Oscar Predictions: Will Best Actress be dominated by biopics yet again?
Saturday, July 31, 2021 at 9:57AM by Nathaniel R
Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin in "Respect"
We'd love not to be a broken record but until the Academy isn't, we must sing the same choppy tune: The Academy has a biopic problem. They just can't give them up and nearly always view mimicry (of various degrees) as more of an achievement than character creation from scratch. We'll never understand it exactly but it keeps reasserting its truth. So that's always where you have to begin with predictions. This year's Best Actress category has the potential to be entirely performances based on real people.
Not that it will be. There are (that we know of thus far) seven real life characters as female leading roles this season...
Jessica Chastain as Tammy Faye Bakker in "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
The ones marked by an asterisks are more traditional biopics in that they're about very famous people in which the actor will be expected to emulate that person in some way either through direct mimicry or by interpreting their spirit.
- Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye *
- Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
- Jennifer Hudson, Respect *
- Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos *
- Taylour Paige, Zola
- Dylan Penn, Flag Day
- Kristen Stewart, Spencer *
But of course there's more to acting than just playing real life people so there are MANY other possibilities for "Bests" this year which is what the extensive BEST ACTRESS CHART is for. We figured we'd lead with the biographical stuff because it always has the edge on paper which also means it has the edge in prerelease buzz before people can get excited about what the movie and the performances are actually like.
Once the movies arrive and we're all seeing them (the best part!) favourites can be chosen but until then, it's just the fun and/or agony of anticipation, speculation, and prognostication.
CURIOUSITY
For what it's worth here are the five performances I'm most personally curious about in that I either don't know what to expect and/or I'm just eager to see what the actress does with that particular role.
- Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye
- Cruz, Parallel Mothers
- Kidman, Being the Ricardos (Y'all know I looooove me some Nicole Kidman but this is a risky move. It'll either be great or terrible - somewhere in the middle seems the most unlikely, doesn't it?)
- Lawrence, Don't Look Up (Feels like she's been gone forever, correct?)
- McDormand, Tragedy of Macbeth (Can't picture her as Lady Macbeth which is why it's exciting)
CATEGORY PLACEMENT FLUIDITY
It's worth noting, now that all four acting charts are up and our first wave of predictions are complete, that category placement is always fluid. Some of the current placement on the charts is conjecture and some is confirmed. Some is just common sense that it would never occur to anyone to cheat on; Nobody is going to pretend Denzel Washington isn't the lead of Macbeth or that Gaga isn't leading House of Gucci for example.
Kiki Dunst on the set of "Power of the Dog" with director Jane Campion.
But several performers could change charts from lead to supporting or the other way around, especially for films which probably have two to three leads (I'm assuming Power of the Dog, for example, is a three lead film but have guessed two of them in supporting including Kirsten Dunst who we might see in lead instead. Hopefully she'll be campaigned in the correct category, whichever that turns out to be.)
The various distributors and awards strategists will eventually make announcements. Sometimes those strategies will change once it's easier to read the room after the fall film festivals. But category placement isn't even secure until the nominations are read as we were reminded about again last year when LaKeith Stanfield was nominated in supporting after campaigning (correctly) as a lead for Judas and the Black Messiah.
PREDICTION CHART INDEX
first wave predictions are complete
Which of the best actress competitors are you most excited about sight unseen?
Reader Comments (42)
Nicole Kidman because WTF are you up to girl? I’m curious to see…
Melissa McCarthy in Starling because she has the most wasted potential
Ruth Negga and Tess Thompson in passing because it is the most interesting film of the year.
Kirsten Dunst in Power of the Dog because she should have been nominated for Melancholia (even if i can’t decide between Her, Theron And Wiig for the win that year - and Jane Campion might be the most interesting woman working today
I would love for Jenny Ortega to get a push for THE FALLOUT but it's probably too small.
None of these performances feel like safe bets (sight unseen, of course). McDormand's actually the one that feels least likely to fall out of contention. Nervous for Stewart, who's exceptionally talented but is gonna be under insane scrutiny as Diana.
These are all solid predictions.
I never thought Natalie Portman could pull off Jackie Kennedy in a million years, but Pablo Larrain pulled an extraordinary performance out of her - so I'm cautiously optimistic about Kristen Stewart in Spencer.
Jennifer Hudson, because like you said, Oscar worships musical biopics, especially in the past few years (Freddie Mercury, Judy Garland, Billie Holiday). MGM seems confident in this film.
I'm betting Passing will be a solid, steady contender throughout the year (very social/politically relevant content, excellent source material, a well-respected actress/director at the helm and two strong actresses at the center). Penelope Cruz as the "welcome back" nomination, and I just can't see McDormand missing at this moment in time (this film appears to be A24's top priority this season).
