Born in '91 Fun. Who will get an Oscar nomination first?
Thursday, July 16, 2020 at 8:21AM by Nathaniel R
It occurred to us this morning, since we're celebrating 1991 this month, that no one born in 1991 has yet been nominated for an acting Oscar! Which begs the question: who will be first among them? The following actors are all turning 30 next year and the early 30s is a GREAT time for movie star ascendancy if you have the skill and magnetism and also happen to get the opportunities and have some good luck (three of the four are required!). We narrowed it down to a dozen options for you (in random order) though of course the first to get there could be someone we haven't even heard of yet getting a late start. Make your case for which of these actors it'll be in the comments...
JOE ALWYN (The Favourite, Harriet, Mary Queen of Scots)
While he's currently arguably more famous as Taylor Swift's boyfriend, he's done a lot of good film work already with major directors. He has the chops. Now will he get the showcase prestige parts to win Oscar's love? Or is he too pretty and they'll make him wait until he's older to take him seriously. Up next: The romantic drama Last Letter From Your Lover, and an acclaimed indie's sequel The Souvenir: Part II,
ZAZIE BEETZ (Atlanta, Deadpool, Joker)
Hollywood is clearly interested at the moment... but what kinds of roles will she be offered post-Joker juggernaut. Up next: the Sundance hit Nine Days, and a journalism drama about a missing African-American girl called Still Here.
LAKEITH STANFIELD (Get Out, Sorry To Bother You, The Photograph)
He gets a lot of movie work and more than nails it each time -- we're proud to have been a fan from the very beginning (we nominated him for Best Supporting Actor right here at The Film Experience for his film debut in Short Term 12), so it feels like only a matter of time. On the other hand movie careers are difficult to maintain and you never know what's going to happen. Especially when so many actors suddenly veer to TV. Up next a supporting role in a 1970s biopic about Fred Hampton and the Black Panthers.
SHAILENE WOODLEY (Big Little Lies, Endings Beginnings)
She surely came close to an Oscar nomination as a teenager with The Descendants but her headlining career at the movies has been fairly quiet post double 2014 blockbusters (Fault in Our Stars, Divergent). Does she need another breakout supporting part to shake things up? Up next: two features in post-production the thriller Prisoner 760 and the romantic drama Last Letter From Your Lover
AUSTIN BUTLER (Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, The Dead Don't Die)
Quite honestly we did not expect him to become a headliner after having the misfortune of watching a few episodes of The Shanarra Chronicles back in 2016 but actors in bad projects sometimes prove that it was the project not them. He was eye-catching in Hollywood and if he dazzles in Baz Lurhmann's Elvis biopic (he's playing Elvis!) the sky is the limit.
O'SHEA JACKSON JR (Straight Outta Compton, Ingrid Goes West, Just Mercy)
We think he was pretty damn great in his first couple of years onscreen so the film career seems to be slow to build considering. But you never know. Up next the TV sports drama Swagger.
MENA MASSOUD (Aladdin, Reprisal)
Given what we've seen from his Aladdin nemesis Marwen Kenzari AFTER that Disney blockbuster we shouldn't hold that movie against him (Kenzari was unimpressive in that, too, and now look at him!). Perhaps Massoud has untapped range and will get another break soon? He's stated in interviews that he hasn't had offers. Perhaps it's just terrible timing since that was just last year and Hollywood fell apart promptly thereafter due to COVID-19.
DANIELLE MACDONALD (Dumplin', Unbelievable)
She's been popping up everywhere since her Patti Cake$ breakout and in all kinds of genres. She has range and casting directors obviously like her. Next up a supporting role in the Pfeiffer film French Exit. It's a weird little role and the potential for scene-stealing is there, so who knows?!
ANTHONY RAMOS (A Star is Born, Hamilton)
He's getting a lot of attention for his 2015/2016 performance in Hamilton right about now via Disney+ but the true test comes next summer when he headlines the film adaptation of Tony winning musical In the Heights.
BEN HARDY (East Enders, 6 Underground, Bohemian Rhapsody)
He looks much younger than his years and so far he's mostly been used for his impressive body (X-Men Apocalypse) or deployed quite randomly (Bohemian) but his unexpectedly charismatic supporting work in Mary Shelley and the usual stage and UK training bodes well for his longevity we think. Up next the thriller Voyeurs and the comedy Pixie.
