Tony Award Predictions. Are you watching this Sunday?

by Patrick Ball and Nathaniel R

Will SLAVE PLAY emerge as the big winner?

The first leaves of Autumn 2021 will soon fall and we're finally wrapping up the ‘19/'20 Broadway season. The long-awaited Tony Awards are here this weekend from 7-9 PM EST on Paramount+ (where they will hand out most of the statues including the acting prizes) followed by a concert celebration of sorts from 9-11 PM EST on CBS where they will hand out the final few awards. These pandemic postponed awards will be divided among a smaller slate of shows than usual, as the Broadway shutdown instituted in March of 2020 cut the eligibility window off early. Broadway shows are only now in the process of reopening. All this affected the way we awards enthusiasts are able to predict this year’s show as well. The normal circuit of precursor awards happened a year and a half ago, if they even happened at all, and final voting took place last March (!) well before any shows had reopening dates. So there isn’t much in the way of narratives or momentum to consider. But, hey, the odd and unprecedented nature of this awards cycle presents a challenge, and who doesn’t love a challenge? Follow along below as we try to make sense of it all and be sure to tune in on Sunday to see how it all pans out... 

Best Play

• Grand Horizons – Bess Wohl
• The Inheritance – Matthew Lopez
• Sea Wall/A Life – Simon Stephens and Nick Payne
• Slave Play – Jeremy O. Harris
• The Sound Inside – Adam Rapp 

A tough battle between the London import The Inheritance and the buzzy but challenging Slave Play. The Inheritance had a more muted response in New York than across the pond, however, its substantial number of wins at both The Olivier Awards and The Drama Desks mixed with an appealing mixture of both classic and timely subject matter would seem to give it the edge. But, look out for Slave Play. Jeremy O. Harris is a creative talent with a rising profile and voters hoping to vote for a piece that pushes the medium, and industry forward, will send their votes its way. But will they be enough? I think so. - PB

I don't even think this is a tough battle; Slave Play will triumph. I personally loved The Inheritance but it struggled to live up to the cross-the-pond hype (overall) and I think its two part nature didn't help as it could have trimmed a bit and  been one long play with two intermissions. - NR

Best Musical

• Jagged Little Pill
• Moulin Rouge! The Musical
• Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Both Jagged and Moulin Rouge had similar tasks, to take a celebrated property and bring it to life onstage in a way that felt new. Both received mixed reviews but were on their way to becoming hits before the shutdown. But, Jagged is the nomination leader and the source album is beloved. I think it has the edge. - PB

I think it's Jagged Little Pill (which seemed to benefit from low expectations). I feel like it has more passionate fans as a theatrical production whereas Moulin Rouge's obsessive fans are still film-derived. - NR

Tom Hiddleston in BETRAYAL

Best Revival of a Play

• Betrayal
• Frankie and Johnny in the Clair de Lune
• A Soldier's Play

A split decision. Patrick thinks this will be A Soldier's Play but I think the buzz for the actors in Betrayal will help it cross the finish line. Frankie and Johnny, a rare flop for Audra McDonald, doesn't have a chance. - NR

Book of a Musical 

• Diablo Cody – Jagged Little Pill
• John Logan – Moulin Rouge! The Musical
• Katori Hall, Frank Ketelaar, and Kees Prins – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical 

Though Jagged’s book is its most controversial element, Cody is a well-liked Oscar winner and should walk away with the prize and be halfway to the EGOT. - PB

Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics Written for the Theatre) 

• Christopher Nightingale (music) – A Christmas Carol
• Paul Englishby (music) – The Inheritance
• Fitz Patton and Jason Michael Webb (music) – The Rose Tattoo
• Lindsay Jones (music) – Slave Play
• Daniel Kluger (music) – The Sound Inside 

Because most of the season’s upcoming musicals weren’t able to open before the shutdown, for this category all five nominated scores come from Plays. Though the talented Paul Englishsby’s moody and moving work in The Inheritance is tempting, I’m thinking it’s Christopher Nightingale. A Christmas Carol has music ingrained in its DNA in a way most plays do not. - PB

Direction of a Play 

• David Cromer – The Sound Inside
• Stephen Daldry – The Inheritance
• Kenny Leon – A Soldier's Play
• Jamie Lloyd – Betrayal
• Robert O'Hara – Slave Play 

Cromer, Daldry, and Leon all have Tonys, and though Lloyd’s production of Betrayal was strongly reviewed, I’m going with O’Hara for his gutsy and vibrant staging of Slave Play. - PB

I'm guessing the name recognition of Daldry helps here and he wins again. A little something for The Inheritance since it's going to lose the big prizes. - NR

