How Often Does Best Actor Go to a Performance from a Film That Missed Best Picture?

 by Christopher James

After "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" missed Best Picture, is Chadwick Boseman's win still secure?Chadwick Boseman still stands as the frontrunner in Best Actor for his role in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. The actor gives the role of Levee, an ambitious horn player, his all and shows new sides to his towering star persona. In many ways, his win feels like the biggest slam dunk predictions heading into the Oscars on April 25th.  However, is there cause for concern now that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom missed out on Best Picture?

Jeff Bridges was the last actor to win for a movie that did not make an expanded Best Picture lineup.Best Actor only very rarely goes to a performance in a film not nominated for Best Picture. This has only happened 20 times in Oscar’s 92 year history (22% success rate). When only looking at the 22 years with expanded Best Picture fields, this number drops to only 2 winners (9% success rate). Only Fredric March (Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde) and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) managed this feat. However, March was tied for the prize with Wallace Beery from The Champ.

Looking at the 2020 Best Actor lineup, all Boseman’s fellow nominees are from Best Picture nominated films. Both Sound of Metal, The Father and Minari are riding high on a wave of strong Oscar support, which helps Riz Ahmed, Anthony Hopkins and Steven Yeun in this category. While Mank was the nomination leader with 10 nominations, it has the weakest buzz of the nominees. Gary Oldman, who won three years ago for The Darkest Hour, is likely the only actor that doesn't have a shot at winning. With a month to go, none of the three rising stars have a clear path to victory. Ahmed and Yeun would both be relatively young winners for this category. Meanwhile, Hopkins is a previous winner (for Silence of the Lambs) and there isn't an overwhelming campaign to provide him with a second win. Still, it has been 30 years since his last win, so Sony Pictures Classics could try for that narrative.

So does Best Actor line up with a Best Picture nomination more often than other acting categories?

Best Actor rarely goes to an actor in a film not nominated for Best Picture. In the Oscars’ 92 year history, this has only happened 22% of the time. This is drastically less than other acting categories, where they go to a Best Picture nominee 36-39% of the time. This gap becomes much more pronounced when looking at years with the expanded Best Picture lineup. Best Actor only went to a non-Best Picture nominee 9% of the time, versus 18-32% in other acting categories.

What is the reason for the sharp divide? It’s no secret that Oscar voters over index for being male (and white and older). This isn’t to say that a white male Oscar voter won’t vote for a female led picture. However, looking at Best Picture winners, they almost uniformly focus on stories about men. Million Dollar Baby and The Shape of Water are the only Best Picture winners since 2000 that one could argue were primarily led by women. Thus, there’s a much higher correlation between Best Actor and Best Picture than Best Actress and Best Picture.

When actors win without their film being a Best Picture nominee, they usually aren’t among so many Best Picture nominated films. When Jeff Bridges won for Crazy Heart, fellow nominees Colin Firth (A Single Man) and Morgan Freeman (Invictus) also had movies that missed out on Best Picture. The Hurt Locker’s Jeremy Renner may have been second place, but it was his breakout role and the Oscars do love to honor career milestones. Forest Whitaker won for The Last King of Scotland in a rare year when none of the Best Actor nominees starred in a Best Picture nominated film. This year, Chadwick Boseman is nominated with a group of men who are all in Best Picture nominees. The last time the only actor from a non-Best Picture nominated film beat a whole crop of actors from Best Picture nominees was in 1953 when William Holden won for Stalag 17.

Does this mean all hope is lost for Chadwick Boseman?

Hardly. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom still earned five nominations, including a Best Actress nomination for Viola Davis. This shows the film still had strong support within the Academy. Additionally, when looking at the twenty men who won Best Actor without a Best Picture nomination for their film, seven of them were arguably winning “career” Oscars. Some examples include Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), Paul Newman (The Color of Money) and John Wayne (True Grit). When stars are big enough, the Oscars will do what it can to reward them with an Oscar. As the Golden Globes demonstrated, Chadwick Boseman is one of our most famous celebrities. Due to his untimely passing, this will be their only chance to reward him with an Oscar. It’s hard to believe they will pass up that opportunity.

