How Often Does Best Actor Go to a Performance from a Film That Missed Best Picture?

 by Christopher James

After "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" missed Best Picture, is Chadwick Boseman's win still secure?Chadwick Boseman still stands as the frontrunner in Best Actor for his role in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. The actor gives the role of Levee, an ambitious horn player, his all and shows new sides to his towering star persona. In many ways, his win feels like the biggest slam dunk predictions heading into the Oscars on April 25th.  However, is there cause for concern now that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom missed out on Best Picture?

Jeff Bridges was the last actor to win for a movie that did not make an expanded Best Picture lineup.Best Actor only very rarely goes to a performance in a film not nominated for Best Picture. This has only happened 20 times in Oscar’s 92 year history (22% success rate). When only looking at the 22 years with expanded Best Picture fields, this number drops to only 2 winners (9% success rate). Only Fredric March (Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde) and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) managed this feat. However, March was tied for the prize with Wallace Beery from The Champ.

Looking at the 2020 Best Actor lineup, all Boseman’s fellow nominees are from Best Picture nominated films. Both Sound of Metal, The Father and Minari are riding high on a wave of strong Oscar support, which helps Riz Ahmed, Anthony Hopkins and Steven Yeun in this category. While Mank was the nomination leader with 10 nominations, it has the weakest buzz of the nominees. Gary Oldman, who won three years ago for The Darkest Hour, is likely the only actor that doesn't have a shot at winning. With a month to go, none of the three rising stars have a clear path to victory. Ahmed and Yeun would both be relatively young winners for this category. Meanwhile, Hopkins is a previous winner (for Silence of the Lambs) and there isn't an overwhelming campaign to provide him with a second win. Still, it has been 30 years since his last win, so Sony Pictures Classics could try for that narrative.

So does Best Actor line up with a Best Picture nomination more often than other acting categories?

Best Actor rarely goes to an actor in a film not nominated for Best Picture. In the Oscars’ 92 year history, this has only happened 22% of the time. This is drastically less than other acting categories, where they go to a Best Picture nominee 36-39% of the time. This gap becomes much more pronounced when looking at years with the expanded Best Picture lineup. Best Actor only went to a non-Best Picture nominee 9% of the time, versus 18-32% in other acting categories.

What is the reason for the sharp divide? It’s no secret that Oscar voters over index for being male (and white and older). This isn’t to say that a white male Oscar voter won’t vote for a female led picture. However, looking at Best Picture winners, they almost uniformly focus on stories about men. Million Dollar Baby and The Shape of Water are the only Best Picture winners since 2000 that one could argue were primarily led by women. Thus, there’s a much higher correlation between Best Actor and Best Picture than Best Actress and Best Picture.

When actors win without their film being a Best Picture nominee, they usually aren’t among so many Best Picture nominated films. When Jeff Bridges won for Crazy Heart, fellow nominees Colin Firth (A Single Man) and Morgan Freeman (Invictus) also had movies that missed out on Best Picture. The Hurt Locker’s Jeremy Renner may have been second place, but it was his breakout role and the Oscars do love to honor career milestones. Forest Whitaker won for The Last King of Scotland in a rare year when none of the Best Actor nominees starred in a Best Picture nominated film. This year, Chadwick Boseman is nominated with a group of men who are all in Best Picture nominees. The last time the only actor from a non-Best Picture nominated film beat a whole crop of actors from Best Picture nominees was in 1953 when William Holden won for Stalag 17.

Does this mean all hope is lost for Chadwick Boseman?

Hardly. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom still earned five nominations, including a Best Actress nomination for Viola Davis. This shows the film still had strong support within the Academy. Additionally, when looking at the twenty men who won Best Actor without a Best Picture nomination for their film, seven of them were arguably winning “career” Oscars. Some examples include Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), Paul Newman (The Color of Money) and John Wayne (True Grit). When stars are big enough, the Oscars will do what it can to reward them with an Oscar. As the Golden Globes demonstrated, Chadwick Boseman is one of our most famous celebrities. Due to his untimely passing, this will be their only chance to reward him with an Oscar. It’s hard to believe they will pass up that opportunity.

