on The Joker every other fucking year. I'm so exhausted by everyone's limitless enthusiasm to hear the same story over and over again when there's so much quality work every year that's original and people dont seem to care. it's making me bonkers.
This could be a his & hers year, Driver and Johansson. I love his & hers years.
Obviously I have not seen The Joker and I have tried not to read the reviews to see the movie without having 100% knowledge of what will happen but I understand (maybe I am wrong) that it is very different from other movies about Joker. It even looks more like a movie like Taxi Driver or The King of Comedy.
Obviously what I have most expectation is to see the performance of Joaquin Phoenix (Go Joaquin)
Nat are you ok this post and responses are coming over a bit harsh.
Driver & Johansson being nominated (and win) for MARRIAGE STORY would be so perfect in my perspective: the most interesting actor and actress of their generation together in Oscar gliry
@Nathaniel
And the Joker / Harley Quinn Project and the many Harley Quinn films that are announced are still missing.
That's what always happen with franchises and the reason why I don't watch all those movies.
Scar-Jo's time has come now son. You talk about your psalms! You talk about your John 3:16! Scar-Jo 3:16 means she'll fuck you up! Everyone is on the list and when it comes Oscar time, you're looking at the next Best Actress winner and that's the bottom line cause Scar-Jo says so bitch!
I'm just acting like Stone Cold Steve Austin. One of my top 5 all-time favorite wrestlers ever.
Nathaniel
That is the beauty of award season because in the end each award that is given is highly subjective. The nominations can some times be all over the place and given some actors outside the typical conversation, a chance to shine.
I totally agree with you when it comes to Emily Watson, Samantha Morton, Tilda Swinton, Kirsten Dunst, Kristen Stewart etc but they will always come back and thrill us again.
Even though Cate Blanchett does have 7 noms and 2 wins, her Bernadette movie tanked heavily. She may just may get nominated in the comedy category with the Globes
mark -- i'm fine if a bit stressed.. i didnt realize i was sounding harsh!
I have a feeling Judy will compete in the Drama category at The Globes. It is not a traditional musical per se. I am of the opinuon that movies about musicians featuring multiple musical performances should compete in the M/C categories at The Globes however.
Are you nuts? Bernadette will not be nominated for anything except Razzie awards. It's already out of theaters and was a summer dud.
This year has an ill odor to it. I can't believe anyone is talking about Adam Sandler for an Oscar, let alone sleepy Renee for playing Judy Garland.
There have been three Best Actress winners this decade whose films haven't been nominated for Best Picture:
- Streep (who had Weinstein behind her and won a career Oscar)
- Blanchett (whose film received 2 other above-the-line nominations and gave the consensus best performance of the year)
- Moore (who won a career Oscar in the category's weakest year of the decade)
Zellweger isn't winning for Judy. There's no reason to give her a second Oscar and the film's not strong enough.
Nat it was the swearing and the "driving me bonkers" line,I thought to myself he's anxious and stressed and it's coming out in the posts,please relax take a breath,it's just acting,we are all passionate about it.
@Suzanne, how do you know Renee won’t win if she gets nominated? She was once Hollywood’s IT girl and the movie is some sort of a comeback for her. There is a story somewhere there. Besides, I’ve read nothing but praises for her performance and the movie itself has not been shredded to pieces by critics.
I think we should see the movie first before passing judgment. The same with Adam Sandler. The problem is once people dislike a performer, it is very difficult to be objective.
mark -- oh i'm not stressed about the oscars and acting... my stress is always outside of loving movies :)
I’m not exited for judy either but i’m pretty sure nothing can be as bad as what bohemian rhapsody was! And renee is much better actor than malek generally !
Also jonothan pryce and timothee chalamet both are receiving really warm reviews so they are possible contenders too.
amirfahang -- i've noticed people are banking on NETFLIX being able to make *all* of their movies happen this year. I'm not sure where people are getting that confidence from. They've done well in docs and with ROMA but otherwise they haven't really shown that they can handle dominating the awards conversation with multiple films in the way say, Miramax or Fox Searchlight used to be able to do... and people are already expecting Johansson, Driver, and Streep to be nominees and that's 30% of the lead acting nominations even before you get to Netflix's other acting prospects (The King, The Irishman, The Two Popes) and the films from other distributors.
but we'll see. I'm totally curious if they'll be able to handle like 5 films and make them all big. Obviously i dont think it will be great for the health of the cinema in general since netflix is basically killing the adult audiences willingness to go to the movies which i fear will have terrible terrible long term repercussions...one of which we're already seeing: less and less diversity in what becomes a "hit" and thus what gets funded the following year.
IMHO the NetFlix films are not going to garner Oscar nods. The strategy of three weeks in a theater and then streaming on TV makes their slate seem like television movies, which they are. This includes The Irishman, The Laundromat, Marriage Story, etc.
goodbar - I don't dislike Renee. Is there a case in recent history of an actress winning a second Oscar as a result of a "comeback" campaign? Second Oscars are tough to come by, and they are usually the result of the Academy wanting to reward the film (Ali, Swank, McDormand) or to reward a career that has impressed and grown since the first Oscar (Blanchett, Day-Lewis, Washington).