Take a look at the winners from non-Best Picture nominees below:

Paul Newman won his first Oscar on his eighth try for "The Color of Money."

Best Actor

• 2009 - Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2006 - Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland (all were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2001 - Denzel Washington in Training Day (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1995 - Nicholas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1993 - Tom Hanks in Philadelphia (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1990 - Jeremy Irons in Reversal of Fortune (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1987 - Michael Douglas in Wall Street (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1986 - Paul Newman in The Color of Money (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1974 - Art Carney in Harry and Tonto (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1973 - Jack Lemmon in Save the Tiger (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1969 - John Wayne in True Grit (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1968 - Cliff Robertson in Charley (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1965 - Lee Marvin in Cat Ballou (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1953 - William Holden in Stalag 17 (the only actor from a non-Best Picture nominee)

• 1951 - Humphrey Bogart in The African Queen (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1950 - José Ferrer in Cyrano de Bergerac (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1947 - Ronald Colman in A Double Life (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1931/32 - Fredric March in Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde (tied with Wallace Beery from The Champ, which was a Best Picture nominee)*

• 1930/31 - Lionel Barrymore in A Free Soul (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1927/28 - Emil Jannings in The Last Command and The Way of All Flesh (all were from non-Best Picture nominees)

Renee Zellweger won her second Oscar for playing Judy Garland in "Judy."

Best Actress

• 2019 - Renee Zellweger in Judy (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2014 - Julianne Moore in Still Alice (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2013 - Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2011 - Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2007 - Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2003 - Charlize Theron in Monster (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2001 - Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1999 - Hilary Swank in Boys Don’t Cry (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1995 - Susan Sarandon in Dead Man Walking (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1994 - Jessica Lange in Blue Sky (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1990 - Kathy Bates in Misery (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1988 - Jodie Foster in The Accused (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1985 - Geraldine Page in The Trip to Bountiful (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1982 - Meryl Streep in Sophie’s Choice (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1974 - Ellen Burstyn in Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1971 - Jane Fonda in Klute (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1970 - Glenda Jackson in Women in Love (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1969 - Maggie Smith in The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1963 - Patricia Neal in Hud (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1962 - Anne Bancroft in The Miracle Worker (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1961 - Sophia Loren in Two Women (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1960 - Elizabeth Taylor in Butterfield 8 (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1958 - Susan Hayward in I Want To Live! (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1957 - Joanne Woodward in The Three Faces of Eve (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1956 - Ingrid Bergman in Anastasia (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1953 - Shirley Booth in Come Back, Little Sheba (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1947 - Loretta Young in The Father’s Daughter (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1946 - Olivia de Havilland in To Each His Own (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1935 - Bette Davis in Dangerous (5/6 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 1932/33 - Katharine Hepburn in Morning Glory (the only nominee from a non-Best Picture nominee)*

• 1931/32 - Helen Hayes in The Sins of Madelon Claudet (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 1930/31 - Marie Dressler in Min and Bill (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1928/29 - Mary Pickford in Coquette (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

Christopher Plummer won his career Oscar for his fantastic performance in "Beginners."

