Final Oscar Predictions. What a thrillingly confused year!
Friday, April 23, 2021 at 7:00PM This article was originally published in a slightly altered version at Towleroad.
by Nathaniel R
The 93rd annual Academy Awards, happening this Sunday night, will not be business as usual. Yes, there are still message movies, biopics, expertly acted dramas, and various movie stars milling about dreaming of golden statues, but otherwise things are different. We’re already in late April for one when the Oscar season is usually a distant memory. The COVID-19 pandemic has made all awards shows into Zoom meetings with breakaway rooms, considerably lowering their appeal (and ratings). It’s been ages since we’ve been able to see celebrities on red carpets, interacting with each other, and holding their trophies. Frivolous as these pleasures may be, they are missed! Nevertheless the show must go on. This year’s ceremony is doing things a bit differently — how differently we won’t know until Sunday night — including a pre-show “Oscars: Into the Spotlight” where all five Original Song contenders will be performed.
So who is going to win this year? It’s anyone’s guess. Oscar pundits agree that this is the most confusing Oscar race ever in quite a few categories. That’s exciting and potentially embarrassing for anyone who loves the guesswork. Let’s get right to the possibly terribly misguided assumptions…
PICTURE <-- the chart and our category review
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Will Win: Nomadland, Choe Zhao’s study of displaced Americans living on the road, and the grief of one drifter (Frances McDormand) who has lost her husband, home, and job.
Could Win: Trial of the Chicago 7 if Oscar voters are feeling aesthetically conservative about the celebration of their liberal values. It’s a very traditional filmmaking in the ancient courtroom drama genre.
Should Win: My heart belongs to Minari, my head to The Father, and my eyes and ears are attuned to what Sound of Metal is delivering (they all made my top ten list). But there’s just something about Nomadland that’s ineffable, brilliant, and hard to shake. The frontrunner deserves the gold. My ballot.
DIRECTOR
Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
Will Win /Should Win: Chloe Zhao has swept the precursors and is a lock to take the Oscar for Nomadland (even if it loses Best Picture). She’ll only be the second woman to ever win this prize (after Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker) and the first woman of color. My ballot.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Will Win: In the 20 years I’ve been writing about the Oscars professionally I’ve never seen a Best Actress race this tight. Usually the win is between two performers if it’s not already wrapped up for a prize-sweeping star. This time -- well, we'd kill to see the final count. Andra Day won the Globe but she's brand new and people aren't into the film, Viola Davis won the SAG but she has the least screen time of her competitors, Mulligan won the Critics Choice and the Spirit but her movie is polarizing, McDormand won the BAFTA but she's won the Oscar twice already. In the end I’m predicting McDormand assuming that half of Hollywood wishes they had her confidence and steel (given her iconoclastic ‘give no f***s’ persona) and the other half agrees she’s a great actress. Nomadland‘s prominence will give her just enough boost for voters to ignore that she already has two Best Actress Oscars.
Could Win: Nobody but Kirby would be a surprise at this point.
Should Win: They’re all so great -- if there was ever a year to root for a tie, this is it. My ballot.
Fun trivia: There are multiple ways for Oscar to make history with their choice. If Davis wins it will be the first time a Black woman has won two Oscars in any field. If Davis or Day wins it will only be the second time that a Black woman has won Best Actress (after Halle Berry for Monster’s Ball). If McDormand wins she’ll becomes the second biggest winner in this category of all time, behind only Katharine Hepburn who won Best Actress four times. (Meryl Streep and Ingrid Bergman also won three Oscars but one of each of their statues was for a supporting role)
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Youn Yuh-jung, “Minari”
Will Win: Momentum is with Youn Yuh-jung for playing the fun-loving Korean grandmother in Minari. If she wins she’ll only be the second Asian woman to take home an acting Oscar. The first was Miyoshi Umeki in Sayonara (1957).
Could Win: Glenn Close if Oscar voters are feeling guilty about stiffing her for The Wife (2018)… or Dangerous Liaisons (1988)… or Fatal Attraction (1987)… or The World According to Garp (1982). Seriously what does she have to do?!? This is her 8th nomination and if she loses she ties Peter O’Toole’s all-time record for most acting nominations without a win.