Direction of a Musical

• Phyllida Lloyd – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical
• Diane Paulus – Jagged Little Pill
• Alex Timbers – Moulin Rouge! The Musical 

If we're voting on degree of difficulty and scale, this is Timbers to lose - NR 

Lead Actor in a Play

• Ian Barford – Linda Vista 
• Andrew Burnap – The Inheritance 
• Jake Gyllenhaal – Sea Wall/A Life 
• Tom Hiddleston – Betrayal 
• Tom Sturridge – Sea Wall/A Life
• Blair Underwood – A Soldier's Play

In one of the most competitive acting categories, we’ve got veterans grappling with Hollywood stars Gyllenhaal and Hiddleston, and young talent Burnap representing a Best Play front runner. My money is on Hiddleston who did great work just as his career is hitting a peak and has remained visible through his work on the Loki Disney+ series. But a number of these guys could get some votes and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a split see Barford or Burnap take home a prize. - PB

Really really tough to call. I'm going out on quite a limb and suggest that Tom Sturridge finally collects gold, despite his co-star siphoning off some votes. Sturridge doesn't have as lauded of an onscreen career as Hiddleston and Gyllenhaal but people really love him each time out on stage. - NR

Lead Actress in a Play

• Joaquina Kalukango – Slave Play
• Laura Linney – My Name Is Lucy Barton 
• Audra McDonald – Frankie and Johnny in the Clair de Lune 
• Mary-Louise Parker – The Sound Inside

Rising talent Kalukango is representing the bigger title, and though Laura Linney, on her fifth nomination without a win (and for a solo play at that), is knocking on the door, I suspect this one goes to Parker in her celebrated Broadway return. - PB

Lead Actor in a Musical

• Aaron Tveit – Moulin Rouge! The Musical 

Because of the unusual nature of this season and its eligibility period, Moulin Rouge’s Aaron Tveit turned out to be the only nominee in this category. To be eligible for a lead acting category, a performer must be billed over the title in the opening night Playbill, or their production must petition them. Tina and Jagged, both female focused shows, chose to place their male characters in the featured category. There was one additional male actor eligible, Chris McCarrell of The Lightning Thief, but the poorly received show earned zero nominations. Now, Tveit isn’t automatically awarded the Tony, rules state he still has to receive 60% of the vote. And while Tveit is a gifted vocalist and was overdue for a nomination, this is hardly his most lauded role. Still though, he’s well liked and if only for optics alone, I say he gets it. - PB

 

Lead Actress in a Musical

• Karen Olivo – Moulin Rouge! The Musical
• Elizabeth Stanley – Jagged Little Pill 
• Adrienne Warren – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical 

Warren, an absolute fireball in the role of Tina Turner, has been knocking at the door of Broadway superstardom for a couple seasons now. And though Olivo was fabulous in Moulin Rouge, she already has a Tony and publicly left in show in solidarity with this past year’s social justice reckoning. Warren will take this one. - PB

I think this is going to two time nominee Warren as well (who won the Drama Desk Award) and surely always was going to be Warren. I'll admit I dont understand Olivo's decision to quit Moulin Rouge! The Musical in protest over the Scott Rudin scandals; Rudin had no connection whatsoever to Moulin Rouge and she has never worked with him so it would be like someone at, say, Universal or Paramount quitting their movie career over Harvey Weinstein's behavior at Miramax and the Weinstein Co. Why immolate your own career in protest of someone else's terrible behavior career somewhere else in your same general industry? Speaking out is admirable of course but quitting your own career?

Featured Actor in a Play

• Ato Blankson-Wood – Slave Play 
• James Cusati-Moyer – Slave Play 
• David Alan Grier – A Soldier's Play 
• John Benjamin Hickey – The Inheritance 
• Paul Hilton – The Inheritance 

Patrick is going with Paul Hilton here for strong work as E.M. Forster in The Inheritance but my bet is David Alan Grier who has the best role in A Soldier's Play (which many of you will know as A Soldier's Story for the 1984 film version). - NR 

Featured Actress in a Play

• Jane Alexander – Grand Horizons 
• Chalia La Tour – Slave Play 
• Annie McNamara – Slave Play 
• Lois Smith – The Inheritance 
• Cora Vander Broek – Linda Vista

Is this wishful thinking that we're predicting Lois Smith? After 11 Broadway shows and 3 Tony nominations it is long past time to honor this 90 year old brilliant veteran. Not to mention the small fact that she was absolutely incredible, taking The Inheritance to its deeply emotional finish line. - NR

Featured Actor in a Musical

• Danny Burstein – Moulin Rouge! The Musical 
• Derek Klena – Jagged Little Pill 
• Sean Allan Krill – Jagged Little Pill 
• Sahr Ngaujah – Moulin Rouge! The Musical 
• Daniel J. Watts – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

