Who'll be this years' surprise snub?
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 2:46PM 
Nathaniel's final predictions will be up tomorrow morning but until then, let's talk potential snubs. Oscar nomination morning usually holds a few surprises. Sometimes, everything goes according to plan and the performers singled out by the precursors appear in their entirety but that's a rare event. We're thankful for that since the opposite would be dreadfully boring. Usually, there's one big snub like Timothée Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, Amy Adams for Arrival, Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation, Jennifer Anniston for Cake or Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips. At the last minute, they all failed to secure an expected nod.
Of this year's crop of contenders, 12 have conquered nods from the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAGs, and Critics Choice Awards. Many pundits say DiCaprio is the most vulnerable and we should never be sure about Hanks given his recent Oscar history. Still, the rest of them seem solid if not altogether locked. Unless, of course, Margot Robbie manages to upset everyone and get in for the Tarantino flick instead of Bombshell. You can never know for sure, that's the eternal truth about prognosticating.
All that said, here are those 12 contenders...
Laura Dern, MARRIAGE STORY
Leonardo DiCaprio, ONCE UPON A TIME... IN HOLLYWOOD
Adam Driver, MARRIAGE STORY
Tom Hanks, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Scarlett Johansson, MARRIAGE STORY
Al Pacino, THE IRISHMAN
Joe Pesci, THE IRISHMAN
Joaquin Phoenix, JOKER
Brad Pitt, ONCE UPON A TIME... IN HOLLYWOOD
Margot Robbie, BOMBSHELL
Charlize Theron, BOMBSHELL
Renée Zelwegger, JUDY
Which of these performers is likeliest to be absent on nomination morning? Whoever it is, can't wait to write about them for the new series "Almost There".
Reader Comments (63)
I said Charlize cos Bombshell actually underwhelms both crtically n commercially.
Megyn Kelly juz released a vid on her watchin Bombshell w a few o the ex victims n her husb. V interesting video!
Her husb rightfully pointed out tt Charlize got the physical transformation n down pat, but her performance is kinda one dimensional.
I tink the thick facade o makeup is actually hindering her performance as the Ice Queen.
Tom Hanks won't be in, especially when his co-star (Matthew Rhys, no nominations anywhere), played it with a range from A to B - sour, dour, sullen, sulky, simpering all throughout.
There's no way ScarJo is getting in for both actress and supporting.
Al Pacino.
Di Caprio, Robbie (cancelling herself out) and Hanks are also in danger
I could see Scarlett Johansson being a surprise snub in Best Actress. Zellweger, Theron, Nyong’o, Erivo, and Ronan would make for a plausible set of nominees in that category. Scarlett could still get in for Supporting Actress for JoJo Rabbit. Or they could snub both of her buzzy performances like they did back in ‘03.
All are in
2011 Tilda Swinton
2012 Marion Cotillard
2013 Emma Thompson
all got nominated for GG, SAG and BAFTA but didn't get the Oscar nomination.
Who I think might join the club? Theron but unlikely. The category is weak. I see Kidman as a surprise nominee.
Hanks given that the film didn’t have the expected impact and it’s not clear if there’s much love for it. I don’t think DiCaprio is a sure thing given how strong the category is this year, but I liked his performance a lot. Given the passion for the film I’m guessing he’s in.
I also think Pacino is vulnerable. Most people who I know that have seen the film aren’t exactly enraptured by it. I think Pesci is the standout and I imagine he’ll be nominated. But who knows. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Irishman got tons of nominations ... but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it got left out of more categories than anticipated.
I think everyone else is getting in. I like Robbie and she was fine in OUATIH but that nomination would be a total joke. She should get in for Bombshell. And I’d love to see some love for The Farewell, but not Awkwafina—I found her pretty unconvincing. Shuzhen would make an EXCELLENT surprise nomination, though.
sorry if this was mentioned before, but what is Leo is snubbed - but is replaced with Brad in Leading category ala Kate Winslet...... when they switched her to leading for The Reader
Who, in this world, believe Theron is vulberable.
She's a LOCK and MUST WIN OVER THAT ZELLLEMMONSUCKER!
FWIW, Bombshell has made more money at the US box office than JUDY.
Like most people, I am predicting diCaprio to miss.
I also predict Pacino will miss out (IRISHMAN, as Nathaniel has said today, feel like it is losing some steam, and therefore won't be big enough to get a double acting nom in one category).
The biggie, though, is that I predict they will name Johansson in Supporting (for JOJO RABBIT), but she will be snubbed for her leading role in MARRIAGE STORY. In fact, I am predicting MS will not get the widely expected Best Picture nom as well. (It will, I predict, get the three expected predictions (Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay) and then surprise with Alda in Supporting Actor (taking Pacino's spot), and in Score.
God I think it's Jennifer Lopez as well. I hope I am wrong. Sorry Murtada.