Best Supporting Actor

• 2011 - Christopher Plummer in Beginners (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2008 - Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2005 - George Clooney in Syriana (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2002 - Chris Cooper in Adaptation (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2001 - Jim Broadbent in Iris (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1998 - James Coburn in Affliction (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1995 - Kevin Spacey in The Usual Suspects (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1994 - Martin Landau in Ed Wood (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1991 - Jack Palance in City Slickers (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1989 - Denzel Washington in Glory (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1988 - Kevin Kline in A Fish Called Wanda (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1987 - Sean Connery in The Untouchables (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1985 - Don Ameche in Cocoon (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1982 - Louis Gossett, Jr. in An Officer and a Gentleman (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1981 - John Gielgud in Arthur (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1979 - Melvyn Douglas in Being There (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1975 - George Burns in The Sunshine Boys (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1973 - John Houseman in The Paper Chase (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1970 - John Mills in Ryan’s Daughter (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1969 - Gig Young in They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1968 - Jack Albertson in The Subject Was Roses (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1967 - George Kennedy in Cool Hand Luke (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1966 - Walter Matthau in The Fortune Cookie (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1964 - Peter Ustinov in Topkapi (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1963 - Melvyn Douglas in Hud (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1962 - Ed Begley in Sweet Bird of Youth (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1960 - Peter Ustinov in Spartacus (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1958 - Burl Ives in The Big Country (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1956 - Anthony Quinn in Lust For Life (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1954 - Edmond O’Brien in The Barefoot Contessa (the only nominee from a non-Best Picture nominee)

• 1953 - Anthony Quinn in Viva Zapata! (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1945 - James Dunn in A Tree Grows in Brooklyn (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1942 - Van Helfin in Johnny Eager (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 1940 - Walter Brennan in The Westerner (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 1938 - Walter Brennan in Kentucky (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 1936 - Walter Brennan in Come and Get It (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

Regina King won a well deserved Oscar for her work in "If Beale Street Could Talk" in 2018.

Best Supporting Actress

• 2018 - Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk (1/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2017 - Allison Janney in I, Tonya (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2015 - Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2008 - Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2006 - Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2005 - Rachel Weisz in The Constant Gardener (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2003 - Renee Zellweger in Cold Mountain (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2000 - Marcia Gay Harden in Pollack (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1999 - Angelina Jolie in Girl, Interrupted (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1995 - Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1994 - Dianne Wiest in Bullets Over Broadway (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1992 - Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1991 - Mercedes Ruehl in The Fisher King (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1983 - Linda Hunt in The Year of Living Dangerously (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1980 - Mary Steenburgen in Melvin & Howard (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1978 - Maggie Smith in California Suite (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1975 - Lee Grant in Shampoo (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1974 - Ingrid Bergman in Murder on the Orient Express (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1973 - Tatum O’Neal in Paper Moon (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1972 - Eileen Heckart in Butterflies Are Free (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1969 - Goldie Hawn in Cactus Flower (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1968 - Ruth Gordon in Rosemary’s Baby (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1965 - Shelley Winters in A Patch of Blue (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1963 - Margaret Rutherford in The V.I.P.s (she was the only nominee from a non-Best Picture nominee)

• 1962 - Patty Duke in The Miracle Worker (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1956 - Dorothy Malone in Written on the Wind (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1955 - Jo Van Fleet in East of Eden (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1953 - Gloria Grahame in The Bad and the Beautiful (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1950 - Josephine Hull in Harvey (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1948 - Claire Trevor in Key Largo (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1945 - Anne Revere in National Velvet (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1944 - Ethel Barrymore in None But the Lonely Heart (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1941 - Mary Astor in The Great Lie (the only nominee from a non-Best Picture nominee)*

*denotes the win occurred during a year with an expanded Best Picture lineup.

Do you still think Chadwick Boseman will win Best Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom? 

Comments

[Ben]

Without a doubt, Boseman will get the Oscar.

[Eoin Daly]

Boseman is winning. I don't know why people are thinking he's not gonna win. There are plenty of other closer races to consider that we just need to accept this award is locked up

[NATHANIEL R]

Ben & Eoin -- i agree he'll win but this article was an eye opener for me. I hadn't understood how completely rare that was (i think because i assumed that Ma Rainey was getting a best picture nomination so it wouldn't have been rare at all in that case.)

[markgordonuk]

Has anyone gone back and watched his fantastic Get on Up performance.

[Paranoid Android]

Finally saw The Father, and while Chadwick's performance is great, I think Hopkins would be on his way to a second Oscar if the former hadn't sadly passed away. That would be the one unlikely shock.. Hopkins is just that powerful.

[Cash]

He'll win, both because it's a good performance and because it's a career acknowledgement. It doesn't matter that his film isn't nominated for best picture.