No wins or nods for Renée Zellweger, thank you :)
it is time for Saoirse Ronan or Scarlett Johansson to win that Oscar
this could so easily be another boring year with Streep and a come-back-to-glory biopic performance by someone (Renee). No to all of that. Both are Oscar winners. They don't need the nods. No to Helen Mirren.
I want a lineup of non-winners only. I'd be okay with a Theron nomination only if she's brilliant.
Netflix depresses me to,I have no contract with any of the big TV/Movie people,just regular channels.
The only narrative I'm ready to co-sign is that Adam Driver is the best American actor of his generation. Been saying this for years.
“ScarJo 3:16...” *rightfully stops listening and now praying for a snub. When her undeniable role as the giving tree comes around we can talk.
Gotta echo others, remember self care Nathaniel. We can’t have you burnt out, bitter and jaded so soon.
I feel the only Netflix films that will do well are those that get decent festival exposure on cinema screens or make a splash otherwise.
I thought MARRIAGE STORY may have been too small but the strong reviews and placement at every key festival makes me think it could be nominated for Best Picture as well as acting and screenplay. A December release will keep it in the conversation longer, too. THE IRISHMAN will have a good shot simply because of all the media and other attention it will get.
The only other one I think could last the distance is THE TWO POPES, because of positive reactions and a late release. I think the others (principally THE LAUNDROMAT, DOLEMITE IS MY NAME and THE KING) will have to really become word-of-mouth and/or critical sensations to be remembered after they start streaming.
I don't think Netflix is the problem for movies. If they did not bankroll these adult films, who else would? Distributors now demand popcorn films for children and teenagers, in order to make running a movie in a movie theater profitable. This means cartoons, action films and stupid comedies. But I honestly don't see the difference anymore between a movie or a streaming event. They all seem blended so it's hard to know what should be an Emmy or an Oscar, or does it even matter anymore? The silver era of cinema is over.
Faye: If we're to assign a Gold, Silver and Bronze Age of Hollywood, like there's Gold, Silver and Bronze (and other) ages of comics? This would be my call:
Golden Age: 1917-1940.
Silver Age: 1941-1974.
Bronze Age: 1975-2000.
CGI Age: 2001-present.
Faye -- but it's all part of the conditioning that they exacerbate. They're training people to stay at home if they want adult entertainment and so now it's harder for people to go out because the movie studios (rightly) see adult dramas as losing propositions financially. It's a vicious circle... and it's definitely at least half of the audience's fault. But no one likes to hear they're to blame.
But as an intense movie person I remain dismayed when I meet people from other walks of life who have no interest in cinema. I'm shocked actually at the amount of creative intllegient people who are clearly the audiences NOT going to the cinema and when they have seen something i mention it's invariably like, i dunno, WONDER WOMAN or something. It's very depressing. Why are the audiences who are so discerning of other art forms (i'm talking theater fans and novel fans and the like) so dismissive of movies. They'll only go tthe franchise pictures and then they proclaim that movies suck. I'm like well... you're not even looking for the kind of thing you'd love!
it's so weird and unfortunate.
Interesting. I thought Golden was 1917-1960, and Silver was 1961 to 2019. I don’t know what’s next. 🙏
I only feel I can sustain a love for movies because I live in a movie town (SF). I don’t expect movies to continue though because of the ubiquitous nature of streaming. It’s inevitable but it is what it is. Festivals will continue but adult cinema is on life support.
I love the whole oscar prediction thing, it's so fun! but let's be honest. It means nothing in terms of quality and as years pass by, even Festival directors will obliged to make statements and push Oscar narratives AT their own festival. Just recently Alberto Barra (Chief of the Venice Film Festival) said that Joker is "SURE to be in the Oscar Race". I find this completely disappointing and unethical and unfair to the films that are trying to vie for an audience and that have no chance for Oscars, ever.
it's a shame that this leaves out the good performers that aren't playing ready to play the game, such as Toni Colette for Hereditary (she lives in Australia therefore doing very little campaigning) and Ralph Fiennes for Grand Budapest Hotel (as one PR person said to me why he missed out on the Oscar: he just didn't want to work). Others such as Tilda Swinton and Kirsten Dunst are on their own words not good at the game or simply don't want to. Surely Adam Sandler will be paraded around every talk show to prove that he doesn't suck anymore.
ugh
Re: McConaughey - I don't like his Oscar win, but it's ok - but I think he brought Jared Leto in on his coattails, and with that I am NOT OK.
Nathaniel - I feel you, I have a hard time understanding people who a) don't like going to the movies, and b) like movies to be comforting, familiar, and pre-packaged in a way that they never won't like it (e.g. avengers movies), rather than looking at the skill of the filmmaking or being interested in the ideas they present. I fully understand that 'comforting' and 'skillful' have an overlap on a Venn diagram, but - as an example - people who say they don't like a movie because the main character is 'unlikeable' bewilder me.
It sucks because now the critics who go to TIFF will have a chip on their shoulder and say that Renee is overrated. Or that’s how this reads anyway. Shame.