Should Win: All five of these performances are admirable (yes, even Glenn’s… it’s hard to be good in a terrible movie!) but Youn Yuh-jung please. So sayeth the Smackdown and your reader votes. My ballot.
Trivia: If Amanda Seyfried mysteriously wins the Oscar all three generations of Mamma Mia! actresses (Cher, Streep, and Seyfried) will have beaten Glenn Close to an Oscar win. Credit for this hilarious stat goes to Jorge Molina of the “Just to be Nominated” podcast.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Steven Yeun, “Minari”
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman will probably triumph, posthumously, for his electric work as a frustrated ambitious musician in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. What a talent we lost.
Could Win: In any other year Sir Anthony Hopkins might have been cruising to a second win for playing the intricate dance of confusion, anger, and loneliness of dementia in The Father. And Riz Ahmed just won the Spirit... In short, Chadwick probably isn't the lock he felt like a month ago but we still think he'll win with Ahmed and Hopkins eating into each other's support.
Should Win: I’m torn between Ahmed and Hopkins, but if you replaced Gary Oldman with Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round) or Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) this would have been one of the all time greatest Best Actor lists. My ballot.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Will Win: This category is ridiculous and deserves no careful consideration since it’s mostly leading men miscategorized as supporting players. Being a lead will always give you an advantage in the supporting category (which is why it’s so unfair). The Oscar will go to Daniel Kaluuya in a landslide as the titular messiah of Judas and the Black Messiah.
Could Win: There’s no dethroning Kaluuya who checks every single Oscar box: leading role in the supporting category, well liked previous nominee, playing a real life person, tons of “Oscar clips” and an important film.
Should Win: Career breakthrough performances are always such a joy to take the journey with. Paul Raci was brilliant delivering the grounding gut punch Riz Ahmed needed in a true supporting role as his tough love mentor in Sound of Metal.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Borat Subsequent MovieFilm”
“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“One Night in Miami”
“The White Tiger”
Will Win/ Should Win: Though the ballots don’t contain names in the craft categories (just film titles) enough voters might realize that Chloe Zhao doesn’t need four statues for one film (Nomadland) since she’s its producer, editor, director, and writer. As Oscar voting hit it seemed like finally people were talking about how strong The Father actually is. So let’s assume this is where they reward it. It’s masterfully written by Florian Zeller adapting his own Tony-nominated play with the help of Oscar winner Christopher Hampton (Dangerous Liaisons). My ballot.
Could Win: Nomadland. Prior to the nominations we assumed Kemp Powers was taking this prize for adapting his own play One Night in Miami but since the film version underperformed in nominations, it’s now a long shot.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Minari”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Will Win: This is another category that’s hard to predict. Promising Young Woman has a passionate fanbase and the British writer/director/actress Emerald Fennell won the BAFTA in this category. On the other hand Sound of Metal, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Minari all arguably overperformed in nomination tallies suggesting that voters really love these three films. When the smoke clears on this tight race we think Aaron Sorkin takes home Oscar #2 for Trial of the Chicago 7, because it’s the most “scripted” of these if not the best and the votes will be spread around to all five films.
Could Win / Should Win: Promising Young Woman which is the most audacious of these and the most original though we should note that ‘original’ in this category title isn’t referring to a fresh voice but to ‘not based on pre-existing material like a book or a play’. My ballot.
ORIGINAL SONG
“Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”
“lo Sì (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)”
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami…”.
Will Win: While “Speak Now,” beautifully written/sung by Leslie Odom Jr, is the assumed frontrunner, I’m going out on a limb here to suggest that the overall Academy love for Judas and the Black Messiah is reflected in a surprise win here for “Fight For You”
Could Win: “Speak Now”
Should Win: The only one of these songs that is actually crucial to its storytelling is “Husavik” which is both a beautiful song and an excellent send-up of Eurovision ballads. Oscar voters need to stop voting for end credits songs if they want this category to actual be about filmmaking (as the other categories actually are). That's one of the reasons we keep rooting for this song to win though we don't think it will. My ballot.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Father”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Tenet”
Will Win: Here is finally Mank‘s place to shine, given its recreations of Old Hollywood. If you haven't read it yet, you should read Daniel's piece on this particular achievement as well as his overview of this category. We look forward to his "Furniture" column every week.