[JS]

This was a fantastic read!! That is all. Thanks, Christopher

[thefilmjunkie]

I'm not surprised to see how rare it is for a Best Actor to not come from a Best Picture nominee considering how much they love and over-reward stories about men, but if ever there was a year where I was certain it would happen it's this year. It's insane for the category to be as wrapped up as it is given how uncharacteristically great the nominees are this year (minus Oldman, who I think is just fine in his film).

I'd be shocked, but not really upset, if anyone beat Chadwick Boseman.

[Shmeebs]

I can see an upset for by Ahmed or Hopkins happening if love for those movies really surges (which it seems to be). If it's happening, though, I think SAG or BAFTA will tip us off first.

[Cafg]

I vote for Hopkins, he's amazing from the begining to the end of The father.
Boseman is good enough for a nomination, but his character feels too unrealistic.

[Working stiff]

Another point to consider: of the eight previous posthumous nominations in either male acting category, only two have won (29%), one lead (Peter Finch, in a Best Picture nominee), one supporting (Heath Ledger, in a non-Best Picture contender with eight nominations).

[Someone]

Boseman probably will win but he should NOT. Ahmed, Hopkins, even Oldman are SO MUCH BETTER.

[Someone]

And why exactly people should feel that they should reward him?
He isn't the cinematic legend. They didn't reward James Dean posthumously (though they had TWO such opportunities) so why should they reward Boseman?

[Working stiff]

Boseman is good enough for a nomination, but his character feels too unrealistic.

Please elaborate.

[Richter Scale]

When the nominations were announced, this stat gave me pause, not just because there are so few Best Actor winners from non-Best Picture nominees, but because the last one was 11 years ago, on the first year of the expanded category, and yes, because the Academy tends to prefer stories about male protagonists and because there are more slots to nominate them, it would stand to reason that a Best Actor winner would come from a film nominated for Best Picture. I do think Chadwick Boseman will win in the end and I'll be fine with that (he is excellent, though I do prefer Riz Ahmed and Anthony Hopkins), but it does make me think he might not be as locked as we think.

[Luc]

Somehow this makes me think of the Colman x Glose race. Everybody thought that Glose had it for sure as a career recognition, so may people felt free to vote for the performance they liked the best (Colman). Don’t know if it could happen again with Hopkins.

[Sad man]

Giving it to a white man that has already won is not a good look for the Oscars right now, even if Hopkins is much more deserving than Boseman in terms of performance. But so is Ahmed.

[Dl]

I really don't like politics being involved in choosing who wins the Oscar. Boseman's performance is lived in and there are some very well played monologues, but he'll win because of his passing and Black Lives Matter. Hopkins should have run away with every Best Actor award this season, it is a performance for the ages. I also prefer Ahmed's esoteric performance to Boseman's verbose work.

[Marshako]

@,Cagf Some what makes the performance unrealistic? Are you an expert in how 1920s blues musicians spoke and acted?

[Richter Scale]

Luc - that is a very dangerous thing to bring up in these comments sections (hahaha)...

[Motyu]

I believe Riz Ahmed will take it.

[Brandz]

Hopkins certainly deserves a second Oscar.

[Cafg]

The whole Boseman performance is good, but his storyline doesn't work for me, maybe on stage it's great, but for the screen his character seems a fantasy (the final scene).

[Dan Humphrey]

It the Academy is cold-hearted enough to snub Glenn Close for an actress nominated for the first time in a role that was arguably a supporting one, they're cold-hearted enough to say, "Oscars are for the living." I don't think Boseman's win is secure at all. I still predict he'll win, but I wouldn't put serious money on it.

[Philip H.]

Jim Broadbent's awards run for Iris truly makes no sense... ok, granted I haven't seen the film. But I just can't understand passing him up in the same category for Moulin Rouge--one of the most popular/acclaimed of the same year and a Best Picture nominee. He's so good in that.

Boseman will win bc it's their only chance to reward him, and Hopkins already won. Ahmed is def a dark horse possibility. Gary Oldman is the only one with no possibility of winning at all.

