Will the Golden Globes Reward New Shows Again This Year?

by Christopher James 

Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will host the Golden Globes, airing on NBC on Sunday, February 28th.It’s no secret that the Golden Globes love new TV shows. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is always hoping to crown a bright newcomer on the TV landscape. This doesn’t always translate to Emmys love (sorry The Affair and Brooklyn Nine-Nine), but it’s a great way to raise the profile of a show. 

Based on the nominations, the Golden Globes are once again skewing towards new shows. On the Drama side, both Lovecraft Country and Ratched are competing for their first seasons. Meanwhile, Comedy/Musical is stacked with new series, such as Emily in Paris, The Flight Attendant, The Great and Ted Lasso. Only Schitt’s Creek is not in its first season, though this is the first time it will be competing in the Comedy Series field at the Golden Globes. Schitt's Creek is also coming off Emmy domination for its final season.

So will the copious new series dominate the Golden Globes? Let’s look at the statistics...

 The Kominski Method was the latest show to win a Series Golden Globe in its first year on the air.

New Shows That Won Best Series (2010 - 2019) - 60% of All Winners

• Boardwalk Empire (2010)

• Homeland (2011)

• The Affair (2014)

• Mr. Robot (2015)

• The Crown (2016)

• The Handmaid’s Tale (2017)

• Girls (2012)

• Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2013)

• Transparent (2014)

• Atlanta (2016)

• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (2017)

• The Kominski Method (2018)

There doesn’t seem to be any skew towards drama or comedy when it comes to rewarding new shows. Both have seen six of the last 10 winners come from freshmen series. These shows can range from seismic hits (Homeland, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) to more niche shows (Mr. Robot, The Kominski Method). Thus, any of the new shows have a chance to surprise as long as they strike the fancy of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

Only twice this decade has a show won Best Series twice (Homeland 2011 - 2012 and Glee 2009-2010). Among this year’s nominees, only The Crown is a previous winner. Both The Mandalorian and Ozark have never been nominated for Drama Series before. This doesn’t spell the end of the road for The Crown, especially since this season was perhaps its most high profile one yet. However, the Golden Globes are far less likely to repeat winners than the Emmys are. 

Gina Rodriguez won the Golden Globe for Lead Actress in a Comedy/Musical in 2014 for her role in Jane the Virgin.

New Shows That Won Best Lead Acting (2010 - 2019) - 63% of All Winners

• Steve Buscemi - Boardwalk Empire (2010)

• Kelsey Grammer - Boss (2011)

• Billy Bob Thornton - Goliath (2016)

• Sterling K. Brown - This Is Us (2017)

• Richard Madden - Bodyguard (2018)

• Brian Cox - Succession (2019)

• Don Cheadle - House of Lies (2012)

• Andy Samburg - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2013)

• Jeffrey Tambor - Transparent (2014)

• Donald Glover - Atlanta (2016)

• Michael Douglas - The Kominski Method (2018)

• Ramy Youssef - Ramy (2019)

• Claire Danes - Homeland (2011)

• Robin Wright - House of Cards (2013)

• Ruth Wilson - The Affair (2014)

• Taraji P. Henson - Empire (2015)

• Claire Foy - The Crown (2016)

• Elisabeth Moss - The Handmaid’s Tale (2017)

• Sandra Oh - Killing Eve (2018)

• Laura Linney - The Big C (2010)

• Laura Dern - Enlightened (2011)

• Lena Dunham - Girls (2012)

• Gina Rodriguez - Jane the Virgin (2014)

• Rachel Bloom - Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (2015)

• Rachel Brosnahan - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (2017)

New shows are slightly more likely to win an acting category than a series prize (63% vs. 60% likelihood). All of the four main acting categories had at least six wins for new shows, while Drama Actress had seven. This means we should see between two to three winners from various freshmen series this year.

There’s no differentiation between veteran actors and relative unknowns in these categories. As long as someone headlines a new series, they have a high chance at winning a Golden Globe. Stars like Kelsey Grammer (Boss) and Don Cheadle (House of Lies) were able to win lead acting prizes, despite their shows not earning series nominations. Meanwhile, rising stars like Ramy Youssef (Ramy), Richard Madden (Bodyguard) and Lena Dunham (Girls) all won for their breakout roles. Fame and show popularity aren’t as huge of factors at the Golden Globes (at least in the television categories). They like to plant their flag on new talent and claim discovery. This allows them to look in places the Emmys often don’t. While the Emmys have shown a negative bias against CW shows, the Golden Globes gave Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin) and Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend) back-to-back wins for CW shows. 

This year marks the first year Schitt's Creek received any Golden Globe nominations. Now, it is the leader in nominations on the Comedy side.