No doubt about it, this one is going to Burstein, phenomenal in the role of impresario extraordinaire Harold Zidler. - PB

Burstein in a landslide. Not only is he perfect in the production but he's long overdue to win a Tony (this is his SEVENTH nomination). He's great in everything  plus he survived a very very scary and well publicized bout with COVID-19 (Moulin Rouge was one of the hardest hit shows) so even if he hadn't earned the Tony in performance (he did) he'd have a shot on sentiment alone. - NR

Featured Actress in a Musical

• Kathryn Gallagher – Jagged Little Pill 
• Celia Rose Gooding – Jagged Little Pill 
• Robyn Hurder – Moulin Rouge! The Musical 
• Lauren Patten – Jagged Little Pill 
• Myra Lucretia Taylor – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical 

A curiously underdiscussed category this time around... but then what category isn't given the strange emptiness of the season. Patrick says Patten so I'll co-sign - NR

Best Choreography

• Sidi Larbi Cherkaoui – Jagged Little Pill
• Sonya Tayeh – Moulin Rouge! The Musical
• Anthony Van Laast – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical 

So You Think You Can Dance alum Tayeh should waltz away with this award for her vibrant and passionate work in Moulin Rouge, one of the production’s best elements. - PB

slave play

Scenic Design in a Play

• Bob Crowley – The Inheritance
• Soutra Gilmour – Betrayal
• Rob Howell – A Christmas Carol
• Derek McLane – A Soldier's Play
• Clint Ramos – Slave Play

Scenic Design in a Musical

• Riccardo Hernández and Lucy MacKinnon – Jagged Little Pill
• Derek McLane – Moulin Rouge! The Musical
• Mark Thompson and Jeff Sugg – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Best Costume Design in a Play

• Dede Ayite – Slave Play
• Dede Ayite – A Soldier's Play
• Bob Crowley – The Inheritance
• Rob Howell – A Christmas Carol
• Clint Ramos – The Rose Tattoo 

Best Costume Design in a Musical

• Emily Rebholz – Jagged Little Pill
• Mark Thompson – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical
• Catherine Zuber – Moulin Rouge! The Musical 

Best Lighting Design in a Play

• Jiyoun Chang – Slave Play
• Jon Clark – The Inheritance
• Heather Gilbert – The Sound Inside
• Allen Lee Hughes – A Soldier's Play
• Hugh Vanstone – A Christmas Carol

Image via "Out with Cameron"

Lighting Design in a Musical

• Bruno Poet – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical
• Justin Townsend – Jagged Little Pill
• Justin Townsend – Moulin Rouge! The Musical

Best Sound Design of a Play

• Paul Arditti and Christopher Reid – The Inheritance
• Simon Baker – A Christmas Carol
• Lindsay Jones – Slave Play
• Daniel Kluger – Sea Wall/A Life
• Daniel Kluger – The Sound Inside 

Sound Design in a Musical

• Jonathan Deans – Jagged Little Pill
• Peter Hylenski – Moulin Rouge! The Musical
• Nevin Steinberg – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical 

Best Orchestrations

• Tom Kitt – Jagged Little Pill
• Katie Kresek, Charlie Rosen, Matt Stine and Justin Levine – Moulin Rouge! The Musical
• Ethan Popp – Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Will you be watching and if you're near NYC when do you plan on returning to see a Broadway show? 

Comments

[Frank Zappa]

Actressexually speaking, that is a photo of Zawe Ashton (Velvet Buzzsaw, The Handmaid's Tale, Nocturnal Animals, Dreams of a Life, The Marvels) in Betrayal.

No disrespect, but I think Rebecca Luker's passing has to factor into Danny Burstein's inevitable win.

[StephenM]

Mary-Louise Parker is always great, but I'd love to see Laura Linney win a Tony.

I've thought this whole time that Moulin Rouge seemed unbeatable for Best Musical?

[Fadhil]

It feels like DECADES after the nomination was announced and it would just be cruel if they just didn't give it by default to Tveit LMFAO

Burstein had just gone through enough too. The Tony is his.

I wish all the best to Gyllenhaal, Linney, Warren, and Smith as well!

[Owl]

Here for Sea Wall/A Life and Tom Sturridge who was incredible in that play. I agree that Jake Gyllenhaal was also good but Sturridge is mesmerising and carved an unforgettable portrait of Alex, an unpackaged howl of a character.

Lauren Patten brought the house down when I saw Jagged Little Pill with her fiery 'You oughta know'. She's winning this one.

Finally, I think I'm the only one who actually likes Grand Horizons especially Jane Alexander and James Cromwell. So more power to Jane.

[Peggy Sue]

Give Lois Smith her Tony TODAY