[Mike]

"I really don't like politics being involved in choosing who wins the Oscar. Boseman's performance is lived in and there are some very well played monologues, but he'll win because of his passing and Black Lives Matter."

I can't speak of Boseman's worthiness of the Oscar based on his performance in 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom' (haven't seen the film yet), but I am of the opinion that politics always influence who wins an Oscar.

If race or being deceased is not a factor, other things irrelevant to the quality of the performance do come into play. Industry popularity, campaigning, perceived dueness, age, narrative, etc.

Sometimes the Oscar does go to the most deserving nominee, but it often feels like a happy accident. Was Marion Cotillard fantastic in 'La Vie en Rose?' Yes. Did her aggressive campaigning and adherence to Oscar's preferred type of actress (young and pretty) help matters as well? Sure thing.

In short, there are political factors involved in this year's Best Actor race, but that is almost always the case. Theoretically, is losing an Oscar to someone black and dead with a critically acclaimed performance any more egregious than losing to someone who wins primarily due to their fame and hardworking publicist (such as when Jennifer Lawrence triumphed over the far superior Emmanuelle Riva and Quvenzhané Wallis in 2013)? I don't think so.

[Ryan T.]

I love, admire Boseman and thought he was great in MA RAINEY. But I would vote for Ahmed myself. I definitely see the possibility where Ahmed would pull off the win.

[Oracle]

Unfortunately this year they do.

[B. Reel]

Boseman is even more of a lock than Close! It's a year where narrative can overcome any precursor weakness or much more worthy contenders. The statistic freaks will try and poke holes in both these guaranteed victories until the envelope is opened and we have Academy Award Winners Chadwick Boseman and Glenn Close.

[NewMoonSon]

This article, while thorough and well-intentioned, ignores the pink elephant in the room: How often does a Black Best Actor nominee appear in a Best Picture nominee?

If my figures are correct: There have been 24 Black nominees in Best Actor, with Sidney Poitier and Will Smith recognized twice, Morgan Freeman three times, and Denzel Washington six.

Only 9 (just over a third) appeared in a Best Picture nominee.

Of those, only two won (Poitier/Lilies if the Field and Jamie Foxx/Ray) while two (Freeman/Driving Miss Daisy and Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave) watched their film win.

Given that Black nominees in Best Actor are less likely to appear in Best Picture nominees (and there have only been four winners in 93 years), the same stats referenced for the majority white Best Actor nominees/winners can't be used.

Do I think he will win? The industry love for him can't be ignored; after all, the man portrayed Jackie Robinson, Thurgood Marshall and James Brown (a performance that should've earned him his first nomination). But if Hopkins garners enough votes from the old guard as well as those who have/are caring for a parent with dementia, he'll be delivering a speech on April 25th.

[Jamie]

Wow! Amazing article.
What does this mean for Nomadland in Best Pic I wonder?

[Anon]

@Someone

It’s too bad Dean wasn’t nominated in the Best Supporting Actor category for Giant, he probably would’ve won.

I thought Boseman was terrific in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but I do feel he’s mainly sweeping all the Best Actor awards because of his tragic death.

[Anon]

@Someone

It’s too bad Dean wasn’t nominated in the Best Supporting Actor category for Giant, he probably would’ve won.

I thought Boseman was terrific in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but I do feel he’s mainly sweeping all the Best Actor awards because of his tragic death.

[Antoine]

Renee Zellweger got a second one that she didn't deserve just last year so what's stopping Hopkins? Not to speak of the obviously much better performance from the latter.

[John]

^No, it's going to be either Chadwick Boseman or Riz Ahmed.

[M. T.]

Christopher is right, when it comes down to it. Boseman is likely but hardly a lock. It could also go to Ahmed, Hopkins or Yeun. The only one with really no chance at all is Oldman. Christopher explained why fully. I do think this is a category that could surprise in three different ways.