Maybe Lady Gaga and Jessica Chastain, however I worry these two films could veer too much into camp. Emilia Jones and Olivia Colman are dark horses (maybe Kirsten Dunst too, if she's campaigned as lead, but I'm betting supporting).
I don't thinK Colman will be back.
Sheesh, not more biopics. Seems to be the easiest way to a nomination regardless of the actual performance. Taron Edgerton should fire all his PR people for missing an easy nom from Rocketman. With only the trailer to go by, for all her extraordinary vocal talents, Hudson is a weak actress but the nomination is a lock regardless. I'd rather see Dunst or Tessa Thompson get their first nominations.
Dunst
Cruz
McDormand
Lawrence
Thompson
Did we need the spoiler in the description of Gaga’s role in Gucci? I realize it’s a biopic but that doesn’t mean we all know everything about these people. :/
Is "Curiousity" meant to be a play on words or did you mean "Curiosity"?
I am curious about the performance of Alana Haim, reportedly playing Barbra Streisand opposite Bradley Cooper as Jon Peters in PTA's Soggy Bottom.
I am confident these 5 will figure in the nominee lists somewhere during the season.
Berry
Chastain
Thompson
Blanchett
Stewart.
It's Gaga and Cruz that I can't wait to see.
I think your sleeping on Halle Berry in Bruised,there's a reason it was kept back from release,Berry is due a dramatic comeback,she's still the only black lead actress winner and the film is very good according to the reviews i've read,the 20 yrs narrative she'll create will be catnip for the media
Just as I couldn't accept Taron as Elton or Rami as Freddie I can's see Hudson as Aretha either,these people were to big for an okay actor/singer to do them justice..
Nice first one !
I have the feeling they pass on Hudson (dispute THE voice) - like they did on talented Egerton...
And as you say Frances need to pull something out of the hat for another nod.
Really excited to see Cruz, Williams & Comer in the mix ! And Dunst !?
Chastain & Gaga look safest so far - hoping for some surprises.
These seem like poorly made films for television. Where is the excitement?
I think McDormand is for sure getting in, it’s one of the great female roles and the academy is besotted with her right now. Another win is out of the question but a nod absolutely.
Jennifer Hudson in no way gives me any Aretha Franklin vibes.
I'm afraid J-Hud may have to settle for a Best Original Song nod: I am getting Effie White 2 in all these trailers/clips.
Nicole looks horrid but I am curious if she can rise above the awful makeup job.
Rooting for Jessica, Gaga, Ruth, Tessa and Halle.
Here's hoping Lena Dunham wrote an amazing, challenging Lead role for Jennifer Jason Leigh in Sharp Stick and she'll come out of nowhere and prevail.
Hudson is also putting in all the needed work. Big interview with Oprah. CBS Sunday Morning this week, and a special screening for Aretha’s family in Detroit Sunday night. Aretha’s son, a major detractor for a long time, saw the film already and had high praise for Jennifer.
There have also been small screenings across the country for majority black audiences and people are loving it. Don’t sleep on Jennifer.
no Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe in BLONDE?
I'm not talking Top 5, but she's missing the complete predictions list!
WOW, are you crazy Nathaniel?
Yikes!!!!
@lala
Her movie is a 2022 title now.
@Leo
Supporting Actress is where they'd recognize her.
Oh I can see why Frances McDormand is necessary as Lady Macbeth when Denzel is Macbeth.
With what we usually see with Denzel onscreen, he is so hard to budge, never listens to women, and is always convinced that he is right.
An immovable object like that needs an irresistible force of an actress like McDormand to budge Macbeth out of his thane comfort zone.
Renee Zellweger and Andra Day just reinforced that the movie doesn't even have to be good; if the performance garners praise on its own despite the film, Hudson is a contender.
Liesl Tommy's stage work is incredible, so I hope it transfers well to the screen, but it's disappointing that one of the most exciting stage directors working today is making her screen debut with a very traditional music biopic.
Kirsten Dunst has been my fav since childhood, and she’s been longgg overdue. Somehow underrated, but that plays in her favor in the end. She was snubbed for Interview with a Vampire (maybe bc it was on the heels Ana Paquin’s young triumph, and in a much lesser movie), but was able to successfully transition that breakout into a career with legs.
She should’ve been nominated for Melancholia, but that whole Best Actress field that year was a mess.
I would love for her to be nominated in Leading bc she deserves that recognition and I feel her character is likely a lead, buttttt I feel they will push her where it’s “safer” in supporting. Unless the film is just a BONAFIDE hit, which is possible. Regardless, I’m so happy she’s in the mix.
Jennifer Hudson gives me 0% Aretha Franklin energy and maybe 15% acting ability so I’m definitely not pleased with how it’s being pushed but I would love to be proven otherwise.