Take a look at the winners from non-Best Picture nominees below:

Paul Newman won his first Oscar on his eighth try for "The Color of Money."

Best Actor

• 2009 - Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2006 - Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland (all were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2001 - Denzel Washington in Training Day (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1995 - Nicholas Cage in Leaving Las Vegas (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1993 - Tom Hanks in Philadelphia (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1990 - Jeremy Irons in Reversal of Fortune (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1987 - Michael Douglas in Wall Street (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1986 - Paul Newman in The Color of Money (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1974 - Art Carney in Harry and Tonto (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1973 - Jack Lemmon in Save the Tiger (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1969 - John Wayne in True Grit (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1968 - Cliff Robertson in Charley (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1965 - Lee Marvin in Cat Ballou (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1953 - William Holden in Stalag 17 (the only actor from a non-Best Picture nominee)

• 1951 - Humphrey Bogart in The African Queen (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1950 - José Ferrer in Cyrano de Bergerac (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1947 - Ronald Colman in A Double Life (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1931/32 - Fredric March in Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde (tied with Wallace Beery from The Champ, which was a Best Picture nominee)*

• 1930/31 - Lionel Barrymore in A Free Soul (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1927/28 - Emil Jannings in The Last Command and The Way of All Flesh (all were from non-Best Picture nominees)

Renee Zellweger won her second Oscar for playing Judy Garland in "Judy."

Best Actress

• 2019 - Renee Zellweger in Judy (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2014 - Julianne Moore in Still Alice (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2013 - Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2011 - Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2007 - Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2003 - Charlize Theron in Monster (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2001 - Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1999 - Hilary Swank in Boys Don’t Cry (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1995 - Susan Sarandon in Dead Man Walking (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1994 - Jessica Lange in Blue Sky (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1990 - Kathy Bates in Misery (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1988 - Jodie Foster in The Accused (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1985 - Geraldine Page in The Trip to Bountiful (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1982 - Meryl Streep in Sophie’s Choice (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1974 - Ellen Burstyn in Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1971 - Jane Fonda in Klute (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1970 - Glenda Jackson in Women in Love (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1969 - Maggie Smith in The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1963 - Patricia Neal in Hud (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1962 - Anne Bancroft in The Miracle Worker (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1961 - Sophia Loren in Two Women (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1960 - Elizabeth Taylor in Butterfield 8 (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1958 - Susan Hayward in I Want To Live! (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1957 - Joanne Woodward in The Three Faces of Eve (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1956 - Ingrid Bergman in Anastasia (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1953 - Shirley Booth in Come Back, Little Sheba (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1947 - Loretta Young in The Father’s Daughter (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1946 - Olivia de Havilland in To Each His Own (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1935 - Bette Davis in Dangerous (5/6 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 1932/33 - Katharine Hepburn in Morning Glory (the only nominee from a non-Best Picture nominee)*

• 1931/32 - Helen Hayes in The Sins of Madelon Claudet (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 1930/31 - Marie Dressler in Min and Bill (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1928/29 - Mary Pickford in Coquette (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

Christopher Plummer won his career Oscar for his fantastic performance in "Beginners."