Nomination Leader AND Series Winner (2010 - 2019) - 60% of All Winners

• Glee (2010) - 5 Nominations and 3 Wins including Best Comedy Series

• Boardwalk Empire (2010) - 3 Nominations (tied with 3 other dramas) and 2 Wins including Best Drama Series - NEW SERIES

• Modern Family (2011) - 3 Nominations and 1 Win for Best Comedy Series

• Homeland (2012) - 4 Nominations and 3 Wins including Best Drama Series - NEW SERIES

• Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2013) - 2 Nominations (tied with all other comedy nominees) and 2 Wins including Best Comedy Series - NEW SERIES

• Mr. Robot (2015) - 3 Nominations (tied with 1 other drama) and 2 Wins including Best Drama Series - NEW SERIES

• The Crown (2016) - 3 Nominations (tied with 2 other dramas) and 2 Wins including Best Drama Series - NEW SERIES

• The Handmaid’s Tale (2017) - 3 Nominations (tied with 1 other drama) and 2 Wins including Best Drama Series - NEW SERIES

• The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (2017) - 2 Nominations (tied with all other comedy nominees) and 2 Wins including Best Comedy Series - NEW SERIES

• The Americans (2018) - 3 Nominations (tied with 1 other drama) and 1 Win for Best Drama Series

• The Kominsky Method (2018) - 3 Nominations (tied with 3 other comedies) and 2 Wins including Best Comedy Series - NEW SERIES

• Fleabag (2019) - 3 Nominations (tied with 2 other comedies) and 2 Wins including Best Comedy Series

Here is where things look rather good for the winning chances of both The Crown and Schitt’s Creek. It’s not just that they are leaders in terms of nominations. They have a commanding margin against their competitors. The Crown has six nominations, while Schitt’s Creek has five. This is unheard of in the Comedy and Drama series races, where there’s usually more competition. The only other show this past decade with six nominations was Big Little Lies, which had four wins including Best Miniseries. The Crown has the highest nomination tally for a Drama Series since ER in 1997, which had seven nominations. Other shows with five nominations were The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (2 wins), Fargo (2 wins), Game Change (3 wins) and Glee (3 wins). All of these shows won their top prize.

Even though many were angry about Emily in Paris' nominations, will the Netflix series prevail in Best Comedy Series.

Now let’s look at the new shows competing in 2020:

• Lovecraft Country (HBO) - Best Drama Series, 

• Ratched (Netflix) - Best Drama Series, Best Drama Actress (Sarah Paulson), Best Supporting Actress (Cynthia Nixon)

• Hunters (Prime Video) - Best Drama Actor (Al Pacino)

• Perry Mason (HBO) - Best Drama Actor (Matthew Rhys)

• Emily in Paris (Netflix) - Best Comedy Series, Best Comedy Actress (Lily Collins)

• The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) - Best Comedy Series, Best Comedy Actress (Kaley Cuoco)

• The Great (Hulu) - Best Comedy Series, Best Comedy Actress (Elle Fanning), Best Comedy Actor (Nicholas Hoult)

• Ted Lasso (Apple TV+) - Best Comedy Series, Best Comedy Actor (Jason Sudeikis)

• Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC) - Best Comedy Actress (Jane Levy)

Based on the statistics around nomination leaders, these new shows may face an uphill battle in the series categories. However, acting wins are surely likely. Using the 63% rate that new shows win an acting category, we can assume 2-3 winners will come from new shows. On the Drama side, the competition is lighter for Best Actor. This means the HFPA could reward a veteran (Pacino) or a marquee TV star (Rhys). Recently, the Globes gave The Americans a win for its final season, something not even the Emmys did. Residual love for The Americans could push Rhys towards a win.

For Comedy, we might also see a new series prevail in Lead Actor. Many do love The Great, specifically Nicholas Hoult’s hilariously arrogant emperor. However, the endearingly cheery Ted Lasso, led by Jason Sudeikis as the titular character, is my pick for the win; The Globes love optimism in their comedies.

Will Lead Actress go to a new show? Based on their nomination haul, Schitt’s Creek and The Crown are likely to win one or two more acting prizes a piece. Both shows are primarily anchored by their female leads - Catherine O’Hara and Olivia Colman, respectively. If they are going to rack up the wins anywhere, it is likely to be there. Among the new contenders, watch out for Sarah Paulson (Ratched). On the Comedy Actress side, voters looking to reward a new ingenue may find their votes split between Lily Collins (Emily in Paris), Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant), Elle Fanning (The Great) and Jane Levy (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist). 