DYLAN O'BRIEN (Maze Runner)
He was the most successful alum of Teen Wolf with his own franchise and a few side projects. Can he expand his career and range outside of just these genre and franchise pictures? He has three films in post: the thriller The Education of Fredrik Fitzell, the action comedy Monster Problems, and the sci-fi drama Infinite from director Antoine Fuqua.
PARK SO-DAM (Parasite)
It's hard to tell with breakout international actors if a) another subtitled feature of theirs will get attention and b) if they even want attention outside of stardom at home.
So... care to do any guess work about their futures?
Reader Comments (30)
I bet on Lakeith!
Woodley looks so Winslet in that photo
Lakeith and Shailene seem the most likely. Both would have been deserving for their debut supporting performances.
Danielle Macdonald and Zazie Beetz are both really talented and I hope have long career, Oscar nominations or not.
I want to second Lakeith because, damn, he's already delivered countless time artist, but if In the Heights is the critical and commercial hit that it looks like it will be, then Anthony Ramos can easily jump to the front of line.
It’s hard to believe these people are all the same age. Lakeith and Shailene seem so sharply defined (battle hardened?) while others still seem slightly unformed.
I wish they had let Lakeith Stanfield do the "white voice" in Sorry To Bother You because then he would have really gained traction as a versatile actor. I guess the movie will just have to settle for being super bizarre and wildly prescient at the same time. I vote for Lakeith getting a nom first depending on the projects available of course.
Shailene Woodley would really have to get an undeniable part or do something completely unexpected to be elevated to a "great actor" category.
The rest are a bit fuzzy. And I would think there is someone obvious from TV that we are missing.
I want to say Lakeith, but my gut says Butler.
Anthony Ramos is the safe bet here but I will always be rooting for Lakeith Stanfield. He's great in everything and he (or his agent) has impeccable taste, even if his best turns are supporting. Only a matter of time.
Lakeith and Shailene (worthy in The Descendants and The Spectacular Now) seem the most likely to me.
Ramos, Macdonald, and Jackson all seem poised to become stars and I could see them getting nominated for something down the line too.
Playing Elvis seems like a likely Oscar nomination, so I'll give it to Austin Butler.
But LaKeith Stansfield should be getting several over his career. He's terrific!
A few good options there. Lakeith would be the obvious choice and he's probably the actor I'm most confident will get a nomination at some point, but based on the next few years of projects Ramos seems a very likely bet with 'In the Heights'
Dylan O'Brien's case is a sad one, in that I think he was on the way to establishing his name, but a very bad accident on the set of the Maze Runner movies occurred and he ended up requiring a lot reconstructive surgery, not to mention the physical rehabilitation and looking out for his mental health. He took the time he needed for recovery, but that obviously stalled a lot of momentum he had going, which is too bad. I don't think he's necessarily Oscar caliber talent, but he had an enjoyably loose and engaging screen presence, when the material allowed for it.
It feels as though 2021 may have fewer Oscar-worthy titles than 2020, given that no one is filming right now, so Ramos could be a very good bet next year.
I'd give Woodley this years Supporting Emmy.Beatz is interesting she should make the most of the oppurtunities and hopefully she could reach that podium.
Lakeith is definitely the obvious answer here. I hope he keeps working. I think it'll just be a matter of time.
Re: Mena Massoud... I still maintain he had the perfect energy for ALADDIN *and* his chemistry with both Smith and Scott. THAT SAID, he was in a (little-seen and now cancelled) TV show REPRISAL and I thought he was excellent in that. I'm rooting for him hard. DItto Dylan O'Brien.
And finally, Anthony Ramos was DEFINITELY on the short/longlists for this year with IN THE HEIGHTS pre-COVID. If the movie actually comes out next year, I don't see why that would change.
Lakeith Stanfield is incredibly talented, and after hearing some interviews with him, he's a committed artist. He could easily land a Best Actor nomination if he gets something like Half Nelson.
Lakeith is the best guess.
Men's Massoud wasn't the problem in Aladdin, so I hope he gets some more opportunities.
Also, even though Joe Alwyn isn't the best actor in this bunch, he is attractive and has a solid screen presence (he was very effective in his evil role in Boy Erased). I could see him landing a nod not so much due to his skill, but given that he keeps getting cast in films with a lot of Oscar buzz, and a certain subset of directors who get a hard look by the academy have cast him in their projects. I suspect we'll see him land a golden globe nomination for something soon, and that should start paving the way, even if it's a few years/decade off.