Could Win: If it turns out that voters only grudgingly admire Mank, News of the World could be a surprise winner since it stunningly recreates settlements and towns of the broken hostile post Civil War era in Texas.
Should Win: Such a good category. Mank and News of the World would both make excellent winners. The Father doesn’t have a prayer of winning but the work done on the visually shifting sets is subtly mesmerizing. I am embarrassed i didn't nominated it in my own awards (what was I thinking? ah well, we all make mistakes)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Nomadland”
“Trial of the Chicago 7”
Will / Should Win: This is a tight race, presumably between Nomadland‘s magic hour landscapes and weathered faces and Mank‘s shimmery glamour. We’re going to guess Nomadland takes it…
Could Win: …but black and white movies often impress voters in the craft category so Mank could overcome the Best Picture frontrunner to win this one, too. My ballot.
Trivia note: Nomadland cinematographer Joshua James Richards is director Chloe Zhao’s partner offscreen. This is the first time romantic partners will win the Director/Cinematography Oscars together (unless there was some clandestine homosexual affair from Old Hollywood we aren’t aware of between a director and his director of photography).
COSTUME DESIGN
“Emma”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Mulan”
“Pinocchio”
Will Win/Should Win: Ann Roth, the legendary costume designer behind Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is 89 years old and still working regularly and exquisitely. We hope she wins… though the one obstacle might be the lack of variety since Ma Rainey takes place mostly on a single day so there aren’t many costume changes.
Could Win / Should Win: Emma has the advantage of “Most” costumes but they’re also fairly extraordinary and it would make a fine winner, too. Can we have a tie? My ballot.
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
“Greyhound”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
“Sound of Metal”
Will Win/Should Win: Sound of Metal’s POV sound design has won raves from its very first screenings, helping immerse the audience in what it’s like to be torn between the hearing and the deaf world. My ballot.
Could Win: The other contenders are just happy to be nominated.
ORIGINAL SCORE
“Da 5 Bloods”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
Will Win: Precursor awards of all sizes and varieties have thrown flowers at Soul and Oscar will too. This means Nine Inch Nails will now be two-time Oscar winners; Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross previously won for The Social Network‘s score. Jon Batiste shares this nomination with them.
Could Win: If there’s a shocking spoiler, perhaps News of the World sneaks in? James Newton Howard is on his ninth nomination and he’s never won.
Should Win: The great and handsome Italian composer Emile Mosseri is on the rise in Hollywood and Minari is yet another sterling example of his gifts. My ballot.
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Love and Monsters”
“The Midnight Sky”
“Mulan”
“The One and Only Ivan”
“Tenet”
Will Win: This is a bit of a tough call as no one is really talking about these movies in the absence of the usual blockbusters that populate these categories. So let’s say Tenet which at least was talked about earlier in the year.
Could Win: The industry probably did sample The Midnight Sky since it represented George Clooney sticking his toes back into the movies.
Should Win: The great LGBTQ documentary Welcome to Chechnya was on the finalist list and we’re still angry that it missed a nomination since its work to “veil” the endangered community in Russia was both groundbreaking and a humanitarian achievement. But since we can’t have that one, our heart belongs to the fun and well designed creatures of Love and Monsters. My ballot.
FILM EDITING
“The Father”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Will Win / Could Win: Sound of Metal has emerged as a soft frontrunner in this category but this is still anyone’s game. My gut says that Metal is neck and neck with Trial of the Chicago 7 and it could go either way. The latter is competently edited but doesn’t push the needle on this particular craft. That doesn’t always matter though since the whole Academy votes on the winners (whereas the individual branches vote on the nominees) and not all of them are well-versed in editing. This feels like a nailbiter to me and I fear that Trial of the Chicago 7 will take it. Argh!
Should Win: The Father does for editing what Sound of Metal does for sound, making it a crucial POV experience. My ballot.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Emma”
“Hillbilly Elegy”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Pinocchio”
Will Win: Give us Ma Rainey’s ‘Deep Moanin Blues’ and smeared greasepaint.
