Who'll be this years' surprise snub?
Friday, January 10, 2020 at 2:46PM 
Nathaniel's final predictions will be up tomorrow morning but until then, let's talk potential snubs. Oscar nomination morning usually holds a few surprises. Sometimes, everything goes according to plan and the performers singled out by the precursors appear in their entirety but that's a rare event. We're thankful for that since the opposite would be dreadfully boring. Usually, there's one big snub like Timothée Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, Amy Adams for Arrival, Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation, Jennifer Anniston for Cake or Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips. At the last minute, they all failed to secure an expected nod.
Of this year's crop of contenders, 12 have conquered nods from the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAGs, and Critics Choice Awards. Many pundits say DiCaprio is the most vulnerable and we should never be sure about Hanks given his recent Oscar history. Still, the rest of them seem solid if not altogether locked. Unless, of course, Margot Robbie manages to upset everyone and get in for the Tarantino flick instead of Bombshell. You can never know for sure, that's the eternal truth about prognosticating.
All that said, here are those 12 contenders...
Laura Dern, MARRIAGE STORY
Leonardo DiCaprio, ONCE UPON A TIME... IN HOLLYWOOD
Adam Driver, MARRIAGE STORY
Tom Hanks, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Scarlett Johansson, MARRIAGE STORY
Al Pacino, THE IRISHMAN
Joe Pesci, THE IRISHMAN
Joaquin Phoenix, JOKER
Brad Pitt, ONCE UPON A TIME... IN HOLLYWOOD
Margot Robbie, BOMBSHELL
Charlize Theron, BOMBSHELL
Renée Zelwegger, JUDY
Which of these performers is likeliest to be absent on nomination morning? Whoever it is, can't wait to write about them for the new series "Almost There".
Reader Comments (63)
Aniston didn't get a BAFTA nomination for Cake, BTW. She did make the cut for SAG, Globe (Drama) and BFCA (6 nominees that year, and the other 5 were the Oscar list).
I don't get the word snub. In a year with close races, some perceived front runners might not get in but voters aren't actively voting against a certain actor - so how is it a snub?
How about the term "Oscar Surprises?"
I actually think all of these 12 are pretty solid, with I suppose DiCaprio being the most vulnerable, but ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD did peak at just the right moment for nominations (I think 1917 is going to peak at the exact right moment to actually win). In terms of surprises -- I think perceived sure bet Jennifer Lopez could be left out of supporting actress.
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess Charlize Theron, since there doesn't seem to be much passion for that movie or the performance.
I hope Hanks breaks his curse and finally gets his 6th nom.
I think they'll all make it apart from Robbie who will get in for ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD instead.
Straight up I'm predicting Theron and technically Robbie getting snubbed. The reason I'm saying Theron is really because Awkwafina is my one major wildcard choice of the acting races and I'm hoping she gets in. Robbie will probably get in for the Tarantino, so she's technically not getting snubbed, but still.
Absences: Leonardo DiCaprio and Tom Hanks. Surprise: they will include Alfre Woodard!
When is the last time an actual frontrunner has been snubbed on Oscar nomination morning? Because it feels like we're due one of those, so...could it be...Zellweger? That would be surprising—but not totally shocking—to me.
I'd say Charlize is likeliest to be snubbed - that movie didn't make money and has turned out to be kind of a critical dud.
My vote is for Tom Hanks because, obviously, his luck over the last few years despite very baity projects has been nonexistent to say the least.
Theron
Hanks
And praying for Christian Bale. He was amazing in Ford vs Ferrari
I don't think either Charlize or Margot are getting in for Bombshell. I think Margot will get in for OUATIH instead and Charlize will be replaced by Awkwafina.
The heat on Charlize really seems to have died, huh? After that initial blush of ‘she’s going to WIN’ when Bombshell premiered, she remains locked for many predictors but is anyone still talking about that performance? Personally, I hope Awkwafina gets in.
Pacino and Dicaprio
Leo, Tom, and Scarlett seem most vulnerable to me.
Sadly, even though she doesn’t quite fit this criteria, I think it’s J-Lo
Have this strong feeling that Robbie is going to get the nod for OUATIH.