I hope Halle Berry can make an Oscar comeback after twenty years!!! <3 I love her.
After seeing the Gucci trailer, I have a hard time imagining Gaga missing.
I’m pulling for both Halle and Jennifer!!
Agree that I also get 0% Aretha Franklin from JHudson. Seems like the big PR push is going overboard and negative comments will Not be accepted.
Most excited to see Berry, Cruz, Dunst and Negga (who will likely go supporting). As for J. Hud, I think the campaign keeps pushing the “Aretha picked her” detail because anyone with eyes and ears can see that she doesn’t really bring to mind of Miss Franklin. I’ll be surprised if she gets nominated.
While I would have preferred they'd cast Audra McDonald* as Aretha (instead of as her mother) and centered the film around her life in the 1990s rather than doing a typical rise-and-fall-greatest-hits biopic, I have to say that the trailer for Respect was more exciting to watch than the entire Genius: Aretha miniseries.
*her turn as Billie Holiday in Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill convinced me she can do anything
"The Academy has a biopic problem. They just can't give them up and nearly always view mimicry (of various degrees) as more of an achievement than character creation from scratch. We'll never understand it exactly but it keeps reasserting its truth."
Creative people can lack imagination in many fields and many ways. Art is subjective. A character based on a real person gives an objective point of comparison. I agree it shouldn't be a biopic bonanza in the acting categories every year, but it's easy to see how it happens.
Isn't "Being the Ricardos" an Aaron Sorkin film? He's the king of "somewhere in the middle" work, despite people acting like he's the biggest hack to ever pick up a pen or a camera in Hollywood. He's stuff is always... okay.
Jessica Chastain is the front runner for me. I think it will be hard for Hudson to get in. The competition is too hard this year
I also think that Blanchett will be placed in the lead category to increase both Collette and Mara¨s changes to be nominated in supporting
Dunst: overdue for a nomination
Chastain: respected and due for a new nom
Blanchett: if she is on fire, she will get in
Stewart: the it girl nomination
Tessa: deserving
No Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley?
The last time Guillermo del Toro made a film it secured Best Picture, Best Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor nods.
I'd argue this time around the cast is even better.
I love that Frances is playing Lady MacBeth but can she also take a little break from being nominated? lol There are so many other actors and types of performances!
Also - you're so right! Feels like forever since a JLaw movie.
Excited for literally everything. It's going to be a very competitive year no matter what!
Count me in as another who is dubious about Hudson. It feels like Chadwick Boseman in that James Brown movie. To play a superstar that big, you have to have the charisma to carry the role (or the movie has to make zillions of dollars, like Bohemian Rhapsody). Cynthia Erivo would have been a better choice, even if Genius: Aretha flopped.
I think your top 3 will be hard to budge, and I think McDormand will be in for the reason you imply - no one can predict what she'll do with the role, so whatever choices she makes will be surprising (and effective).
I need Michelle Williams and Penelope Cruz back in the Oscar race again. They're far too talented to be sidelined.
Nicole Kidman, Kristen Stewart can fill up the rest of the spots... and then McDormand for that "new Meryl Streep obligatory" spot
Creative people lose imagination / creativity when money is involved … that’s how we get biopic bonanzas. Or the endless superhero films … remakes, reboots etc. Capitalism, baby.
@jules "no one can predict what she'll do with the role, so whatever choices she makes will be surprising (and effective)."
I LOL-ed at this; are you kidding me?
she was trademark McDormand even in Nomadland (a serious independent film), the same McDormand reactions over and over again.
No one can predict what she'll do with her next role? Let me enlighten you = she'll play her next role the same way she's played all of her roles.
McDormand is vying for that Katharine Hepburn "I barely care to change my hairstyle for roles now" status
"McDormand is vying for that Katharine Hepburn "I barely care to change my hairstyle for roles now" status"
Ah yes, the argument that elaborate hairdos = acting! Cheer up, Yavor, Jared Leto is working that wig circuit, and I have feeling it'll work out for him this year.
I have a hard time seeing Frances left out if her film delivers (which it's hard to imagine it won't). However, I could see a world in which she's snubbed less so because of the performance, than because the academy feels like she's been praised by them enough in the past few years and there's good competition, a bit like Cate Blanchett missing for Benjamin Buttons in 2008.
Can I ask would you be predicting Cate if she was playing Lucille Ball instead of Nicole?
I remember when Sean Penn was seen as a lazy choice over Mickey Rourke—that was when the biopic conversation was really kicking off. In hindsight, Milk (and Penn's performance) set a MUCH higher bar than biopics have been held to in recent years.
None of these movies need to be good or cinematic in any way, though Spencer probably will be. I'm excited about Stewart, McDormand, Colman...otherwise this is a very unappealing Best Actress year. Weird because Supporting Actress has some incredible names and projects in the mix.