Could Win: The Academy sometimes ignores the “Hairstyling” part of this award but if they don’t this year, Emma and those ridiculously elaborate wigs could easily take this. I didn’t get a chance to see Pinocchio but it’s supposedly stupendous in terms of makeup.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“Another Round” – Denmark
“Better Days” – Hong Kong
“Collective” – Romania
“The Man Who Sold His Skin” – Tunisia
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” – Bosnia and Herzegovina
Will Win: Denmark is currently Oscar’s favourite foreign country in this category (Italy and France are the all time champs) being nominated very frequently for the past twelve years. This one goes to the entertaining Another Round… especially since it’s also nominated for Best Director.
Could Win: There’s a passionate fanbase for Quo Vadis Aida out there so if there’s an upset look no further.
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
“Feeling Through”
“The Letter Room”
“The Present”
“Two Distant Strangers”
“White Eye”
Will Win: The shorts categories often result in surprising winners since there’s so little conversation about them before Oscar night. It’s anyone’s guess. I suspect it will be either the sentimental groundbreaking casting of “Feeling Through” starring an actually deaf and blind actor, or “Two Distant Strangers” which combines both the currently popular subgenre of the time-loop (thanks Groundhog Day) with the #BLM movement. I'm going with the latter.
Could Win: The Letter Room stars Oscar Isaac (his wife is the director) as a prison worker assigned to handle the correspondence of the death-row inmates so if they need a little starpower, look no further.
Should Win: My favourite finalists all missed the nominations (argh!) so from what remains The Present about a Palestinian man who runs into trouble at the border while trying to buy his wife a gift is the strongest.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Onward”
“Over the Moon”
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
“Soul”
“Wolfwalkers”
Will Win: Soul has his locked up.
Should Win: Every movie made by Ireland’s Cartoon Saloon has been nominated in this category. Sadly they’ve yet to win since voters always default to Disney. Wolfwalkers is arguably the best yet from Cartoon Saloon.
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“Burrow”
“Genius Loci”
“If Anything Happens I Love You”
“Opera”
“Yes-People”
Will Win: “If Anything Happens I Love You” is the most immediately potent of these shorts and it also has the highest profile. Definitely not our favourite though.
Could Win: “Burrow” if voters want to keep it simple with a cute and funny short.
Should Win: “Opera” is incredibly stunning and strange and memorable and meant to play on loop. It’s difficult to describe but hard to forget!
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Collective”
“Crip Camp”
“The Mole Agent”
“My Octopus Teacher”
“Time”
Could Win: Anything. Crip Camp about a summer camp for disabled teens, and Time about a woman fighting for the release of her husband from prison, would make more traditional winners in this category and both have won many raves. The foreign nominees Romania’s enraging investigation Collective and Chile’s adorable, funny, and sad The Mole Agent are both well loved too. With all these critical darlings populating the category, we’re guessing the most accessible audience favourite wins out. That’d be the octopus. My Octopus Teacher is a hit on Netflix and its inspiring pretty amusing reactions online.
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
“Colette”
“A Concerto Is a Conversation”
“Do Not Split”
“Hunger Ward”
“A Love Song For Latasha”
Will Win: A Concerto is a Conversation which profiles the film composer Kris Bowers and his grandfather is life affirming and Oscar voters might want that after an exhausting year.
Could Win / Should Win: Hunger Ward, about feeding centers and exhausted healthcare workers in war torn Yeme, is the heaviest film nominated but it’s hard to shake .
WIN TOTALS?
So for those of you keeping track that's 4 wins for Nomadland, 3 for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, 2 for Trial of the Chicago 7, Soul, and Judas and the Black Messiah, and 1 each for Sound of Metal, Mank, Minari, and The Father with Promising Young Woman the only Best Picture nominee that doesn't win anything. Ouch, that can't be right. Or can it?
Are these similar to your predictions... or do you think we have major surprises in store Sunday night?
Oscars (20), Punditry
Reader Comments (48)
Nomadland is overrated. But nothing else is all that great this year anyway.
I know it's foolish for anyone to feel confident about Best Actress. But...
Ever since I saw The United States vs. Billie Holliday, I have felt confident (from only like 10 minutes in) that she is winning. I think her performance/narrative fits the best for a winner:
1) Real life person
2) Singer
3) She's an ingenue
4) She plays an incredibly sympathetic person
5) Deals with drug addiction
6) Brave with the sex scenes
7) Perfect age for winner, if maybe a little on the old side.