Best Supporting Actress is also volatile: It could easily go to Youn Yuh-jung (with Bakalova and Seyfied as possibilities for various reasons.) The Academy will be strongly tempted to make a statement against anti-Asian racism and this would be a great place to do that. That's at least as valid as giving Close an award for a cornball performance in a hideous movie just because she's overdue. If they were going solely on the quality of the work, they'd be giving it to Coleman, and how would THAT look?

[Irvin]

"However, looking at Best Picture winners, they almost uniformly focus on stories about men. Million Dollar Baby and The Shape of Water are the only Best Picture winners since 2000 that one could argue were primarily led by women." There's also "Chicago"!

[Aaron]

I think he'll likely win - and he's very good in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - but Anthony Hopkins, like many have said, has given a performance for the ages.

Was simply floored by him The Father. That performance hits you like a ton of bricks. He's so emotionally fluid and heartbreaking. Not to even mention the insane level of technical difficulty in that role.

He'd easily be waltzing away with his second Oscar if it wasn't for Boseman. I still think he has a shot, but am still safely betting on Boseman.

I also wouldn't count Olivia Colman out yet. I know no one thinks she'll win, but she is also tremendous in The Father. If Mahershala Ali can easily sail to a second Oscar win within 2 years, why can't she?

[MO]

Ma Rainey is just another Broadway play with a bunch of people yelling at each other. It was tedious and boring, and the two lead characters were awful people. Killing someone for stepping on your new shoes is unforgivable. Yelling is not acting.

[True Glenn Fan]

B Reel is correct. Sigh.

[jules]

I can definitely see Ahmed or Hopkins winning. It's tough for me to see how Boseman compares to Bridges, Newman, or John Wayne when they were all nominated previously and elder statesmen, basically. Even Ledger and Finch were nominated before.

And Ma Rainey didn't just miss Best Picture - it missed Best Adapted Screenplay, too, for Borat and The White Tiger. There are multiple indications that the Academy just didn't take to it.

[Doug]

Love deep-dive Oscar stats content like this. Thanks for this post!

[Working stiff]

Oscar season: First you root for someone to win because of the quality of the work; then because of the “narrative” (in this case, tragic death); then despite your affection for other performances (in this case, Ahmed and Hopkins); and finally, to spite the haters. (And we still have several weeks to go...)

[Mike J.]

Great article. I don't see a scenario where Boseman fails to win. That being said, Ahmed gives such an authentic, heartbreaking performance in "Sound of Metal." He's my personal fave in this category. I also loved the understated work Hopkins does in "The Father." He's been hamming it up for years in lesser projects, but "The Two Popes" and "The Father" shows he still has tricks up his sleeve. Yeun and Oldman are just happy to be at the party, although Glenn fans can rejoice that the actor who played him is having a brilliant post-"Walking Dead" career that a barbed wire bat named Lucille can't kill.

[film]

The thinly veiled racism always manages to come out when it comes to Black front runners here.

[Anon]

@film

At least this place isn’t as bad as AwardsWatch. That site is way more racist imo.

[NATHANIEL R]

MIKE J --- i'm still torn between Ahmed, Hopkins, and Boseman. I loved all three performances. What a great Best Actor year all told! I think Boseman will obviously win and it will be a deserving win but so would Ahmed or Hopkins.

[Patrick]

It should be Hopkins, then Ahmed. I hate sentimental oscars and boseman was good, but not wothy against these masterworks. please vote at the peformances alone!

[Dan Humphrey]

I agree with you, Nathaniel. I would be more or less happy to see all three of those men win. Part of me really wants it to go to Ahmed, though. It could really help his career right at a crucial moment in it. I'm seeing people who didn't even know who he was two months ago ask me what else he's been in that I might recommend. I'd be happy if he had a starring role in three big budget, A-list films a year.

[melone]

Having seen all five nominated performances, I would rank his only 4th (ahead of only Oldman). Yes, had he not passed away, there's no way he would be a frontrunner.

It's too bad for Riz Ahmed who I think deserves the award based on performance alone.