Let's do Globe Predictions! Why not, right?

You guys. We know we're not supposed to take them seriously and people get offended when anyone dares to admit that they totally love them. BUT the Golden Globes are enjoyable -- it's a fact. So this year we pour one out for the continually scandal-laden problematic HFPA and what might have been in a non-pandemic-cursed world. The Globes shindig is easily one of the best showbiz nites of each year but it can't possibly hold its usual excitements without all those stars of screen and television milling around drunk both during and inbetween commercial breaks. We wish Amy Poehler and Tina Fey luck at trying to make it lively without a crowd to laugh along with them. It won't be the same without the open bar (on television that is. We're stocking ours up for  sad pandemic home viewing)

Christopher already handled the TV predictions so it's my turn for the movies. After the jump, foolish predictions in all categories for this Sunday night's virtual ceremony...

PICTURE, DRAMA

• The Father
• Mank
• Nomadland
• Promising Young Woman
• Trial of the Chicago 7

will win: We think this is going to The Trial of The Chicago 7 because... well, the tide appears to be turning in its favor and it is dull enough to perfectly suit this strange waiting-around season when everyone just wants to move on to next year, presumably vaccinated and sans masks. (If you'd like to look at other predictions, the Gurus of Gold chart is also up. I am off consensus on a few things.)

might win: It's worth noting that in the last super sloppy messy Globes year --messy on the Kate Hudson/Music level we mean, so we're talking The Tourist year of 2010/2011 --  the Globes actually exhibited good taste in their winners list, opting for The Social Network over The King's Speech and The Kids Are All Right over The Tourist and Alice in Wonderland and Red (note: do not speak ill of Burlesque in our presence) so it's very possible the HFPA will recover some taste and go with Nomadland instead. 

PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY

 

• Borat
• Hamilton
• Music
• Palm Springs
• The Prom

will win: Going out a limb here since Hamilton would be soooo much like the HFPA to say that they're going to go with Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. It brings some respectable irreverence to the proceedings and Sacha Baron Cohen is definitely having a big year. We thought before the nominations that The Prom had a great shot at winning but the absence of Streep in Best Actress, Comedy suggests they didn't love it but nominated it reflexively... because musical. 

might win: Hamilton which would be very much like the Globes, both because they don't obsess over influencing or predicting the Oscar vote the way so many groups do (it's not just the Critics Choice!)

should win: Palm Springs obviously. The best romantic comedy in years.

ACTRESS DRAMA

• Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Andra Day, United States vs Billie Holliday
• Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
• Frances McDormand, Nomadland
• Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

will win: This is actually a tough call. Viola Davis' film likely lacks support (given the absence in Picture) and Andra Day and Vanessa Kirby won't be able to benefit from the Globes occassional surprise preference for fast rising stars without the usual hubbub or parties and red carpets and televised excitement. So we think it's a complete toss up between Frances and Carey. We're going to guess Carey Mulligan. 

might win: Frances McDormand. It'll be close. Remember that time there was a three-way tie? 

ACTRESS, MUSICAL/COMEDY

• Maria Bakalova, Subsequent Moviefilm
• Kate Hudson, Music
• Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
• Rosamund Pike, I Care A Lot
• Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma.

will win: We think Maria Bakalova is going to ride her season-long strong awards performance to a win here.

might win: The Globes used to REALLY love Michelle Pfeiffer and she's not a schmoozer so they loved her on her stardom and talent. But that was a long time ago and their shocking snub of her in 2002 (for a nothing performance from Cameron Diaz no less) still totally haunts us so maybe they don't love her anymore? But if she wins it won't be a total shock because they were obsessed for six consecutive years from 88-93 and the RePfeiffal has to start somewhere -- why wouldn't the Globes want credit?

ACTOR, DRAMA

• Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
• Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
• Anthony Hopkins, The Father
• Gary Oldman, Mank
• Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

will win: Going out on a limb here and choose Anthony Hopkins in The Father. That nomination in Best Picture Drama was no sure thing and makes us believe they really loved the movie. Plus he's stupendous in it and he's actually never won the Globe despite 8 nominations there (yes, he lost for Silence of the Lambs).

might win: The common wisdom is Chadwick Boseman but we're not sure the HFPA will feel drawn to a posthumous honor given the absence of a live ceremony where that sort of thing would play so beautifully (not to be crass but we believe these things do psychologically affect voters, even if its subconciously) so if it's not Hopkins or Boseman, I'm going to guess the (happy) surprise of Riz Ahmed.

ACTOR, MUSICAL OR COMEDY

• Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• James Corden, The Prom
• Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
• Dev Patel, Personal History of David Copperfield
• Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

will win: Sacha Baron Cohen. He's having a career moment.

might win: Anyone really! Lin-Manuel Miranda is the obvious alternate if they want to honor Hamilton BUT because we think Cohn is way out front we want to propose the possible shock of an Andy Samberg win.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Sacha Baron Cohen, Trial of the Chicago 7
• Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
• Jared Leto, The Little Things
• Bill Murray, On the Rocks
• Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami

will win: Yes, ANYTHING is possible as Aaron Taylor Johnson's win announced loudly in the year of Nocturnal Animals. We sense this is a tight race, if only because Sacha Baron Cohen also has an opportunity to be honored elsewhere. And given that it's a tight race we're predicting Leslie Odom Jr as a way to honor both One Night in Miami literally and Hamilton spiritually.

might win: Anyone but since the Globes aren't opposed to double wins it could well be Cohen here, too.

also can we talk about: how annoying it is that they dont have supporting awards for comedy/musical? If you're going to split the leads, split the supporting players too. More stars at your ceremony!