8) It's a transformational role
PLUS, for the first time in 10 years, a black actress has a legitimate shot at winning for the first time since Halle Berry (19 years ago!!). And I think Viola has more minuses than Andra has (small role, unlikeable character, has won before).
I honestly haven't wavered in my confidence that Andra will win in over a month (since I saw the film). She might not have everything (SAG nom, a film with more than 1 nomination) but I think she easily has more than enough to win. And with a tight race, she doesn't need as many votes as other years.
Could there possibly be a tie in Best Actress.
I really hope you're right about McDormand. I'm predicting her as well.
After seeing all the nominated films, my ballot would be like this:
Picture: Minari
Actor: Hopkins
Actress: Davis
Supporting Actor: Raci
Supporting Actress: Coleman
Director: Zhao
Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Adapted Screenplay: The Father
With that said, none of my choices are winning. Lol.
My predictions:
Nomadland
Boseman
Mulligan
Kaluuya
Close (although please let it be Yuh-Jung)
Nomadland
Trial
Here's some:
Picture: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Actress: Carey Mulligan or Andra Day
Actor: Chadwick Boseman
Support Actress:Youn Yuh-jung
Support Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
Adapted Screenplay: The Father
Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Animated: Soul
Documentary: My Octopus Teacher
Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Cinematography: Mank
I do predict they will split the winners for Picture/Director, thus my choices.
"with Promising Young Woman the only Best Picture nominee that doesn't win anything" - didn't you predict it to win for Original Screenplay?
John Ford and Arthur C. Miller?
When Hilary Swank won her second Oscar, my only complaint was that she had two leading statues before Streep did (and she even beat Streep to get her first one). So as a mega-fan of Streep, Bette Davis, Vivien Leigh and Jodie Foster (and Blanchett, for that matter), I have a hard time with McDormand joining the Hepburn/Day-Lewis club at this moment in time.
Anthony Hopkins will be an "upset"
Upthread I forgot Director: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland.
"Promising Young Woman the only Best Picture nominee that doesn't win anything"
remember that Academy member who refused to watch Never, rarely, sometimes, always? regardless of the efforts to increase the diversity, the main demographic of the Academy is still old, white, male and it's clear they have a problem with movies about women in control of their body and their choices (don't forget The Favourite lost Original screenplay to Green book), that's why i
won't be surprised at all if PWY goes empty-handed and something like Chicago 7 takes Screenplay for the reasons Nathaniel mentioned
This just in... Glenn Close didn't win Worst Supporting Actress... that award to Maddie Ziegler as Music won 3 Razzies including Worst Director to SIA and Worst Actress to Kate Hudson.
Absolute Proof (never heard of it) and its star that Pillow Guy won for Worst Picture and Worst Actor respectively. Rudy Giuliani won Worst Supporting Actor and Worst On-Screen Combo in him and his pants. 365 Days won Worst Screenplay.
Great commentary on these predictions. Best Actress is such a crazy toss-up. It really could go to any of the four.
Btw, I hope we get to see the rest of the 'Best Scenes' FILM BITCH nominees. Love those!
I think Hopkins will win. The fact that Boseman didn't win the Spirit Award with Hopkins not competing made it seem like there's a lack of passion for his performance. (I also wonder about the same factor regarding McDormand... but I get the sense that there may be a lack of passion regarding all of the Actress contenders other than Mulligan, whose fan base may or may not be large enough to win.)
Promising Young Woman can certainly go home empty-handed. Lady Bird did, and it wasn't nearly as polarizing. They don't award films about young women in the major categories.
Original Song is really tough to predict this year.
In what world is THE PRESENT better than WHITE EYE? The latter blows away everything in the category.
I'm already getting angry at the thought that people will always want to put an asterisk next to Zhao's name after she wins her two to four Oscars on Sunday night. Check back after you see DUNE, WSS, and IN THE HEIGHTS. Chances are she's still gonna be looking worthy in all categories (except maybe editing. If she wins that, okay, maybe she will have gotten an Oscar that would have gone to DUNE or WEST SIDE STORY.)
i agree with working stiff. really don't need to see Frances McDormand win a third one - especially when her first should have been Madonna's (she beat her at the Golden Globes! :) ) - or if we are sticking to actual nominated roles, Brenda Blethyn and Emily Watson were WAY better. And her second wasn't really that deserving either - soooo yeah, not really wanting to have her in the 3 club, especially when people keep lowering Ingrid and Meryl saying one of the three was in supporting - so should Katherine be lowered since one of her wins was a tie, so technically a half win??