Best Supporting Actor

• 2011 - Christopher Plummer in Beginners (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2008 - Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2005 - George Clooney in Syriana (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2002 - Chris Cooper in Adaptation (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2001 - Jim Broadbent in Iris (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1998 - James Coburn in Affliction (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1995 - Kevin Spacey in The Usual Suspects (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1994 - Martin Landau in Ed Wood (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1991 - Jack Palance in City Slickers (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1989 - Denzel Washington in Glory (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1988 - Kevin Kline in A Fish Called Wanda (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1987 - Sean Connery in The Untouchables (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1985 - Don Ameche in Cocoon (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1982 - Louis Gossett, Jr. in An Officer and a Gentleman (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1981 - John Gielgud in Arthur (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1979 - Melvyn Douglas in Being There (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1975 - George Burns in The Sunshine Boys (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1973 - John Houseman in The Paper Chase (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1970 - John Mills in Ryan’s Daughter (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1969 - Gig Young in They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1968 - Jack Albertson in The Subject Was Roses (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1967 - George Kennedy in Cool Hand Luke (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1966 - Walter Matthau in The Fortune Cookie (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1964 - Peter Ustinov in Topkapi (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1963 - Melvyn Douglas in Hud (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1962 - Ed Begley in Sweet Bird of Youth (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1960 - Peter Ustinov in Spartacus (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1958 - Burl Ives in The Big Country (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1956 - Anthony Quinn in Lust For Life (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1954 - Edmond O’Brien in The Barefoot Contessa (the only nominee from a non-Best Picture nominee)

• 1953 - Anthony Quinn in Viva Zapata! (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1945 - James Dunn in A Tree Grows in Brooklyn (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1942 - Van Helfin in Johnny Eager (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 1940 - Walter Brennan in The Westerner (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 1938 - Walter Brennan in Kentucky (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 1936 - Walter Brennan in Come and Get It (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

Regina King won a well deserved Oscar for her work in "If Beale Street Could Talk" in 2018.

Best Supporting Actress

• 2018 - Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk (1/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2017 - Allison Janney in I, Tonya (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2015 - Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)*

• 2008 - Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2006 - Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2005 - Rachel Weisz in The Constant Gardener (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2003 - Renee Zellweger in Cold Mountain (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 2000 - Marcia Gay Harden in Pollack (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1999 - Angelina Jolie in Girl, Interrupted (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1995 - Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1994 - Dianne Wiest in Bullets Over Broadway (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1992 - Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1991 - Mercedes Ruehl in The Fisher King (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1983 - Linda Hunt in The Year of Living Dangerously (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1980 - Mary Steenburgen in Melvin & Howard (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1978 - Maggie Smith in California Suite (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1975 - Lee Grant in Shampoo (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1974 - Ingrid Bergman in Murder on the Orient Express (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1973 - Tatum O’Neal in Paper Moon (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1972 - Eileen Heckart in Butterflies Are Free (all nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1969 - Goldie Hawn in Cactus Flower (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1968 - Ruth Gordon in Rosemary’s Baby (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1965 - Shelley Winters in A Patch of Blue (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1963 - Margaret Rutherford in The V.I.P.s (she was the only nominee from a non-Best Picture nominee)

• 1962 - Patty Duke in The Miracle Worker (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1956 - Dorothy Malone in Written on the Wind (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1955 - Jo Van Fleet in East of Eden (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1953 - Gloria Grahame in The Bad and the Beautiful (4/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1950 - Josephine Hull in Harvey (2/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1948 - Claire Trevor in Key Largo (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1945 - Anne Revere in National Velvet (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1944 - Ethel Barrymore in None But the Lonely Heart (3/5 nominees were from non-Best Picture nominees)

• 1941 - Mary Astor in The Great Lie (the only nominee from a non-Best Picture nominee)*

*denotes the win occurred during a year with an expanded Best Picture lineup.

Do you still think Chadwick Boseman will win Best Actor for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom? 

Comments

[Edward L.]

Slightly off-topic, but I still think Ahmed could be a great next James Bond.

[Elazul]

Michael Douglas' win of 1987 happened because of lack of competition, right? Don't get me wrong, I like that performance and he is nowhere near the worst winners but that type of film is not something the academy usually goes for. I guess that year didn't have enough lead actors in dramatic roles (Douglas himself starred in Fatal Attraction that surely added to the win), the Golden Globes even had to move Denzel to lead. Were there really no snubs in lead actor in terms of dramatic performances that year?