Park So-Dam was amazing in Cinderella and Four Knights
While I'm doubting she'll ever pick up an Oscar nomination, I'll definitely be keeping an eye out on Park So-Dam's future work. She's the MVP of Parasite in my opinion.
Lakeith will join Brie and Rami in the Short Term 12 Oscars Club.
Shailene for sure. Outside of this list, I think Emma Roberts, Stacy Martin and Marine Vacth are strong possibilities.
Shailene Woodley is a terrific actress.
Joe Alwyn has been a lot of Oscar bait movies but he was not the standout. No one walked out of The Favourite, Harriet, or Boy Erased talking about him. Casting directors seem to like him and that is great but he seems destined for a SAG ensemble award.
Zazie Beets has also been in popular movies lately but unlike Alwyn, she has the second or third most important character in them. However, most people probably still recognize her from Atlanta. Will she be considered a TV actress more than a movie actress?
Lakeith Stanfield does have good taste as was commented on above, but they are not always Oscar's tastes (Get Out was an outlier) However, he does write and produce a lot of his own projects and since the writers branch is one of the more adventurous of the Academy, he may get nominated for writing before acting.
Shailene Woodley has a similar path as Scarlett Johansson- both seem like they should have been nominated a long time ago, both were part of action franchises, and both seem to keep saying at best controversial things in interviews. If Woodley gets a year like Scarlett just did she probably gets in easily.
Austin Butler is playing Elvis and if that flops we probably won't be talking about him too much.
O'Shea Jackson Jr has a great voice and hopefully does some more musicals. He seems to be moving to TV so maybe an Emmy is more likely.
Mena Moussad quite frankly is not as talented or as good looking as Naomi Scott or Marwen Kenzari. Maybe he gets more offers but Scott and Kenzari are better candidates for awards.
Danielle Macdonald, if she keeps showing range in mostly supporting roles seems a likely candidate for a career supporting actress win much later.
Anthony Ramos is having a good few years, A Star is Born, Hamilton, and now In the Heights. If anything he is a Broadway baby so he is probably a Tony winner in the future more than Oscar winner but could be both.
Ben Hardy, if he has theatre training might have a career on Broadway.
Dylan O'Brien seems like a candidate to return to TV and be successful in that genre. Emmy possibilities greater than Oscar chances.
Park So Dam is similar to Jean Dujardin. Both are very successful in their home country but then made an international hit that brought them lots of attention and acclaim. Dujardin didn't make a lot of American movies because he didn't need to. He is the biggest male celebrity in France. Park is not lacking for work in South Korea so she doesn't need to work here. Plus with the way Korea is handling covid-19 and the way our country is, she probably doesn't want to set foot on American soil in a long time.
For what it's worth:
if you're financing an indie film at the moment, irrespective of whether the [male] lead you're casting is a soldier in Iraq, a Polish transsexual, or a Mongolian shepherd discovering love, studios and financiers are guaranteed to put Joe Alwyn near the top of your shortlist. If you're the filmmaker, you actively have to argue against casting him. (Or Margo Robbie, if the lead is female.)
All of which is to say that - as this article already hints - within Hollywoodland, credits and proven talent often have little to do with actual opportunity or career momentum. Instagram, blond-ness and dating algorithms count for way more.
Also for what it's worth, out of this bunch, personally I'm rooting for Stanfield. And maybe Beetz. She's yet blow me away, but showed fab potential in High Flying Bird and other things.
I'd say one of the ladies since the Academy rarely nominates the young studs until they hit their forties. When they do nominate young guys it is usually the quirky/hot nerd types like Adrien Brody or Eddie Redmayne.
I am very excited to see MacDonald in I Am Woman, the long-awaited bio of my beloved Helen Reddy.
Ramos is going to be huge after In the Heights releases,
Butler is intriguing.
I think Stanfield will get the Oscar nom first.
Look at his fiance--Alwyn has already won.
Lakeith Stanfield, please! Shailene Woodley fits the mold for someone that will get a nom someday for sure but Lakeith might come first.
Mena Massoud is a bad actor so that is why he is not getting offers.
I want to say LAKEITH and Shailene who surprised me so much in BLL
Shailene Woodley, hopefully. She has some very interesting projects lined up; Misanthrope and Girl named Sue, which can land her a nom.
Alwynn reminds me of my ex so I don't want him to get a nomination. Massud is vegani-ish, so I'm rooting for him, but, it's unlikely.I also like Stanfield. Woodley is almost a certainty.