I have Nomadland as Best Picture with Minari in second place. I learned a few years ago to consider the films that will get last place votes in the ranked voting system. Since the Academy still leans older, Netflix and Amazon titles will get sixth, seventh, and eighth place votes. Ironic, since most viewers watch the films on DVD/online screeners.
Director: Chloe Zhao
Actor: Anthony Hopkins
Actress: Audra Day
Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung
Original Screenplay: (fingers crossed) Promising Young Woman
Adapted Screenplay: The Father
Editing: Trial of the Chicago 7
Cinematography: Nomadland
Costume Design: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Hair and Makeup: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Production Design: Mank
Song: Husavik
Score: Soul
Animated Film: Soul
Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You
Documentary: My Octopus Teacher
Documentary Short: A Love Song for Latasha
Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers
International Film: Another Round
Sound: Sound of Metal
Visual Effects: Tenet
Mine!
Picture: Nomadland
Director: Chloe Zhao
Actor: Boseman
Actress: Mulligan
Supporting Actor: Kaluuya
Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung
Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Adapted Screenplay: The Father
Editing: Sound of Metal
Cinematography: Nomadland
Costume Design: Emma.
Hair and Makeup: Pinocchio
Production Design: Mank
Song: Husavik
Score: Soul
Animated Film: Soul
International Film: Another Round
Sound: Sound of Metal
Visual Effects: Tenet
Are you saying that "My Octopus Teacher" is your will win in Doc?
I forgot:
Documentary: My Octopus Teacher
(yes, even Glenn’s… it’s hard to be good in a terrible movie!)
But she only looks decent in a bad movine. Added to the fact Glenn is an always watchable icon I feel that, like most Oscar obsessives, you're subconsciouly (or you're too proud to admit anyway) bumping up the performance in your mind.
Maddie Ziegler was always going to beat Glenn Close for the Razzie since her casting in particular caused such a furor.
Karthik -- i suppose that's possible but I usually dont have trouble saying she's bad when she is. I think for instance that she had no business being nominated for Albert Nobbs or The Natural. Those are nothing performances and it's sad they didn't go for someone worthier in those years. And I do legitimately think that she was the best of the nominees with both DANGEROUS LIAISONS and THE WIFE (even though my own "Best" in both years is someone else (unnominated) so I'm bummed she doesnt have an Oscar..
Ian -- yes.
TLove - surprised to read that. I thought everyone loved Frances in Fargo. (I am as obsessed with Madonna as they come and was thrilled that she took the Globe but I'm glad Frances won the Oscar that year)
This year is the first time I'm really happy with all of the nominations and as strange as the previous year was it gave us plenty of good movies.
Nomadland, The Father, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Minari, Palm Springs, Another Round, Soul, Wolfwalkers were all great. So, I hope 2021is as diverse as the previous one.
I am myself torn between the Best Actress nominees, as all of them were great. My only complain is that Viola Davis is more of a supporting actress. Frances was heartbreaking, Carey was fierce and mesmerizing, Vanessa was revelatory, Andra - a real suprise (given the quality of the movie).
The Makeup & Hairstyling prize seems like it will be a test case for "did voters watch the nominees in this category or not?" Because I cannot believe that any person who sees Pinocchio will NOT vote for it in that category, it just blows everything else out of the water in terms of achievement (and perhaps more notably, the exact kind of achievement that generally wins this category).
The fact that Ma Rainey seems the most common prediction -- for work that frankly doesn't even come close to Pinocchio (or almost any recent winner in this category) -- seems almost entirely based on the idea that it's definitely a movie voters saw, whereas we just don't really know how many people watched a late-release/tech-only nominee like Pinocchio. But IF they did, it's winning easily, I think.
NathanielR - i just can't believe people thought she was better than Brenda in Secrets and Lies and Emily in Breaking the Waves.
It breaks my heart because I love her but Glen was indeed horrible in Hillbilly. A terrible overblown over the top kabuki poverty porn impression. If she wins for THAT I’ll be devastated.