I think Charlize Theron will be skipped for Bombshell. Just have a hard time seeing folks getting excited about her in it (good as she was), mostly b/c the movie itself is underwhelming. I think Saoirse Ronan gets a nod instead, as people like her and Little Women seems to have surfaced at just the right time.
I also don't care for the word "snub" as it implies a conscious omission. Remember: there's only 5 nominees in every major category except Best Picture, so by desig people are going to get left out.
If we're talking about nominations, there is no way in hell that Dern, Pitt, Phoenix or Zellweger would be snubbed.
Both Bombshell ladies could get snubbed. Margot for vote splitting and Theron keeps not getting nominated for good work. She is like the female Tom Hanks.
I also think Jennifer Lopez might get snubbed. We might be looking at a year like "hold on to your hats" 2003.
Theron and Di Caprio
I would "snub" them all if it meant making room for the Asian actors that have largely been ignored all season long give or take Awkwafina miraculously winning at the Globes.
I really don't think any of these 12 are going to miss. I think they have strong enough narratives on their own. They don't have the Chalamet/Hong Chau thing of being in a film pretty much EVERYONE hates.
I don't think Hanks has anything to worry about. There is no Tom Hanks curse because he has only missed once. In the last 20 years, Captain Phillips was the ONLY time he had a great shot of being nominated. He just has made a lot of either shitty films or non-Oscar bait films. He was never a serious part of the final pre-nomination conversation for The Post or Saving Mr. Banks. Sully kind of, but pretty sure he only got a Critics Choice and they nominate 6 or 7 per category so that doesn't mean much.
I was worried about Charlize but she hasn't missed anywhere and that category seems to be kind of weak. If I had to pick, I'd probably go with Margot Robbie because I feel like Charlize has taken the narrative on that film. But I think that category is also weak, so I think she'll probably be safe. And yet, I think that category is where there will be a big surprise. Maybe Margot, maybe someone else. It honestly wouldn't shock me if Margot got pushed out by Kidman who is secretly the hero of the film.
JENNIFER LOPEZ *cries*
QT surprise snub in the Directing category. (The only actor above to possibly get the boot is Hanks, sadly.)
Theron or Robbie
I agree with the consensus. "Bombshell" nominations are at risk, but Charlize is unrecognizable as Kelly. Without seeing the movie, folks will want to nominate her. I don't think Robbie will get a nom for "Bombshell," but perhaps for "OUATIH." Hers is the biggest question mark on this list. If she and "The Irishmen" actors were left off the final ballot, I would not be upset.
I would personally like a couple of "surprise" nominations. Mary Kay Place for "Diane," Alfre Woodard for "Clemency," or Frances Pugh for "Midsommar." I would die if Elizabeth Moss (Scientology nonsense aside) would get in for "Her Smell." There was a great think piece on her performance on this blog and it truly hit the mark.
I was not a fan of the "The Farewell." Awkwafina played a one-note annoyance. Her character is truly insufferable. Shao Shuzhen was the film's saving grace.
The one performance I'm the most passionate about is Adam Driver's. His charismatic divorcee was my personal fave of the year. I've rewatched the big marital battle scene and his "Being Alive" performance numerous times since seeing the film. He is this year's Timothee Chalamet, giving a performance that I will consider the best of the year, no matter who wins (sorry Gary Oldman).
Charlize, Margot (for Bombshell), and Tom Hanks. Awards voters are lazy, and they are less likely to watch Bombshell and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood than the other films listed here.
DiCaprio will / should make space for Egerton - which is fair.
I love Dern - she is brilliant - but I don't get the buzz for her Marriage Story character - bit annoyed that she's taking every prize home - her performance is really not that special at all ... so much more interesting choices out there... but the snub won't happen. She is the clearest lock down for Oscar - and so is Brad (both career nods - and if it happens well deserved)
I think we will be in for surprises for some asian actors ;)
Holding thumbs for Banderas & Pryce - adore the actors category this year.
Count me in for retiring the word "snub" for "omission". There are only 5 slots, so not everyone is getting in.
I think these 12 are pretty safe, but DiCaprio and Hanks just maybe might not make it.
Maybe the public hasn't warmed to Bombshell, but remember the SAG just loved it, even passing over Marriage Story to nominate it.