Jason Sudeikis (left) contends in the Lead Actor in a Comedy/Musical for Ted Lasso on Apple TV+.Final Predictions

• Best Drama Series: The Crown (Netflix)

• Best Comedy Series: Schitt’s Creek (Pop)

• Best Actress in a Drama Series: Olivia Colman - The Crown (Netflix)

• Best Actress in a Comedy Series: Catherine O’Hara - Schitt’s Creek (Pop)

• Best Actor in a Drama Series: Matthew Rhys - Perry Mason (HBO)

• Best Actor in a Comedy Series: Jason Sudeikis - Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Who do you think is going to win the Golden Globes on the TV side? Let us know in the comments below.

Comments

[leon]

I think The Crown will win best Actress but Corrin instead Colman.

[Manuel]

Please, please don't let "Schitt's Creek" win any, ANY awards. It's an awful piece of Schitt.

[Lucky]

I agree with your predictions except that I think Schitt's Creek may be sweeping after doing it at the Emmys, and I have a feeling they'll go with Lady Di for Best Actress. If someone's gonna do it, you know it's the Globes.

[James]

I don’t expect Schitt’s Creek to dominate here. HFPA have never demonstrated a need to echo the Emmys. The Golden Globes like to celebrate fresh television that will draw a spotlight. I suspect The Flight Attendant is a better fit for their wheelhouse.

[Brevity]

What's the story with Mozart in the Jungle? All of Season 1 debuted in late December 2014 (probably after the 2015 Globes deadline) and all of Season 2 debuted in late December 2015 (probably after the 2016 Globes deadline). Then it won Best Comedy and Actor in the January 2016 ceremony. So were they awarding Season 1?

I agree that HFPA has a Shiny New Toy complex, and feel like it should extend to all first-time TV nominees, and not just those shows in their first season.

[Keegan]

I agree that they’ll go for Corrin over Colman again. This would be Olivia’s 4th Globe in 5 years.

I also wouldn’t discount Josh O Connor. I could see a Charles and Diana win.

[Fadhil]

Corrin for the win. Stoleman is getting more and more stale.
I love OHara, but it’s high time to award Cuoco.

[Luke]

I can see them going for Emily in Paris TBH.

[JW]

I think Schitt's will win Comedy but Cuoco and Sudekis will win the lead acting prizes. Though weird for The Great not to get anything. I'd prefer if Hoult won.

[Joe G]

First time nominees do incredibly well too. I'd add Mozart in the Jungle, The Americans, and Fleabag to that list. It wasn't their first seasons, but they all won the first time they were nominated.

I think Schitt's Creek takes this easily, as does Catherine O’Hara. Jason Sudekis will win as well. I have to imagine Apple will make all the right moves. The big spoiler here will be The Great, which has hot young stars, is sexy, and would allow the Globes to be the first to catapult the series into being a true awards contender after the emmys overlooked it. It's very to easy to see that show sweeping.

Olivia Colman doesn't miss at the Globes. She'll win for season 4, along with the Crown. The only possible spoiler is Jodie Comer, but no actor has one their first globe after losing in her category since Kyra Sedgwick in the mid-2000s. I think Pacino and O'Connor are battling it out for the win.

[Give Mike Leigh an Oscar!]

Ted Lasso is miles ahead in quality over that terrible Schitt’s Creek.

[Eder Arcas]

I just hope this lot wins:

Best Drama Series: OZARK - (NETFLIX)

Best Comedy Series: THE GREAT (HULU)

Best Actress in a Drama Series: LAURA LINNEY (OZARK)

Best Actress in a Comedy Series: KALEY CUOCO (THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT)

Best Actor in a Drama Series: JOSH O'CONNOR (THE CROWN)

Best Actor in a Comedy Series: ASON SUDEIKIS (TED LASSO)

PLUS: NORMAL PEOPLE , SHIRA HAAS , ETHAN HAWKE , JULIA GARNER, DONALD SUTHERLAND.

[Jamie]

Nathaniel- any thoughts on the LA Times recent article about the Golden Globes?

[JW]

And how did they sleep on Paul Mescal.

Apparently not but that’s as Golden Globe as you can get - hot young rising star and European too. Should have been the winner.

[Michael R]

Cuoco I feel is winning Actress.

[Flora]

Jamie, LA Times requires a subscription.

[Dl]

Where Colman wants to win is in Supporting Actress for The Father.

[Fadhil]

Like me though, the Globes are soooooo fetch, omahgawd!

[Patrick]

I would love to see when Colman goes 5 of 5! ;-PPP But that would never happen! ;-PPP But a 4th out of 5 is very likely I think and deservedly so!

Hope Hopkins would win his FIRST Globe! Its time and Boseman doesnt need this! And sorry, but Hopkins was better acting wise as him also!