I had a thought leading up to the Oscars this Sunday: what if the nominees for original song had to showcase their song as it is shown in the movie. In other words, the clip from the movie is shown during the ceremony and not some irrelevant live performance. A lot of songs over the rolling end credits would be so boring and embarrassing that it would put an end to many phony nominations.
This is my ballot, casting in my preferred order rather than what I think is most likely to win.
Oscars 2021 ballot
-Picture-
Winner nomadland
2 minari
3 sound
4 father
5 promising
6 mank
7 judas
8 trial
-Director-
Winner zhao
2 chung
3 fennell
4 vinterberg
5 fincher
-Actress-
Winner viola
2 vanessa
3 frances
4 andra
5 carey
-Actor-
Winner anthony
2 riz
3 chadwick
4 steven
5 gary
-S. Actress-
Winner yuh-jung
2 glenn
3 maria
4 olivia
5 amanda
-S. Actor-
Winner daniel
2 paul
3 lakeith
4 leslie
5 sacha
-A. Screenplay-
Winner nomadland
2 father
3 white
4 one
5 borat
-O. Screenplay-
Winner promising
2 sound
3 minari
4 judas
5 trial
Great list as usual Nathaniel. We agree on many points but one big one is Best Actor. You, like most others, are choosing Chadwick Boseman because “obligation” tells you so. Your real choices, Ahmed or Hopkins, are the ones you want to win. And that’s how voters pick now a days. They don’t Vote for “he’s due, he’s dead, he’s a legend”. Stallone and Close lost for those very reasons.
Anthony Hopkins bafta win was no fluke. He’s winning. He’s also 83 so if we’re going the political route, this could be his last shot too. Most if not ALL the ballots I’ve read from voters pick him. Many voters are older and can relate to what his character is dealing with more then Riz Ahmed’s Heroin addict turned deaf routine- still a great performance. Unlike Boseman, Hopkins and Boseman are in best pic nominees with much more support.
Best Actress is a true nightmare but I’m gonna stick with Day. Real life character and the fact that she won the Globe over all the other usual suspects says something.
Nomadland lacks passion. It seems to be respected but not WOW like are past best pic nominees have proven. So I think you were right to keep putting Trial of Chicago 7 in your runner up status. It’s much more watchable and conventional, something recent top winners have been. Not to mention big flashy ensemble. Nomadland is essentially Frances McDormand in a camper looking sullen.
FINAL PREDICTIONS:
Best Picture- Trial of Chicago 7
Best Director - Nomadland
Best Actor- Anthony Hopkins
Best Actress- Andra Day
Best Supporting Actor- Daniel Kaluuya
Best Supporting Actress- Minari Grandma (can’t remember how to spell her name )
Best Adaptation: The Father
Best Screenplay: Trial of Chicago 7 ( Aaron Sorkin is so popular as a writer his name gets plastered on the poster like an Actor. That is telling to me.)
I'm really hoping for a Minari upset in Best Picture. I think Actress is between Davis and Day. Actor is surely going to Hopkins.
Imagine if Tandy gave the exact same performance as Close. Nathaniel would tear it apart and personally bankroll the Razzie campaign haha. We all have actresses we shrug away their dreck. Close just joins Pfeiffer for you, fair enough.
John is right about Glenn's performance. It's a great litmus test of who's a general actressexual and who is a true Glenn fan. Nathaniel cut far too much slack to join us in the latter category. Still fingers crossed she loses this year, Youn Yuh-jung's awards performance has made it plausible that the Oscars don't Oscar this one up!
I was thinking Davis but I’m now shifting to McDormand. Just don’t know. It’s insane.
But there’s no way Boseman is losing.
Kaluuya and YJY got this.
Great predictions, and the logic of lots of these feel right. In the impossible to call Best Actress race I’m also giving an edge to McDormand.
I’m predicting Husavik for Best Song though. I don’t think a single non-American voter isn’t going to take the chance to vote for a parody Eurovision song with an affectionate smile (Eurovision is bigger than the Super Bowl in terms of international viewers). I also think it was a big early lockdown tonic of a throwaway movie, and people won’t forget that when they see a list of end credits songs.
I’m definitely not quite ready to make this my official prediction, but the weird thought occurred to me that Viola could definitely still win Best Actress and Chadwick at this point could conceivably lose Best Actor, which would be an unexpected twist from the initial narrative this season. I wouldn’t say that’s likely to happen, but it’s possible.