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

 

• Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
• Olivia Colman, The Father
• Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
• Amanda Seyfried, Mank
• Helena Zengel, News of the World

will win: I see three distinct win possibilities so a tight race. Let's say Amanda Seyfried to give Glenn Close some punditry competition later on Oscar night. Plus Globe voters like David Fincher well enough. (Also it's worth noting that the Globes don't owe Glenn Close anything and will feel no remorse about having stiffed here given the 15 nominations and 3 wins over the years)

might win: Olivia Colman if The Globes want to send a message about The Father.

DIRECTOR

• Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
• David Fincher, Mank
• Regina King, One Night in Miami
• Aaron Sorkin, the Trial of the Chicago 7
• Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

will win: Chloe Zhao. Even if the film loses Best Picture, it's tough to imagine her losing the upcoming Oscars. We think the Globes will want to be part of the coronation, as well as beating the Oscars to "two female director winners over the years" even if it's only by a month's time.

might win: David Fincher. The HFPA likes him more than the Academy does, with 4 noms and 1 win versus the 2 noms and 0 wins at the Oscars.  

SCREENPLAY

• Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
• Jack Fincher, Mank
• Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
• Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton, The Father
• Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

will win: we think Sorkin will breeze to a third Globe win here (he won previously for Social Network and Steve Jobs)

might win: ...unless Best Actress isn't enough to show their enthusiasm for Promising Young Woman and they want to announce a new favourite in Emerald Fennell.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Another Round (Denmark)
• La Llorona (Guatemala)
• The Life Ahead (Italy)
• Minari (US)
• Two of Us (France)

will win: Okay, so at the Gurus of Gold I predicted Minari and that's the sensible thing to predict but now I want to change my vote and suggest that they might not like how everyone attacked them about Minari and just go with what would have won had it not been relegated to this category: Denmark's Another Round it is. 

might win: But yes, it's probably Minari. 

SCORE

• Alexandre Desplat - Midnight Sky
• Ludwig Goransson - Tenet
• James Newton Howard - News of the World
• Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross - Mank
• Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste - Soul 

will win: The Globes only agree with the eventual Oscar choice about half the time but the Critics Awards have suggested that Soul has literally no competition in anyone's hearts this year. So Reznor and Ross to their second Globe win.... but perhaps Mank instead of Soul if they're feeling contrarian but not really.

might win: Hmmm. News of the World? 

ORIGINAL SONG

• "Fight For You" -Judas and the Black Messiah
• "Hear My Voice" -Trial of the Chicago 7
• "Io Si (Seen)" -The Life Ahead
• "Speak Now" -One Night in Miami
• "Tigress & Tweed" - United States vs Billie Holliday

will win: "Speak Now" because why not and the Globes don't mind double dipping. So step right up again, Leslie Odom Jr. Also you're the biggest star in the mix this year (it was kind of a strange year for nominations, Globe wise) in this category as they didn't embrace any mega stars like Taylor Swift or Justin Timberlake or what not. 

might win: Literally any of the other four. There aren't any household names like Madonna or Elton John in the mix this year who the Globes might default to for a TV moment so we have no idea what they might embrace. Ony "Tigress & Tweed" didn't make the Oscar finals in this category... but Globe voters really don't care about what Oscar might like in this particular category and often go their own way. So if they really love "Tigress & Tweed" that might be the winner too. You never know.

ANIMATED FEATURE

• The Croods
• Onward
• Over the Moon
• Soul
• Wolfwalkers

will win: Soul primarly because it's also nominated in Score. 

might win: Wolfwalkers. Historically the Globes are slightly less beholden to Disney/Pixar than Oscars are so this does have a decent shot at the win. 

WHAT ARE YOUR PREDICTIONS AND WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF OURS? 

Comments

[whunk]

If we go by Wikipedia, "Baron Cohen" is the full surname.

[whunk]

@Someone: I love how people act as if "the left" is some big meanie who acts in one way only to cancel everybody and everything. If you have a problem with people "cancelling" Armie Hammer, take it up with the people who do that, not "the left." You're as bad as the rest of them when you cancel "the left," aren't you?

[Luke]

I can actually clear it up on account of being a professional genealogist and having access to the UK births index - Sacha Noam Baron Cohen is his full name - Cohen is his surname and Noam and Baron are his middle names.

[NATHANIEL R]

Luke -- wow, thanks.

[Dave in Hollywood]

NPR, Wikipedia, and Deadline all use "Baron Cohen" as his last name.

[Luke]

Dave - I double checked and on the birth indexes and he actually has two entries (which is pretty irregular).

1. BARON COHEN, Sacha Noam / Hammersmith / 5b2154

2. COHEN, Sacha Noam B. / Hammersmith / 5b2154

Based on this, I agree that he should be known as Baron Cohen. From a quick search on Google it looks like his grandfather added 'Baron' to the family surname.