Please noms for the asians actors this year in that order: kong-ho song, Awkwafina, Zhao shuzen, So-dam Park, jeo-jeong jo!
And PLEASE a Nom for WOODARD!!!
Academy, make that happen, please!
I'm guessing one of the actors from The Irishman is surprisingly left off the noms.
I know he didn’t make BFCA which is why he’s not on this post but I’m not solid on Taron making it despite getting the rest.
I'm clearly not original is saying that my biggest fear for the snub is J. Lo. Even though it's arguably the best performance of the year, it's so far from an Oscar movie or an Oscar performance. I'll pray to the Oscar gods each night to make sure she gets in!
Robbie gets in for OUTIH and Charlize is snubbed.
Not a surprise for me but HANKS, it is a bland performance in a bland movie.
It would be kinda weird for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to win Best Picture and/or Best Director as well as Best Supporting Actor (Brad is a lead, it’s ridiculous people have accepted this category fraud) but Leo gets snubbed, especially after hitting GG/SAG/BAFTA.
I just worry for JLo. She’s her movie’s only shot, she’s not considered due or respected and -I’m sorry- but she’s latina. No wonder all 12 people on this list are white, and some of the best performances this year (Shuzen, Banderas, JLo) just have a harder time making it than some others apparently nobody cares about (the Bombshell ladies, etc).
I want to be wrong because I think Lopez’s is a superb performance but maybe it was just too good/weird to be true and we should have never counted on it.
ScarJo. They don't like her
I'm thinking Therom- is that movie making money?
Joe Pesci. It's the same thing ever time. He got one for that.
I agree with Charlea across the board.
In LA people are talking about Bombshell very positively. The other women in the convo for Best Actress won't push out Charlize...their films are even less liked, it seems.
I think there's a shot that Pacino doesn't get the nomination and there are surprises like Willem Dafoe or Shia LaBeouf. Not likely, but possible. The love for The Irishman comes mostly from critics, not audiences. I can barely find someone who liked it.
All the biggest snubs you cite were in films that were, at most, clear Best Picture also-rans even on the morning of the nominations.
I think OUATIH is winning or close to it in Best Picture so it'd be odd to see Leo fall out despite all the claims of him being "vulnerable." If anything, he'd be a coattails nominee squeaking through in a competitive category, not a surprise snub. The Irishman and Marriage Story are major BP contenders so I don't suspect them to fall out.
Bombshell does seem to be dying, but Charlize seems like she was too far ahead (at one point, she seemed the potential spoiler to Renée's win) for her to get a surprise snub.
I wouldn't be shocked to see JLo or Tom Hanks get the boot since they will be either the sole nominee and/or one of two nominees from their film. But in the end, I think they'll both make it, leaving the most vulnerable presumed nominee as Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit, which isn't that shocking considering the Academy's reticence to her in the past.
For me, Hanks and, the really surprise, DiCaprio. The others I see no chance.
I just don't understand how people would be rooting for Robbie in OUTIH. Her performance is mediocre and it doesn't include any wow moments. Please spare us!
I am really worried for J.Lo. Isn't it weird we were just touting her as a potential Globe WINNER and now I just have a feeling like if anyone is snubbed in supporting actress, it'll be her. Like someone said here, she is her film's only shot at a nomination. I'm hoping she pulls it off, but would not be surprised to see Shuzhen, Pugh, Kidman, or one of the Parasite ladies sneak in over her. Their films just have more buzz.
Out of these, it's definitely Hanks who has reason to be worried. I think DiCaprio and Theron are in.
I also predict Tom Hanks will not be among the nominations.
Mareko, my guess for frontrunner snub would be Leo from "Titanic" ?
I sadly think Leo and Hanks are the most vulnerable, and I really hope I'm wrong. I'm more rooting for Egerton, Hauser, and Shuzhen, and expect to be 2/3 disappointed.
I want to say Renee lmao
So I guess it's Hanks or J-Lo
I’m thinking Theron because not a single person seems excited at all about her performance. And hopefully DiCaprio because he’s so boring. Although admittedly that’s a personal basis.
I just don’t think Pesci is gonna make it in. I’ve been thinking that it’s gonna be either Deniro for Joker, Lithgow for Bombshell, or Tracy Letts for FvF.