And on the other hand, they could easily both win, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom stands a chance at leading the total wins this year despite it missing a Best Picture nomination (Actor, Actress, Costume Design, Makeup/Hairstyling are all within reach, and no other film including Nomadland is guaranteed 4 wins).
Such an exciting year! I'll be on the edge of my seat for the acting awards minus S. Actor (and S. Actress is looking like Youn's to lose). Actor and especially Actress I see the path for multiple nominees. Love races like this
Greg F - I wish every year was like this.
Good read! I watched all of the BP and acting nominees, and if I had a ballot I would go with
BP - The Father
BD - Zhao, Nomadland
Actor - Riz Ahmed
Actress - Mulligan
Supporting Actor - Raci
Supporting Actress - Yuh joung Youn!!!
Original Screenplay - PYW
Adapted Screenplay - The Father
When assessing the best of the year, I always find it helpful to ask, could anyone else have given this performance and done it as well? Close was good in Hillbilly Elegy, but it's easy to imagine Margo Martindale, Tyne Daly, Dale Dickey, Ann Dowd, etc. giving just as strong a performance.
It's tough, by contrast, to imagine any other actress bringing the blend of grit, humor, and consternation Candice Bergen brought to Let Them All Talk. Bergen has been delivering in supporting roles in movies (good movies and some really bad movies) for years now - it's too bad her tour de force this year wasn't recognized with a nomination.
impartial Observer -- lol. funny, but Glenn Close is nowhere even remotely close to Pfeiffer in my personal hierarchy. I think Glenn can be all over the place. she's given lousy performances, utterly transcendent ones, and everything in between. She's not a personal cherished actress (wouldn't make my top 40 of all time for instance) . But i do think it's ridiculous that she doesn't have an Oscar.
Jules -- i can only assume people didnt like that movie very much because in some years that was the classic kind of performance that gets noticed.
robUk -- i so hope you're right.
Edwin -- that would be so weird if Viola won but not Chadwick. It would be quite something if Ma Rainey wins the most oscars!
I love how unpredictable so many categories are this year. The only 100% locks to me are Zhao, Yuh-jung and Kaluuya. Actress is literally a 4-way toss-up (I mentally flipped a coin and predicted Davis), and I def can see Hopkins upsetting Boseman (though I stuck w/ Boseman). I only pray that Trial doesn't somehow upset to take BP - that would be yet another triumph of mediocrity, ala A Beautiful Mind or Gladiator. Let's hope it doesn't happen.
It would be hilarious if Viola gets a Best Lead Actress for a supporting role after getting a Best Supporting Actress for a lead role.
Has it been discussed that the Supporting Actress race is a Tale of Two Grannies?
(Two grannies, two daughters and a mistress...)
Excuse me, I mis-spoke earlier: You do predict that The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win Original Screenplay; Promising Young Woman was in the Could / Should category.
I am actually leaning towards Glenn Close winning but I hope she doesn't because if she does she is never getting nominated again. That Sunset Blvd movie might as well just not happen.
Just rewatched Ma Rainey's and IMO Viola is 100% co-lead. I kinda don't get the supporting argument despite limited screen time. She's in it start to finish and the entire plot revolves around her. If she went supporting THAT would be category fraud (a la Fences).
My heart is with Carey but I'd be A-OK with Viola getting her lead Oscar here. She's fantastic.
I tink alotsa pundits r overestimating Davis n underestimating Day. If anyone gonna win over Mulligan (my pick), Its Day, not Davis or McDormand.
Fyi... I kno its a super small sample, but based on the anonymous oscar ballots fr GD n Next Best Pic (11 ballots), Day n Mulligan is neck to neck w ard 5 votes each, n Hopkins edges out Boseman by one vote.
I feel like everyone is splitting hair in the Best Actress race, but the biggest upset will be actually Best Actor! 😂
At this juncture, unless Chicago 7 wins screenplay, if it doesn't, it will hav no chance o upsetting Nomadland.
I tink Nomadland will be biggest winner of the night, w 3 wins, while the rest will win one or two. I dun see a sweep o four wins
Imo,The Father will take Adapted Screenplay n a high chance o Best Actor. PYW, Original Screenplay n 🤞 Best Actress!!